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Indian foreign minister Jaishankar describes the highly eccentric situation of lack of US India close economic and defense cooperation for over 50 years, when the natural flow of cooperation one would expect between the land of Washington and Lincoln and the land of Vivekananda and Gandhi was interrupted. The current form of cooperation has existed for about 14 years and accelerated after prime minister Modi was elected in 2016. This was a turning point in the US India relationship and in India US economic partnership. After president Trump was elected Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump held a huge public gathering in stadiums at Houston and Ahmedabad, in a way that was never seen before between an Asian country and America. What changed? For one thing India had a great weight lifted from its shoulders with the removal of the erratic Nehru policies of post independence India of forming a non aligned bloc with countries like Egypt and Yugoslavia. These were policies that had no connection to India and its history as the civilization where the East has its roots in Vedanta and Buddhism. It also resulted in alienating the Dwight Eisenhower administration and administrations that followed after John F. Kennedy, as the Cold War intensified and most of Eastern Europe came under Soviet domination. India never gauged the effect this had on America after the Berlin crisis in 1948, the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and similar uprisings in East Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. Britain was no help even with the British Commonwealth, as the British perpetuated the idea that India was too divided to make up one country, having failed to grasp India's ancient civilization and  culture, and having built the Empire in India by using the division in the country. Mohandas Gandhi described this in Hind Swaraj in 1910 and told Indians that it was they who had invited the British into India, with rulers using military garrisons of the British commercial East India Company for help in their internal wars. Americans still unfamiliar with India till after 2000 simply accepted British colonial ideas about India. The new administrations in the US, the Trump and Biden administration, and the Modi administration in India have shaken this up and changed perceptions all around. Biden recently during the Modi visit to Washington DC said India US relations as he sees it would be "the closest on earth." So that today we have an ancient civilization roused to its depths in its youth for modernization, that extends from India to Indonesia all the way to Japan rooted in India's ancient civilization of Vedanta and Buddhism, with a population of about 2 billion people. That faces the US on its Pacific coast, united in its determination to build a new and common future with ideas of parliamentary democracy, participation of the people, and of modernization with science and technology, contributing to the betterment of all peoples. ...

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SMIC China Shanghai and the latest chip making science and technology,  the competition with the US in chips science, is covered in this report in NYT. The Biden administration and vice president Harris are committed to keeping America's lead in science and technology by investing heavily and working with partners in the EU, South Korea and Japan. For the first time in decades the US is protecting its science and technology and its competitiveness, something that administrations since Reagan- Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump miserably failed to do.

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Eliquis blood thinner price direct mail cash $346, compared to Medicare $231 under Biden law for price negotiation by Medicare. Under an executive order issued by president Trump in May 2025 the price of pharmaceuticals in the US are to be brought down to be comparable to the price shown for other developed countries for the same drug.

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A Washington Post reporter tells why his reading list for 2018 has on it Winston Churchill's book "The Gathering Storm." A book suggested to him by Republican strategist Steve Schmidt. Authoritarian tendencies are evident in the interview with Schmidt of the NYT, including the idea expressed by president Trump that the Justice Department is something over which the president has "absolute rights." In a interview on CNN, Carl Bernstein, the reporter who covered the Watergate scandal of president Nixon, clarified that it was not just the break  into the Watergate apartments that led to impeachment of Nixon. Bernstein stated that it was the way in which Nixon used the powers of the presidency that led to the problems he faced.

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Saudis and Russia fail to reach an agreement on cutting production in response to lower demand after the coronavirus crisis, resulting in Saudi decision to boost output and cut prices.  Saudi prince Salman asks ministries to lower budgets for expenditures. Saudi oil production was boosted by 300,000 barrels a day (bbd) to 12.3 million bbd. Saudis also cut oil price which is at about $34 a barrel on March 9, 2020 for Brent crude. Meanwhile behind the rhetoric from Saudis a mediation effort is being made by Mr. Falih from the Saudi side with Mr. Novak of Russia. Mr. Falih is minister of investments. He was the oil minister who negotiated an agreement with Russia in 2016.  The U.S. under president Trump sees oil price reduction as good for the economy in the face of the coronavirus impact. The U.S. oil shale industry will be affected with more bankruptcies, as many companies cannot operate at $30 a barrel. The Saudi budget requires a price of $60 which is why the Saudis favored production cuts but failed to convince Russia. Russia sees no need for production cuts at this time. Russia is also better positioned to handle the oil price decline as its budget is less dependent on oil prices. ...

