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The unemployment rate of 5.9% in the US in June 2021 is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. It is also different in other ways that are not so apparent. There are 9 million Americans looking for jobs. They are also looking for jobs outside industries that were hit hard during the pandemic, or pursuing better jobs with less commute and more remote work, and jobs outside of warehousing which requires less of the skills and training they have or in remote locations far from where they live. Economists like to use terms such as "mismatch" to describe this as in this report in WSJ. This does not bring home to us the enormous human toll of the pandemic. A recent survey of US workers for April by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 31% of people do not want to return to their old jobs up from 20% in July 2020. One in three from one in five last year are looking for something different than the the jobs that were hit hard in each successive wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Other surveys have found that 70% of workers who last worked for the leisure and hospitality industries are looking for something in a different industry. Leisure and hospitality that includes restaurants and hotels, airports, were hammered in this pandemic. And 55% of job applicants in one survey were found to be looking for remote work. Economists also see the macroeconomy in terms of supply and demand for labor, in terms of interest rates with low interest rates as a way to tackle unemployment, yet this has limited value in real life situations in the economy when it is affected by a number of factors, including some unusual factors such as the pandemic and man made events such as the global financial crisis of 2009 from banking missteps. The federal government has to take steps of its own to support Americans as these changes take place in the economic situation and Americans are in need of help with adjustments. ...

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Prices can top $100 a barrel, some reasons why this is possible including depleted old field and lower production relative to demand. Important article by King and Chazan because of the experts from Aramco, IEA, and Schlumberger being all pretty much aligned in their view and reasoning that not much is happening in the way of oil exploration and production is happening to meet the extra demand from India, China and deveoping countries. Aramco expert cites older depleted oil fields with a 15 year production plateau, Saddad Al- Husseini estimates that price will go up by $12 for every million barrels a day in additional demand. Nobuo Tanaka the new executive director IEA thinks supply will not keep up with demand because many oilresource rich countries are not bringing in outside investors, and also because he is not sure there will be enough investment, skilled workers and technology to to get the oil out in a timely manner. Note there have been constraints in engineering and manpower shortages. And Andrew Gould CEO of Schlumberger says that 70% of the oil fields are over 30 years old, amd just in the last four years from 2003 the demand has increased by the production thats generated from North Sea and Mexico....

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Didi Kirsten Tatlow describes the experience of Angel Feng, a 26 year old Chinese graduate from a business school in France, fluent in English, French, Japanese and Chinese. She intervews with Chinese companies in 2010, who always ask a last question about whether she is planning to have a baby and refuse to believe her when she says she does not plan this for five years. Her first job is with a company promoting Chinese brands, which turns out to be bad as the company fires people immediately to slash costs, maintains long working hours and does not respect basic rights. One woman has a miscarraige and is ordered back to work in three days. The socialist era structures have been removed in China and this includes some of the protections for women, and the old ideas are returning in force. Angel decides to work for a semi-state organization run by the Ministry of Education. Women's rights are better protected in state sector companies. The pay of $625 a month is abit lower but it has benefits, including lunch at the canteen, housing allowance, and hours are 8.30 to 5 pm for 5 days a week. Her employer, China Education Association for International Exchange, covers childbirth with employees given at least 90 days maternity leave with full pay....

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Oil prices dropped below zero for West Texas Intermediate WTI to be delivered in May ended on Monday at negative $37.63. For oil delivered in June it comes back to positive at $21, and at $32 in November.

What this reflects is that though oil supplies are being cut- including large cuts from market supply and demand forces in the U.S. -this is not reflected in the price today. Producers in Texas and Canada are not able to close wells fast enough so that suppliers are "hitting tank tops" and can't find places to store the oil. As a result the average day rate for VLCC, Very Large Crude Carriers ships which can store 2 millon barrels are up from $29,000 a day to $100,000. This is threefold and spot charter rates are six fold.

