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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Daniel Yergin cites an estimate by IHS Cambridge Energy Associates which shows oil from shale and dense rock, which was about 1 million barrels a day in 2011, could reach 3 million barrels a day 2020. North Dakota where much of the production is taking place is now fourth in oil production in the U.S. after Texas, Alaska, and California, and is likely to move up to second place. U.S. imports of oil come primarily from Canada 25%, Mexico 11%, Venezuela 9%, and the Persian Gulf 16%. Canadian oil sands development has increased production and the completion of the Keystone pipeline will increase the share of oil imports from Canada. This is shifting the dynamic of oil away from the Persian Gulf, with the volatile politics in the region, and more towards North America.
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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Raghuram Rajan interviewed by BW's Peter Coy. Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks posed by the excessive leveraging in the financial system at the 2005 Jackson Hole conference. After the excessive monetary easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve, Rajan questions the wisdom of keeping interest rates too low for too long. He joins John Taylor, George W. Bush presidential advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon in making this point. Rajan was the chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006. He is the author of a 2010 book, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures still Threaten the World Economy. The fault lines he describes are rising inequality in the US and the dependence of the US on loans from China.
NITI Aayog, PM's Office Original article ›
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As the coronavirus pandemic reaches the 20 month mark in October 2021 and the government reaches a target of 1 billion vaccinations given in India, prime minister Modi talks about his experience handling the vaccination drive in this interview. It covers a wide range of topics from his initial experiences in development in Gujarat, translating this experience to the national setting, the multiple yojanas or projects from Swachh Bharat (Clean India), toilets for all, bank accounts for the whole population, cooking gas for women, decisions taken for Aadhar, digitization, GST. His 35 years spent in poverty as a social worker that gave him a clear idea of the aspirations of the working poor. On the achievement of one billion vaccinations- It was the careful preparation that happened as early as March 2020 that carefully anticipated all possible problems and tackled each one of them that made it possible. "Vaccinating such a large number of people comes with its own share of complexities. Ensuring proper temperature control of complexities, cold chain infrastructure across the length and breadth of the country, timely delivery from the manufacturing plant to the remotest vaccination delivery point, supply of needles and syringes, training of vaccinators and preparing for adverse reactions, from quick registration to certificate generation to reminder for next appointment. We needed to look at the entire logistics, planning, and progress of the vaccination drive." To understand the person completely one has to go back to the origins of his experience, skills learned, and his inspiration for the effort. Modi entered the chief minister's office in the western Indian state of Gujarat facing the Arabian sea in 2001. He entered office at the time of the Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat and describes his taking the chief minister's office as accidental as he had been a social worker for 30 years. "Let alone reluctance to join electoral politics, I had nothing to do with the political domain itself. My surroundings, my inner world, my philosophy- these were very different. Right from my younger days,my bent was spiritual. The philosophy of "Jan Seva Hi Prabhu Seva" Serving the people is akin to serving the Divine, which was propounded by Ramakrishna Paramahamsa and Swami Vivekananda inspired me. It became the driving force in whatever I did." In 2014 it was with the inspiration from Swami Vivekananda and taking up Vivekananda's vision for the Indian people that Modi began his campaign to lead the BJP party. It may be looking back that Vivekananda guided Modi in all his projects for a Clean India, Jal Jeevan, Indian infrastructure that benefits the last man in the queue in the country, commitment to hard work. "Global experience says government should be there for those whom nobody is there. Government's whole focus should be on helping them." To do this, to meet the needs of that last person left out in India, he could see that old notions of opposites had to be set aside. "Outdated theories such as the private sector vs the public sector, government vs. people, rich vs. poor, urban vs. rural, are still on people's minds and they try to fit everything into this." Governments since independence in 1947 followed the same political and economic thought. After Gandhi negotiated with the British government for self rule or Swaraj an experimental form was set up with provincial governments ministries with limited powers formed in the 