LyrArc Article Gist
Stephen Miran is chosen as head of the DJT Council of Economic Advisers. He was senior adviser on economic policy at Treasury during the DJT first term, including economic policy during the Covid pandemic.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 80% of Ballmer's money ($150 billion -former Microsoft CEO) is in Microsoft stock and 20% in index funds. He tried investing in stocks, Colgate Palmolive at advice of Jim Cramer a college buddy. Then tried diversifying. Tried money managers and found it difficult to find ones that outperform. So he dumped them all. His approach was shaped by Warren Buffet who says put it in S&P shaped index fund. He says-  Keep it Simple. Keep it Simple. We are financially blessed. What I seek says Ballmer is not to have anxiety, not to have to spend a lot of time, where we are blessed enough if we make 7%, the standard S&P return in the long run. He had luck listening to the right people and his loyalty to the company.  When Balmer left office as CEO in 2014 Microsoft market capitalization was $300 million. Ten years later it is $3 trillion with work on cloud computing and AI. Microsoft gained 29%  each year in that period including dividends, the S&P 13% with dividends, endowments 8%. As investor non-investor Ballmer now exceeds $150 billion and is No. 9. Most investments are in one trick ponies Google for example or in two trick ponies Apple, Amazon or Microsoft. One trick pony means they milk it, and milk it, and milk it. Three trick ponies not many you can find. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This leading investment bank G. Sachs Jan Hatzius forecast for the US economy is for inflation to go down further from 2.8% in December 2025 to 2.4%. The forecast is at 2.5% growth for 2025 for US economy under a DJT administration including impact of tariffs on China imports of 20%, selective tariffs on EU imports, not an additional 10% tariff across the board.

Net Immigration is forecast at 750,000. This is lower than what it was in the last 4 years with it's surges in some years. The remigration deportation plan will have some impact on growth yet the growth forecast will not be affected to a large extent. Strong real disposable income growth of 3.3% and the wealth and income effect will support spending growth in 2025, says this forecast by G. Sachs investment bank's Jan Hatzius.

LyrArc Article Gist
Flamanville 3 in Normandy is a new generation nuclear reactor in France. The last one was Civaux 2 in southwestern France. This is reactor with new safety standards and more productive. It produces 1600 megawatts MW enough for 2 million homes. The complexity- 12 years after original schedule and cost 13.6 billion euros instead of 3.3 billion euros. 

France gets 60% of its energy from nuclear unlike Germany which closed 3 of its last nuclear reactors under policy of Merkel. 

LyrArc Article Gist
 

Christmas market running car into a crowd on Dec 21 in Magdeburg pushes security as the main issue with migration not attracting workers for labor shortages. All parties are against migraton today in Germany. Professor Hohne of the Technical University in Chemnitz says

"With that, other facets of migration are pushed to the background — such as, for example, how to address Germany's labor shortage or attract skilled workers. I fear that the attack in Magdeburg will further strengthen this bias."

LyrArc Article Gist
The problems facing Labour under Keir Starmer with a 156 seat majority on only 34% of the vote and 40% of voters staying away, the split of Conservative vote between Reform UK and Tories and first past the line election rules giving Labour an unreal advantage.

The first six months with the budget and abolishing of winter fuel allowance by Rachel Reeves. It was pushed by Treasury but was it the best messaging by Labour which has been faced with criticism on this issue and its perception of pensioners and working class. The lack of growth and the possibility of no growth in the last quarter of 2025 creates more problems for giving conviction to Labour's message and vision of a turnaround in the economy. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The economy, wages and cost of living, the failures in infrastructure and at Deutsche Bahn, migration or remigration are issues in Germany. During periods when there are Christmas market attacks in recent years  remigration has emerged as an issue. Migration is no longer the issue in Germany as it was during high levels of migration under Merkel following the wars in Syria and Iraq, unrest in North African countries such as Tunisia with Arab Spring.  The policies of CDU's Merkel tapping into potential migrant labor to meet shortages of manpower in the economy have been reversed by CDU and SPD+ Greens since 2020. Musk wades into this issue only to find Christian Democrats, Free Democrats cautioning him that he lacks understanding of what is happening. Remigration is now essentially accepted by the Social Democrats, and Christian Demcorats, advocated by Wagenknect Left and AfD right parties alike, leaving little room for AfD to grow except from unease.  CDU Merz polls at 30-36% but lacks answers to the Ukraine war. AfD is at about 20%. Wagenkenecht has taken positions opposing immmigration and migrants similar to Socialist parties in Denmark, which means most of the European Union across all parties have reversed position on migration similar to Labor in Britain under Keir Starmer. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Pierre Poilievre gained prominence when he supported the Canadian truckers strike in 2022.  That year he was elected leader of the of the Conservatives party of Canada. In March 2022 the Conservative party crossed the Liberals with popularity at 32%. The NDP coalition ally of the Liberals was at 17%. Starting March 2024 the Liberals took a huge slide in the polls to 25% with Conservatives gaining to reach 42%.  The issues about cost of living, the Border and transgender culture issues resonate in Canada in the same way that they do with Americans. Voters say they can't afford gas at the pump and groceries. Pierre Poilevre has emerged as a leader of Conservatives at a point when for the first time since the 1980's it has a 20% point margin over the Liberals and Trudeau. There is also the issue of who will be best at negotiating on the tariffs issue with the DJT administration in the US. DJT does not take Trudeau seriously calling Canada the 51st state. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The 1985 hit "Small Town" by John Mellencamp is about Seymour, Indiana. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says the city of Seymour welcomes immigrants legally here who are properly vetted. The concern is about migrants not vetted and not legally here. At a recent city council meeting Lucas attended it was decided not to go ahead with an economic development agenda. Says Lucas- “However, Seymour has changed drastically in just the past few years, and many of us are obviously concerned about the direction we are headed,” he added. New immigrant cases or migrant arrivals for Jackson county, Indiana, where Seymour is located went up to 435 in 2024 from 66 in 2021. It is at that point that the welcome center idea ran into opposition in this small town in Indiana, an hour from Indianapolis population 21,000 in Jackson County. As the town's population mix changes - it was 1% Hispanic in 1990, then 5% Hispanic in 2000- jumping in two decades of Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden to 25% Hispanic, questions besides economic about the sense of uneasiness of resident came up. Also of cultural literacy of the state of Indiana, and of the history of the state within the Union forged by Washington and Lincoln, FDR and Eisenhower, and of Wendell Wilkie of Elwood, Indiana. Unemployment rate for Jackson County is 3.3%, median income $63,000, home ownership 57%. Issues were not about the economy alone, and about how many immigrants could be absorbed and the cultural and language literacy of arriving migrants. There were issues about the perceived crime rate (metrics show traffic related offenses were up), and about drawing too much of the school's resources as English learning went up slowing learning in the schools. Republican State Representative Jim Lucas says it is crowding the health care clinic downtown with immigrants. ...