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Fiat under Sergio Marchionne has come a long way since he joined in June 2004, and has since executed a most remarkable recovery. At the time he joined in 2004, Fiat was only using 70% of its 2.5 million capacity. Now by 2010 Fiat expects to make 3.5 million vehicles. At the time debt was 4.4 billion euros and cash flow was draining at a rapid rate. The $2 billion from GM as part of their agreement, came in handy to make several new car models. But Marchionne had to start with a whole new team, and tear up the old ways of doing business and the old hierarchy and management. He put a group of younger managers in charge, and brought in a style that was open honest and straight talking, with plenty of direct communication. By 2007 on the back of the Punto and the Fiat 500 and the Bravo and other new models, Fiat had made a record profit of 3.2 billion euros while eliminationg its industrial debt. Its a new way of doing business in Italy. Marchionne had moved quickly and decisively in making changes at Fiat. He flattened out the structure, and gave a small number of younger people the freedom to take the initiative. He also put the former design chief of Pininfarina in charge, and brought all the designers together in Turin's Mirafiori complex in Oficina 83. He put design at the core of the manufacturing process, and cut time to build new models for the Bravo and Fiat 500 from design freeze to production to 18 months from 26, by relying entirely on computer simulations and not building any prototypes. He also gave designers freedom, and took risks when it came to styling to come up with really original and exceptional designing. He also continued developing Fiat's advantage in fuel efficiency of its engines, so that its engines have lower average emissions than any competitor. On the other hand Fiat has been slow to take advantage of the growth in emerging markets in India, China and Russia. Russia for instance will soon become the largest market in Europe, larger than Germany. Fiat shows that the right manager can and does make a difference between disaster and making a big success. Alitalia is now in the situation that Fiat was then, it isstruggling to find its future. With Chrysler's collapse in the US, and the efforts to revive Chrysler, these are lessons applicable in the US also. ...

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The twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4, 1919 movement kept high through the last 100 years are revived at the 20th Chinese CCP Party Congress in 2022. Xi Jinping used the phrase "self reliance in science and technology" five times as the US and EU gradually close the doors to shipping out advanced technologies to China, and limit flows of capital to concentrate on development at home.  A new section was added to his report for "Science and Education."

Xi told the Congress- "We must regard science and technology as our primary productive force, talent as our primary resource, and innovation as our primary driver of growth."

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After the disaster of the Japanese Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011 following a tsunami and earthquake chancellor Merkel made the decision to close nuclear plants. Germany will close 3 nuclear plants in December 2021. Decommissioning will take 20 years and 1.1 billion euros per plant. In 2022 Germany will have only 3 nuclear plants in Bavaria, Baden-Wurttemberg, and Lower Saxony, equivalent to power of 4 gigawatts from 1000 wind turbines. Gas prices are up 10 fold in 2021 as Germany makes the shift to wind and solar. Economy and Climate Protection Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the new German government sees a continuation of the policy removing nuclear plants and shifting to wind and solar.

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Joshua Wong of the group Scholarism is 17 years old and just entering college. His arrest and detention of 40 hours for stepping into a government building area led to increased protests. In 2012 Wong was part of protests that led to the withdrawal of a "patriotic classes" plan for Hong Kong schools. Asked what Hong Kong would be like in 10 years, he says, "there will be universal suffrage." The age of the protesters is one remarkable aspect of these protests, as they are not just young, but very young. And this should give Beijing pause, as this is China's next generation. And what seemed right in your own day may not be right around the corner as time passes, as Mr. Jinping and his revolutionary veteran father experienced, struggled with, and overcame in their own lives because of the tolerance of others.

