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David Reilly points out that using the regulatory figures JP Morgan had exposure to Italy of $87.5 billion, to Spain of $57.5 billion, and an exposure of $390 billion for France, Germany and the Netherlands. This is as of Dec. 2011. This is higher than the netted figures given out by the bank. In his chairman's letter Dimon showed bank exposure to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain of about $15 billion with potential loss in a bad situation of $3 billion. This is if portfolio hedges work. If for some reason they did not work as anticipated, the losses could be much higher.

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U.S. population growth from July 2012 to July 2013 was 0.72% with 2.25 million people added. The population stands at 316.1 million in July 2013, and is now in Dec 2013 at 317.3 million, according to Census Bureau. U.S. populaion growth has ranged from 1.8% in the 1950's to 1.2% in the 1990's. Lower immigration since the 2008 recession, low fertility, lower movement to more prosperous states, has lowered the growth rate. The South and West show population growing at about 1% in 2013, the Northeast and Midwest at closer to 0.3%. California has 38 million people, Texas 26.5 million, New York 19.7 million, Florida 19.6 million.

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Core consumer price index was up 1.3% in December 2013 from the prior year, according to government information. For 2013 the index was up 0.4%, the first increase in 5 years. The Bank of Japan's target is 2% inflation. The ratio of available jobs to applicants increased to 1.03 showing 103 jobs for every 100 job seekers- the first surplus of available jobs since 2007. The jobless rate declined to 3.7% in Dec. 2013, down from 4% in Nov. 2013. A planned sales tax increase to 8% from 5% to tackle the high government debt level goes into effect in April 2014, which is expected to reduce consumer spending.

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The G-20 statement for the meeting in Washington D.C. in April 2013, says: "Japan's recent policy actions are intended to stop deflation and support domestic demand." Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's response was that this will help the BOJ implement its monetary expansion program in an orderly way. Kuroda said: "Now that we have obtained the support of the international community, we will be able to implement our program with confidence." These moves come with a call for Europe to proceed with banking union and giving more time for austerity programs to reduce the slowdown in Europe. This happens as fears emerged of a global slowdown in April 2013.

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How virus containment failed at its origin in Wuhan with politics overriding the agency setup to tackle pandemics. Dr George Gao an Oxford trained virologist was in charge of China's agency for pandemic disease control. This story shows how his effort ran in to problems from authorites in the province and other problems. Scientists in U.S. and Britain and in China say had the effort to control the virus started 3 weeks earlier by December 1, 95% fewer cases would have happened in China. With additional steps to control pandemic spread such as air and rail, auto travel restrictions this also means the virus could have been contained within China with only a limited and better controlled spread overseas. The bungled response in China shown here affected first China, then the whole world.

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The NYT says many of India's largest and most profitable companies are "relative models of probity," and several ranking among the world's best governed companies including companies in the software and pharmaceutical sectors. Large parts of the Indian economy have little appetite for the risk taken on by the Adani Group and are run on a financially conservative basis. Infrastructure is unique for this kind of risk taking because of decades of neglect of Indian infrastructure during the 1995-2015 period, when China was rapidly building infrastructure with large investments and India fell behind. It is that catchup mode that induced Adani Group's aggressive efforts taking on debt for outsize goals that it was willing to adopt for coal, solar and port logistics. As a result the Indian economy with companies such as Infosys and Dr. Reddy's Labs says the NYT, is largely not affected by the problems of the Adani group's debt structure.    ...

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States with zero tolerance laws for marijuana use are Arizona, Utah, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Washington, Montana, Nevada,  Illinois and Ohio also restrict driving using marijuana. About 15 million people reported using marijuana in 2019 in the US, according to AAA.  And 15% of the US population uses marijuana up from 7% 10 years earlier, according to Gallup. Highway Safety officials at the state level say as lot of attention was paid into revenue coming to the state and not enough to highway safety for the legalization of marijuana use. 24 states legalized recreational use of marijuana, 39 states allowed medical use. States that legalized recreational use in the western US - Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Alaska, Hawaii. In the Midwestern US- Illinois, Michigan. In the Southern US  Missouri and Florida, Maryland. In the northeast, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland Washington DC,     ...