1930's through elections. Many of these ministries had the same problems that were found after independence in 1947, as one sees in the writings in the Gandhi library. They lasted for a few years before they were dissolved by the British government. These problems were more evident under Nehru and Indira Gandhi right into the 1970's and beyond. This was followed by a period of relative stagnation. Most ministries failed to seriously address India's economic problems, urbanization issues and agricultural issues remained unaddressed, and industry building was done with a limited vision and scaled down goals. In some ways the elections created a political class interested in perpetuating itself and did not build administrations based on learning, hard work and delivering on projects with scaled up targets to match the dire needs of the country. One sees similarities with France before 1960, before De Gaulle. A mosaic of peoples all separate from each other, with agriculture the main occupation, and most agriculture done the way it was in the nineteenth century by hand and using horses and cattle- this is the picture of France shown in Nous Paysouns, We Farmers, a documentary on Le Monde French television in October 2021. It was De Gaulle who supported a shift to presidential form of government for France that helped with the transformation through modernization and infrastructure development. Tractors were introduced in 1960 to mechanize agriculture. Road, bridges, rail transport, logistics were planned in the way Gati Shakti master plan for India is now being executed. There can be no transformation without this. Unstable coalition governments in France and lack of clarity and decision making before 1960 made such development impossible. India entered such a period in the 1970's. "The politics of our country is such that till now, we have seen only one model in which governments are run to build the next government (sarkar banane ke liye chalayi jaati haye). My fundamental thinking is different. I believe we have to run the government to build the nation (desh banane ke liye sarkar chalani haye)."  Chalta haye, Chalne do. What is will not change. Families, farmers and workers in India, for a long time accepted this without questioning.  "I take decisions based on Gandhiji's talisman that sees how my decisions will benefit or harm the poorest or weakest person." "While taking decisions, I stop even if the slightest of vested interests is visible to me. The decision should be pure and authentic, and if the decision passes through all these tests, then I firmly move forward to implement such a decision."           ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Ford's plans to cut product capacity in Europe by closing the car plant in Genk, Belgium, and indications for shutting down a plant in the UK. After the plant closures Ford will operate at 85% of capacity by 2015 instead of 71%, according to a Barclays analyst. The action taken by Ford takes place as pretax losses for 2012 mount to $1.3 billion, acccording to Morgan Stanley.
New York Times Original article ›
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The CBO annual report on the budget and economic outlook shows a deficit of $1.1 trillion for the current fiscal year, a decline of $200 billion from the prior year. Health care spending is a key factor driving the deficit. Cost of spending on healthcare programs is expected to double in the next 10 years, increasing by 8% a year and reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Indian and Chinese leaders agreed to increase trade from the current $60 billion to $100 billion by 2015. China agreed to open its consumer markets to Indian pharmaceuticals, information technology and agricultural products to better balance trade between the two countries. During the first 10 months of 2010, China exported goods valued at $32.9 billion dollars to India and India exported $17 billion to China.
Detroit Free Press Original article ›
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Ford CFO Lewis Booth says that Ford is serious about the $34.3 billion in debt on its balance sheet and is working on that, even as the situation improves. Ford is restoring profit sharing for workers- about $450 for hourly workers. Ford reported $2.7 billion profits in 2009 and is set to do so again in 2010, after $30 billion in losses from 2005 to 2008.
Economist Original article ›
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Researchers Rauh and Novy-Marx, estimate that states in the U.S. have pension shortfall of as much as $3.4 trillion, and the municipalities have pension shortfall of $574 billion. Seven states are expected to exhaust their pension assets by 2010, and half will run out of money by 2027. Several states have promised annual payments of 30% of tax revenues after their pension funds are exhausted.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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A slowing economy is expected to worsen the situation for nonperforming loans at India's banks. At State Bank of India nonperforming loans are at 5.7% on total loans at June 30, 2013, increasing from 5% the prior year. Standard & Poors figures show the ratio of nonperforming loans increasing sector wide from 3.4% in March 2013 to 3.9% in March 2014 and 4.4% in March 2015.
