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The view from the streets of Athens in November 2011, by Landon Thomas, shows Greece teetering on the brink. A situation it appears that is not fully grasped by EU officials who have throughout 2009, 2010 and 2011, acted always lagging far behind new developments and struggled to cope. Greek manufacturing will contract by 6% in 2011, on top of earlier declines. Auto sales have practically ceased and are at the lowest levels since 1993. The number of uninsured drivers increased by 500,000 in just the last 3 months, taking the total to 1.5 million. And small shops in Greece which depend on domestic demand are closing every day. A flood of money is leaving Greece. Since January 2010, Greece's banks have see a loss of $63.5 billion in deposits, 20% of Greece's annual economic output. Greece's bankers estimate that in just the last 2 months, September and October 2011, the numbers jumped to a figure ranging from $13.8 billion to $20.7 billion. The government has imposed value added taxes and a special real estate tax attached to Greek electricity bills, which is further cutting into consumer spending. And the public is blaming the politicians. Any setttlement by a unity government with the EU may be illusory, because the rapid deterioration of the economy would hasten a default. ...

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The Turkish lira drops sharply on November 23, by 18%. This is likely to worsen inflation that is already at 20% in 2021. This also makes it harder for businesses to pay off foreign currency debt. President Erdogan is following an unconventional policy of cutting interest rates when the currency value is declining. The Turkish central bank is cutting its key policy interest rate. Growth and investment are expected to be affected as foreign investors move away from Turkey. 

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Poland's collapsing birth rate at 1.0 compared 1.62 in France another Catholic country, and Spain's 1.1, Germany's 1.3- 2.1 is the replacement rate per woman. This has profound consequences for Poland. The future workforce will be 20% smaller compared to 4% smaller in France in 2 decades. Many schools will close in rural areas which are hit hard. There are more deaths than births in many small towns. At this rate 1.7 million homes will become vacant in 2 decades.This report looks at Warsaw as well as rural areas near Belarus where the war has created much anxiety. The population of Poland will shrink from 36 million to 31 million over three decades if these trends continue. By 2000 the birhtrate dropped from 2.1 to 1.3 and the government introduced payments of 190 euros per child per month and expanded the childcare system. But this has not helped as the rate dropped to 1.03 in 2025. Under the Communist system industries were located in small towns and men stayed there while women moved to cities leading to a mismathch for men and women. The economic boom that doubled per capita income led to less interest in having children. The economy was supported by long hours of work which led to less interest in bearing children for women. Other reasons are a lack of interest in sharing and making the effort, the cost of raising children in a hyper competitive society like South Korea where births are at 0.7. ...

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Of the 45 million US student loan borrowers in 2025- only 11 million are on time with payments. The rest seeing sharp credit score declines that limit their access to home loans, other credit, or increase the costs of access to credit. This limits access to housing, and other needs for this group, it also affects demand in the economy. A recent WSJ report showed Moody Analytics research that 80% of US consumer spending is now done by 20% of the top income earners in the US. Decline in demand from this group will affect the economic growth in the US and how well the stock markets do. This will affect the job growth in the economy month to month.  This means with inaction from the DJT administration and the SCOTUS lack of comprehension of the economic aspects of this issue in ruling out action taken by the Biden administration- that this failure to take action on relief poses added risks to the US economy in 2025. It also means uneven and unbalanced growth where some groups upper income are favored by the virtue of the way the economy operates leaving many young people out of the benefits of growth. This adds to the general feeling of frustration and discontent after the pandemic and after cost of living surges in 2022-2024. It also means university education is no longer affordable or accessible to young people. Other issues play into this such as the surging cost of university education and action needs to be taken to bring this into line with earlier post 1945 patterns where university education was affordable and taken up. The increase in apprenticeship programs is a good thing, yet the gradual turning away of young men from college education is a serious danger to the cultural literacy in the US in 2020-2030. Leaving aside Ivy leagues making state college and universities affordable is one of the big problems needing to be solved as a priority in the US.  ...

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Map showing most deprived neighborhoods bordering least deprived neighborhoods in the UK in 2025.  In 2019 there were 65 such neighborhoods with posh-poor side by side, in 2025 this has jumped to 119 such neighborhoods. Shown on this map are the familiar areas around New Castle on Tyne and Leeds/ Nottingham in the North and in the Midlands. With fewer such neighborhoods in the south near London. Years of austerity policies of the Cameron/Osborne conservatives and Conservative administrations since have led to a growing divide in the UK. This is also more reason for the Labour Party to get its work together to take strong action similar to the socialist party in Denmark to cut illegal migrants, so that it can focus its efforts to deliver and build a better stronger economy for all people in Britain

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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.  

