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About half of Conservative voters voted for Reform UK in 2024 election says this Ipsos report in 2024 showing how Britain voted by ethnic, gender and education. This brought Reform UK to 17-19% of voters over the age of 45. More recently reports show three in ten voters saying there are too many asylum seekers in their neighborhood and this makes up 70% of Reform UK supporters as reported by Ipsos. This has brought the UK Reform vote from about 17-19% to double to 34% in 2025 polls. Labour is only at 25% and Liberals at 11% and Conservatives doing poorly.

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Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive is the new Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. His ties to Goldman Sachs go beyond his own work at the firm. His father joined Goldman in 1957, and worked for his entire career at the investment bank. Steven's brother Alan also worked at Goldman. During the campaign Trump was severe in his criticism of his opponents Cruz and Clinton's ties to the bank. Ironies abound, not only is the new Treasury Secretary from Goldman, his connections go back a generation. The Treasury Secretary under Clinton was Goldman Sachs executive Robert Rubin. Under Bush who followed Clinton the Treasury Secretary was Goldman Sachs executive Henry Paulson. Under Republican and Democratic administrations Goldman Sachs executives have held key positions. Mr Mnuchin was campaign finance chairman for Trump for 6 months leading to him being chosen for Treasury Secretary. Mnuchin joined Goldman in 1985. During the campaign Trump was also severe in his criticism of financier George Soros, making this a key point in a debate with Clinton for taking Soros's support. This report by Das and Ensign points out that in 2002 Mnuchin left Goldman to run a credit fund set up by George Soros. In 2004 Mnuchin founded hedge fund Dune Capital Management LP with Soros support.  When IndyMac bank collapsed a deal with the government was arranged that covered a part of any future loan losses being taken by FDIC, and Dune was one of several hedge funds and private equity funds including Soros funds that acquired it for $1.5 billion. The renamed IndyMac bank was called OneWest with Mnuchin as chairman. OneWest was sold in 2014 at a large profit to CIT Group Inc. This report says CIT Group took a $230 million charge in July 2015 for accounting problems at OneWest.  During the latter part of the Trump campaign after he joined it in May 2016, Mnuchin set up a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee. This made it possible for major donors to give to the Republican party and Mr Trump. The head of the Republican National Committee is Mr. Lewis Eisenberg. Having run the technology division at Goldman, Mnuchin was prominent in Goldman and investment banking circles in New York.    ...

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"Cancel Culture"- how Democrats and Republicans Conservatives and Liberals see the shaming of people for their views on social media- it is having accountability for some, and seen as censorship or punishment by others. Pew Researchers show the views of different people by age, gender, political affiliation, on the idea of "cancel culture." Some say does it even help doing this on a platform like social media as it tends to exaggerate and is rarely helpful to educate people and create real conversations to increase knowledge. When people are being shamed for racism or sexism, there is little idea of getting people to change or for patient forgiveness, or educating on why certain behaviours are wrong. Yale University's 58 page document on where it went wrong on "holistic admissions" and "cancel culture," is an example of how "cancel culture" when adopted inadvertently at universities and colleges across the Nation can be misguided and not result in positive actions. In the process can this denigrate the achievements of western civilization through the Renaissance of ideas, the awakening of knowledge in Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, the Enlightenment, and the Scientific Revolution that resulted from this. Followed by the Industrial Revolution unique in Europe and the US that created the Modern World and the standards of living, of literacy, education and healthcare, and transportation we know today. This is the question Yale and other universities are asking today in 2026. ...

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Seen as IRA's these accounts in DJT's One Big Beautiful Act with the government investing $1000 of its money for every newborn's savings account is a powerful way to create wealth for the next generation. It is designed to be invested in funds that grow with the S&P 500, will be available in 2026. Lets look at the power of accumulation in a fund that has $3000 invested in it $1000 by the government, $1000 by a grandparent and $1000 by a parent. Over 10, 20 and 30 years. If the child has $3000 invested in it till he is 18 years this would have $54000 of payments made into the fund.   The actual S&P return has averaged 12-13% over the last 10 years 2023-2024. Including dividends it has grown to 249%. Assuming it grows at 10 percent a year ,the power of compound interest is huge- it will grow to $47,000 in 10 years, 147,000 in 20 years, and 349,000 in 30 years. This is 3 times the average IRA of 127,000 in 2025. Fidelity Investments shows average IRA in 2025 as as $127,000, for 30 year olds 104,000. In a good set of years this account alone would triple the retirement savings of ordinary Americans.   ...

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Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.

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Strong spending on services, on items like travel and leisure spending is helping the economy avoid a recession in 2023. About $500 billion in excess savings from the pandemic period that Americans have to spend, according to a report from the San Francisco  Federal Reserve Bank, is keeping spending strong in mid 2023. The strong demand for travel also enables airlines and hotels to raise fares and rates.