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A study by Dr. McCormick of the Harvard Medical School and professors at the City University of New York School of Public Health at Hunter College, shows that the anticipated savings from conversion to medical records may not materialize to the extent expected. This study of data from 1100 doctors of 28,000 patient visits shows that with access to digital records doctors actually increased the number of tests ordered- from 12.9% of visits without digital records to 18% of visits with digital records. For more advanced tests such as MRI and CT scan the rate was 70% higher. Dr. McCormick says this may be because the new digital technology may have made it easier to order tests.

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Pfizer and Moderna's plans to make mRNA vaccines in Africa, Asia or Latin America may take much longer than 2022. The solution to producing an mRNA vaccine in Asia that could be mass manufactured and distributed throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America is now at hand. Gennova based in India, is partnering with Seattle startup HDT Bio to attack the problem of temperature and scalability in manufacturing for a mRNA vaccine that acts as a global solution using India's manufacturing capabilities. Dr Singh who founded Gennova, says- "We wanted to solve the problem of the scalability issue, and the temperature issue. If we can solve these problems, we are building a solution not just for India, but also a global solution." Gennova received seed funding from the Indian government. Other companies in Brazil and South Africa lack the manufacturing capabilities or financing needed that exist in India. The Indian government has achieved an initial goal of one billion vaccinated in just 6 months. The next step for India in its health infrastructure buildup is a mRNA vaccine that is an improvement over Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that can be stored easily, adapted for variants, and manufactured in large quantity as a global solution. ...

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The success of a rainwater harvesting system in Mexico City which gets more rain than London, England. The rainwater harvesting system was setup by Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist. It provides 100,000 rainwater harvesting units in two districts in the city. It fills a 2500 lite collection tank that can be used for bathing, laundry, and washing easing the strain on the water grid. This system is cheaper and more efficient.

Water supply in Mexico City remains mismanaged. Most water gets pumped from dams 125 miles away, with 40% lost through leaks in pipes and containers. 

Today only 2% of water gets harvested when it could be 8-10% if new methods are adopted and governments take on the task. It may not be available in the dry season but in places where rainfall is plentiful it can be a vital resource.

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The constructive contribution made by the G-20 meetings of leaders towards building agreement on economic and other policies for peace and progress in the global economy. The meetings were especially useful for coordinating policy and addressing issues arising in the global economy after the 2008 financial crisis. Here Li Baodong, China's vice minister for international organizations and conferences, international economic affairs, describes the path ahead: IMF reforms implementation, better coordination of macroeconomic policies, pursuing the anti-protectionist and free trade policies with further support to the WTO and ministerial MC9 meeting in Bali in Dec. 2013, and infrastructure financing proposals for developing countries on the agenda at the St Petersburg, Russia, G-2- meeting in Sept. 2013. Baodong says the mechanism called the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth as part of the G-20 meetings is a major achievement. Each G-20 economy submits it macroeconomic policy plan for a Mutual Assessment Process under this arrangement. The progress from the Bretton Woods financial architecture to the new arrangement- from the G-6 to the G-20 to include developing countries from India to Mexico and Brazil- is another major achievement, not fully recognized by the public, says Baodong. Interestingly Baodong makes particular mention to global rebalancing, rather than pushing what he calls the impossible task of increasing demand to get growth. This is a realization coming to China's economic policymakers under the new Jinping-Keqiang administration after the overly aggressive effort to stimulate demand in the 2009-2011 Stimulus, and the ensuing financial problems in the banking and credit system. It is indicative of the policy shift and its implementation underway in China in 2013-2015....

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Dr. Zhong Nanshan, China's leading epidemiologist and head of the Guangzhou Institute for Respiratory Health, talks to doctors in the U.S. at Temple University Hospital and Harvard University, about China's experience tackling the coronavirus. Other collaboration is happening between John Hopkins doctors and 80 other American doctors with Wang Jian-an president of the Second Affiliated Hospital at Zhejiang University. This hospital in China sent about 170 medical workers to Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus in China.  Three areas of interest for American doctors are the clinical course of the virus, what treatments work and what does not work, treating pregnant infected women, and preventing infections among medical workers.

