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A copy of the letter Mr. Trump sent to Mr. Erdogan of Turkey telling him " don't be a tough guy... don't be a fool," to invade the Kurdish zone in Syria. He says history will judge him, that he should "not let the world down." 

Turkey sent forces into the Kurdish zone even after the letter from Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump said that it was a bad idea getting involved in the Middle East that trillions of dollars had been wasted. He made exceptions for keeping the Straits of Hormuz open and flow of oil from a commercial standpoint in providing assistance to Saudi Arabia and Aramco, something the U.S. has done since FDR administration.

It also says Mr. Trump has worked hard to help Turkey. And admonishes Erdogan saying "I don't want to be responsible for destroying the Turkish economy- and I will."

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After all the talk about spending Saudis fall to sixth place in soccer league spending as oil prices decline and there is just not enough for all the mega projects.

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Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi says it is logical because of the situation in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria, for consuming countries to build up stocks. This will not have a depressing effect on oil prices, and it will help keep prices stable. Economic growth is not affected by $60 a barrel oil as long as it does not go higher, says Naimi.

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Helene Cooper and Worth point to the vacillating response to the Arab Spring and movement for democracy and freedom in the Middle East of the Obama administration and President Obama. The dangerous overtones of this lack of U.S. leadership in the region as the U.S. completes a withdrawal from Iraq without an agreement for a residual presence, sees diplomacy reaching an impasse with Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and the Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey with its long border with Syria, and drawing in Saudi Arabia as a defendor of Sunnis in Syria. The stakes for Russia in Syria were minimal compared to that of people in the Middle East and the U.S., yet it had an outsized influence with its early military assistance to the Assad regime and the lack of U.S. leadership to resolve the situation in Syria in favor of the democracy movement.

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Gives good information on how the Saudi's price their oil.

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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Efforts to improve U.S. Russian cooperation beginning with the Trump negotiated oil deal with Russia, OPEC, and Saudi Arabia. A joint statement by Putin and Trump on the 75th anniversary of the meeting at the Elbe River on April 25, 1945 between American and Soviet troops. The effort to rekindle the spirit of the Elbe at a time of global health crisis.

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To become a low cost producer, Alcoa is investing $1.5 billion on a bauxite mine near Juruti, deep in the Brazilian Amazon jungle. It is also investing $2.2 billion in a mining complex in Saudi Arabia. Compared to its competitors Rio Tinto and UC Rusal, Alcoa is using savings from cost cutting of about $3 billion, to build low cost mining and manufacturing facilities.

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Saudi Oil minister Ali Naimi increased his previous estimate for oil prices needed to balance the needs of producers and consumers. His new estimate is $90, up from the previous estimate of $80. This will give upward momentum to oil prices. The fall in the price of the dollar is affecting OPEC countries, including Libya, Algeria and Venezuela. These countries are looking for a price of $100.

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Saudis help stabilize oil prices at close to $100. This could keep $100 as a price as Canadian tar sands are in the range of $90-95 a barrel, and the Saudis are interested in a stable price that would finance their budgets and also not be a burden to Asian economies which have conveyed their concern and also not be so much as to lead to further decline in the slowing economies of western countries.

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Norway has stepped up to meet Europe's need for oil and gas. About one third of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Norway. After the war started Norway increased gas exports by 8% in 0223 shipping more of it by undersea pipelines to Northern Europe. This increased oil and gas exports from $25 billion in 2021 to $125 billion in 2022. Like Saudi Arabia the government owns not only the oil and gas fields but also has large stakes in the companies that extract oil and gas. For a small country bordering Russia with 5.5 million people this put it in a higher status to meet Europe's plea for energy so that it could heat homes and would not have to shut down some of its industrial capacity. And it left no stone unturned to do this. Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth says that we knew that Norway was always important but we did'nt realize how much. Petoro made $50 billion in 2022 almost three times what it made in 2021. Another of Norway's oil companies Equinor made $75 billion in adjusted earnings in 2022. Political sentiment has shifted too so that climate change that was a priority still is but Norway is willing to increase production for a few years to meet needs of Europe.     ...

