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This report in the WSJ says Reince Preibus, Republican National Committee chairman, has told party officials on Oct. 8, 2016, to redirect party funds away from nominee Trump to down-ballot candidates. This means the Republican party will try to get Clinton supporters to vote who are likely to vote for candidates like Rubio in Florida and Portman in Ohio. Republican Portman has joined Senator McCain in withdrawing support for Trump. This is the result of a video showing Trump making lewd comments about women in a conversation with Billy Bush of NBC. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Paul Ryan, immediately disinvited Trump from a rally in Wisconsin and withdrew his support leading to a big outflow of support from Congressman and Republican leaders. A former chairman of the Republican party in California describes this as the biggest crisis for Republicans since Watergate. The Republican party now stops its mail program to voters that supported Trump and redirects it to down-ballot candidates. It also comes as the Republican party funds and party infrastructure are a necessary and vital  part of any Republican nominee's effort to get elected. The Republican strategy may now be to try and preserve its control of Congress, as a loss in Wisconsin, Illinois or Missouri, could give the Democrats control of the Senate and other losses reduce its House majority. This appears to be the backup strategy of Paul Ryan as Speaker, and the leading Republican after his overwhelming win in his Senate seat against a Trump supported candidate. ...

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Republican candidate Trump wins 51% of the vote in Iowa to De Santis 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Trump won among evangelical voters with 58% support. In cities his vote declined. In Story County home to Iowa State University in Ames, it was 34%, and in Johnson County where University of Iowa is located 36% supported Trump. In 2024 18percentage points separate Mr. Trump's support in low levels of college or post secondary education to higher levels of college or post secondary education. In 2016 Mr. Trump received 29% of the vote in low college education areas to 22% of the vote in high college education areas- a spread of 7 percentage points. Iowa is a state with a large farm and agriculture sector. Other states with manufacturing in the midwest tended to move away from Democrats in 2016. Some of this momentum has reversed with union support for Mr. Biden who has taken a pro-union stance in a way that is not matched by any Democrat since FDR and Harry Truman in the 1930's to 1950's. The shift of Clinton to globalism and Obama to tech companies cost Democrats heavily in 2016 with workers in manufacturing- something that is reversed in drastic ways since 2020 with Mr. Biden on the picket line at UAW union auto strikes in Michigan. ...

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Mr. Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US at Columbia, South Carolina, says this report in WSJ. A universal tariff of this type is similar to Herbert Hoover's Smoot Hawley that brought on the Great Depression in the 1930's in outright beggar thy neighbor policies which don't work, says WSJ. This opinion describes the impact of such a tariff in failing to reverse the trade deficit which is $951 billion in 2022, but fails to point to the lack of effectiveness of tariffs alone in bringing back American manufacturing jobs. As president Biden has pointed out the Trump administration made much talk about returning American jobs but did not accomplish much for American manufacturing to lead the world in the way the Biden administration has done. To do this the Biden administration passed laws to fund a entire new electric car industry, renewable energy industry, and promoting other industries in advanced technologies, including aerospace, to bring back America's leadership in manufacturing of most of the twentieth century with a bold vision for the future. Mr. Trump lacks the experience on this issue and is simply playing the rhetoric to his base without any plan to deliver the goods to sections of the American public that have already suffered the most from decades of neglect of manufacturing by Republicans going back to Reagan and Bush, Democrats Clinton and Obama. ...

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This article in the Los Angeles Times "Shifting tides for Obama in 2012" puts things in perspective for the situation Biden faces in the 2024 campaign.  The LA Times points out in its report by David Lauter October 30, 2011, that among white working class voters the defeat Obama experienced in 2008 will turn into a rout in 2012. It says the rising racial diversity and increase in college graduates were only two factors helping Obama and this also was in doubt in 2012. The 2009 financial crisis had led to high unemployment and poverty among Hispanic households and also affected black people. The soured economy put Obama at risk in 2012. The rout among white working class voters for Obama in 2012 turned into a complete rout for Clinton in 2016. The Obama coalition looks like a one time affair and an aberration in America where white non college graduates almost all vote Republican. By putting white working class and factory voters firmly in the Democrats camp as they were for the last century and building a strong economy and manufacturing Biden now brings back the America of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman and Eisenhower. By putting the struggle to improve the lives of working people at the heart of the democratic process Biden is rebuilding the America that transformed a less developed agricultural nation into a modern industrial economy. ...