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Fitch Ratings downgrades Brazil's bonds to double-B-plus in Dec. 2015, a junk rating from an investment grade rating. The yield on Brazil's 10 year benchmark dollar denominated bond increased to 6.97% from 6.7%. Other emerging markets such as Turkey and South Africa now expect ratings downgrades in 2016 as the U.S. Fed raises interest rates. Standard & Poors downgraded Brazil's sovereign debt to junk status in September 2015. GDP in Brazil declined 4.5% in the third quarter of 2015 from a year earlier. Brazil's currency, the real, declined by 32% in 2015, making it harder for companies that borrowed in dollars to pay off debts. President Dilma Rousseff is facing impeachment proceedings following a corruption scandal at Petrobras.

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The situation in the U.S. for unemployment by state in Dec. 2011 as seen through statistics from the Labor Department. Losses in jobs at the local government level offset gains in Georgia in the private sector. Texas, Louisiana, Okalahoma, oil producing states have done well. States which suffered from the housing crisis such Florida, Arizona and Nevada, see unemployment lower than at the peak of the housing crisis. Michigan's unemployment rate is lower with the recovery in the automobile industry. North Dakota and Alaska, other oil producing states show jobs growth. For the U.S. private sector employment is up 2.8% since the low point, but job losses in local and federal governmet lead to an overall gain of 1.9%.

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Reliance Power's total capacity is expected to reach 5000 megawatts by Dec. 2012. The company plans to install total capacity of 35,000 MW. It is building a 3,960 MW thermal project at Tilaiya in Jharkhand state, eastern India. Another plant of the same capacity is being built at Chitrangi in Madhya Pradesh, central India. About 75% of the funding will be through debt. Relince is in talks with U.S. and Chinese banks to fund the $8.35 billion for these 2 projects. Loans agreements are in place for $5 billion from the Export-Import Bank in the U.S. and $12 billion from Chinese banks, funding that is coming as part of buying equipment from the U.S. and China.

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A bill requiring that women make up 30% of nonexecutive supervisory board members of 100 companies by 2016 is likely to pass in the German parliament in Dec. 2014. Women make up 22% of the supervisory board of 30 companies on the DAX. The new bill requires that companies have to leave the positions unfilled if they cannot find women. France requires 20% of nonexecutive director positions go to women, which goes up to 40% in 2017. Women make up 29.7% of the boards of the 40 companies in France's CAC 40 index, which is up from 12.3% in 2011. The European Union has set a goal of 40% women on boards by 2020.

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Bezos talks about his acquisition of the Washington Post in conversation at the Business Insider Ignition conference, Dec. 2014. He says he was initially skeptical about the acquisition as he knows little about the newspaper industry. His decision was based on his expertise in internet related technologies and the potential of bringing the newspaper into the digital age. One of the steps taken is to introduce a free Washington Post app for the Amazon Kindle, which will cost $1 following a trial period. He is working closely with Shailesh Prakash, the Post's head of technology. Bezos sees The Post newspaper not just as a local paper, but a paper with national and global reach using the internet for access.

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The IMF's Martin Cerisola, who headed a delegation to Iran on Jan. 25- Feb 8, 2014, has put out a report on the country's economy saying serious risks lie ahead. The inflation rate fell from 45% annualized rate in July 2013 to about 30% in Dec 2013, offering a short respite with a slight easing of the sanctions regime, but Cerisola says Iran remains in serious danger of "external shocks," that could affect Iran's currency, the rial. Cerisola says in his report that the reduced subsidies for fuel and food, poorly funded social programs, and the "marked deterioration in the external environment stemming from the intensification of trade and financial sanctions, have weakened the economy."

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A World Food Program report says India is home to over a fourth of the hungry people in the world, about 230 million people. Purnima Menon of the Food Policy Research Institute in Washington D.C., says India ranks below two dozen sub-Saharan countries on a Global Hunger Index. It ranks Madhya Pradesh, a state in central India, as somewhere between Chad and Ethiopia. And serious hunger and malnutrion persists in states that have done better in economic growth, like Gujarat and Maharashtra. The number of children suffering from malnutrition in 2009 is in the range of 42.5% in India compared to about 7% in China, according to figures cited by Rieff.