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Anton Troianovski presents how things are seen by Russians and in Russia of  the Biden Putin meeting. Mr. Putin says in an NBC interview that he sees president Biden "as a professional who has spent all his life in politics." Putin compared this with Mr. Trump who he thought was relatively unprepared, new to politics by comparison who was unable to deliver on the friendlier policy he had promised, and instead delivered too many impulsive moments in the relationship. This has helped set the relationship of the US with Russia on a "stable and predictable basis." Russian experts say the Russian president was seen badly by the American political class, and not just badly, "insultingly badly" creating a rift at another level. Biden is seen as a member of  the old school in a good sense, one expert says, who as senator visited the US for talks on limiting nuclear weapons in 1979 and in the 1980's, who knows Russia and who has genuine respect for Russia as a country, and sees it possible for adversaries to work together for some overriding interests. Some Russians are are nostalgic for that time when Russia was treated with respect and as an equal. For Biden and America the priorities are for America to achieve the economic rebuilding that is needed, to bring back hope at the time of the losses from the pandemic, the positive message is genuine. One Russian expert says this summit has huge meaning for Russians. It tell them the US has a desire to set a kind of positive agenda. At the time of the worldwide pandemic, and with so much rebuilding to be done, it comes as a fresh breeze for both nations and for Europe, and the rest of the world. Biden has done the right thing for America and for the world. ...

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President Biden's action to protect consumers when there is a run on the banks such as SVB bank, Signature, Republic bank in the US. And the coordinated action with European central banks and European governments that protect the international banking system because of the interconnections between US and European banks and risks of contagion from one region to another. Janet Yellen at Treasury and the FDIC, Federal Reserve, Swiss central banks worked together on Credit Suisse and other banks affected by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature bank. The Federal Reserve bank of San Francisco supervised SVB bank and flagged the problems of it not being able to sustain itself in a crisis with enough cash on hand. Congress under president Trump removed banks under $250 billion in assets from supervision which made it difficult for the San Francisco Fed to take the problem of SVB to the next level or to be able under the law passed during the 2009 financial crisis to regulate SVB and impose the Fed's requirements. A problem exists  of lobbying by banks for less regulation and the influence exerted on the US government and even the Fed. Spreading of ideas that a culture of laissez fairre or little regulation works well for the banking system contrary to evidence from the 2009 financial crisis and the mismanagement of banks such as Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, with frequent or egregious behaviour leading to settlements with the government. All it takes is the failure of one significant bank even if it is not a large bank, and the spiralling effects on banks with weakness of some kind for a crisis of confidence in the banking system. The role of lobbying by SVB bank and its CEO's appointment to the board of San Francisco Fed is seen as part of this self serving culture. ...

