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The Indian public from retired businessmen, farmers, students, and the press are coming out in support of anti-corruption leader Anna Hazare's call for effective legislation to control corruption of public officials in India. This comes after a number of corruption scandals and lack of action from the Congress government. The government's bill in parliament - introduced after pressure from public opinion- sets up an ombudsman or Lokpal agency, which would exclude from its jurisdiction the very public officials over whom it was meant to exercize oversight. Under the government's bill the prime minister, the public officials in the bureaucracy and the judiciary would be excluded. This has set up a confrontation with an increasingly exasperated public, with Hazare's protest fast in central New Delhi as the catalyst for protest across the country. The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament that he sees it as an issue of parliamentary sovereignty, as Hazare's protest is for a version of the bill that he has drafted to be adopted. But the public's sense is that Hazare is only responding with his own draft of the bill because of the government's effort to make only a token effort by not giving the anti-corruption body the powers it needs to function effectively. The response has brought thousands of demonstrators from around the country to Tihar jail where Hazare is being held by the government after his arrest. The situation is reminiscent of the protests against the British imperial government by Mohandas Gandhi, and in this sense has serious implicatons for how the country is governed. Corruption was prevalent in India during the days of the license Raj in the period 1950-1990 when business needed government permits in the closed economy of the Nehru period, and corruption existed in the bureaucracy in its delivery of public services. Since 1990 as the economy opened up and the growth rate increased corruption at all levels of government has in some ways increased and become embedded in the bureaucracy and government. This hurts the poor and the middle class the most, as corruption acts as a tax on the delivery of public services and infrastructure development, both badly needed in an emerging market country....

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Thomas Frank describes how things went wrong in America by drawing the contrast between Martha's Vineyard and Decatur, Illinois. In 1946 he says a typical executive's salary was only 2 times that of a worker at a Caterpillar plant in Decatur, Illinois. By 2016 this had changed to where the top executive at Caterpillar was making over 400 times the wage of a typical worker at a Caterpillar plant. Democratic politicians he said had moved away from their working class base towards places like Martha's Vineyard. For Republicans the embrace of tax cutting, the deficit, and cuts in education and healthcare, entitlements, to the exclusion of everything else in a recession environment led to the rise of Trump and the rejection of stands on these issues- including amazingly the embrace of a $5.3 trillion increase in the deficit under the Trump plan estimated by economists and a recession after a temporary boost.  Inserted into this were the culture wars, immigration, with the change to mass deportation as a solution to immigration problems. ...

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The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...

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A critical part of the Affordable Care Act is the setup of marketplaces or exchanges to let people without insurance buy individual health plans. Some states setup their own exchanges, and some states let the federal government step in and run them. To help the lower middle class and poor the Act provides health subsidies to buy insurance in the exchanges, and 85% of customers in the exchanges qualify for this benefit. The U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 in 2015, compared to a tight vote in 2012 on the Affordable Care Act, to maintain the health subsidies. Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion, saying "Congress passed the Affordable Care Act to improve health insurance markets, not destroy them." Justice Scalia dissented calling it "interpretive jiggery-pokery." Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito Jr. dissented. Voting in favor were Justices Anthony Kennedy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Justice Kennedy dissented in the 2000 case. The challengers petition to the courts was based on a reading of phrases in the Affordable Act which had not occurred to the writers of the law. The reading suggests only people enrolled in state setup exchanges are eligible for subsidies. If the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs the 6.4 million Americans who are enrolled in the federal exchanges would lose the subsidies provided under the law and lose health insurance. And the economic foundations of the Affordable Act would be undermined with insurance companies required to provide insurance to all regardless of pre-existing conditions and subsidies removed, leaving the companies with sicker pool of customers resulting in destabilizing the exchanges and higher premiums. The court ruled in favor of an interpretation that is compatible with the whole law and the intentions of the statute to help the middle class and the poor buy health insurance. The chaos in the insurance markets that would result in going with the plaintiffs because of a careless writing of a phrase, was uppermost in the majority's mind. Chief Justice Roberts emphasized this, saying- "The statutory scheme compels us to reject petitioners' interpretation, because it would destabilize the individual insurance market in any state with a federal exchange and likely create the very 'death spirals' that Congress designed the act to avoid." This case originated with 4 plaintiffs from Virginia who challenged the IRS regulation that said subsidies were allowed regardless of whether the exchanges were run by the state or the federal government, arguing that this was at odds with the particular phrase in the law that was ambiguous about federal exchanges eligibility for health subsidies. Judge Roger Gregory of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virgina, ruled that the phrase was indeed ambiguous, but the IRS was owed deference in its opinion. Chief Justice Roberts made it clear that this was not a case for the IRS, saying "it is instead our task to determine the correct reading." ...