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What happened on September 10, 2024 in the Harris Trump ABC television debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis? It is hard to prepare for a debate, things can go wrong, unanticipated situations may arise. 67 million audience, 51 million for Biden Trump last debate, it can stress you out- UNLESS you Trust your authentic self knowing people can see through you if you are not honest forthright and stating it clearly. Harris could say she did approve fracking now as policy action she cast decisive vote for new oil leases. I am from a family like yours struggled with a single parent mother, ("not $400 million platter")I also support small businesses. If the other side is telling lies prolifically, make it clear vigorously yet with it not changing your demeanor and your focus on housing, cost of living, experience for NATO "from the same old playbook" and a warning about the lies to come to prepare the audience very early. Save the time responding to insult to use every moment constructively to define your message for the question at hand which is in addition to the questions put to you which are merely for organization immigration, crime, economy, cost of living, chips and science competition, Ukraine, Afghanistan. Harris said nothing about "Marxist economic professor father, other personal insults just acknowledged "It is a tragedy," don't you think fellow citizens? What would 4 years be like under Harris? (and 4 years under Trump?) Here's my plan for housing, for not starting trade wars while letting chips and science help competitors as Trump.   ...

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Pollution levels at the Ilva steel plant in southern Italy's Mezzogiorno region. The family of Vincenzo Vestita, a 35 year old worker at the plant, his father and uncle who also worked at the plant, and their struggle with the effects of pollution. Higher cancer rates are seen in the region surrounding the plant. The Monti government's efforts to provide state money to clean up the plant and keep it open, because it is a major supplier of steel for Italian industry.

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Matthew Slaughter of the Tuck School, Dartmouth, says that the principle of comparitive advantage should determine what America exports and imports. Under comparitive advantage each country concentrates its energies on the particular goods and services that it does better than other countries. Free trade operates under the idea of comparitive advantage, but in practice it is quite different than its textbook economic counterpart. It is constantly changing as new countries or industries in different countries try to upset the existing pattern. Under a textbook example Airbus should not exist because Boeing was the most efficient manufacturer upto that time, and new entrants in a industry are nurtured for years with support from the governments of their countries. And in some situations the governments may exclude certain companies or industries from support such as Komatsu and construction equipment in postwar Japan, and Infosys and software outsourcing in India, and still survive and grow. Under comparitive advantage Japan should still be importing construction equipment from Caterpillar in the US, and there would be no serious competition in that industry. This would work to the detriment of the principle of competition in free trade which is just as important to free trade as the idea of comparitive advantage, with new entrants in an industry upsetting the old way of doing things and creating price/quality improvements. Slaughter simply pulls back off the shelf the old idea of comparitive advantage without seriously considering its real life aspects. Without dealing with trade distortion from currency manipulation, from the impact on jobs, without considering the continuing critical role of manufacturing in developed economies to provide the standards of living for a large middle class, and creating the kind of society that people of developed countries aspire to. He mentions GE's Immelt and the President's Council on Jobs, but makes no effort to engage Immelt 's statement in his recent op-ed article in the Washington Post, that the concept of transitioning from a export-oriented economic powerhouse to a services led consumption based economy could be done without loss of jobs, prosperity and prestige, was fundamentally wrong. He has only one line for manufacturing's role in America's economy. This line says knowledge intensive industries such as education and software are just as important as manufacturing, but fails to mention that manufacturing has received less attention in recent decades. In so doing he is discounting his own profession of concern for the high rate of joblessness in the U.S., and the need for a new focus on manufacturing in the U.S. to reverse that trend. By saying that imports are not a sign of failure but can raise standards of living, and leaving it at that, Slaughter does not acknowledge that consumer debt that US consumers have taken on in the process certainly affects future prospects for the US economy. And he makes no mention of the need for rebalancing the world economy, which is exactly how free trade should work ideally. Countries that have high imports export more to rebalance the world trading system, as currency valuations are allowed to adjust makig their exports more attractive. By not taking into account the realities of free trade, and the need for practical measures to rebalance without policy induced distortions by state run economies, Slaughter ignores the idea of free trade that works as it should and for all countries. The irony is that Immelt's own committment to jobs and competitiveness has been questioned in online blogs and most recently by an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on January 26, 2011, titled "The Misallocators." That editorial refers to the outsize role of GE Capital in GE's earnings during the past decade, and the lack of credibility of a focus on competitiveness and jobs that this creates for GE. It mentions the loss of 34,000 GE jobs in the US during the last decade. ...

