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The U.S. and the EU join together for stronger economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions affecting large Russian banks ability to raise capital in financial markets are likely to affect the Russian economy. Russia was suspended for export credit and development finance. VTB Bank was one of three more Russian banks added to the list of banks with economic sanctions. The EU took similiar action against Russian state owned banks and imposed an arms embargo in July end 2014.

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Total's new CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, is moving ahead with plans for the $27 billion Russian Arctic Yamal LNG project. As China shifts away from coal with increased imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas, it is keen on providing financing for the project. Chinese banks will provide the bulk of the financing. Pouyanne disclosed in an WSJ interview that this would be $15 billion in Chinese bank financing to be arranged in 2015. Most of the LNG will go to meet China's needs. Partners in the Yamal project are OAO Novatek of Russia, and China National Petroleum Corporation. OAO Novatek's major shareholder is on the western sanctions list making it difficult to obtain financing from western banks. This makes the project riskier because of foreign exchange risks taken on by Total SA which are to hedge against.

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Steven Lee Myers provides an exceptionally good report from Russia on the 2014 Sochi Olympics. He describes an effort by the Putin administration in Russia to develop Sochi which extends for 90 miles along the Black Sea, the only subtropical seashore in Russia. Here Myers interviews Pakhomov, a Putin supporter, who is Mayor of Sochi, to get a picture of how Putin supporters see this effort. Pakhomov says this part of Russia was never developed and foreigners have a poor view of Russia, with one westerner telling him that Russia had little except vodka and bears. For the first time the entire Sochi areas has seen a massive infrastructure effort with roads, railways and a new airport. Myers gets a different picture from Yulia Naberezhnaya, a scientist who is a Putin critic and environmental leader in the Western Caucusus, who he interviews after meeting at a bus stop in Sochi. Naberezhnaya heads Environmental Watch of the North Caucusus which sees the environmental laws being ignored in construction work. The country is divided with nationalistic feeling running high before the Olympics, and a friend of Naberezhnaya finding herself on the opposite side with work in the security services. She warns her to be careful- something Naberezhnaya says has Kafkesque overtones. Myers also meets Boris Nemtsov, a senior official in the Yeltsin government, who participated in street protests during the recent elections in Russia, and is critical of the money spent in this Olympics. Estimates of the money spent run as high as $51 billion, in comparison the Olympics in Beijing, China cost about $40 billion. Dmitri Chernyshenko, president of the Sochi Olympics Organizing Committee sees the project as one that unites the nation, while critics such as Nemtsov see it as a huge overspending and corruption favoring Putin's friends in the business community. Myers is acting Moscow Bureau Chief for the NYT and has done extensive interviewing for this report, including an interview with Vladimir Yakunin, head of Soviet Railways. Yakunin says his company's investment of $1.3 billion will take 20 years to recover but puts it on the scale of the Trans-Siberian Railway build by Czar Nicholas II, which helped bring Russia its current borders reaching to the Far East. And yet the question of cost is never far from people's minds, coming at a time when growth is slowing in Russia- emerging markets currency values incluing the ruble are declining and they are having a tough time attracting foreign investment. A member of the International Olympic Committee, Gian-Franco Kasper, is reported to have told Swiss SRF radio that about a third of the spending on Sochi was lost because of corruption and excessive costs....

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Washington Post Analysis and reporting shows Russian economy is now sensitive to cuts in oil purchases by India. Russian economy with $213 billion a year in the war effort would suffer from higher inflation and interest rates higher than current 18% if India cuts Russian oil purchases of about $119 billion a year. A shift may be already taking place as India buys more from Saudis, UAE and Iraq. Studies by CLSA cited in the Economic Times show India gaining only about $1 to 3 billion by buying Russian oil. India has much more to gain by shifting away from Russian oil. Russian inflation is at 9% and the economic growth is about 0.4%.  A further increase in interest rates from 18% in a war time economy could kill the civilian economy say experts in Russia the Washington Post has talked to. About 17% of Russian refineries production is removed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia, leading to higher prices for oil. More crude oil is being exported instead of refined product as a result. This explains why the US under president DJT decided to take the difficult step to deter India from Russian oil purchases as it would not have been able to get China to reduce its $136 billion Russian oil purchjases each year the way it could for India. This was done to end the war even though it is little understood in India.  ...