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Jose de Cordoba of the WSJ provides this excellent story on the nature of the migration crisis in the U.S. that is creating political divisions in the U.S. What is causing this surge in migration to the U.S.? Cordoba provides some useful insights to understand the nature of this problem. Nine out of ten migrants in Guatemala which sends most of the migrants from Central America are moving north from Guatemala through Mexico to the U.S. for financial reasons, it points out. Only 10% are because of violence in the region, the rest for financial reasons according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration The jump in apprehension of Guatemalans at the American border shows a surge from 15,000 in 2007 to 236,000 in 9 months of 2019, according to U.S. government data. The surge began in 2008 and jumped in 2014 after U.S. court rulings that first required migrant children to be allowed to join relatives in the U.S. followed by a ruling in 2015 that allowed a parent to join the children and allowed court proceedings to take place that takes years. The result was that smugglers advertised on radio and families sold small plots of land to join relatives in the U.S. who had gone before them. The migration is also specific to certain areas hit by damage to crops, including coffee crop from drought, or certain towns that simply sent more people simply for financial reasons advertised openly.  For 8 hours of work a migrant could make at $12 per hour amount of $96 per day, in Guatemala the daily wage would be about $5.  Overwhelmingly it is financial reasons or economic opportunity that sends migrants north. After it became known that kids could help migration the people in family groups apprehended at the border jumped from about 40,000 in 2015 to 390,000 in fiscal 2019. Smugglers charge $8600 per adult and half that for a child and an adult that can be dropped off at a checkpoint. The efforts of president Trump to close the border to this migration include having Mexico sign an agreement to police its southern border with Guatemala using its newly setup National Guard. As a result the migration has actually surged in 2019 with migrants seeing this as their one last opportunity to join relatives in the U.S. or to migrate to the U.S. The Trump administration tried separating families because of the loophole in the law that allows children to be not deported and parents to join their children. But this created a public outcry and the effort now is to close the loophole in the law. It is also strange that as many migrants are coming from one town Joyabaj  with population 100,000 as from Guatemala City the capital population 2.5 million. In fact the economy has grown by 3.4 % a year in Guatemala and efforts have been made to improve conditions with the help of donor countries in the West for several years, though the drought conditions exist. The situation is similar to that in Europe. If one looks at the violence by gangs in central American region after the end of the guerilla wars and compares it to the wars in Syria and Iraq, one can see how humanitarian concerns preceded what eventually turned out tobe a full blown migration for economic reasons. Initially chancellor Merkel adopted a humanitarian stance but failed to recognize that there was another side to his situation that would attract a wave of economic migrants from places as far apart as North Africa to Afghanistan. Poverty has existed in these regions for many many years before the current migration, with drought and lack of economic opportunity going far back in time. Merkel only recently recognized this problem and the new CDU leader Kambrauer has clearly recognized this. CDU policy shifted in 2018-2019 with curbs on economic migration that has reduced it to a trickle. This process is underway in the U.S. at its border with Mexico and for Mexico with its border with Guatemala. In the short run Europe and the U.S. are paying a price. Not just in the way it has divided each country with a far left and a far right eroding the centrist parties that existed before. In some cases centrist parties that were popular on the right and the left now hve leaders from a far right or a far left faction within the centrist ruling parties. Boris Johnson in Britain, Trump in the U.S., leaders in Italy, Austria and Hungary. Or as in Germany and Spain new far left or far right parties causing the centrist parties to dwindle in influence or as in Germany this combined with a shift to the Green Party in Germany and Liberals Party in Britain as a show of disapproval for how the migration issue has been tackled.  The Economist in a July 2019 issue also points out that the country's own citizens have fared worse with migration. It shows how the Conservative Party's austerity cuts for welfare budgets was popular in Britain as long as eastern European migration at high levels in Britain were allowed starting with the Labour party under Blair. This disproportionately hurt the middle class and the poor after the hit already taken from the faulty banking caused recession. With the drop in migration it is now felt by a majority in Britain that the austerity cuts have just gone too far and a mood is set in to restore many of the cuts and fund public services. Meantime some of the damage has been done and will take a decade to correct as the issues that mangled the centrist parties and led to fragmentation on views of what society should look like have taken place with Brexit and high levels of poverty, income inequality in Britain, lack of investment in infrastructure with overallocation to tech with declining productive benefit for every additional dollar spent. ...

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Yoon suk-yeol the prosecutor who decided to run in 2021 for the first time in politics, won the recent presidential election in South Korea. He talks to the WSJ in this interview report and outlines the policies of his administration.  Yoon say she sees upholding the constitution which embodies values of  liberal democracy and market economy as the deciding factors for foreign and domestic policy. He wants to build closer ties to the US and Japan. He will resume defense exercizes with the US that were suspended during the Trump administration. On China he sees continued economic relations as a trading partner, but sees flip flopping in foreign policy as creating risks for the Indo-Pacific region. If invited to join the Quad Yoon says South Korea  "will positively review joining." On domestic policy he says his goal is "to correct and normalize so that the market can operate as it should." Yoon led the prosecution in efforts against prior presidents and Samsung, and his known for his forthright approach. Yoon wants to see more foreign investment and says he will ensure that there is no discrimination against foreign companies, including eliminating unnecessary regulation. ...