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An account of the meetings between Speaker Boehner and president Obama in the fiscal cliff negotiations. The WSJ pieced together the flow of the negotiations based on interviews with aides and lawmakers. There is little to show the two sides closer than before the election. If anything the WSJ report concludes the discussions this time left both sides further apart, and the lack of trust in the relations between Republicans and president Obama has worsened. Speaker Boehner asks Obama at one meeting what he gets in return for offering $800 billion in revenues and Obama tells him he gets nothing. At another meeting Obama tells Boehner he is asking Obama to accept Mitt Romney's tax plan and sees no reason to do that. Obama's first offer is for $1.6 trillon in new revenue over 10 years, a permanent increase in the debt ceiling and $400 billion in spending cuts. The Republicans find 25 cents of spending cuts for every dollar in tax increases as simply unacceptable and hold out for $1 in cuts for $1 in new tax revenues. Obama drops down to $1.2 trillion in new revenues and Boehner asks for $100 billion in additional spending cuts. Boehner drops a demand for raising the Medicare eligibility age. Obama raises the tax figure for the Bush tax increases to incomes over $400,000, Boehner proposes $1 million. But no level of trust has been gained in the negotiations. And no rapport established, as at one point Boehner tells Obama the two can just stare at each other or he Boehner could come back. Boehner then proposes to pass Plan B in the House for Bush tax cuts on incomes over $1 million. At that point the president feels the Republicans are not negotiating in good faith and some Republican Congressman in the House say they would not support Plan B. The distrust on all sides is worse than before. In the weeks leading to this in Dec. 2012 a review of oped pages show Democrats and Republicans saying a bad agreement- meaning too much in spending cuts for Democrats and too much in tax increases for Republicans- was worse than the fiscal cliff of automatic cuts, which could be addressed in other ways....

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Questions raised about Dr Pazdur's decisions at FDA for anemia drugs made by Amgen and Johnson and Johnson. Dr Pazdur is head of the FDA office that regulates oncology drugs, all cancer drugs. Dr Pazdur's review process and decision shows how reviewers are human and their own experience helps determine what they see prominently. His experience with his father who suffered severely from the side effects of steroid drugs would make him aware of the the other effects of drugs. He is an oncologist, his wife is an oncology nurse, and some relatives have died of cancer, so he has lived with cancer patients. It appears from close associates that he like open communication and hears all sides but makes the final decision himself. He had an experience with a drug for lung cancer Iressa made by Astra -Zeneca, which the FDA approved based on testimonials, but not enough statistical evidence, which later failed and approval had to be withdrawn. This may have made him more inclined to look for strong results and statistical evidence before concluding on the safety and effectivenes of a drug. An approach evident with Amgen's anemia drug. It also appears that the FDA is not clear on whether the drug's effectiveness is to be judged by what result, is it whether it prolongs life only that counts, or whether the effectiveness in relieving significantly the symptoms of a patient even if life is not prolonged. There is the controversy surrounding the FDA's rejection of a drug by Genta Inc Genasense that relieved patient symptoms for leukemia but did not prolong their life. These and other questions continue to give sleepless nights to people at the FDA and outside as the drug review process faces difficult balancing act between what to give importance and what direction to take with a drug in patient's interests. In Dr Pazdur's case this is made more difficult as he thinks every day of his father who died in 1979 and suffered from the side effects of steroid drugs, went blind when Dr Pazdur was only a teen, and had pulmonary fibrosis and diabetes. He is described by doctors who trained under him as gentle but did meet a patient's eyes and tell him that he had to come to terms with his disease. ...