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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

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The director of research at one of two cybersecurity companies that monitors disinformation used by the Senate Intelligence Committee to analyze and give reports on the Russian disinformation activities 2014-2017, shares her conclusions. Information from Facebook, Google and Twitter was turned over to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, which in turn handed it over to the two cybersecurity companies for analysis and reports. The Russian disinformation activities have continued in 2018, according to DeResta. The domestic propagandists and actors have taken these methods and used it to target sub groups, expanding the scope of these activities. The advertising related segmentation provided by these companies gives a ready made tool to easily target subgroups in the U.S. population. The viral activity arising from this means the message is carried over to other groups. As a result many groups are affected, affecting how democracy works through vigorous, yet intelligent debate. Explicit bias happens in election campaigns yet this is not spread through anonymous sources that are not identified and whose interests are known, as in disinformation efforts in a medium that spreads information quickly and without any depth whatsoever. For some minority subgroups the effects as ubiquitous, says the report. This report concludes that it is the responsibility of government, private organizations and individuals, and the tech companies combined to tackle this, as tech companies do not have the resources to deal with it. Its not enough to adjust how you sell advertising as tech companies are doing, says the report. The whole ecosystem of information is being compromised in multiple and still not fully understood ways, making it essential that a comprehensive solution with multiple combined efforts address it effectively. ...

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As the European leaders Starmer, Macron, Merz gather together, huddle together at meetings in London, Paris and Brussels, as the US under DJT and Rubio disengage from NATO and perceived expansion, Ariane Chemin gives this report and video in Le Monde on the situation in classrooms, around Square in the centrer of Kviv, at destroyed power plants, and at destroyed buildings in Kviv. Russian drone attacks on Kviv are leaving residents without electricity and without sleep. This is also what Europeans in France and Germany, and Britain, are seeing on news, video and on television.  The last peace initiative stalled after the hopes raised from the Alaska meeting of Putin and the US president. Efforts to get the Russians on board with US envoys in Moscow fail when the European leaders are absent in the talks, and when Russia insists on the 20% of the Donbass and eastern regions it does not control, and limits on Ukraine defense. Ukraine modifies the proposals and Russia insists on territorial concessions. A report in Germany's DW.com from Ukraine calls this "absurd." A new element emerges in this conflict in December 2025 when one sees this in the context of European history where such struggles between European powers happened repeatedly since 1500, with some of them in the period after 1700 involving Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Britain, France, Spain, Prussia and rest of Germany split into many states. That pattern has relevance today because when one power whether France, Austria-Hungary or Russia became dominant the other European powers acted together to keep the balance in Europe.  ...