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US president Biden's multi-trillion dollar spending plans for infrastructure, climate change plans, education and healthcare, are based on a changing perception about the effectiveness of the public sector spending initiatives. The Reagan period idea that the public sector is not as efficient as the private sector that lingered through the Clinton, Bush and Obama, Trump administrations is no longer accepted. After the pandemic another perception is taking root that when it comes to health infrastructure the government has a leading and indispensable role to play. Gone are the doubts about this that hung like a cloud over the nation's plans for infrastructure in health, education and supply channels. Following the global competition with China a new factor is also playing its part. The need for government to play an active role in trade, in protecting technological resources, and in supporting US technological firms in competition with other countries. There is a new perception that the government should be determined to play this role. In the effort to be self-reliant after the pandemic the government is expected to play a role in redesigning the supply channels and providing the direction and incentives for supply channels worldwide that give America a competitive advantage and less dependence on other nations. ...

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This report in the WSJ cite sources showing the advisers that had the most effect on Trump's decision to launch airstrikes in Syria after the chemical attack were Defense Secretary Mattis, National Security Adviser McMaster, Secretary of State Tillerson, and Jared Kushner. Senator Corker calls it a transformative moment for president Trump, as Trump acted decisively once he had talked to his advisers, and after having several options prepared for him, and acting on the same day as he met Xi Jinping at the White House dinner. Trump unlike Obama who let the chemical attack go without a response and had many deliberations that ended up with inaction, acted decisively. Unlike Obama in 2013 after a similar chemical attack Trump also showed emotion that reflected normal human reaction after something of this kind, says this report. 

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China's effort to tie Vietnam and Malaysia to its economic system- will it work? China has trade worth $982 billion with 10 neighbors in South East Asia compared to trade of $786 billion with EU and $688 billion with US.

Some of that $982 billion is product shipped to Vietnam by China, assembled there and shipped to the US. This is why DJT/USTR put 46% tariff on Vietnam, now reduced to 10% for 90 days till negotiations. President Xi of China visited Hanoi, Vietnam, to sign 45 bilateral cooperation agreements to bind Vietnam closer to China's state run capitalist system. At the same time premier Lam of Vietnam is seeking negotiations with US and has talked to president Trump. What is going on? Vietnam hope to have ties to both US and China. Will it work?

 

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Trump's tax plan sets a 15% tax rate for owner operated companies,on so-called pass-through businesses. A tax break is planned for child care.

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The European Union plans to rebuild its solar panel industry by manufacturing in the home country. This means shifting away from supply channels where China controls 80% of production. Chancellor Merkel failed to see the risks of letting German companies be decimated by China's subsidy program supporting solar panel makers in China. A system of customs duties failed when China threatened to retaliate with duties on German car exports. In the end Germany like the US under president Obama and Trump after 2010 failed to support domestic solar panel makers.  Now subsidies are accepted way of competing with China for both the US and the EU. The US under the Biden administration is fully committed to compete with China by developing its own solar panel manufacturing industry with the kind of help China is giving to its own solar panel makers. The EU is following the same path. From 200 gigawatts in 2023 the EU's target is 600 gigawatts from solar by 2030. The 400 gigawatts will come from through a policy of make at home in the EU, including raw materials, polysilicon, wafers, and assembly. Subsidies are now the way the US and the EU plan to get back what they lost to China, their critical manufacturing advantage through errors in policy. The European Commission is also changing the rules to accomodate the move. A story of one more critical advantage surrendered through the orthodoxy of free markets without policymakers understanding what they were doing. ...