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Mexico has emerged as the world's fourth largest exporter of cars in 2012 after Japan, Germany, and S. Korea. Mexico is expected to surpass S. Korea in a few years. In 2011 2.68 millon cars and trucks were manufactured in Mexico. Honda, Nissan, VW and other companies are building new plants in Mexico. Exports in 2012 are expected to reach 2.14 million cars. With the increase in wages in China's auto plants Mexican wages are highly competitive with China, considering the proximity to markets in N. America and Latin America. Wages in Mexico are about $40 a day for assembly line workers. By comparison wages in China are about $3 an hour. Honda plans to manufacture its Fit small car in Mexico. VW executives say a VW car made in Europe is imported into Brazil with 35% duty, into the U.S. with a 25% duty on trucks, and this can be avoided by making automobiles in Mexico. The quality and reliability of vehicles made in Mexico compares well with vehicles made in Japan, according to Nissan, and productivity at plants is high. There is also good avialability of engineers and plant workers. The growing automobile production also means new plants of auto suppliers from Japan, Germany and other countries in a snowball effect as new auto plants open creating new demand for components....

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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Northwestern University has its federal funding  frozen. $790 million federal funds are frozen by the US government for toleration of anti-semitism on campus in 2024 and 2025. Northwestern cut a deal with protesters putting out anti-semitic slogans following an encampment, that was followed by other universities, says this WSJ report. This is not in the tradition of US universities and the Nation founded with the Christian faith that includes the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish faiths as one indivisible faith. Northwestern and others fail when new drug research leads to discoveries funded by federal dollars. Yet the universities get their portion of the return from the pharmaceutical companies, which then charge the average public exorbitant prices, making the universities complicit in the huge burdens placed on the American people. Similar to a Catholic Church  working with the nobles in feudal times- placing ever higher burdens on ordinary working people. Another issue is that universities are investing in new buildings, raising their prices, and operating as if they are unaccountable to the people, as young American men are being pushed away by high prices and foreign students are taking their places.   ...

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As U.S. money market funds have reduced lending to French banks, and lending maturities have shortened to seven days, French banks are facing a shortage of dollars. According to the Federal Reserve, foreign banks and their branches provide 25% of the commercial and industrial loans in the U.S. In its response to this BNP expects to reduce dollar denominated loans by $42 billion by the end of 2011 and another $40 billion in 2012, according to BNP officials. Societe Generale CEO, Frederic Oudea, says his bank will pull back on making loans to shipping, aircraft, real-estate and leveraged finance in the U.S. This will reduce credit growth in the U.S. economy.

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Kiel, Dresden and Coventry are three cities that suffered the worst in aerial bombardment in the Second World War. By 1945 these cities lay in ruins. A new Cathedral was built near the destroyed one. The inscription on brick "Father Forgive" is where the German president put a wreath on December 5, 2025, showing the German flag to show the spirit of reconciliation,

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Former Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi (2012 -2022) and its senior official makes these comments at the Munich Security Conference on US shooting down Chinese spy balloons. Yi says it was "absurd and hysterical." He says China is going to put out a paper on Ukraine that would underline the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. For China its crucial relations with Germany, trade with Europe are critical for its economy and growth. Germany's coalition government itself is divided on investment by China in the port of Hamburg, with the Greens not supporting that decision by chancellor Scholz. The issue for Biden is not simply the balloons. As The Guardian points out the US is pushing for China to withdraw or at least make conditional its support of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine that is a clear violation of the UN Charter that China says it supports. 

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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DJT on Canada "lives because of the US," and Carney's referencing the relationship and saying "Canada does not live because of the US." Rupture in relations started earlier but was mended. This time Carney takes the first step after visiting Beijing to clearly distance Canada from the US in speeches at Davos, by being openly critical of US policies. This does not bode well for negotiations onthe USMCA agreement that is being rewritten. Disputes with Mexico continues over US preference to strike on land against drug cartels in Mexico that are trafficking drugs to the US with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives more than the Korean and Vietnam wars, and World War 1 combined over the last decade. The USMCA involves negotiations with Mexico and Canada. The Border has been secured but like Eisenhower in 1954 DJT faces the problem of how to send back the surge in migrants that entered the border illegally through Mexico with the Mexican government not intervening and the Biden/Harris/Mayorkas government failing to secure it -asking for legislation as late as 2024 when most of the illegal entry had already happened. In 1954 Eisenhower organized Operation Wetback to do this, which is now underway in the US in a different way by DJT in 2026 with the clear focus on getting criminal activity out. ...