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Since 2007 Applle has sold 50 million units of the Apple iPhone, making it Apple's largest business. With the New iPhone 4 analysts expect Apple to sell about 37 million phones in the fiscal year to September 2010. This would be a 79% increase over the 20.7 million sets sold in the prior year. And of global sales analysts say about 55% of sales for the iPhone are from outside the US, compared to 25% 2 years ago. There is a lot of excitement among iPhone fans waiting in line at Apple stores in Europe and Japan, long before the stores opened.

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Matt Dickinson of The times of Lonson gives this story of the youngest winner of the Tour de France, 22 years old,  from a small town 25 miles north of Bogota, Colombia. His dad is a guard for the local cathedral and is his son's motor pacer and mechanic.  Cycling is huge in Colombia. Zipaquira is 2600 metres or 8600 feet up in the Andes mountains. A nearby climb of 23 kilometres is described by Bernal as his "office" and his father rides up ahead with him on this daily training.  In the trials Bernal was 22nd and this never fazed him even though on Stage 13 in Pau he fell behind colleague Geraint Thomas by 1 minute 22 seconds. In the final run in the Alps Julian Alaiphilippe of France who had shaken up the race faltered, Geraint Thomas  also did not keep up. so that Bernal with the Andean training and serious work prevailed with 1 minute 11 seconds to spare to win. Much of his maturity comes from working within a family where the mom and dad live together to keep costs down but have separated. As the elder of two children Bernal gained maturity in having to work with both parents to keep the home together. The first thing he has done with his new earnings is to buy a flat for his mom. Sky team's Brailsford who hired Bernal describes the confidence and maturity he has encountered in Bernal. At 22 years of age he is seen as having a bright future ahead of him. ...

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Michael Phillips of the WSJ provides a profile of typical Donald Trump supporters, a couple Joey and Tina Elias, driving from Alabama to Pensacola, Florida to attend a Trump rally. Joey, 46 years old, lost his job in 2010, and has since worked at jobs a little above the minimum wage. Tina, 44 years old, is assistant director of a daycare center. They have worked hard to build a house on a 3 acre plot of land, after living for several years in a mobile home. They have 2 children, and Joey says he has to worry about job security before making any purchases. They are against free trade, as its not seen as favoring working Americans. They favor a strong military, because they see president Obama as defunding the military and weakening America overseas. They say they are not racially motivated, believe in God, but not church going. They don't feel strongly about social cultural issues, believing in live and let live. They say they like Trump not because he is saying anything new, only because he has voiced their concerns, they have felt this way for a long time. They want to see America winning- and to win as the country wins. What is striking is that the couple face some of the same job insecurity, and the paycheck to paycheck job insecurity and fear of losing what they have with job loss, that is being felt by average working Americans after the 2009 economic crisis. On the Democratic side Bernie Sanders is gaining support from white working class people who share the same anxieties about economic insecurity following the 2009 economic crisis....

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Ukraine was one of the poorest countries in the European Union in the last decade and was not growing as fast as other countries in Eastern Europe. One of the reasons it was looking to the west, the EU and the US, was to increase growth and boost incomes. A policy opposed by Russia.  This report in WSJ looks at the effort of a 41 year old economist Mr. Marchenko who heads the central bank. Ukraine's revenues only support 40% of government spending. Ukraine needs $3 billion in aid every month. The currency is down 20% in value and the GDP is expected to be 30% lower in 2022. He says every day and night it is a constant headache. The US and Britain were quick to help and provide steady aid. The EU and Germany with internal wrangling have not come up with $8 billion of the $9 billion in aid promised to Ukraine to rebuild the infrastructure that is being destroyed by Russia, and support the war effort to defend Ukraine. Even with $3 billion a month in aid Ukraine depends on printing money and risking further decline in the currency to pay soldiers, war needs, and meet basic spending needs. The plans are not just for 2022 but extend into 2023. Grain a key export is only now making its way out of Odessa with the UN and Turkey arranging the way out for grain ships. ...