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The WSJ Editorial Board speaking for the business community traditional Republican groups finally takes up the election on issues of policy difference between Trump run Republican party and Harris run Democratic Party which it should have from Day One. The former president says something that has never happened in the last hundred years- policy will be decided after the election depending on what he decides to do. Cost of Living action is No 1 on voter priorities. "Drill, Baby Drill," is the whole Republican party platform for cost of living action. What is the Harris Democrats policy plan for cost of living action? WSJ says it is spending blowouts that caused inflation, the Green New Deal, entitlement expansions and student loan forgiveness.The real reason for the increase in cost of living comes from the overconcentration of supply chain by American business in China, on which every president Bush, Obama, Trump, did little or nothing. The lack of an effective vaccination program and ineffective vaccines in China by 2021 and 2022 led to the loss of the supplies from China leading to shortages for automobiles parts and other supplies and surge in prices in 2021-2023. Powell and the US central bank correctly raised rates but cautiously and waited for this to correct, president Biden brought manufacturing home through huge investments called the "spending blowout" that brought down the inflation from 9% to 3%. Some of that "spending blowout" went to chips and science to correct the errors of American Business and Reagan-Friedman theory of the Republican party that created this problem with a culture of utter  indifference to the ultimate costs of who makes what and where. The Inflation Reduction Act also tackled higher health and other costs paid by American workers and families, and invested in public services and in repairing the dilapidated crumbling American infrastructure. Are Republicans saying let the roads, bridges, airports, built in the 1940-1960's heyday of American industrialization as China and India's is now, let them crumble? What do the educated minds of the WSJ Board say about coal in China and India and their effects on their massive use multiple times that of US and EU in history, is it not damaging to the environment and why the Chinese realized the health in North China with coal winter use was worse than in South China cut their coal use. Are they saying lets burn fossil fuels and ignore, and if investment has to be made in solar who is going to do it? Is it Ok for Republicans thet we just import from China all our solar panels indefinitely into the future. "Green New Deal" is just a perjorative term, policy has to be made thoughtfully and without prejudice or bias of any sort for the best that we can do for the American people, ignoring so called "right" or "left." Doing what is right, what makes sense, is a lot harder.     ...

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The investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller now looks into president Trump's business interests and efforts made to secure financing and permits to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. This comes from information provided by Mr. Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen. The timing of these contacts show this to be taking place about the time of the presidential campaign and earlier statements to be misleading.

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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Mike Flynn, who briefly held the position of National Security Adviser before resigning, tells the FBI and Congressional officials that he is willing to be interviewed if he is given immunity for prosecution. Flynn, a former general, resigned after accepting that he misled White House officials about the phone conversations with the Russian ambassador. Also an issue and seen as improper is that Flynn was paid for speeches by Russia's state sponsored network RT just before becoming an adviser to the Trump campaign, according to documents given to a congressional oversight committee.

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For the first time in decades Mexico has a president who travels on regular commercial flights, flying in tourist class. There is no presidential plane, no presidential mansion. He starts his day at 6 am with a crime report and a Cabinet meeting By 7 am he is at the presidential palace giving a free wheeling press conference. He has in 3 months talked to the media and the public more than was done in 6 years under the previous presidents. By noon he is on his way to catch a commercial flight to a provincial city such as Guadalajara.  There he meets local leaders, eats at a local cafeteria, and attends an open rally. He is most comfortable brushing against people, pressing the flesh, and making some comments in one liners, something he has done for twenty years since becoming the Mayor of Mexico City.  He is a bit evangelical, more like Bernie Sanders, but with the power. Mexicans listen to him attentively. Mexicans were so fed up with corruption, neglect of public opinion, and lack of rule of law, that Obrador after contesting with difficulty in previous two elections won decisively in the recent presidential election with large majorities in parliament. He has in the first 100 days moved to scrap a new $12 billion airport with costly cost overrruns using a referendum to make the decision. He has also cooperated with the Trump administration to slow the flow of migrants from central America, working with the U.S. on a $11 billion investment in Mexico and Central America to create the jobs and secure environment so that people can stay in their homes.   ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...