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The US envoy to Belarus responds to overtures from Belarus's leader Lukashenko for improved relations, release of hundreds of political prisoners including the husband of a opposition leader who is thought to have won the last Belarus open elections in 2020. Today it is not realized that politicians with lack of vision or foresight - Bush, Obama, Merkel, failed to grasp that in 2020 two events happened that were linked- the Belarus electons bringing another pro-EU government on Russia's border which was squashed before it could take office and the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong also squashed in 2020 by China PRC. Crimea was made part of Russia in 2014 when Ukrainian protesters in Kviv and Lviv near Poland ousted the government of pro Russia leader Yanukovych in the Maidan revolution. Russia under Putin responded 2014-2020 with a simmering effort to take parts of eastern Ukraine that were close to and sympathetic to Russia. This was an effort to counter NATO or pro-EU countries coming to Russia's borders in the way JFK opposed pro-Russian regime in Cuba. Obama and Merkel never understood or grasped this or were too involved in the eurozone, migration crises (Merkel) or war in Afghanistan (Obama). The result was that in 2020 Russia helped squash the election results in Belarus with another pro-EU government impending. Within 2 years Russia under Putin with tacit Chinese support invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. Belarus shares a border with Russia and it is closely allied with Russia in the Eurasian Economic Zone that includes former Soviet Bloc countries such as Kazakhstan. Gradually following the recovery of the Russian economy by 2010 the emphasis shifted to create something similar to the Soviet Union, a bloc of countries in central Asia and in Eastern Europe that are part of a Russian sphere of influence. For much of the period of the Obama/ Merkel administrations in US and Germany this was ignored as most of the politicians never gave Russia the importance it sought, not accepting that the economic power was not measured only in GDP- also in science and technology, nuclear technologies, space, in energy resources, and Russia's position in Northern/Central Europe and Central Asia since 1700.  It is this situation that the DJT administration faced with US challenges of the Mexican and Venezuelan drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere has responded with the Monroe Doctrine to reassert American influence in Latin America by respecting Russia's effort to have some measure of influence on its borders, that the US seeks on it's borders. Without Russian or Chinese intervention in Latin America and with the the Monroe Doctrine in place America can protect the interests of the American people and the people of Latin America for free and good government. What Bush, Obama, Merkel lost sight of is that by each power having some strong measure of influence in their regions, and the tendencies for benevolent influence put in place, there is significantly more room for respecting the hopes and aspirations of people in their regions through democratic or other people oriented forms of government than by the situation in which economically the US was dominant after the fall of the Berlin Wall but other influences would lead to US decline- open but not free trade with China, and the recovery of the Russian economy, drug and people trafficking by gangs in Latin America where the Monroe Doctrine for US leadership had prevailed till the 1960's. ...

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German chancellor Scholz finally approves 14 Leopard tanks for Ukraine. Shown here in this report is a graph of all the in service and stored Leopard tanks in individual countries of Europe including Poland, Spain and Finland which are ready to supply these tanks to Ukraine. Scholz says that he has acted with international coordination with the US. Ukraine says it needs a lot more tanks to face an expected Russian offensive and to initiate its own operations in coming months in the south and east.

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Russia is seeking guarantees from the US that Ukraine will not join NATO. Russian concern is that NATO would put in missiles on countries along its border. A Russian buildup on its border with Ukraine continues with the prospect of an invasion. President Biden and president Putin of Russia will discuss ways to resolve the situation this week in a phone call.

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Alexei Kudrin on the potential for a deep economic and political crisis in Russia if Greece exits the eurozone and Europe goes into a recession.

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The economic crisis in the Russian city of Yaroslavl, 150 miles northeast of Moscow on the Volga river. Auto sales are down 30% and the city's diesel engine making plant is down to working only 3 days aweek. Many of the other factories and plants here are laying off people and are also on 3 days a week. Cafes and bars in the city are empty and people are filling job search centers.

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This article clearly shows that Russia is turning the corner for full scale use of western technology to tap oil and gas fields in the North. Note the efforts to bring in western expertise include- 1. Efforts to hire Donald Evans, former U.S. Commerce Secretary, to be Chairman of Rosneft. Evans turned down the offer. The hiring of Peter O'Brien a former Morgan Stanley investment banker as chief financial advser.2. With China National Petroleum as a strategic partner. 2. The financial backing and expertise of state run oil companies around the world now give them the ability to contract directly with Schlumberger or Baker Hughes or other oil field technology suppliers. This changes the whole playing field with less need to negotiate with the major oil companies and the ability to do it themselves at their own pace and strategic advantage and execute their own oil policy. Previously negotiating with the oil companies meant giving up some of the ownership of the oil fields to the oil companies in return for the technology. The oil services companies sell the technologies on a fee basis. 3. The pressure to move ahead aggressively with new technology. Estimates from IEA in Paris by Chief Economist Fatih Birol, show that increasing oil production by one and half million barrels a day to level of ten and half million barrels a a day requires Russia to invest $900 billion dollars by 2030 or about 40 billion a year. The only way to generate this kind of investment is to grow its oil development capabilities, keep prices high but stable, invest in the latest technology and bring some of it inhouse....