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Kenyan politics is conducted along tribal lines since the country's independence in 1963. The Mau Mau rebellion under Jomo Kenyatta involved the Kikuyu tribe. Kikuyus at over 6 million are the largest tribe followed by the Kalenjins at about 5 million and the Luo tibe at about 4 million population. The Kenya African National Union Party of Jomo Kenyatta has run thecountry since independence. Kenyatta till 1978, followed by his vice president Daniel Arap Moi till 2002. Multi party politics since 1992 led to elections conducted purely on tribal lines, with the KANU appealing to Kikuyus, and Kenya Arican Democratic Union under Odinga appealing to Kalenjins. In this election Uhuru Kenyatta the son of the former president is running against Odinga of the KADU, son of the former Opposition leader. The government is also run on patronage with positions handed out to loyalists and tribe supporters. Former U.S. president Obama's Kenyan father could not find a position in Jomo Kenyatta's government because of tribal differences. After the clashes in 2007 with disputed elections the situation has led to further ethnic tensions.   ...

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Spain has under prime minister Pedro built its economy around close relations with China. Here Spanish newspaper El Pais describes the new role of China's chief economic representative He Lifeng sent to negotiate with the US and his success in getting a 90 day reprieve where US brings tariffs to 30% and China to 10%. He replaces Liu He who was educated at US Universities and was fluent in English. Yet because he is only now representing China overseas what is overlooked is Lifeng's extraordinary connections to the economic emergence of China in Asia. He was just graduating as a civil servant in China when president Xi was vice minister of Xiamen, Fujian province. He studied at Xiamen University getting a Ph.D in economics in 1979. He shares the struggles of going through the Great Proleterian Cultural Revolution experienced by Xi in rural areas.  Lifeng has driven development of China's state driven economy, as deputy director of the National Developement and Reform Commission in 2014, and driector in 2017, as Xi emerged as leader of China. ...

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This marks the D Day celebrations for the US in World War II to be held on June 14, Saturday. The president DJT referred to this in his remarks in the White House with German chancellor Merz. It is not just Army Day but the entire war effort under FDR that won World War II under Generals Eisenhower, Marshall and Patton on the European Front against the Nazis occupation of Europe that is being celebrated. DJT again referred to it in an Oval Office meeting on June 10 on the situation in Los Angeles.  Even German chancellor Merz called it Liberation Day for Germany from the Nazis. The Weimar democracy did not survive the years of French imposed high war reparations and hyperinflation leading to the Nazis taking over. US Gen. Pershing was clear that no Armistice should be signed that the war should end with the complete defeat of the Kaiser in Germany and this would have given the US a role it lacked in a final peace settlement that allowed Germany to build a democratic process to replace Prussian militarism. ...

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Mark Gilbert, a visiting associate professsor of European History at the John Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies in Bologna, describes the crisis of the political culture in Italy that goes deeper than the economic crisis and has lasted for most of the post war period. Gilbert says the political parties have avoided implementing financial discipline and opening up the economy for most of the last two decades, except for brief periods, and did not take the opportunity of joining the eurozone to make serious changes. Italy has many parties with the Democratic Party having 25-30% support in the polls and Berluconi's People of Liberty (PdL) having the support of 20-25% of voters. There is also the Northern League, the Third Pole of centrist Catholic parties, the Italy of Values party, and the Ecology Freedom party. Italy lacks a national consensus on making the changes. The risk is that Monti will not have enough time to make the changes, as new elections may be held by April 2013. His government was formed as a government of technocrats led by former EU commissioner Mario Monti, after President Napolitano forced the PdL, the PD, and the Third Pole to work together to support the new government. Changes are needed in the legal system, local government, the health sector, and in the university system. One factor favoring Monti is that 90% of Italians voters are dissatisfied with the political parties, according to Italian think tank ISPI. For Italy the EU crisis has in this sense a positive aspect as it has forced Italy to come to grips with economic and cultural changes under a leadership from outside the political system....