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Biden is considering having the US join the $1.3 billion fund for the Amazon.Germany has announced a package for defense of the Amazon. This is part of the climate change prevention effort. At meetings today Biden said- "Both our nations strong democracies were tested of late. But both in the United States and Brazil democracy prevailed." Lula for his part said- "Brazil marginalized itself for four years."

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The Guardian sees Sunak's dry economic instincts as hopelessly inappropriate for the times with not enough help reaching needy families. It also sees Liz Truss's distrust of the state and public sector at a time when collective solidarity and solutions are needed as unhelpful. Truss is seen as trying to having it both ways in the way Boris Johnson did, cutting taxes as well as boosting spending on infrastructure.

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The huge challenges faced by a nation of 1.2 billion people and its border relations with China are the subject of this interview with the Australian Envoy to India. He says India faces some unique challenges but shares the same values of all the democracies in the region and in the world. He says rhetoric is one thing and practical action is another, saying that the QUAD is moving at that level.

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By having ships stay close to the Black Sea coast of NATO countries Ukraine is reviving the grain corridor that lets it send grain exports. This is also possible today because of increased surveillance capabilities of Ukraine and the increasing influence of Ukraine in the Black Sea. The corridor is important now that RUssia has withdrawn from the grain agreement put together by the UN and Turkey through negotiations with Russia.

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Arthur Engoron pursued a music career while he earned degrees from Columbia and New York University, even taking a break from working at 2 NY law firms to pursue music. He worked as a cab driver during college. Engoron is unfazed by having to deal with Mr. Trump's tactics, and by the issues in the inflated values civil fraud case launched by the NY Attorney General Letitia James.

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Michelle Obama delivers a rousing speech in Pheonix, Arizona, as she campaigns across the country for Hillary Clinton, saying "they are trying to take away your hope." And by reminding voters Obama lost the state in 2012 by only 208,000 votes or 63 votes per precinct, so voters should not stay home. She tried to revive the 2008 campaign theme of "hope" of the Obama campaign in that year.

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The launch of 5G is expected to impact every aspect of life in India and act as a transformational force. Mr. Modi said he is happy that school children from rural parts of India, part of a 1.3 billion population, are a part of  this rollout. Students he said were interacting with eminent scientists from the classroom using this technology. He emphasized 4 pillars - cost of device, digital connectivity, cost of data ,and the mindset of Digital First. 

The goal is internet for all. Before 1 gigabyte of data cost Rs 300, now it costs Rs 10.  On average an Indian spends on 14 gigabytes of data a month which costs $150. This means, says Modi, that the poor are saving approximately Rs. 4000 a month. Adding that as the technology is developed locally- "This is not just India's decade, it is the century of India."

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Jeff Sommer in the NYT says no one could have predicted the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He says forecasts for the stock and bond markets over the short term for 2023 are useless. Most have missed by 12- 25% he says and compares this to forecasts that predict a cold day when it is going to be 60 degrees outside. Sommer's says in today's situation only long term horizons are relevant, looking and saving, investing over a ten year period. He cites Vanguard's approach of looking at the long term horizon in its investment outlook over 10 years on the Vanguard site as the right one based on the experience of the last 20-30 years and historical experience over long periods.

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About $78 billion in equities and ETF's bought in the US in the first quarter of 2023 excluding retirement accounts. Individuals have been buying at 5 times the rate between 2017-2019 says this report in WSJ. This is one of the reasons the S&P 500 is up 7.7% this year. Individual investments into money market funds remain at high levels, and there is less speculative investing. Saving for retirement remains a priority for investors. 401 (K) retirement accounts investments have held steady at 14% of income on average, including employer and employee contributions, according to Fidelity Investments. Younger investors shown in WSJ takes a conservative approach not taking a short term approach and maxxing out 401 (K) contributions, looking to the long run. 

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If Morse's thinking holds and crude prices drop to $90 range per barrel (see the link to Morse) then we have another major problem on our hands as the incentives for conservation diminish and there is less money invested in energy conservation, and investment, effort and enthusiasm for new technologies for conservation also diminishes. This risks the environment and carbon dioxide emissions and keeps sending money on expensive oil imports to Saudis, Russia and the middle east which could be better invested in the US for innovation and R&D or returned tothe public. For energy saving conservation technology investors the drop in incentive through a return to cheap oil or expectations of prices that are below $100 for instance can be the worst of both worlds high prices and low investment says Vinod Khosla. He advocates a floor on the price of oil. Stanford Professor Hillard Huntington, executive director of the Energy Modeling Forum, a group of energy experts, says energy saving initiatives could easily take 4 million to 5 million barrels a day of demand off the market in 10 years from the 20 million barrels a day that the USA uses to heat homes, power industry, and fuel cars, trucks and planes. It would be a huge loss for that not to happen. And this has happened before as the oil crisis in the 1980's became a dim memory once oil prices hit a low of $11 in the mid 1980's after conservation kicked in at the time. The idea then is to have some sort of gasoline tax that would keep a floor on the price of oil that Europe already has. And British Columbia has shown how by having a small tax and returning money to the taxpayers with a $100 check refund and in other ways to small business and other txpayers....