New York Times Original article ›
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New Commerce Secretary, Gary Locke, has contacts with the Chinese leadership, and has years of experience on China trade issues. He was Governor of Washington state, which has about a third of its jobs dependent on foreign trade and looks west to the Asia Pacific region for growth. He is the country's only Chinese-American governor, as governor of Washington state from 1997 to 2005.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Richard Barley points out that Italy has some breathing room even as the ten year yields on Italian debt reaches 6.15%, up 1.5 percentage points in 2011. Existing Italian debt has an interest rate of 4% and an average maturity of 7 years, according to Morgan Stanley. This means higher interest rates on new debt will take some time to have a serious impact. Fitch's estimates are that if 10 year yields on Italian debt went up to 7%, interest payments would go up to 6.1% of GDP by 2015 from 4.8% of GDP. This gives Italy some time to come up with solutions for competitiveness and growth issues. Italy's growth rate was only 0.1% for the 1st quarter of 2011, and debt is 119% of GDP. Italy also has a primary budget surplus which puts it in a better situation than other southern European economies.
Original article ›
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Jaguar Land Rover is dropping the Land Rover name and will be called JLR with an all electric line planned by 2036. The holding company JLR will have 4 brands- Range Rover at the high end, the off-road Defender made in Slovakia, the Discovery as a family brand, and the Jaguar now priced at the high end. The strategy is designed to cope with stiff competition from Tesla and other EV brands, by moving it upscale- the average price of JLR going to 77,000 pounds from 44,000 pounds.  Batteries will be sourced from a new gigafactory in Europe built by Tata Motors, the parent company. A new Range Rover all electric will come out in 2024. With the new strategy only 330,000 vehicles would take it to breakeven instead of 660,000. JLR turned profitable in the last financial year generating cash flow of $1.3 billion pounds in last 6 months. It will invest 15 billion pounds over 5 years. 29,000 employees out of 40,000 will be upskilled to support the all new electric line to build, sell and service new EV's. ...
WSJ Original article ›
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Japan's 38 year old Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi sets himself up as a role model by taking two weeks off as paternity leave over 3 months after the birth of his first child.  Mr. Koizumi says in a country where paternity leave is not common: "I hope my child care leave will serve as a spur for everyone in the Environment Ministry to take child care leave without hesitation and advance a style of work in which that is easy." Japan's Shinzo Abe government encourages men to take childcare leave, as this is part of the campaign to get more working age mothers into the workplace. In Japan eligible employees can take upto 52 weeks off of parental leave at reduced pay, accordoing to OECD. The government hopes to get 13% of fathers to take paternity leave in 2020, compared to only 6% in 2019. One reason for the low rate is culture in the workplace- most employees fear bosses and colleagues do not think favorably of this. Making this culture change is the difficult part. ...
The Guardian Original article ›
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EU foreign policy is process driven and requires the agreement of 27 countries in the EU, which is called the coalition of the unwilling. British foreign policy is ideologically driven. After the Brexit deal was reached in the last week of December 2020, no mention was made of coordination in foreign policy. The Boris Johnson government has quietly dropped the whole idea of cooperation with the EU in foreign affairs that the government of Theresa May supported. May supported deep cooperation between Britain and the Eu at the Munich security conference in 2018.  Today most cooperation is absent and Britain sees itself freed from the constraint of coordinating its foreign policy. Britain is now free to act independently in foreign policy they very reason for Brexit. It means Britain will negotiate its own relationships with other countries based on what is good for  Britain. British euroskeptics were always critical of the French way of saying France would act independently in making foreign policy and at the same time saying it was working within the EU. ...
