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A fact check on Alice Weidel Musk interview on X. The current polls show the leading candidate for chancellor is Habeck of the Greens at 28%. Habeck is known for the work he did to get Germany through a difficult period of cutoff of energy supplies from Russia. He was Deputy Chancellor and Economy Minister in the Scholz government. Scholz is at 20% so is Weidel of AfD. Others are Merz of the Christian Democrats at 25%. Sarah Wagenknecht leads a Socialist party BSW that opposes migrants given asylum similar to the Socialist party in Denmark under PM Mette Frederiksen with 21%. The AfD has 20% support, Christian Democrats have 30%. Social Democrats 20% and Greens about 20%. 7 million immigrants entered Germany since the Merkel years in 2015. The situation in 2015 when Merkel allowed migrants to enter Germany from Austria and Hungary is remembered as a controversial decision. Merkel reversed this decision during the last years of her government. Of the 7 million only 3 million are asylum seekers applications of which some were rejected. The rest were legally allowed into the country. This included Ukrainian refugees from the war with Russia.   ...

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Over half of the companies in the US plan to hire in 2025. Considerable uncertainty prevailed in 2024 about hiring, this is clearing up in 2025 with a new administration keen on boosting growth.

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Fund manager BlackRock withdraws from Net Zero Initiative and its other commitments for ESG, Environment, Sustainability and Governance.

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Pew Research looks at Inequality as an issue. It also looks at whether people see that their children will be better off financially when they grow up. The Better off Financially is not the same as the inequality issue, on inequality issue progress can be inadequate but perceived differently among different income groups in industrialized nations to be inconclusive as in this recent Pew Research in 2024.  On whether children will be Better off financially there is a decisive result in Pew Research in 2024. With France and Canada at the top 81% and 78%,  Italy and UK at 79%, the US at 74%, Japan 77%, Australia 79%, Spain 75%. Almost across all the European Union countries and the US this is decisive, a clear unequivocal result. Both the Trump first term and the Biden first term felt effects of Covid pandemic.  Reviving Manufacturing in the US and  Europe is the only way, and with it infrastructure investment, to bring back a sense of optimism to the US and Europe. For this levelling the playing field and tariffs that do that selectively are the plan in the second term, getting industry to take up the challenge is the second goal in this decade to 2030.    ...

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At the core 66% of people in the US, UK and in Germany, 77% in France, Italy and Spain  in Pew Research in 2024 see the need for big economic changes. Inequality increase are often automatically seen as correlated with deterioration in standard of living. However in practice cost of living concerns and opportunity to do something about it can move in the opposite direction to inequality increases. Cost of living can improve based on gas and electricity prices and access to housing with lower interest rates independent of whether government is or is not intervening in the economy. Some interventions may not work as in the supply side shocks in prices from Covid lockdowns or simply exhaust people's patience without sufficient timely correction. A disquiet index can also move in a different direction from inequality increases when cost of living raises disquiet levels for people, and cultural issues such as transgender in schools create  additional disquiet. Failure to get bipartisanship may leave inequality issues unresolved as happens with one group student loan borrowers stuck in repayment.  In this sense inequality is only one goal and can be elusive if the overall goal of reducing disquiet index are left unresolved. A better quality of life can be achieved in other ways- as with the effort for "a rising tide lifts all boats." This can include the ripple effect of international politics where issues spill over into the US creating cultural disquiet on campuses as happened in 2024 with Israel Gaza conflict. The interplay of local and international starts adding complexity that adds to disquiet index for people in all levels of society.   ...

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Moderna plans to build a factory in China and expand its business in China in 2025. Senator Rubio and others are concerned that this could lead to the loss of mRNA technology to China. The US government financed Moderna during Covid for development of the mRNA vaccine.

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GM, VW and Toyota are shrinking in China's rapidly expanding EV and hybrids market. Local China brands expanded by 9% to 61% of the market. 23 smaller Chinese brands were merged into larger China brands or exited the market. China's car market expanded by 5.5% to 22.9 million vehicles.  Production capacity is about twice that with 112 brands in the market. US is at about 16 million vehicles.

Production of EV's or plug in hybrids has hit 10 million in China in 2024, so that about half of all vehicles made in 2024 are EV's or hybrids.

Tesla China sales at 662,000,, up 8%, with Model Y selling at $33,000 and 5 year car loans at no interest from Tesla. China's leader BYD sells 4 million cars in 2024. GM's 6 plants in China suffered- GM lost 50% of it's sales in 2024 and took a $5 billion charge.