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The Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy with low interest rates are having an unintended effect. Even as it is hurting savers and the retired who earn little interest and are pushed into riskier investments, corporations are able to borrow cheaply at near 1% interest rates. Corporations now have about $1.6 trillion in cash savings set aside, and the ratio went up to 6.2% of assets. With the current economic environment and uncertainty this cash is not being used for additional investments and hiring.

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The May 6 episode of the stock market plunge of 900 points in the U.S. and then recovering had the effect of rattling investors nerves especially retirees. The impact of this episode is recorded in the experience of one Charles Schwab broker office in Englewood, Colorado. By the end of that day this broker had 50 calls on his answering machine from a fifth of his clients, all seeking to know what happened. Charles Schwab, who helped launch a period of individual investing in the U.S. after 1982 by cutting fees and going after the average investor, (along with others like Jack Bogle of Vanguard Funds), is also on edge. He says he has not seen anything like this since his early days. Schwab confirms Yale Prof. Shiller who says (see link) that his index for markets shows a lot of nervousness. Saying that 98% of people are still very concerned, coming after the May 6 incident, and the Greece and eurozone crisis that impacted US stock markets. One other factor he points out is the constant flow of headlines that suggest certain business people engaged in fradulent practices, something that fuels a lack of trust. Charles Schwab ponders from his office across the San Francisco Bay Bridge, whether words like safety and soundness mean anything anymore. Another factor of concern, Bogle points out, is that institutional investors now own 70% of American corporations, up from 35% in 1975. And the advantage has veered sharply in their direction as institutions, hedge funds, and investment banks trade on their own account, with wealth moving in that direction. This leaves the individual investor and especially the retiree or those about to retire in a severe predicament....

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With the passage of debt ceiling legislation the focus turns to the super-committee that will have to come up with $1.2 trillion in savings for deficit reduction. Six Republicans and six Democrats will be selected in the next 2 weeks and are required to come up with proposals by November 23, 2011.

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EV makers in US offer about $5000 in discounts to replace $7500 lost in government EV tax credits. The hurdle for electric vehicles is the lack of charging infrastructure and the cost of home chargers, in addition to the limited range in miles. The big jump in inflation centered not just on groceries in 2019-2024, there was a 34% increase in the cost of new cars and 50% increase for used cars, and a jump in maintenance costs. Reducing affordability for young people and making car ownership costlier. This turned into a cost of living crisis with groceries up 31%, that affected people's enthusiasm for climate change action when China was building one coal plant a week (adding 95 GW in 2024)- underlying the need to provide immediate relief to American working families and elderly through tax cuts, benefits and shifting tax dollars from climate change action to working families in the next 4 years. This is the approach taken under the DJT One Big Beautiful Act of 2025. Basically what the DJT side of the story is on emissions- US has only 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions, cut this by half to 6% and assuming the EU which has 6% of gas emissions also cuts by half to 3%, the saving just 9%  while the 82% of emitters China, India, Russia and Brazil etc not making the cuts needed the impact on climate change is not significant. If China and India want relief US working families also need relief.  ...

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Governor Hochul of New York was only able to increase the minimum wage by 2 dollars in New York to $17, up from $15, by 2026 in New York City, Long Island and Westchester. It would go up to $17 in the rest of the state by 2027. Assembly Democrats had asked for $21 saying that Seattle and Los Angeles offered a higher minimum wage.  Future increases would be pegged to inflation.

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Ordinary Americans are better off paying of their credit card debt, delaying mortgages for an house when house prices have surged and mortgage rates once 3% are now about 7%, and not borrowing money for a car, says this report in the WSJ. Savings habits that were popular in the pandemic are needed today because credit card debt is a pre-pandemic levels, and spending habits need restraint for household budgets facing high inflation.

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Union efforts to unionize workers at a VW Tennessee plant after successful wage bargaining in the midwestern states where American automakers are based. Having similar wages and benefits, working conditions, at southern plants of German and Japanese makers in places such as Alabama and Tennessee makes it possible for workers in the South gain the same benefits and wages enjoyed by workers in the midwest, at a time when workers are struggling to meet cost of living.