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Laurent Berger is the likely candidate for bringing together all social democratic and socialist parties in France.  French Socialist parties and leaders Melenchon, Glucksmann, and others in Greens party join together to contest the Assembly elections June 30, July 7. This means the socialist parties have finally made the decision to come up with ways to tackle the cost of living crisis, loss of manufacturing, lack of investment in infrastructure that can make a difference in the daily lives of working people. This was missing in Macron's plan as En Marche was built by Macron based on his detecting an opportunity during the last year of Socialist Hollande's term in 2017, not with a well thought out plan for renewal in France. The years of the presidential first and second terms did not work from a plan to tackle the issues facing working class families and benefitted as much from the alienation that had driven working class votes in different directions from the failures of Socialist or Social Democratic leaders. This happened in Germany with Scroeder, in Britain with Gordon Brown, and in France with Hollande, in the US with Clinton and Obama. The path that president Biden has taken to invest in infrastructure with bipartisan support, to invest in manufacturing with bipartisan support is what the Social Democratic and Socialist parties in France with bipartisan help now need to take up. ...

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Biden's last 100 days in office. His effort to make things better, a conviction that he would have won enough white working class voters to win the election. Turnout was way way higher when Biden ran in 2020. It dropped by about 10 million voters in 2024 compared to 2020. Many white working class voters of the 82 million who voted for Biden in 2020 simply simply did not turn up to vote while DJT clung on to the 75 million votes he had in 2016. Transgender, a sense that everything was changing too quickly culturally, the fentanyl crisis adding to migrant surge creating a backlash for Harris. Biden makes an effort to lock in the gains made in the last 4 years in a number of areas. A remarkable life and one that brings back the Democrats closer to their roots under FDR in 1932 and his uncle Teddy Roosevelt a Republican fighting for the working class since 1902, that FDR inherited. The nation under DJT simply inherits the role played by TR as Republican in 1902 fighting for the working class after two southerners Carter and Clinton let Democrat ties to working class wither and support for China entering WTO and taking over manufacturing leadership. Obama letting Silicon Valley distance Democrats from workers even further and dragging on wars that served no purpose for America. ...

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Stephen Bosworth was appointed by Hillary Clinton as U.S. Representative for North Korea Policy. He is one of America's best diplomats who served in several postings overseas before becoming Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. Prof. Drezner points to the work done by Bosworth in keeping dialogue with North Korea alive, till a solution can be found. He also cites Chinese analysts who say pressuring China comes from a worn playbook, that China would not agree to reunification on the Korean peninsula, to bring U.S. influence right up to its borders. South Koreans have been wary of reunification because of the decade long experience of integrating East Germany. As a result new solutions need to be found and the valuable work of diplomats like Bosworth is badly needed to keep dialogue alive for a solution to be found.

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Daily Show host, Jon Stewart, interviews US President Obama. Obama told Stewart that "it was fair" to say that Obama had done his work, in Stewart's words, in "a political manner that has papered over a foundation that is corrupt." Obama says "we got 90% of what we wanted," which reflects a huge gap between how he is seen by people in the U.S., and how he sees his first 2 years in office. Obama's defensive responses, and no efforts to connect with the youthful audience on the Daily Show. Stewart points to the gap between the "audacity" in the rhetoric of Obama, and the "timid" nature of his administration. Stewart made particular reference to the hiring of Larry Summers, a former Clinton administration official, to guide the President on economic policy and the dealings with the banks.