The Times Original article ›
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Most questions about the vaccines from Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna are answered in this Q&A in The Times.  The Oxford vaccine is the only vaccine that is being provided at cost to the public at a cost of 4 pounds, Pfizer using German technology at 15 pounds and Moderna from Cambridge, Massachusetts, at 28 pounds. The Oxford vaccine can be stored in a fridge, the others use mRNA technology of messenger RNA which requires ultra low temperature storage. Astra Zeneca could have handled the trials and methodology for results in a better way. As the two trials one that produced results of 62% and the other results of 90% cannot be combined to give results of 70% but are two distinct and separate trials. However too much emphasis has been placed on the vaccine, as other prevention measures remain important for 2021. Other vaccines are being developed in Britain with new technology and in India by ICMR which are in trials stage and about which not enough is known. The Russian and Chinese vaccines have not released detailed data limiting their use around the world. ...
WSJ Original article ›
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Anti-trust challenges to the Apple-Google duopoly in the U.S. and Europe. For years the regulatory process did not work as intended to maintain competition and open markets. In 2020 after years of neglect of proper regulatory functioning, fines of up to 10% of revenues are put in legislation for online harm or anti-competitive behaviour. Regulators oce seen as captive to special interests, moved cautiously in the beginning, and are now following public opinion. The bill in Europe could take years before it is passed in the cumbersome lengthy legislative processes of the European Union. Legal processes could take years. During and after the pandemic a complete reassessment of priorities as a society both in the U.S., Europe and other nations needs to happen before capital investment can be directed into infrastructure, health and education, as tech has reached a point of diminishing returns. With a redirection of capital to vital needs of society and the national will to maintain open competitive markets that goes with a change in popular perceptions of what is good and important much progress can be made. ...
The Indian Express Original article ›
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How financing for ambitious infrastructure and Atman Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliant economy) development is being financed in India is explained here. The central bank acting as debt manager for the government of India is pushing government securities to trade in lots of 5 crores or more, seven crores being about 1 million dollars. This is now being traded among commercial entities. These are essentially 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month treasury bills, and long term debt instruments for the government that run to maturities of 5 to 40 years. Retail investors are being provided opportunities to participate in a different pathway. Currently institutional investors such as banks, mutual funds, insurance companies are major participants.The government needs 1.2 million crores or $175 billion from the financial markets to fund its ambitious capital expenditures for 2021 financial year. To do this it turns to financing such as government securities. Higher demand for capital leads to higher interest rates. The RBI and the government want to keep interest rates down and one way its to broaden the base of investors for government securities which it is now doing. ...
DW.COM Original article ›
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An investment of $1000 in Deutsche Bank shares in 2015 would have led to loss of most of the capital - loss of 75% of it, says this report in DW.com. For years Deutsche Bank chased profitability but the results are dismal. Recently 18,000 jobs were slashed and the bank is now accepting the inevitable shrinking. It all started with with chasing profitability in the U.S. as an investment bank leading to deep losses during the 2009 financial crisis. While German and Swedish teachers as shown in this weeks stories from Europe show struggle to make ends meet on low salaries, jobs in banking have continued to pay even when their are steep losses as at Deutsche Bank. This report argues about who is responsible for high severance pay at banks investors, shareholders, supervisory boards or regulators. Ultimately it is about what choices a society makes, and about the importance it gives to education compared to other occupations, and to good governance across the board without exceptions. Developed countries sometimes fail to learn the lessons of the past in the chaos of the times. ...
The Times Original article ›
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The story of how Jurgen Klopp took Liverpool to the Champions League and Premier League titles in 2020. For all the illusion that the titles were a procession Liverpool started out with problematic losses to Dortmund, Seville, Napoli. It was the hard work and rigorous practice, self discipline, and renewal, the always focussing on the next step and how to do better regardless of how things look- this has helped Klopp get the team to where it is in world soccer. Continuous improvement setting your own bar of what it is to be to do the work right. In a small town overlooking Lake Geneva soccer practice takes place every day at 7 am, 11 am, 5 pm, in preseason. No distractions, no commercial obligations. Only the coach, players, and staff. Steudtner, German surfer invited by Klopp helped the team cool down in training by focussing underwater on happier places, taking a lot of the stress off the minds of the players. Hold for 30, 40, 60 seconds. Soon everyone could do it. The aim to cool down each player's mindset. A form of meditation. ...
