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The U.S. takes in 70,000 refugees a year, but only 1500 Syrian refugees have been taken in by the U.S. by Sept. 2015, as a huge migrant refugee crisis unfolds in Europe. Germany has to make the same background checks and is moving quickly, the U.S. takes 18-24 months. The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Middle East under the Obama administration led to the collapse of the fragile situation in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and the unraveling of these countries, a direct cause of the massive refugee crisis in the region with about half the Syrian population and large parts of Iraqi, Kurdish, and Libyan population dislocated. The result is a massive humanitarian crisis, turning the hopes of the Arab Spring into something no one could have imagined across North Africa. In a small Lutheran church in Frankfurt, Paulskirche, is the German story of a popular movement that spread throughout Europe in 1848, for a transition from autocratic governments to parliamentary democracy. Aspirations similiar to that expressed in the Middle East and North Africa in 2013-2014 in the Arab Spring were expressed in Germany and many parts of Europe in 1848. In the centre of Berlin on the Kurfstendamm lie the bombed but preserved ruins of the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church, telling the story of the intervening years 1848-1949. It took many years before the same aspirations for liberty found shape in Germany's Public Law of 1949, finally finding a safe resting place after years of failing to unify a people around the ideas of liberty and justice for all, and not nationalism. Germans who had the hardest time waging that fight, by embracing the refugees in a spirit of openness carry on that fight into this century. Paul asks the question- who will lead? A Lutheran pastor's daughter takes up the fight without the slightest hesitation, and full measure of confidence with the words- "Europe will have failed on the question of refugees, if the close connection between it and universal civil rights is destroyed." ...

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Negotiations in Qatar end with the signing of a peace agreement with the Taliban for the first time in two decades. President Trump persisted in the effort following stalled talks in September 2018. Talks went on for 18 months with Afghan American diplomat Khalizad appointed by president Trump to lead negotiations. The agreement was signed in Qatar by Khalizad and Mullah Baradar, in the presence of Secretary of State Pompeo. President Trump stated his view on Afghanistan and places such as Iraq in a New Delhi press conference recently- the U.S. could not act in a (permanent) police role in foreign countries. Efforts were made under previous presidents to end the conflict. President Trump persisted and made this a priority of his administration, following similar policy in Syria and Iraq, where strong deployment of American forces was followed by removal of forces. From beginning to end the deployment was planned in this way, so that resources could be used to improve capabilities for future needs. ...

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The U.S. National Security Agency is going through four separate reviews- one by a White House internal review team, by the Review Group for Intelligence and Communications Technology setup by president Obama in August 2013, by the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board setup in 2004, and by the Senate Intelligence Committee. Sources say the head of the agency Gen. Alexander offered to resign but this was not accepted because it would be seen as a win for Snowden. Proposals being considered are having a civilian head the agency, setting up a process where a determination is made balancing the potential value of the information with any political implications. Decisionmakers at the NSA are trained to be apolitical in collecting intelligence making it difficult for them to make such determinations. The recording of conversations on Merkel's mobile phone was made at the request of the State Department. Mr Ledgett, a senior NSA official says there are 36,000 pages of "requirements" or intelligence requests from all parts of the U.S. government, including State, Defense, and Commerce. What to do with such requests and how to assess them will now be important questions for NSA. One of the risks of the NSA revelations is that individual countries will impose restrictions on the internet to protect information leading to a fragmentation of the Worldwide Web. U.S. relations with Iran have remained stuck in the original atmosphere of the period under U.S. president Carter in the late seventies with the Islamic revolution with the most recent president Ahmadinejad being one of the activists from that period, the isolation and sanctions have also created a siege mentality in the Islamic republic. The U.S. and the world has changed since that period after over three decades. The Obama administration sees an opportunity to gradually resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis by relaxing tensions and giving small wins to moderates in Iran like Mr Rouhani. Rouhani may see a way out for Iran's isolation and falling behind other countries in the region in developing its oil resources and economy. The moves also helps to reduce new sectarian tensions in the Middle East as the different countries take sides in the Syria....