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Fed Governor Kevin Warsh who is an investment banker and was an important participant in shaping the Fed's response to the credit market crises commented about the crisis and what lies ahead at a New York University conference. The credit crisis poses meaningful downside risks to the econmy and especially now as the crisis developes to small businesses and consumers he said suggesting that consumption spending is likely to take the next big hit. He sees credit replacing liquidity as the primary antagonist. For financial markets the curative process is unlikely to be swift or curative. Underscoring the problems ahead- he said we are fighting against the wind. The Fed does not know what to expect whats the next crisis around the corner, as each time things settled down in the last 6 months something else developed because of the crisis in confidence, the perception that the financial architecture itself is not working, and fragility of credit markets. Telling is his remark that a new financial architecture born of the forces of creative destruction is in the early stages of construction. More creative destruction lies ahead before all participants, the mortgage industry, political parties and poiliticians, lenders and financial institutions, homeowners, and the public can be persuaded that some sacrifice will be required of all and things that normally would not be palatable will have to be swallowed to help forge a solution that avoids a downward spiral....

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Alexander Freund of DW.com looks at the BRICs conference in Xiamen, China, and says its members are all facing serious problems at home. China's growth has slowed, and it faces problems with large debt, need to reorient the economy away from dependence on exports, and a bubble in real estate markets. Russia and Brazil are both hit by drop in oil and commodities prices, and Brazil's ruling elite faces corruption charges. South Africa's economy under president Zuma faces problems of mismanagement of the economy and corruption. Only India says Freund, is the bright light in this group. The Modi government in India is working on removing barriers to growth such as bureaucratic hurdles, unification of tax scheme through the new unified GST for the whole country, and efforts to attract foreign investment. In many ways the BRICs has become a thing of the past as China focusses on its own Belt and Road Initiative and tackles its internal problems. The border dispute between India and China at the time of the BRICs conference in Xiamen shows a lack of policy agreement on economic and development priorities between the two major countries in that group. This had the effect of reducing whatever impact BRICs had in the past. The term originated at an American investment bank and it appears to be an odd grouping of countries today. ...

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A senior Indian diplomat, and former ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, says China's action in the June 15 clash at Galwan Valley was the worst violence since 1967. He sees it as a premeditated and well thought out action. His view is that India's relations with China will deteriorate further. That this was an action by the PLA to take territory to what it sees as the LAC or border. For small tactical gains he says "China has strategically lost India." This will impact trade and other relations going forward in his view.  Nothing of this sort was expected says Bambawale. All the agreements put in place since 1993, everything for tranquillity at the border, all the mechanisms, have now collapsed. Bambawale has provided a very lucid and clear account of the relations and the border issues. He goes on to say that Chinese observers have given reasons for the Galwan clash with PLA- that India should stay away from the US and other democracies such as the European Union. Some reflection shows that the opposite has happened. And further reflection would show that the same situation was repeated in the period of transfer from British Empire to Republican India, and from Nationalist China to Communist China from the period 1947 onwards. Different perceptions and different leaderships that gave the perception of gaps between the two countries. In the 1950's after the Korean War Chinese perceptions about India could have led to the incursions that brought China to the borders of India in 1950, similar perceptions of gaps in development and capabilities could have led to the conflict in 1962. From 1993 peace prevailed with India after China entered the World Trade Organization under president Clinton in 2001 following a 10 year effort. Because the focus in China was on development after a series of crises, internal sense of a widening technological gap with the US and Europe, disagreements with the Soviet Union, and the experiments with market economy, internal struggles for democracy. With that period coming to a close as the new trading relationship has led to working class losses in factory jobs in the US, China is faced with protecting its economy as it and the US look at changing supply channels and how it affects both countries. It is a critical time for China as it faces governments in US, France, UK and Canada determined to protect their own interests in manufacturing jobs, renewing supply channels, and in technological advancement. The response is similar to that in 1962 when seen from the Communist party perspective as a gap has opened up with India following China's progress in the 30 year trading relationship with the US and Europe. That gap and the difficult situation China faces today with the US and EU in trade and technology has brought forward the Galwan clash and future clashes in Ladakh and at the border.  As Mr. Jaishnkar, India's Minister of External Affairs as well as former ambassador to China,  has pointed out this is a very different aspirational India that China faces. The same kind of grassroots development that happened in China and rapid pooling of capital, human resources and technology inputs for development is taking place in India, and will continue for the next two decades, quickly bridging any gaps in modernization between the two countries. The difference between a youthful population in India and aging population in China and Japan, is likely to add another dimension. China's Buddhist culture that came from India is not likely to go away, more likely is that China will see a revival of Buddhist ideas of wellness and living more as culture than religion. The experience with British colonialism that prevailed both in India and China, and which from its base in India caused so much grief to China during the Opium wars will recede from memory. Extending borders from historical memory of Japanese incursions into border areas in Manchuria could have led leaders after 1950 in China to extend borders to remote areas in the Arunachal region of India and communist theory books may have created the perception of defensive moves. In the context of an aspirational India similar to China, and no real intention on the part of India to extend itself in any way to China's provinces in Sichuan, this extending of borders as a defensive move will be seen as stemming from memories of Japanese incursions in the 1930's, but simply costly and not relevant in any way to China's own aspirational development and progress. ...