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France goes to the polls on April 10. Marie Le Pen is shrinking Mr. Macron's lead in the polls. Most of the other candidates other than Mr. Melenchon show less than 10% support from voters including Valerie Pecresse of the Republicans who have failed to arouse much enthusiasm The Republicans and the Socialist party of Mr. Mitterand and Mr. Hollande were defeated in the last presidential election by Mr. Macron. Today the choice is between Le Pen with her inexperience and her policies skeptical of the European Union and Mr. Macron who is more experienced but lacking an effective social policy in addressing the social problems in France raised by the yellow vist protesters. Immigration is an issue in this campaign and Mr. Macron has taken a tougher stand on immigration and cultural issues following several terrorist incidents. There is a general lack of enthusiasm with 25% of the voters not expected to vote, many of them 25-34 years old. With 37% of the voters not decided which way they will vote and some votes cast even if the candidate selected was seen as having some drawbacks, the elections in France are a vivid contrast to the recent election in Germany with the Greens and Social Democrats ending the CDU's four terms leading the government under Merkel. Mr. Macron only campaigned in the last 8 days before the election.   ...

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The thinktank Onward says a relatively small shift rightward on cultural issues would deliver for the Labour party a 1997 type of landslide at the next election. Today's 12 point lead for Labour is fragile and could be watered down to 4 points and an uncertain result. It says that people who are conservative on social issues and still favor Labour on economic and climate policy are the ones Labour should go for. They make up 61% of all voters in Britain and 78% of voters who would switch. Keir Starmer has a way through.

On sees this in Starmer's enthusiasm for his visit to Westminster Abbey for the coronation of Charles as monarch of Britain. The positions he takes on many cultural issues have this in mind bringing Labor into the mainstream and making it a bold innovator for Britain, taking pride in the nation's scientific and maritime achievements from the Industrial Revolution.

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Mikaela Shiffrin is now one of the best downhill skiers of all time. After she failed in four races in the Beijing Olympics she lost some of the spirit she had. Rachel Bachman describes a visit to Roger Federer's home in the Alps that helped restore Mikaela's spirit and gave her some important advice on longevity in sport. First it was time to take a look around you notice things and breathe it all in. As Federer put it- "You need to take the moments to look up and around you, to appreciate where you are, breathe it in." It is when you are in the depths of your career and it is difficult to do this, that when it is the most important to do this, Federer told Mikaela Shiffrin and her mother Eileen on that day at lunch in the Federer home in the Swiss Alps.

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In this month's Mann Ki Baat, Indian PM Modi's radio show, the young Indians participating in the 65th Math Olympiad are invited to take part in the Radio Show. India wins 4 gold one silver medals and is in the top 5 countries in the Math Olympiad. The contestants talk about their experience, the support of parents, the creativity that enables thinking outside the box, some problems take hours to solve even days at a time. Contestants are from Pune, Delhi, UP, and other parts of the country. "Love what you, and do what you love," says one contestant, who describes math as not a difficult subject when one understands why one does what they do. For example carry forward in addition, why do you carry forward, math is a problem solving skill, and when does it in this way then the fear of math will go away.

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The value of the gold holdings of the Swiss central bank, the Swiss National Bank, declined by 15 billion Swiss Francs ($16.6 billion) in 2013, as the price of gold declined by 28% in 2013. The loss was much more than gains of 3 billion francs in foreign currency positions and 3 billion francs in profit from sales from a fund holding troubled assets. As a result the bank will not pay dividends fro the first time since its founding in 1907. Prices declined as the Fed announced a policy of reversing its bond buying in 2013. In 2008-2012 the U.S. Fed's bond buying efforts pushed up prices of gold holdings as a hedge against inflationary risks. Signs of economic recovery in the U.S. are likely to lead to further price declines. Purchases of gold made after 2010 are now showing losses. The Russian central bank made 30% of all gold purchases since 2010 made by central banks and reported to the IMF.