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U.S. Senator Ben Sasse suggests an alternative approach of simply repealing the Affordable Care Act called Obamacare and replacing it at a later date. This is endorsed by president Trump. This is the new Republican strategy in July 2017. Forty nine senators voted in favor of this repeal in 2015, when president Obama vetoed this legislation. Two more senators are expected to support repeal according to Ben Sasse.

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The Trump campaign still operates on the basis of the idea "Let Trump be Trump." It is only now beginning the effort to set up a campaign organization for the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire, intending to do this with with lean structure at the top. On policy proposals Trump says he will rely on experts in each field. For a tax plan he has asked advisors to come up with a plan that simplifies and cuts taxes, aids the middle class, tackles abuses such as corporate "inversions" and to "tax the paper pushing hedge-fund guys." Jeb Bush has adopted a similiar position in the tax plan he has announced. Trump appeals to voters with anti-establishment rhetoric appealing to the average voter, mixed with a dose of individual bravado. The political organization has Corey Lewandowski as campaign manager, Michael Glassner as national political director, Daniel Scavino as head of social media, and Hope Hicks as press secretary. Lewandowski's only experience is heading the 2002 re-election effort for Republican Bob Smith to the U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, in which John Sununu was elected. The campaign lacks the experience and ground support for a long effort in the Republican primaries, and experts say it would face a vigorous television ad campaign from opponents as the primaries get closer....

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Labor in the U.S. stood firm in its opposition to bills in Congress granting fast track trade authority and promoting the TPP trade agreement. The bill failed to clear the House of Representatives as labor unions lobbied hard against the legislation. For the first time public sector unions of teachers, firefighters, and other service workers actively worked with industrial labor unions. This is a result of a realization in labor unions that the decline of communities with the closing of plants reduces the demand for public sector workers, and reduces the revenues of cities leading to cuts in services for firefighters, teachers. The low wages in manufacturing with globalization, also reduces the support of factory workers for higher wages for teachers, firefighters and other public sector workers. Also adding to support for workers is the realization that the investment in infrastructure is now a higher priority, as experts say most of the gains in trade are already behind us. A general feeling that the decline in U.S. manufacturing is not good for the country, the difficulty of competing with countries which do not enforce rules for fair practice and treatment of workers, and a general sense that the lowering of wages in manufacturing is both hurting the middle class and increasing inequality, also have created support in the media....

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This NYT editorial points out that the cuts to Medicaid amount to taking out a fourth of its budget and are sure to hurt low income Americans. The cuts are about $880 billion over 10 years for Medicaid. The $300 billion less in subsidies over ten years is likely to hurt the elderly. It also points out that removing the individual mandate will make it harder to reduce premiums as fewer healthy adults offset the costs of sick patients.

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The credit lending boom in Brazil is leading to rising levels of household indebtedness and credit card abuses. In Brazil and Chile consumer lending regulations are lax. Credit card interest rates in Brazil can be as shockingly high as 220% annually. The household debt to income levels were 70% at the end of 2010 in Chile, according to the Central Bank. In Brazil this ratio is 40%, according to LCA Consultores. Consumer appliance and electronics stores such as La Polar and Casa Bahias are lightly regulated and offer lower priced products to a new class of consumers in lower classes that have no experience with consumer credit. La Polar is under investigation in Chile for increasing rates and changing the terms on loans unilaterally for 418,000 customers. In Brazil the federal prosecutors office is charging banks such as Itau, HSBC, and Santander with $300 million of illegal bank charges on clients from 2008 to 2010.

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Europe responds with platitudes and vague references to "benefits for everyone" and "detrimental" without facing up to the facts. How many American cars do you see on the streets of Germany? in Berlin or Frankfurt?- or Japan? in Tokyo or Osaka?-or South Korea? in Seoul? And how long has this been going on - since the 1980's. Europe's answer to the Marshall Plan and Japan's and China's to post war American help for recovery, was to exclude American cars and other products. GM and Ford have pulled out of China and so has VW. China's plan is to flood the world with electric cars, and Japan's to flood the world with hybrids. For far too long America has relied on capitalism that has no state involvement. In this kind of competition with hidden subsidies and national planning at the core of industrial growth in Asia. The US government has to have state involvement in it's auto, steel, aluminium, and chip industries, not to create trade disturbances but to create an even playing field for all, and rebuild a middle class destroyed by unfair trading practices of Asian nations and the EU, including Canada and Mexico which are simply used as bases to ship to the US. Ford makes 80% of its cars in the USA and GM can make the investments in new plants to raise its production from 60% in the USA to 80%. South Korea's Hyundai and Kia are investing $21 billion to make in the USA. Toyota and Nissan, VW, BMW and Mercedes can do the same.   ...