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The story of Ernest Stempel who joined AIG in 1938 on atip from his uncle who was an agent in Panama, attended Fordham Law School at nights, worked for Mr. Starr, and built AIG's overseas business, especially in Asia. He died at age 93, played tennis well into his 80's, remarried 15 years ago to a fashion decorator from Capetown, South Africa, and lived in Bermuda. AIG's founder C.V. Starr was among the first westerners to sell insurance to citizens of China and other Asian countries.

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Mnay people who have engineering degrees and jobs which pay 60,000 to $75,000 in the auto companies are now visiting food banks as they exhaust their unemployment benefits. They live in suburbs of Detroit, in Rochester Hills, in Dearborn Heights, in Taylor and so on. THe unemployment rate has reached 14.1% and there are more layoffs ahead. THis is also affecting the health care business as companies cut benefits. By the end of of 2009 100,000 residents will have lost their benefits, according to the state's unemployment insurance agency. THe US Department of Agriculture provides 20% of the food aid in the state to food banks and is watching the situation closely. In May, the caseload of the Michigan Food Assistance Program, which adminsters the USDA's food stamp aid for the state rose to 719,000 households, up 3.1% in April and nearly triple the figure in 2000. THe USDA has doubled its shipments to Gleaners, a food bank, which says it is stretched, as it does not serve the once affluent suburbs....

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R.E.O. is lingo for "Real Estate Owned," the term for homes taken in by banks that are from foreclosures. Reomac is the industry group that specializes in the sales of such homes. And "REO tsunami" refers to the flood of some 700,000 bank properties now on the market nationwide. Therre were just 100,000 in 2006. In February, nearly 45% of the home sales natinwide were called short sales in which homeowners under duress sell a property for less than their mortgage, according to the National Associaiton of Realtors. These sales have worsened a natiowide decline in home values, as REO homes typically sell at a 20% discount. Reomac just held its 2009 conference at Palm Desert. The extravagance and the excess at the conference is amazing considering that the whole country is facing this crisis and California is one of the hardest hit states. From the way people are trying to get these properties one could not imagine that the rest of the country is going through a crisis, and millions in developing countries might at this very moment be plunged below the poverty line!...

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The alliance between the PRD on the left and the PAN party on the right in Mexico on an anti-corruption platform creates a third option in Mexico after the PRI under president Nieto, and the party of Lopez Obrador. Obrador and the candidate of the PAN/PRD Ricardo Anaya, 38 years, now are level in polls with 32 percent support and the PRI candidate Antonio Meade at 25%. The Nieto administration is tainted with several corruption scandals and about 75% of Mexicans want a change in government, in a Reforma poll. Obrador contested for the PRD in 2006 in a close election, and in 2012 formed his own party. If successful this would be the first time three parties form together to form a coalition government in Mexico, with the Citizens Party joining the PRD/PAN coalition. This is similar to the way in which the left and the right are getting together to topple the old politicians with new younger faces in other countries- including in France, and in Italy in upcoming elections with the left and the right represented in the En Marche movement in France, and in the Five Star Movement in Italy. In Germany a left -right coalition is being put together with the CDU and the Social Democrats coming together on social issues. After state elections in 2016 the opposition winning 3 governorships from ruling PRI, and the election in the state of Mexico where a divided field made it possible for the ruling PRI to hold onto power even after losing 1 million votes, both the PRD and the PAN parties realized the need to come together on an anti-corruption platform. Corruption and rejection of the old politicians bringing in a younger generation into politics is a major issue in many countries. ...