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U.S. Secretary of State Clinton and Turkey's foreign minister Davutoglu met in early August 2012 and agreed to set up intensive operational planning and coordination of the two countries efforts on Syria to end the Assad regime. The two foreign ministers said a unified task force with intelligence, military and political leaders would be set up immediately and will look at all options including direct assistance to the democracy movement and forces fighting the Assad regime.

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In an overwhelming victory in Burma's 2015 general election Aung San Suu Kyi's party wins 80% of the vote, with the military backed party winning only 41 seats of 491 seats in parliament. The National League for Democracy wins 397 seats. Both sides underestimated their strength. Suu Kyi supporters estimated they would get 60% of the vote, and the military expected to win about 130 seats. The 1990 elections and Suu Kyi's victory were annulled by the military. This time Suu Kyi will appoint the president, as she is banned from taking office under the military drafted constitution. It has taken 25 years for the change in Burma. China and India supported the military rulers in Burma, while the U.S. and UK consistently opposed the military. India a regional democracy put regional considerations ahead of democratic process, showing how even democratic governments failed to respond, especially when the military cracked down on Buddhist temples in 2007. Mrs Bush, Hillary Clinton, and other Americans showed strong support for Suu Kyi throughout her house arrest following the 1990 election. Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar as U.S. Secretary of State in 2011 to show her support for Suu Kyi, which may have set the process in motion for the 2015 free election in Burma. ...

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The Dutch model for counterinsurgency which intertwines the civilian efforts with aid workers working inside the military, and military work focussing on security for the people so that economic development projects can go on, is an inspiration for the US effort. It has also reduced casualties for the Dutch. Only 19 deaths have occurred for the Dutch for 2000 personnel employed since they deployed in Uruzgan province in March 2006, where 350,000 Afghans live, according to icasualties.org. Sec of state Hillary Clinton describes this 3 D effort of defense, diplomacy, and development, as the model for her own efforts and that of the Obama administration. Dutch soldiers are ingrained in their training for this mission that their main work in Afghainstan will be economic development. The aid workers work closely with the soldiers and the commander Col. Gert-Jan Koolj says over time the focus has been on pure development. In fact diplomats from the Dutch foreigh ministry help to command the Dutch team in Uruzgan. One problem Clinton is facing is the shortage of civilian personnel to work in provincial reconstruction teams. About 500-600 more civilians are needed to complement the additional 21,000 troops that are to be added in 2009. ...

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After a period when Democrats let the narrative be shaped by "the entitlements crisis" and questioning the legacy of president Roosevelt- who many including Mr. Trump believe setup the groundwork for the prosperity of the early postwar years in America- the vision of the New Deal and FDR is back, says Glickman in the Washington Post. He says the New Deal order lasted from 1932 to 1980 when president Reagan was elected. Conservatives were skeptical about the New Deal, and Democrats such as Al Gore joined the Conservatives with their faith in limited government and unregulated or less regulated markets. To this was added the faith Democrats such as Mr. Clinton put in a new policy of openness in trade with China that ultimately led to todays $ 1 billion a day deficit with China. There is a new sense says Glickman that the tide is reversing and that FDR is now seen as the new ideal for a fairer and better America, and better investment in the people of America. ...