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This Journal editorial on Oct 5, 2012, says that by not offering leadership in the Syrian conflict beause it would lead to a wider conflict the U.S. and the European Union face a wider conflict. The current crossborder shelling between Syria and Turkey is the latest evidence of this. Turkey and the Saudis cannot handle this on their own. Without U.S. leadership the costs of this conflict will be even greater, and even poses risks for the Turkish economy if handled badly.

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Pictures of Sheikh Sabah of Kuwait in peacekeeping roles as a diplomat for the Gulf region including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf states. He passed away at the age of 91. The pictures include one with British prime minister Alec Douglas of Britain in 1964 three years after gaining independence from Britain in 1961. With the renewed effort for peace in the Gulf region his role is better appreciated not only as an ally of the U.S. but also as a diplomat keeping good relations for the Gulf states and neighbors. He was foreign minister since the sixties and ruler since 2006. He was one of an older group of leaders in the region who operated with a slow ruling style but sought consensus. During the divisions in the Gulf Cooperation Council with Qatar splitting from the rest in 2016, Sabah was active in keeping the Gulf states together. When he was born in 1929 oil had not been discovered in Kuwait and the area the size of New Jersey was run by his father as part of a dynasty that ruled for 3 centuries. Kuwait has 6% of the world's oil reserves. ...

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Straits of Hormuz 21 miles wide at its narrowest point in the Gulf where Iran faces Oman and Saudi Arabia.  Hormuz waterway that carries 90% of Iranian oil exports to China, 82% of all Asian oil imports, could be disrupted but it is very unlikely because of the $67 billion in oil exports from Iran according to its central bank, 90% of these oil exports going through Hormuz waterway go to China. It would be to unfund it's own oil based economy and affect China not the US or Germany. Germany gets most of its oil supplies from Norway, US and other sources, US is self sufficient after shale oil production surge.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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Matthias Muller, 61, is the new choice for CEO of VW following the emissions scandal in 2015. Changes at VW with the departure of Mr. Winterkorn, include the resignation of Ulrich Hackenberg, chief engineer of Audi, Wolfgang Hatz, chief of R&D at Porsche, and Heinz-Jakob Neusser, development chief of Porsche. Hatz and Hackenberg worked closely with Winterkorn. VW says about 11 million cars were equiped with the software that turned off the emissions control mechanism on the road. This was on the VW Passat, Jetta, Audi 3, all built on the same platform and using this software to circumvent emissions controls. The new head of VW USA is Mr. Vahland, 58, head of Skoda, who is a former manufacturing strategy review chief of GM Europe. Matthias Muller, is backed by the Porsche-Piech families that are large shareholders in VW. Ferdinand Piech had actually lost confidence in Winterkorn and tried to remove him from the CEO position in April 2015, before a turn of events led to the emissions scandal. Muller completed an apprenticeship with Audi in 1977, followed by studying computer engineering at the Munich University of Applied Sciences. In 1984 he joined Audi's IT department, becoming product manager for Audi 3 in 1993, and taking on overall product management at Audi in 1995. In 2007 VW's new CEO Winterkorn appointed him head of product strategy for VW, and in 2010 to the CEO position at Porsche....

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Senator Tom Cotton says in this op-ed article in the NYT that president Obama's inaction in the face of a chemical attack by the Syrian government in 2013 badly damaged American credibility in the world. Failing to act to prevent the extension of the conflict to civilian areas in 2013,  had many adverse consequences- it showed the U.S. lacking the determination to prevent the use of chemical weapons, worsened the refugee crisis in Europe, created the conditions in which the pro Brexit camp could use immigration as a major issue, left the Turkish government without the support it had counted on from NATO allies and facing the brunt of the refugee crisis by itself as it took a downward course. The U.S. has long held the position of being a force that stands up for the basic rights of human beings, alone of all countries it has felt that it had to act when acts of this nature are committed. In this sense more was lost than just the credibility with other countries, in some ways the light shining on the hill could no longer be seen in the world, bringing on a sense that some dark cloud had settled in. ...

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The OPEC meeting in Doha in April 2016 fails to lead to an agreement to freeze oil production at Jan. 2016 levels, with Iran staying away from the meeting.