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The Guardian's Greenhouse says the UAW sees the tariff action with 25% tariff on cars imported into the US starting April 2 2025, as a positive step.  Shawn Fain of the UAW who had the support of president Biden during his term 2020-2024 says DJT's actions match those taken by Biden to help working class Americans and the middle class. Supporting the president “for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working-class communities for decades”. “Ending the race to the bottom in the auto industry starts with fixing our broken trade deals, and the Trump administration has made history with today’s actions.” Greenhouse is concerned that the way it is being implemented can create problems with tariffs on one day and off the next. The reason for the on again off again action was to give Mexico, Canada, and China time to respond with action they have not taken on fentanyl flows into the US, and Mexico time to address migrant trafficking across its borders. The US International Trade Commission study in 2024 on the 25% tariff on US auto imports cited by BBC shows it would reduce imports by 75%, increase prices by a modest 5%, and increase revenues of auto makers in the US by 5%. Figures such as prices going up by $6000 may apply to BMW's that are imported from Germany and carry high price tags for a very small very affluent customer group unrepresentative of the US automobile market. ...

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Arvind Panagriya, Prof. of Economics at Columbia University, points out the key initiatives of the Modi government in its first four years which will show results in future years for development of the country.  He mentions the Swachh Bharat Mission and cites results that show rural households with toilets are now 84% up from 38%.  By 2019 the whole country will be defecation zone free on the 100th anniversary of the birth of Mahatma Gandhi. The Dhan Jan Yojana DJY accounts opened for rural households are up to 316 million. Aadhar cards for identification are up from 650 million to 1.2 billion. The Aadhar and DJY work together to enable direct transfer of benefits to poor households, eliminating the leaks in benefits transfer and ghost accounts of the period since independence in 1947. Not mentioned by Panagriya is the Health Insurance scheme for lower income households that enable families to survive a sudden medical expense that could put them in dire straits.  These efforts work in a way to change India from the ground up from its villages and rural areas as envisioned by Mahatma Gandhi in the struggle for independence. The land acquisition law amendments were put on hold till farmers concerns could be better accomodated, an area of concern for industrial development cited in an editorial in the Hindu newspaper. Fiscal consolidation and inflation targeting have resulted in an average inflation rate of 4.3% for the 4 years of the Modi government. Inflation was over 9% in the last 2 years of the previous Congress UPA government with GDP growth dropping to 5.9% for the last two years. Average GDP growth for four years for the Modi government is 7.3%, even after the changes to implement GST taxation for one national tax eliminating state barriers in interstate commerce and demonetization to fight corruption and black money. Rate of GDP growth should be higher after the gains from the initiatives and the new GST integration of the country are felt, with increase in investment and FDI, after infrastructure improvements and land acquisition arrangements are made. Transportation infrastructure modernization initiative pushes ahead with the first bullet train in the pilot project for Ahmedabad- Mumbai set to start in 2022. This is a $17 billion project financed for $13 billion by the Japanese government at 0.1% loan for 50 years, moratorium on repayments for 20 years, using E5 Shinkansen series technology. Implementation of this project on a sound financial basis should lead to transformation of the Indian rail network, raising the level of technology implementation across the entire Indian rail system. Such an achievement would rival the first introduction of railways into India in the nineteenth century under the British. A new bankruptcy law is intended to free up capital for investment by putting behind the large number of non performing loans in the Indian banking system. Changes made by the central bank RBI are designed to speed up this process so that loss making enterprises are absorbed, consolidated or shut down, a legacy from the earlier period.     ...

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For National Governance Day the Library of Congress has recordings of the poetry and talks given by Atal Bihari Vajpayee in an audio page. These recordings were made by Vajpayee himself at his prime minister's residence in Delhi in 2001 and are in his own voice. As poet, philosopher, foreign minister, Leader of the Opposition and prime minister in India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee embodied the vision of the generation that started with Mohandas Gandhi in the 1920's through Govind Vallabh Pant and Lal Bahadur Shastri in the Hindi speaking heartland. A vision that is the basis of the sab ka vikas, sab ka viswas, sab ka prayas development drive of today based on good governance.  Ao phira se diya jalaem- come let us light the candle again, the sun dims, come let us light the candle again-  is one of the classics from Vajpayee as India looks to 2025 and ahead for National Governance Years. Jita jagata rashtrapurusha is a poem on national unity, more spirited than even the national anthem itself. ...

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NYT's Jeanna Smialek says there are lower inflation expectations with the Fed in the fight. This will help the economy in 2024, and help president Biden in managing the economy. Slower rent increases, and declining demand for housing, cars, with higher interest rates sharply increasing mortgage payments and car leases, is helping to slow inflation. Lower inflation expectations help because buyers are less willing to pay higher prices and falling demand acts to slow price increases by retailers and manufacturers. The Fed's fight against inflation without letting up, and China's slowing economy have reduced demand to where inflation expectations are set to be much lower by 2024.