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This article in The Indian Express shows that even though Subhas Chandra Bose differed with Mohandas Gandhi during the late 1930's, Bose had a deep respect and affection for Gandhi in mobilizing the Indian people for Swaraj. Bose's relationship with Nehru and Patel were of people at the same level and appeared to compete for attention compared to the relationship with Gandhi which was one of mentor and follower. In the end Bose's restlessness at British refusal to negotiate Swaraj and Gandhi's patience led to Bose actively resisting British rule in 1940.  Mohandas Gandhi had deep faith in the Bhagavad Gita and believed the lines in the Bhagavad Gita where it says- "Whenever, O descendent of Bharata, there is decline of Dharma, and rise of Adharma, then I embody Myself. For the protection of the good, for the destruction of the wicked, and for the establishment of Dharma, I come into being in every age." Gandhi wrote in his Discourses on the Bhagavad Gita on November 11, 1930- "God dwells in our hearts as the holy spirit within us, and when yearning for knowledge, like Arjuna, we take our spiritual difficulties to Him, and seek his guidance, seek refuge in Him, He is ever ready to instruct us." The other way in which Gandhi differed was in his deep insights and views of the British as a people that Bose lacked. Some of this came from his days in London and some of this from his days in South Africa working with and negotiating with the British. Mohandas Gandhi says in Hind Swaraj in 1910- "The English merchants were able to get a footing in India because we encouraged them. When our princes fought among themselves they sought the help of Company Bahadur. That corporation (British East India Company) was vested alike in commerce and war. It was unhampered by questions of morality. Its object was to increase its commerce and make money. It accepted our assistance, and increased the number of its warehouses. To protect the latter it employed an army which was utilized by us also. Is it not then useless for us to blame the British for what they did at that time? The Hindus and the Mahomedans were at daggers drawn. This too, gave the Company its opportunity, and thus we created the circumstances that gave the British control over India. Hence it is truer to say that we gave India to the British than India was lost. The causes that gave them India help them retain it. Some Englishmen say they took India and they hold India by the sword, both these statements are wrong. The sword is entirely useless for holding India. We alone keep them." Gandhi''s view of India was of a nation of shopkeepers, even citing Kruger of South Africa when he was asked if there was gold on the moon. Kruger said likely not, for if there was the British would have annexed it. By 1945 when Gen. Wavell, the Viceroy wrote back to London that he would require more army divisions to control India than Britain could afford, or the British people had the will to support or had commercial interests worth protecting after the war, the British moved up the year of their withdrawal. And began the negotiations with Gandhi for independent India.  Gandhi also says that in his reading of Vivekananda's writings the love that I had for my country became a thousand-fold. Gandhi looked to Vivekananda for inspiration in some of his ideas on Swaraj. Bose says Vivekananda's writings sent him into raptures yet saw Vivekananda "simple as a child" not realizing the spiritual strength Vivekananda had drawn from which overcomes all. As the Lord says in the Bhagavad Gita- "I am the Self, O Gudakesa, existent in the heart of all beings, I am the beginning, the middle, and also the end of all beings. Of the Adityas, I am Vishnu, of luminaries, the radiant Sun; of the winds I am Marici; of the asterisms, the moon."   ...