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The U.S. House of Representatives votes to repeal and replace the Affordable care Act 217-213. Moderates were won over by an addition of $8 billion  to add coverage for a popular feature of the ACA that covered people for pre-existing conditions.  The bill that passed gives credits of $2000 to $4000 a year, depending mostly on age, upto $14,000 for a family. Credits are reduced for individuals making over $75,000 a year or families making over $150,000. There is no mandated insurance coverage. This trims the federal budget deficit, yet also is expected to keep 24 million more Americans without health coverage after 10 years. The bill now goes to the Senate where moderate Republicans are worried that this may increase premiums for older people, one of the drawbacks of the earlier version of the House Republican bill.

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The size of the stimulus package announced at 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) involves only 1 trillion yuan in new spending according to analysts, the larger number was announced to bolster consumer and company sentiment. Export order are falling quickly from 27% increase in 2007 over 2006, to 21% increase in Sept 2008, to 19% increase in October 2008. over same month prior year. But imports are falling more quickly which is not good news for European exporters like Germany and for American exporters except for infrastructure exporters, and for commodities exporters like Brazil, Australia and Canada. In October imports slowed from 21% in September to 15% in October, which actually increased China's trade surplus from $29 billion in September to $35 billion in October. Exports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil are down and machinery from Germany. For China's urban middle class and rural poor the one relief is in inflation for fuel and food, the consumer price index rose 4% in October compared to 4.6% in September and down from a peak of 8.7% in February 2008. The spending will come in infrastructure including railways. Railways construction spending will be increased from 300 billion yuan in 2008 to 350 billion yuan and double to 600 billion yuan in 2009. This is expected to create 80,000 new jobs to replace jobs lost in the toys and furniture export sectors and other job losses. ...

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Hillary Clinton returns on September 15, 2016, to the campaign trail after 3 days of rest to recover from pneumonia. She chose to speak at the University of North Carolina in Greensboro, with N. Carolina  now considered a state that is winnable, and with a new focus on young people on campuses where she wants to regain her once large lead in the summer. She said that the break had given her time to reflect on what it is she represents. "The campaign trail doesn't really encourage reflection and its important to sit with your thoughts every now and then. It helped me reconnect with what this campaign is all about." Adding that it was about quality health care, financial security, clean water and other critical needs of people.

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The U.S. falls to 19th rank in the Social Progress Index. This Index is another measure of how well a country is doing in meeting the needs of its average citizen for education, health care, opportunities in life. Experts say GDP and GDP growth alone are a poor indicator of how well a country is doing. High levels of student debt, the aftermath of the mortgage crisis job losses and low interest rates that have slashed the average person's savings, lower access to education and health care with high costs, lower wages and job loss in manufacturing, are pushing the U.S. down the ladder in this ranking. It is also showing up in the domestic political unrest from poorer working class and lower middle class people. Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Netherlands, do the best and are in the top ten in the rankings. 

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This report in the Economist points to the improved situation for Mexico after the scare from Trump's plans to build the wall and deport large numbers of immigrants. The peso dropped by 15% between mid November 2016 and January 2017, but has since recovered, and non-oil exports were up 5.5% in February 2017 over prior year with the manufacturing growth in the U.S.  Growth forecasts are now up from about 1% GDP growth previously to 2% for 2017, close to the 2.3% in 2016. Much of the change in mood in Mexico is a result of the failure of the early travel bans being blocked in the courts, the failure to get health care legislation through Congress, and the effort by the trade advisers and economic advisers around Trump to move Trump's positions more to the centre and closer to traditional Republican party positions. Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, says " a sensible agreement" can be reached with Mexico. Peter Navarro, trade adviser, talks about making "a mutually beneficial regional powerhouse." Robert Lighthizer, a veteran from the Reagan days, is likely to be made the new U.S. Trade representative. Still as the Economist points out the "20% border adjustment tax" continues to be supported by Paul Ryan in Congress to pay for tax cuts. But certainly the mood has lifted in Mexico in the first 100 days. This is true for economic policy in relation to China and Germany, and the close circle of Ross, National Economic Council head Gary Cohn, and Secretary of State Tillerson is moving Trump to the centre in policy statements to get things done. Mexico is faced with internal challenges of reestablishing the rule of law, improving infrastructure, reducing red tape and corruption, addressing problems in the education system, to promote economic growth. These challenges may prove to be as large as the external challenges were once thought to be. ...