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The effort to revive India-U.S. relations after the visa episode and the landslide win by Narendra Modi in India's 2014 parliamentary elections.

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New hurdle for the banks. Floating rate notes which the banks use come due in over the next year or so beginning in September and banks will have to pay off at least $787 billion in floating rate notes and other medium term obligations by the end of 2009 according to analyst at JP Morgan Chase Alex Roever. As banks scramble for funds to pay off these notes they be less willing to make new loans worsening the credit crunch in the USA and Europe.

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A sign that investors are moving too quickly is the manner in which investors are putting money in emerging markets. THe sovereign credits of Argentina, Ecuador, Pakistan and Ukraine have risen by 100% to date on teh benchmark JP Morgan's Energing Markets BOnd Index Global. Gavin of Barclays Capital says the odds that current level rise to bubble levels are very high. Emerging market funds have absorbed more than $40 billion so far this year according to EPFR GLobal fund tracker, reversing the outflows during the crisis in early 2009.

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Forecasts from French bank BNP Paribas show Britain's national output or GDP is expected to grow 5.4 percent in 2022, faster than economic growth in China of 5.3%. China's growth is slowing sharply because the manufacturing sector is facing energy shortages, and the construction sector is faced with decades of buildup of debt that cannot be paid.

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Merrill Lynch's Linenberg says the expectation of earnings for AMR is at $1.15 per share for 2006. JP Morgan's Baler's earnings per share estimate of $3.00 per share, and Standard and Poors stable outook for AMR Bonds substantially support evidence of turnaround in profits at American Airlines. American's business model factors in $65 per barrel oil.

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India's robust debate as a democracy is of an astonishing size and diversity of opinion. The debate did not diminish when there was one federal party in many states under Indira Gandhi (1970's). It actually increased many times during this period compared to the period under Jawaharlal Nehru (1950's) taking the example of one state Gujarat as an example of what was going on in 18 states of that time. Newspapers in Gujarati such as Jansatta, Gujarat Samachar and others carried on a vigorous debate with opposing points of view to the Indira Gandhi government at the state and federal level of the 1970's. Most people in places like New York and London fail to understand or see the local language newspapers or are totally unaware of their existence, and the debate carried on in their pages. So that they falsely assume what a small group of English language newspapers tell them about the vigor of Indian democratic debate that is truly unmatched anywhere in the world. And in terms of its 22 languages in one nation one could say in the entire history of the world. Swapan Dasgupta in the Times of India gives the staggering number of publications today in 2023- 144,520 publications reaching 386 million people every day. And 392 television news channels . All in 22 languages. To ignore the local languages as if they did not exist is to ignore India as if a billion people did not exist. Or as it is for China to say that everything written in Chinese papers and Chinese news channels did not exist. Dasgupta also points out that one should take Mr. Modi and the BJP out of this as at the national level its a 10 year old phenomenon. Look back from 2010 for the sixty years from 1950 to 2010 and India was as badly misconceived, misrepresented, and misperceived back then. India he says fell from 105th place in Freedom House rankings in 2006 to 140th place in 2013. Mr. Modi only enters the picture after that. Dasgupta points out the small sample for these ratings 150 respondents and the methodology having missed much if not everything that is needed in a robust democratic debate. There is another aspect which is present which is prominent in New York and London and Washington D.C. and that is that non-alignment is not popular.  One has to see the way Adlai Stevenson running against Eisenhower twice in the 1950's very warmly received Jawaharlal Nehru on his visit to the US and compare it with the way the US perceived India under John Foster Dulles after Dwight Eisenhower was elected in 1952 to understand this aspect of American perception. Dulles was facing the Soviet Union and the British under Churchill then Macmillan had an equal disdain for Nehru's non alignment and tilt towards the Soviet Union. These root perceptions did not change with the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, and continued into the 1970's when Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi was prime minister and continued non alignment.  India's political alignment after the pandemic is anything but non-aligned. It thinks, acts and lives in a way that is similar to the people of the US and Europe. Not even because it chooses to but because of what it is, coming from being part of its ancient path of Vedanta and Buddhist civilization that is the core Asian experience. It also needs to bring 400 million out of poverty and build the next phase of industrialization and modernization that requires fossil fuels in large quantities at lower prices to sustain its rapid growth. Some of it comes from Russia purely as an economic decision during the pandemic. The Biden administration fully supports India in this task of rapidly growth to meet the aspirations of a mostly young population- sourcing fossil fuels from whichever source that makes sense. To become a key part of the US new supply chain that reverses the overconcentration of the supply chain in China. It can only be said then that Freedom House has the peculiar affliction left behind from the John Foster Dulles period, combined with a bit of arrogance in failing to grasp the central fact of India which is its 22 languages forging one nation- a task nowhere seen in the history of the world. ...

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Telefonica offers part of its dividend in shares to conserve cash and considers IPO listings for operations in Germany and Latin America. Earnings decline by 54% in the first quarter of 2012. Shares have lost over 30% in 2012. Net debt is 57 billion euros, larger than its market capitalization and forecast at 2.7 times Ebitda. JP Morgan estimates show that sale of call center Atento for 1 billion euros, and stakes in in China Unicom and O2 in the Czech Republic could bring an additional 6 billion euros, which would bring debt down to 2 times Ebitda.

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Venezuela has heavy oil in the Orinoco basin, and 7 blocks there are up for bidding which could generate 1 million barrels aday of synthetic oil. The terms are that Petroleos de Venezuela would get 60% share ad operational control but not put up any money. In addition the government will take a 33% royalty and a windfall tax. State owned oil companies in China, India and Russia, Perobras, BP, Chevron, Shell and Total have expressed interest. Political risk is taken into account but some countries are on friendly terms with Venezuela. Main concern is the recession and fall in price of oil.

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The analyst is a Ms Chiesii who was arrested with her boss Mr Kurland. Mr Kurland was chief executive of New Castle Partners, which was part of Bear Stearns before it was spun off by JP Morgan Chase. Ms Chiesi was particularly aggressive about getting tips about Akamai Technologies and AMD and loves to use four letter words. In one conversation with Kurland she says- "Unless you were on the phone with the AMD executive and had an IBM executive at your house last night, who the f- would be buying it honestly?" Kurland started at Bear Stearns in 1991, Chiesi in 1997.

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Since January 2, 2009 consumer goods companies, like Procter and Gamble and 3M, are also playing a part in the decline of the Dow Jones Average. Only Chase JP Morgan plays a part in the decline of the Dow among financial stocks, because the other financial stocks have fallen so far that their decline makes little difference. See the other link about consumers waiting for paychecks to make sizable consumer products purchases, which is also not a good sign. What worries analysts is that we are in the beginning of a consumer goods recession which has a long way to play out.

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The warm and hugely enthusiastic welcome given to India's newly elected prime minister Modi in New York in September 2014