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China generates 53% of its emissions from coal in May 2024. All the remaining from non fossil sources. Two factors are evident, yet both do not indicate a big fall off in fossil emissions from this point just a plateauing effect with it flattening out. The first is that China is putting in solar and wind at 8 times the level of the US, taking up two thirds of world solar and wind installations. The second is that the one third of emissions from construction and real estate is falling off because that industrial sector has collapsed. Overall the future points to slowing of emissions as China comes only gradually down from that 53%. What happens in China makes a huge impact on climate change. India has also committed to climate change action and meeting targets early under PM Modi so that India as it industrializes will not follow the path of jumping fossil emissions China had. This is useful to know as the US and EU, UK, expand solar and wind. It is important that the US stay committed to climate change action something missing from the Republican platform for 2024. Delaying climate change action will impose huge costs on the US that could be about 1 trillion dollars if it is stalled now and is taken up in 2028. ...

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The 7 Priorities listed in India's Budget for April 2023 to March 2024 provide a roadmap for the next 25 years to 2047 when India marks 100 years as an independent nation. These are-Inclusive Development Reaching the last mile, Infrastructure and investment, Unleashing the potential Green growth, Youth power, Financial sector

Reaching the last mile- Gandhi's idea- "Ask yourself if the step you contemplate is of any use to him or her (the poorest and weakest man or woman you have seen), will he or she gain anything by it? Will it restore to him (or her) control of their life and destiny."

A fund will be setup for Agri-startups. A National Digital Library will be set up for children and adolescents and States will be encouraged to setup physical libraries at panchayat and ward levels.

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The world depends on rare earths supplies for automobiles, mobile phones, and jet planes. The Washington Post says the US can take up the strategic vulnerability challenge presented by rare earth's supplies 80% control by China in 2026. The Washington Post looks at the US Rare Earths planning- US government as buyer, faster permitting and predictable rules needed to setup US supply chain by 2030. China's Rare earths monopoly can be loosened but not in 2 years says the Washington Post. It will take 5-7 years by 2030 or 2032. Countries such as the US, Canada, Australia, Malaysia and Brazil are resource rich places where rare earth can be mined by the US. for the US government and US companies. Australia's Lynas is the largest non-Chinese company It has a $96 million contract with the US War Departent. America's MP Materials is building domestic supply and is expanding production at Mountain Pass, California. MP Materials is building a rare earths magnet manufacturing plant in Northlake, Texas for $1.25 billion. MP Materials has a "transformational public-private partnership with the US War Department. As long as the US remains the buyer private companies can step up their development of rare earths around the world in the best locations. European Union and India have a separate plan for rare earths supplies of their own with large investments that should further diversify and create new supply chains for rare earths in Asia, Africa and Latin America. ...

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Economic growth in India has slowed to 6.9% for the June to September period 2011, compared with the prior year, according to a government report. The sequence of rate increases by India's central bank have failed to slow inflation, and foreign investment is declining. Economists now forecast growth at 6% for 2012, a low rate of growth for India, which has a growing population approaching 1.2 billion people and serious infrastructure problems. This creates a scenario of stagflation- high inflation and low growth. The fears are now for a combination of high government debt, infrastructure issues, and lack of foreign investment. This is leading to moves by the Indian government to bring up long delayed efforts in the area of opening the retail industry to foreign investment. And lifting quotas on foreign ownership of Indian bonds, allowing foreign pension managers into India. The value of the Indian currency has declined 15%, in 3 months since August 2011. The eurozone crisis and the combination of slowgrowth and high unemployment in the U.S. are leading to foreign investors withdrawing from emerging markets, with a sharp impact on India. A combination of domestic and international factors are hitting India after two decades of high growth. ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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Spain's bond auction on April 3, 2012 for 2.59 billion euros showed yields up by one percentage point to 5.7% on its 10 year bonds. Spain's banks are using funds borrowed from the ECB under its Long Term Financing Operation to buy Spain's government bonds. Spanish banks bought 39 billion of government bonds in Jan and Feb 2012. Spain has raised so far 47% of the planned funding for 2012.

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President Macron announces a curfew from 9.00 pm to 6.00 am in Paris and eight other metropolitan regions of France covering about a third of the population. The cities are in addition to Paris region, Grenoble, Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier, Saint Etienne, Rouen, Toulouse.  Macron said "we have to act now." The president called for bringing the daily cases which have reached a high of 27,000 by October 14 to about 3000 or 5000. About 1600 of the 5000 ICU beds in France are now taken for coronavirus cases and the curfew is an effort to keep the numbers from jumping as they did in March  and April 2020. To do this he said: "we won't be leaving the restaurant after 9.00 pm and we won't be partying with friends because we know that that's where the contamination risk is greatest." Macron made it clear that scientists are all in agreement on the pandemic continuing till the summer of 2021. He urged people to limit gatherings at home to 6 people and wear masks.  Financial support will be given to people affected by the curfew in the hospitality industry.  Anyone found outdoors after 9.00 pm will be fined 135 euros and 10 times that for repeat offences.  ...