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The life of one young family with children since 2001 when the couple married from midle class prosperity to surviving on handouts with things deteriorating rapidly after 2003 when Al Quaeda bombed a holy mosque of the Shiite faith starting a wave of Shiite and Sunni conflict and making it impossible for Sunni and Shiites to live together. There are about 2 million refugees or displaced persons in Iraq largely a result of the Sunni and Shiite conflict and defacto partition of Iraq as Sunnis move to Sunni areas and Shiites to shiite areas much like what happened in the Punjab during partition and the creation of Pakistan. Another 2 million are refugees in Syria and Jordan. In 2008 its 5 years since the US invasion of Iraq and there is an assessment of what has happened since. The war and the insurgency has led to 180,000 killed according to one estimate by Iraqi Ministry of Health. There were elections leading to a Shiite dominated government and regional autonomy for the Kurdish part, but after Sunnis from the old regime took up arms as insurgents the Americans largely failed to provide the security to ordinary Iraqis. Then after local militias of Sunnis and Shiites took over their areas security, it was largely provided by the militias in their areas and the whole tone of the conflict shifted to that between sectarian communities. Since 2007 the tribal leaders who supported the insurgents shifted their allegiance to the Americans, who essentially now ensure security and transition for an interim administration, while a defacto partition of Iraq has already ocurred and is being completed. The Americans will essentially have reversed the creation of Sunnis as a privileged minority, which happened under the British after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire turned the area over to the British, and the British crushed a Shiite uprising. Leading afterwards to the creation of an independent Iraq from territories put together from the British colonial period following the Ottoman collapse. Now the area reverts to what it was before either the Ottomans or the British to what it was when it was a Shiite region, without the borders such as Iran and Iraq and Shiite religious centers extended from Iran into Iraq, which may account for the strong religious feeling of Shiite communities regardless of these borders. What of the Sunni minority around and in provinces near Baghdad? These communities could only prosper with some kind of neighborly coexistence with the Shiite communities of the region, which is the best the U.S. can do for the region promote some kind of neighborly coexistence between the communties and exit gracefully. ...

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Friedman describes how the farmers who left the rural areas in search of work and settled outside Aleppo and other towns after a severe drought were radicalized by the lack of help from the Assad regime. About 800,000 people migrated from their farms in the countryside to cities in Syria, and settled outside the cities without help and basic services from the Assad regime. When the call for democracy came they were the first to join the protests.

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A terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey, in Jan. 2015. Most of the people killed and injured are German tourists. The attack targets Turkey's tourism industry.

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David Brooks of the NYT comments on the Hillary Clinton interview by Goldberg in the Atlantic magazine, where she criticized U.S. president Obama for a weak foreign policy and failure to act in Syria. Brooks says Obama's failure to act in the robust manner Clinton is advocating only leads Obama into situations where he is forced to act later as the situation deteriorates with more serious consequences for the U.S. By not acting in a timely manner the U.S. may be forced into greater involvement later, which makes Obama's "don't do stupid stuff" less of a sound idea than it appears. As Clinton points out not leading to better decisions in the same manner as the Bush-Cheney jingoistic policy making.

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One military expert says even if half of the Iraqi army can be put in shape it could turn the tide against the ISIS. Advice from U.S. military experts is for the Iraqi army to focus only on the ISIS and avoid hurting relations with the Sunni population. Advisers are seen as making a difference and needed also for the tribal forces. A major difficulty is that Shiite militias and advisors from Iran play a role in the forces loyal to prime minister Maliki. Following the U.S. training of the Iraqi Army at a cost of over $25 billion there was a period under prime minister Maliki when he appointed officers more for loyalty than for military skills and training. With the U.S. withdrawal the Iraqi Army languished in this situation. Reporters from NYT and WSJ have documented extensively the weakness of the Iraqi Army in commanding officers, in training and in equipment.

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Friedman calls Netanyahu the Mubarak of Israel for the way he has not moved forward on a treaty and settlement with the Palestinians, especially he says after Al Jazeera revealed significant concessions by the Palestinians under Mahmoud Abbas. He says Israel should move quickly to reach a settlement with the Palestinians, and as he puts it disentangle itself from the larger Arab story as it unfolds.