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Lt. General John Allen suceeds General Petraeus as head of the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. He is best known for promoting the Sunni Awakening in Anbar province, Iraq, that helped the U.S. win the confidence of Sunni tribal leaders and quell the insurgents there.

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 US warning to Iran to open Straits of Hormuz to international shipping or face attacks on its power plants. DJT gives a 48 hour warning on December 22, 2026.

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This editorial in the Washington Post describes the ballistic missile test by Iran in December 2015, and says the Obama administration has not responded effectively to this because of President Obama's effort to protect his legacy in the nuclear agreement.

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program describe what to look for and in what time frame in the 2012 negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and other European countries in Istanbul, Turkey over Iran's nuclear program.

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Thomas Erdbrink provides a detailed report on the Iranian side in the negotiations and the initiative of Ayatollah Khamanei in opening up discussions with the Obama administration in Oman. The result was an opening for private talks betwen Iran and the U.S., parallel to the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.

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Rising inflation at 20% in Iran in Dec 2011. Cash payments by the government to soften the impact of lower subsidies on fuel and other products brings more rials into circulation, leading to higher inflation. Sanctions are also affecting the economy. The rial has declined in value from 7000 rials to the dollar in October 2011 to 15,150 rials in December 2011, according to the Fars News Agency.

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This editorial in the WSJ on July 16, 2016, says president Obama did not negotiate from a position of strength because of a series of decisions in the Middle East during his administration that suggested a U.S. lack of engagement. This was unlike Reagan's position with the Soviets. It describes the diplomacy as being weakened from it becoming apparent that president Obama wanted a deal with Iran badly.

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Contrast today's prisoner exchange with Russia and elation at the WSJ News Desk with this title from a senior NYT reporter Steven Erlanger, and one sees how difficult the Middle East is, still is, after decades of war in Iraq-Iran with Reagan/Rumsfeld taking sides and beginning three decades of wars. Wars that went through several administrations to be finally ended in Afghanistan by president Biden saving vital resources for the Nation and the Free World.

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A study group at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy sends a public letter to U.S. president Obama on the Iran negotiations. It says the nuclear agreement negotiated with Iran "may fall short of the administration's own standard of a 'good' agreement." It is signed by some of Mr. Obama's main advisors during the first term. Some of these officials told the NYT that the letter was the result of serious concern that Mr. Kerry and other negotiators were moving towards major concessions that would weaken the international inspections of Iran's facilities, back away from making Iran reveal suspected past work on weapons, and allow Iranian R&D to move ahead with making nuclear fuel once the accord expires. The five Obama advisors from the first term who signed the letter are: Dennis Ross, Middle East negotiator, David Petraeus, CIA director, Robert Einhorn, State Department proliferation expert, Gary Samore, chief advisor on nuclear policy, Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman Jt. Chiefs of Staff. Gary Samore is president of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran. The letter was also signed by President Bush's national security advisor during his second term, Stephen Hadley. Such a large group of advisors to presidents Bush and Obama familiar with the details of Iran's development of nuclear technology and weapons capabilities could give Republicans support to kill any agreement that falls short on inspections during Congressional Review. On this key factor where only vague assurances are made by the Iranian side- such as signing an International Atomic Agency convention giving inspectors broad rights to visit suspicious sites, followed by Ayatollah Khamanei ruling out military sites- the letter is specific. Inspections it says " must include military (including Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps), and other sensitive facilities. Iran must not be able to deny or delay timely access to any site anywhere in the country." Inspections work rigorously done is set as a precondition before any significant relief from economic sanctions on Iran....