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Germany's national broadcaster DW.com looks into the details of the vaccination drive in countries around the world, including Germany, and finds that there is more to the story than meets the eye in headlines about safety in vaccinations. Many headlines do not tell the whole story carefully. DW revewed reports from Italy, Austria, South Korea, Germany, Spain, the USA, Norway, Belgium and Peru, and found that in most cases health authorites have not found causal links between the vaccination and deaths.  As of March 15 it says 360 million people have been vaccinated in 120 countries, or about 9.25 million a day.  DW.com cites the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which states: 'there is no indication that vaccination has caused these conditions, which are not listed as side effects with this vaccine. Information available so far indicates that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than that seen in the general population." As of March 10, 2021 30 cases of blood clots are recorded for 5 million people vaccinated with Astra Zeneca vaccine in the European Economic Area.  The Paul Ehrlich Institute which is in charge of vaccination in Germany has looked into 113 reported deaths in 46 years to 100 years old patients in Germany. Of these 113 deaths PEI finds that 20 died of the Covid 19 infection as it takes 14 days after the second dose for full protection, and 43 died of pre-existing conditions or other infections. For the patient population it says "they were seriously ill patients with many underlying diseases." PEI says "based on the data we have we assume they died of their underlying disease- in a coincidental time with the vaccination." A virologist at the Technical University of Munich, says that the deaths after vaccination are below the expected number of deaths without the vaccination.  ...

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China faces the problem of an ageing population as births decline and their are fewer young people to support senior citizens. The shift to a two child limit after the policy limiting children to one per couple has not accomplished the goal of restoring the birth rate. The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the president Xi Jinping have taken the decision to allow three children per family.  This comes at a time when the old policy meant a fine of 10 times the disposable income for having a third child. The law was not enforced in all regions but acted to deter larger families. Yet there is a cultural effect of decades of having smaller families that will not be easily overcome with a change in the law. In Latin America smaller families are the result of decades of cultural change towards smaller families. Young people are increasingly aware of the cost of raising and educating an additional child, and the effect on the standard of living. Experts say it is too costly to raise another child  and housing is not cheap in China.  This discussion with 3 billion comments over Weibo in the discussion of this policy in China last week, misses a more obvious point from the graph shown in this report in The Guardian. That graph shows the curve for the birth rate in 2019 dropping faster in South Korea and Japan than in China, so that in 2019 the birth rate in Japan and South Korea was lower than in China. This shows that even without a one child policy the birth rate in Chia would be closer to that of South Korea after industrialization progressed and society experienced profound cultural and economic change. Japan today has the lowest birth rate in Asia. The Latin American experience also confirms this shift to small families. ...

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Haruhiko Kuroda, 68 years old, a senior finance ministry expert who ran the ministry's currency policy as vice finance minister for 4 years in the early 2000's, is prime minister Abe's nominee for central bank chief. He lectured at Hitoshibashi University for two years before becoming the head of the Asian Development Bank. His book "Success and Failure in Fiscal and Monetary Policy," is critical of the Bank of Japan for mistakes in being first too accomodative in monetary policy to set up the 1987 crash, and then tightening too quickly leading to the deflation and recessions of the last two decades. By choosing an expert with a long experience in the field of monetary policy and a vigorous advocate of getting things right to shake off the deflationary trends, Abe is sending a strong signal to financial markets. Kuroda says he is looking at a shorter time frame to achieve a 2% target for inflation- about two years. In essence Kuroda is taking a page from the policy book of a small group of MIT trained economists, Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve, Draghi at the European Central Bank, and Mervyn King at the Bank of England to boost domestic economies in the context of increasing global growth. The yen weakened to 94.77 to the dollar on Feb 25, 2013, after the announcement. Abe's nominee for one of two deputy governor appointments is Kikuo Iwata, a 70 year old economist who was also critical of Bank of Japan monetary policy since the 1990's. The Abe administration has also carefully communicated this message. Speaking at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. Abe said Japan's goal was to increase exports, but at the same time it will increase imports which should benefit the U.S., China, India and other countries. He described a recovery in Middle America from the Dakotas to the Carolinas and sees something like this happening also in Japan. Even the appeals to nationalist sentiment are also coupled with the message to China and S. Korea of not climbing up the escalation ladder and seeking good relations to promote mutually beneficial development. Abe's focus is on building the U.S.- Japan relationship....