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Climate policy changes lead to $1.3 trillion savings according to analysis from DJT administration and EPA's Zeldin, with $1.1 trillion in savings from lower vehicle prices which addresses unaffordability of cars. Using the average price of a new basic Toyota Corolla the price in 2020 was $19,000 which has gone up to $23,000 a price increase of 21% by 2025 over a 5 year period. The cost in 2026 of operating a Gas powered vehicle is on average about $2500, for EV car about $1000 with $1500 in savings per year for EV's that need to be figured into the equation at gas prices that prevailed in 2024 of $4-$5 per gallon . At prices of $3 per gallon the gas costs come down to $1200 when driven 12,000 miles at 30 mpg for 400 gallons of gasoline consumed. This makes the difference between gas and EV yearly savings on gasoline costs down to about $200 from $1500. This makes gasoline powered cars attractive as car companies can reduce EV investments and pass on some of these savings in lower car prices in 2027 in exchange for favorable rules on emissions and EV transition dates.  Are there losses through the emissions and climate change? The DJT/Zeldin EPA analysis points to global climate emissions from China and India (the coal powered plants) continuing at a pace that would determine the overall change in climate for 2026-2027. In this kind of approach the goal is to make cars affordable over a 2-3 year period for US and European carmakers who would be expected to cut prices. It is about flexibility in fighting the Cost of Cars a big component in the Cost of living with housing as the next large component. It is not a long term strategy, simply one that offers a flexible approach. Will the US, Europe and Japan fall behind in EV's technology? Hybrids a focus of Japanese cars will continue to advance that technology which is becoming a preference where it is affordable for customers. Toyota for instance will have a wide lead in hybrids technology by 2030. Much of the Chinese market will have EV's and the EV's technology will advance in China in 2026-2027, and tariffs will be needed to protect European and American carmakers for 2026-2028. It is a strategy tradeoff to deal with the cost of living crisis in US, Europe and Japan answering call for a flexible approach that was also heeded by the Biden administration in relaxing carbon emissions rule changes. It will require automakers to step up and cut prices for gasoline models for buyers at the entry and lower range for affordability by 2026-2027. What about climate action? The strategy is based on the idea that climate action requires India and China (coal powered plants) on board to make a real difference so that over 2-3 years to 2027 the US, Europe and Japan need to address affordability for the lower end entry cars. There is an element of denial of climate change in parts of the DJT administration in the US but not in Europe and Japan. It is also true that leading DJT administration officials Secretary Bessent see the problem of climate as real and one that needs to be addressed yet leaving room for flexibility to tackle affordability crisis for ordinary workers with low incomes struggling to make a living. Bessent and others in the DJT administration are calling for using all of the resources to address needs of people struggling to make a living, and for a strategy for the US to get back its manufacturing capacity from China and for rebuilding the US economy after deindustrialization (caused by Clinton's huge US economy shattering failure to provide safeguards for abuse of the trading system by China in signing a poorly drafted agreement for China's entry into WTO at the end of his term in 1999-2000 just when he had fought impeachment.  ...

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The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...

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This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

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DW.com sees "back paddling" in Trump's latest foreign policy speech, replacing bigotry against immigrants with the idea of a ban on Muslims entering the U.S. with "extreme vetting" of new immigrants, including an ideological screening test. Trump it says repeated his claim that he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, which it says is false. Trump's statement that he would reduce the current nation building strategy pursued under president Bush, it says doesn't make sense because the current situation in the Middle East ( rise of ISIS and chaos in Syria) arises from American retrenchment reversing in the opposite direction the policies of president George W. Bush. It is also true that Bush started his presidency with no intention of nation building, it was only after 9/11 that he adopted this policy. The elder Bush, George W. Bush's father, is reported to have said that his son as president was ill served by bad advisors in the invasion of Iraq over weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Obama's retrenchment has also led to differences in policy, with Leon Panetta and Hillary Clinton believing the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction, as shown in LyrArc's coverage. The speech was read using a teleprompter to avoid the frequent gaffes in previous speeches. Clearly an effort to make immigration and terrorism issues to win voter support, after previous efforts resembling bigotry and intolerance. ...