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The personality based governance under Carlos Ghosn is seen as a problem now that Mr. Ghosn is in a jail cell in Tokyo and under investigation by Japanese prosecutors. Mr. Ghosn faces charges that he under reported his deferred pay over a five year period to 2011.  The Economist magazine points out the other problems that might have led to to the authorites being informed about the failure of Nissan to make the internal audits. This relates to the activities  of Mr. Ghosn to arrange a possible takeover by Renault through a merger. Nissan owns only 15% non voting stake in Renault, and Renault by comparison owns a 43.4% ownership in Nissan. The French government has a 15% stake in Renault and efforts were made by Mr. Macron, as Economy minister, to secure double voting rights for long term shareholders such as the French government. This leaves the Japanese government and Nissan reluctant to see the move to Renault's takeover. The French government left with suspicions on the reasons for Mr. Ghosn's removal now less likely to cede control over the joint venture. The jet setting high flying ways of executives such as Mr. Ghosn with the company's identity being defined by their activities are also coming under much criticism. The CEO of Chrysler Mr. Marchionne was gravely ill at 66 following a decade of deal making, with chain smoking, leading to a severe illness. Renault under Ghosn rescued Nissan in 1999, Fiat under Marchionne rescued Chrysler in 2009 with U.S. government help. The Economist magazine points out the Nissan alliance with Renault is now tarnished by another high flying executive.   ...

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Bernie Sanders presents the case for Medicare for All, healthcare for all legislation in the U.S. Congress introduced in September 2017. It has the support of 15 Senators. He says the current system is costly, wasteful and bureaucratic. It is time says Sanders for the U.S. to join the rest of the industrialized world, join Britain, France, Germany and other countries of Europe, Japan and Australia, Canada, with healthcare for all Americans. After all he says only 50 miles north of his electoral district in the Burlington, Vermont area is Canada, where the system of healthcare for all works better than in the U.S.  And the Canadians, Germans, French, and British do this spending less than half the U.S. does. In 2015 the U.S. spent $10,000 per person for healthcare, this means that it cost less than $5000 per person in these advanced countries and the way they do it can be studied and its best aspects adopted by the U.S.  He says this is because the U.S. healthcare system is designed to maintain profits for the medical-industrial complex. A major problem is the manner in which the issue is distorted by different sides on the issue of health care in the U.S., without a consensus being developed on what the common interest is in a civilized society. Mostly because the U.S. unlike other societies is still grappling with the issue of what values it embraces on healthcare being made available to all. Under this legislation the transition to healthcare for all would take place over 4 years. In the first year eligibility for Medicare would start at age 55 years, and children under 18 would be covered. In the second year the eligibility starts at 45 years, in the third year at 35 years, in the fourth all are covered.  ...

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Though tens of thousands of workers in the French rail network are protesting in the streets about changes in the labor laws, the atmosphere in the National Assembly where president Macron has an absolute majority is different. In the National Assembly most of the legislators are young, inexperienced and there for the first time after the recent elections. Most owe allegiance to president Macron and his party En Marche. The labor code changes were passed without much discussion and on a thumbs up or down vote.  Legislators from Mr. Macron's party are seen by older surviving legislators from an earlier period in French politics as arrogant and do not consult with older legislators. The entire sociology of the National Assembly is overturned and presents a complete culture shock, says a leader of Macron's party who selected members for seats in parliament. Three fourths of members are here for the first time, 60% in Macron's party En Marche. About one third never held public office before. These members spend a whole week in parliament instead of the few days during the earlier Assembly. Yet for all the work and enthusiasm these members act as more of a rubber stamp for Macron's policies instead of offering healthy discussion so that policies can be modified where needed to better accomplish the goal of changing the French system where it can be improved. The result is a form of government that critics increasingly see as autocratic. For Macron this means the lack of a process of consultation that could improve legislation and increase consensus, creating larger support for the changes to the labor laws and the pension system. ...

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Full time workers in Sweden have the right to take leave for 6 months to do something they want to do, including starting a new business. This includes taking care of a relative or study leave. Workers can come back after 6 months to resume their old job. Employers cannot say no except for special reasons.  This leave has the support of employers, unions and the government. In Sweden's unique culture which emphasizes work-life balance workers taking 6 month leave of absence can get back to their old jobs smoothly.  In Sweden it is very hard to fire an employee who is permanent. So that once an employee has permanent status there is very little incentive to leave to do something else. The 6 month leave option lets workers try out something different or start a business without incurring career risk in addition to financial risk. Workers are more comfortable venturing out when they know they can come back to their old job and are not risking their careers. This BBC report shows profiles several new business owners who took 6 month leave to start a new venture they were passionate about. The way this happens is that an employee first tries out an idea in his spare time while he works full time. When he is comfortable making the move he can take the 6 month leave to devote time to it full time. Experts say Sweden is the only country in the world to give this right to leave to start a new business. In 2017 175,000 people took this leave compared to 163,000 in 2007, according to Statistics Sweden. During this period registration of new companies shot up from 27,000 to 48,000. ...