The Guardian Original article ›
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The Fabian Society suggests extending the freeze on income thresholds to generate 12 billion pounds. The reasoning is that it would be fair to most of the middle and lower income households- only the top 20% would pay higher. “The chancellor  (Reeves) recently she wanted to ensure that those with the ‘broadest shoulders pay their fair share of tax’. Our modelling suggests that half (49%) of the revenue raised would come from the highest-earning fifth of households. Conversely, the poorest fifth of households would bear just 4% of the cost,” he writes. “With our public services in dire need of investment, and our public finances under great pressure, there are few good options. Continuing the freeze in income tax thresholds for a further two years is surely one of the better ones." Reeves has been a poor choice for chancellor throughout this Labor administration as she lacked the ideas to go with the grassroots and the people all across Britain struggling to live beyond paycheck to paycheck including the middle class, and follow Labour's own instincts about what was right for Britain at this time in 2025. In this case 49% of the revenue would come from the highest earning fifth of the households and only 4% from the poorest fifth of households. Such choices have inevitably to be made and a lot is needed for the infrastructure and services that benefit all segments of the population and most the four fifths of the population. ...
New York Times Original article ›
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Russian president Putin talks to journalists at his year end news conference in Dec. 2015. He has sharp words for Turkey, saying Russia's advanced air defence system S-400 is now in place to prevent any attacks on Russian war planes over Syria. And says the costs of the bombing campaign in Syria comes out of the Defense Ministry's training budget. Putin calls Donald trump "a very bright and talented man." He tells Russians that the Russian economy was coming back after a sharp recession. He points to Russian life expectancy at 71 as one achievement of this period, as the government considers raising the retirement age to conserve resources.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Jon Hilsenrath of WSJ provides an illuminating account of how Daniel Tarullo as head of the Large Institution Supervision Coordination Committee has changed the way bank supervision and rules are set for U.S. banks since the days of the 2008 financial crisis. Tarullo started the effort under Ben Bernanke and continues this in 2014-2015 under Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. The New York Fed is seen as ineffective in bank supervision and the supervisory role is now entirely performed under the leadership of Tarullo, assisted by Kenneth Gibson and Timothy Clark. The trio are some of the great unsung heroes of the effort to put the U.S. financial system and the economy on a safer footing.
The Guardian Original article ›
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The CEO of the New York Times and the former director general of the BBC, takes a look at the public discourse in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and in the Brexit campaign, and finds some troubling changes. The use of words that can eaily be picked up by Twitter and social media to attack opponents, the complete disregard for facts, and outright attempts to denigrate and destroy using rhetorical tactics, and a section of the public that has turned away from the facts or is disinterested in facts, is deeply troubling for Mark Thompson. When the public discourse fails, then the politics as a whole starts to collapse, says Thompson. We are children of the enlightenment, says Thompson, and were taught to look underneath statements to discern the truth. This is a crisis in public discourse. Worse it is one in which truth telling by people who say they are outsiders and tell it like it is, is not about telling the truth. Which is what makes it so dangerous. Thompson cites the statement by Michael Gove that "people in this country have had enough of experts," as another dangerous sign. He says it is time that experts make themselves understandable and talk in a way the public can understand. The media needs to explain issues in clear ways, and professional policymakers language of discourse needs to be conveyed in better ways that the public can grasp, in which the Brexit Remain campaign failed, says Thompson. Its important to acknowledge the problem, as the health of our democracies depends on finding solutions to what has happened in 2015-2016 to change the public discourse and let it deteriorate to unimaginable levels.  ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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