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Overall America's Infrastructure gets only a C grade- but that is the best grade since 1998 so badly has the Nation's infrastructure been neglected under Clinton-Bush-Obama.  Bridges, broadband, drinking water systems, hazardous waste treatment, inland waterways, public parks and solid waste received grades of C+, C or C–, mediocre condition needs attention. Dams, levees, roads, schools and infrastructure for aviation, energy, storm water, transit and wastewater get grades of D+ or D, poor condition. Ports get a B, Rail gets a B- dropping a notch, and Energy get a D grade in this report on US infrastructure by the US Society of Civil Engineers. It comes out every four years. The shortfall in infrastructure spending- $3.7 trillion. This after the $1.2 trillion Biden Infrastructure bill made a real difference since 2021. Grades have improved on half of the 18 categories this report tracks. “Better infrastructure is an efficient investment of taxpayer dollars that results in a stronger economy and prioritizes American jobs.” Darren Olson, chair of the committee on infrastructure of the Society of Civil Engineers. "The investment levels that we saw under the last administration have really started to move the needle, and we’re looking forward to advancing that conversation as we move into this administration.”- Kristina Swallow, president of the Society of Civil Engineers ...

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The Trump administration's early proposal for NAFTA moves away from campaign pledges to completely renegotiate the treaty, instead taking the approach of working to improve the U.S. trade position in relation to Mexico and Canada. It includes seven objectives for tougher rules for labor and the environment favored by Democrats in Congress, and it also has support from Republicans with its effort to update NAFTA for changes in technology and in other areas since the accord was signed during the Clinton administration. The area in which U.S. and Mexican business are wary is one in which the Trump administration still seeks to keep the option of imposing protective tariffs, and a border-adjusted tax to level playing field for differences in taxes, as well as other measures to protect American jobs and interests. Because any renegotiated NAFTA also has to pass both houses of Congress this proposal took into account the different constituencies and interests for this issue. Robert Lighthizer, trade representative under president Reagan is likely to become the next U.S. Trade Representative and lead negotiator. We first profiled Lighthizer in a group in Lyrarc for pointing to the need for a level playing field in trade. As early as 2010 Lighthizer argued in op-ed articles that globalization and trade practices should ensure a level playing field for the U.S., and was covered in Lyrarc. ...

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Bob Herbert's column in the New York Times about Hillary Clinton's comment to USA Today that she was favored by white working class Americans followed by the remark "There's a pattern emerging here." The reaction of black people in the USA to the division being sown by Mrs Clinton.

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A Republican says the party's failures to come up with alternative policies instead of simply opposing president Obama, has led to the atmosphere of negativism and anti-immigrant rhetoric that increases support for Trump in the party base. He cites as an example 2012 Republican presidential nominee Romney and his comments about "self-deportation." Other examples cited include pushing Rubio to where he repudiated his own immigration legislation just to maintain support in the party. He says this leaves him little option but to vote for Hillary Clinton.

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U.S. president Obama offers his own assessment of the divisive rhetoric of Trump and its origins in the way the Republican Party has opposed him throughout his two terms, including opposition to Obamacare, and ways to tackle poverty, joblessness, without offering alternatives. He says conservative news outlets encouraged this trend till Mr. Trump said he could do this better by raising the level of rhetoric. Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and voices in the Republican Party are critical of the way Trump conducts his rallies, and the abusive rhetoric for Latinos, Muslims and minorities.

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Ted Cruz wins the Wisconsin Republican primary election with 48% to Trump's 34%, with only 29% of voters who made up their mind late going to Trump compared to 46% for Cruz. About 37% of the voters in the Wisconsin primary said they would not vote at all or vote for Hillary Clinton if Trump was nominated. Showing deep discomfort with Trump exit polls showed 58% saying they were "concerned" or "scared" if Trump was elected. Cruz quoted John Kennedy and Winston Churchill, describing it as the turning point in the primaries.

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Henninger points out what he sees as the problem Democrats in the White House have faced since the days of Lyndon Johnson and Vietnam in this WSJ editorial commentary. Under Warren, O'Malley, Clinton or Obama, he sees the response being the same- of lettting a crisis develop to the point where America faces the use of overwhelming power to not acting at all, with no action in between. More likely that the U.S. would find itself on the east side of New York at the UN if that were to happen, says Henninger.