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Jimmy Carter rejected an ostentatious presidency and DJT is a beneficiary says the Editorial Board of the Washington Post. It was Jimmy not James. Beige wool cardigan sweater was OK for prime time address. No chaueffeurs or limousines for staffers. Thermostats were turned down to 65 degrees during the day. Daughter Amy was enrolled in a D.C. public school. He had his cousin Hugh Carter Jr pinch pennies by cutting out unnecessary costs in the West Wing. House Speaker Mike Johnson reminded the public of these virtues of simplicity and thrift. Jimmy Carter carried his own luggage into Air Force One. "Hail to the Chief" was not performed when he entered the room. The Nation appreciated this as is so evident in the final tribute and the heart felt gratitude of the people of America. One sees little division in the Nation when it comes to goodwill for Jimmy from Thune and Johnson in the US Congress whose tributes speak louder than the politics. Senator Thune should know, he grew up in a two room home in South Dakota and understands simplicity. What difference does it make if he is  a Republican or Carter a Southern Democrat. ...

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When it comes to the wars in the Middle East Biden showed courage in "doing the right thing," even if it would cost him. Biden pulled America from wars in the Middle East that DJT had laid the ground work for by setting up that goal and taking action. Obama by contrast lacked the courage, and would not take any risks to his reelection effort. Biden in one term proved to be a transformative president in ways that Obama never even comes close, by building on the wave of support for rebuilding infrastructure that DJT had created in his first term. In ways that were unpredictable but real it could be said that DJT anticipated Biden and Biden anticipated DJT's efforts to get America out of wars that were never really in America's interest and started under the Reagan and Bush administrations continued through the Obama years. In the same way DJT anticipated Biden on rebuilding infrastructure and Biden anticipated DJT in action on the US Border and shutting down fentanyl flows from Mexico and China by getting Republican Senator Lankford to write up the legislation on the Border. This is also why president Biden can welcome DJT at the White House on the day of the Inauguration Jan 20 knowing both worked for the best interests of the Nation, and in the end listened to each other. ...

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Britain offers 90 million pounds a year for 99 years for the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. This in intended to help Mauritius with its budget deficit. Under colonial administrators the Chagos Islands were placed under Mauritius administration. It is also the place for the US base at Diego Garcia, an important naval base in the Indian Ocean. 

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The causes of La wildfires are dry conditions, little rainfall in the Santa Monica Mountains, and winds gusting with record speeds. Loss estimated at $57 billion for Southern California, and the trauma of seeing wildfires spread at unheard of speeds. It is also attributed to climate change that has caused such fires all over North America, different in scale and speed from the past.

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President Biden tells USA Today in an interview that "based on polling" he could have won when running for president, yet cannot say about being president at 85 years or 86 years, saying "who the hell knows."

"When Trump was running again for re-election, I really thought I had the best chance of beating him. But I also wasn't looking to be president when I was 85 years old, 86 years old," Biden said. "But I don't know. Who the hell knows?"

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Financial markets are pricing in 2 quarter point percentage interest rate cuts from Bank of England. But the weaker economic outlook could lead to 4 such cuts creating more room for Labour's Budget as it struggles to fight austerity spending, meet aspirations for better public services and infrastructure and still be seen as responsible in spending goals.  In September 2023 analysts referred to the mini-Truss British budget and the speed with which borrowing costs increased for England as the "moron premium." As debt servicing costs increase in 2025 and less optimism about growth, there is concern that the 9.9 billion reserve that Rachel Reeves had planned after balancing day to day spending with tax receipts to 2029-30 would disappear. The Labour Budget had planned on about 105 billion pounds as debt servicing cost for 2.6 trillion pounds in UK debt as indicated by Office of Budget Responsibility. The 30 year yield is up to 5.3% in Jan 2025 and this could erase the 9.9 billion reserve with higher interest costs. The situation is different from Truss but will need to be watched carefully. ...

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BBC News shows wildfires blazing in the Los Angeles area 15,000 acres in densely populated areas on the coastline.

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Deep in the jungles of Indonesian Borneo one finds Bayan Resources coal complex. In 2025 Indonesia is the world's largest coal producer. Bayan Resources was founded by Low Tuck Kwong a Indonesian businessman who started out with his father's construction business in Singapore and switched to start his own business in mining in Indonesia in 1972. Bayan is now one of the largest coal producers in Indonesia and ships the coal to India, Vietnam and Philippines which depend on coal for electricity and modernization.  Coal demand will actually increase instead of decrease from 8 billion metric tons in 2013 to 9 billion metric tons in 2027. India and Vietnam are taking on the role of manufacturing that once belonged to China in the supply chain. The combined population of India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines is about 2 billion people with a huge need for 100% electrification of rail and transport, and for homes and industry. India is accelerating it's renewable energy production, yet coal will be needed in the interim transition to renewable energy. Coal production is about 1 billion metric tons in 2024. About 20% of coal is imported from Indonesia and Australia. India depends on coal for 75% of electricity needs says Anil Kumar Jha former head of Coal India Limited. He predicts coal to increase to 1.3 million metric tons produced in India by 2031.   ...