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This report in DW.com looks at the problems behind the suspension of all operations at India's Jet Airways.  Jet Airways faced little competition in its early years in the early 1990's and was a success as a full service airline competing with state controlled Air India and Indian Airlines. By 2005 the emergence of low cost carriers operating on thin margins and using a cost efficient model of operation hit Jet Airways hard. It still operated as a full service airline failing to change its model to tackle a cost conscious growing Indian market. The $500 million used to acquire a weak budget airline Air Sahara was a costly move leading to a writeoff of the entire investment and a lost opportunity to adapt Jet Airways to the new cost efficient models roiling the airline industry in Asia.  It is difficult to operate in a environment where a depreciating rupee could add an additional burden from volatile oil prices for cost of fuel to operate. Airlines that operated on razor thin margins such as Indigo and SpiceJet used cost and efficiency parameters as key to flying passengers. Jet Airways failed to make this the priority, continuing to operate as a full service airline. The favorable oil price environment for a brief period in 2015 was not used by the airline to streamline costs.  Add to this the effect of Goods and Services Tax which increased costs by 18%, the effects of demonetisation in reducing passenger ability to buy with cash, and the 5% tax on jet fuel in 2018, creating a financial crisis at Jet Airways.  In the end banks decided not to extend further financing for the airline to operate and looked for a large buyer. ...

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In an interview with Rolling Stone magazine, the commander in Afghanistan, General McChrystal, responds to a question about Vice President Biden, and says, "who is that?" An aide jumps in saying, is that "Bite Me?" These and other words of disdain for the Vice President and other policy advisors, are seen as the kind of frustration facing commanders from the slow progress in the enlarged effort in Afghanistan. It also brings to the fore the serious questions that have always remained, some raised by Biden, Reidel and others, of how any kind of success could be achieved without a reliable partner in the Afghan government, with the complicated situation in Pakistan where the Intelligence Services pursued a different agenda from that of the government, and with little interest from the people in the rural areas in a vast rural mountainous country, Kabul a little urban dot in a huge landscape of deserts and mountains. See the groups and links for Afghanistan and Pakistan for background.

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Pearlstein argues that the US and the Obama administration achieved most of its goals, even though the Europeans took the credit. On regulatory reform, Geithner's regulatory reform proposal he says, could well have been written at the French Finance Ministry, as at the US Treasury. And it gives Obama ammunition to prepare, as private equity, hedge funds, and banks try to water down his proposals for regulatory reform. By having member countries commit to adding $850 billion to the resources at the IMF, and regional development banks to provide help to countries in serious difficulties- and giving instructions that the money can be used not only for debt rollover, bank recapitalization and balance of payments support, but also for stimulus spending, infrastructure investment, trade finance and social support- the Obama adminstration has accomplished a great deal. It has succeeded in putting in place the necessary financial resources to support not only the financial systems of countries in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America that need help, but put emphasis on the need for resources to go for helping reduce job losses, create jobs, and provide some forms of income or support to people in these countries. This is a major step as it means the countries of Eastern Europe and other developing countries can deal with their crises in confidence. Mexico is taking loans from the IMF. Dominique Strauss Kahn had begun the policy of shifting IMF's focus to these social goals as significant parts of the recovery process in countries, but he faced the old mindset among the IMF staff, as when its reported staff wanted to increase interest rates in Pakistan by 10% instead of the 3% that was finally agreed to. That would have caused serious difficulty to the people of Pakistan, created chaotic situation and disturbed the social fabric of that country. See the link to this for S. Korea and for Pakistan. And as Gordon Brown put it the old conditionality that lay behind the IMF loans, is phased out. This makes it the new policy at the IMF backed by the G20 mandate. The Washington consensus which prescribed open borders, floating exchange rates and fiscal prudence is now ended. And to support this change the developing countries will have a bigger say in IMF policy and decisions. ...

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Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...