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Credit Agricole says 4th quarter 2011 losses will be 3.07 billion euros. It is one of three French banks hit hard by the eurozone financial crisis, especially the crisis in Greece, because of investments in Greece. Conditions at the bank reflect the overall restructuring process underway at French banks, as part of an overall restructuring in the eurozone financial crisis. The delaying of aggressive action in reducing Greece's debt to a manageable level by the EU and the ECB, was part of an effort to give French and other European banks time to absorb losses on investments in Greece. Credit Agricole has now increased its provision for losses from Greece to 74% from 60% of nominal value. It has also increased the cover rate for bad loans at Emporiki Bank Greece to 54%. Emporiki was acquired in 2006, only 2 years before the financial crisis. Its total losses in Greece for 2011 add up to 2.4 billion euros, according to the bank. Credit Agricole also made writedowns on its stake in Spain's Bankinter SA for 617 million euros and Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo S/A by 364 million euros. Overall debt reduction planned for the 18 months ending in Dec 2012 is for 50 billion euros, to reduce financing needs and improve capital buffers. The bank's core Tier 1 ratio of good quality capital including equity and retained profit is at 8.6% as of Dec 2011. Job cuts of 2,350 are planned for global operations, including 1,750 at the corporate investment bank, and dscontinuing of equity derivatives and commodities trading. Shares of Credit Agricole lost about half their value in the last 12 months. It is 55% owned by 39 French cooperative regional banks, and it owns 25% of these banks....

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There are differences between the governors of 10 worst hit states and the president of the U.S. on when to reopen the economy. The seven on the East Coast including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and three on the West Coast including California and Washington, all but one have Democrat governors and want to wait beyond May 1, till it is believed to be safe to reopen.190,000 of the 592,000 infected cases and over 10,000 of 25,000 cases of deaths are from New York alone. This is as though a third of the problem is in one state. The feeling in New York is that it should be the last to reopen, other states can go first in the middle of the country. The position in the U.S. Constitution is for states to maintain public order and safety. This was the basis of the president's position to work with the governors and continues to be the case, though there is pressure from economic advisers to the president to reopen earlier balanced by the opinion of health experts around the president.  Some states are taking action to reopen because the virus has not severely affected these states. President Trump says it is for governors to decide what is best for each state in consultation with the federal government. The U.S. government would step in if a state is taking risky action with the coronavirus. On the issue of whether the president could have acted quickly in February following his decision to stop flights from China and set up quarantines in January, the BBC has this to say. Dr. Fauci, the president's respected health expert was one of many public officials who did not see the magnitude of the crisis evolving with lack of good information from China. BBC North America Editor Jon Sopel cites Dr. Fauci's comments on February 13- that the coronavirus danger is "just miniscule" compared with the "real and present danger" of flu. As it happened the president acted alone in his sense of the danger from the outbreak in China through incoming flights and not relying on others. Here is what the situation of each country on reopening is- India -  has extended the lockdown to May 3. France - has extended the lockdown till May 11. U.S. - has extended the lockdown to May 1. States are taking the responsibility. UK - continues lockdown restrictions till May. The French president Macron had a simple answer to the question " when will we be able to get back to a normal, prior life?" Macron said "Quite frankly, humbly, I have no definitive answer to that." Some nurseries and schools will reopen May 11. Not restaurants, hotels, museums and theaters. By May 11 France will be able to test and quarantine anyone with symptoms and general public masks will be available to all. This is what Dr. Fauci in the U.S. also wants to see before being able to reopen, that testing and tracing, isolating, procedures be efficient and reliable. ...

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Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms gets words of praise for her short 4 minute but effective speech finding just the right words to protesters on the night of May 29. By 9.30 pm the protests became violent.  She is a first term Democrat mayor and had so much at stake in keeping the city of Martin Luther King peaceful that night. She went up to police headquarters and setup a press conference. Everything had to be done right. So she just said it the way she read the situation, her gut sense combined with self discipline and the long view- and said it directly addressing the issues head on- alway keeping the goal in mind of restoring peaceful protest in the spirit of the black leader in Atlanta of a generation ago alive for future generations.  Her directness and poise showed- "You're not going to outconcern me and outcare about where we are in America. I wear this each and every day. I pray over my children each and every day." Washington D.C Mayor, Muriel Bowser, also a first term Democratic mayor, showed poise and directness, a sense of calm amid the storm, as she talked to reporters at a press conference. Her situation being critical as this was in the nation's capital city, only blocks away from the White House. She had a plaza in the city painted yellow and named for black people facing daily struggles in their lives to live their aspirations in society, on June 4. A quiet yet lasting statement. ...