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Utility companies are using weather forecasting to better pinpoint output of wind and solar farms and reduce inaccuracy fees. This helps smooth out fluctuations the main problem in solar and wind renewable energy.

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From 2007 to 2022 US electricity demand flattened with new energy efficient technologies. It is now poised to increase from 2022 to 2035 and the process is happening  with approval of new natural gas plants and new data centers, new manufacturing plants needing large amounts of renewable energy. This say Plumer and Popovich in NYT could very well upset president Biden's plans to get 100% of energy from renewables by 2035 and cut greenhouse gas emissions by half to tackle climate change. Utilities are moving ahead with putting up new natural gas plants, and new data centers are needed for the shift to remote work since 2020, electric automobile and chip making plants are coming up at a rapid pace. Without a sustained effort the climate change action needed may not take place with the long lead times to bring renewable solar, wind and other energy and put it in place for transmission. This report looks at the data centers coming up in Virginia and the EV manufacturing plants in Georgia as examples for the new demand and how it could upset plans for climate change action. ...

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Wind energy is great but it puts "tight margins" on Britian's energy grid as well as power grids in other countries. A huge expansion of wind farms as in Britain brings renewable energy, but low wind output could create generator shortages.

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Labour's Keir Starmer wants to make Britain the first nation to have a zero emissions power system. His plan put forward in September 2022 would double onshore wind, triple solar energy, and quadruple offshore energy production by 2030. It would create half a million jobs, reindustrialize Britain and cut electricity bills by hundreds of pounds, says this report in The Guardian.This is Labour's answer to the Tories faltering energy plans. The Breakthrough report on achieving COP26 goals of the IEA and IRENA, international renewable energy agencies, shows the opportunity to create 85 million additional jobs by 2030, compared to 2019. Many world leaders including president Biden and Starmer, Germany's Habeck, and India's Modi are setting aggressive goals for renewable energy.

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After energy shortages in 2021 the Chinese government decided to increase coal power projects. In 2023 these coal power projects are increasingly seen as backup sources of power with rapid increases in the production of renewable solar, wind and nuclear energy. China has nearly reached the point where half its energy is coming from renewable energy sources. Coal power companies are not profitable compared to renewable power companies. The result is that China's total emissions of carbon are declined in 2022 by 1.5%. China's power demand is growing by 6% each year, yet more of the increase in demand is being met through renewable energy expansion with coal being set as a backup source. Soon many of the power projects started after 2021 may be cancelled because they are losing money.

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Across Europe the big energy push is in solar. The goal is to triple the size of solar by 2030 in just 8 years. Germany already gets 17% of its energy from solar. It is considered better and more acceptable to people and landscapes than wind turbines. This WSJ report looks at how this will be done and what hurdles have to be overcome. By 2030 45% of the total energy use in Europe has to come from renewable energy.

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The rapidly changing situation in energy is shown by the $15 billion German government rescue of Uniper, which contains the legacy fossil fuel assets of Germany's E.ON electricity maker. The war in Ukraine has made energy security a priority, leaving fossil fuel assets at risk of getting stranded. This is what happened at Uniper as Germany moves quickly to develop renewable sources to replace Russian fossil fuels. Clean energy investment is increasing rapidly as many green energy options are cost effective. Two thirds of electricity is generated in countries where it is cheaper to build new solar or onshore wind facilities than to run existing gas or coal powered facilities. Offshore wind with newer technologies will soon be cheaper also. Higher fuel and emissions prices, the cost of running older facilities in extreme weather, also increase risk of stranded assets.   To understand how quickly the situation is changing and can lead to stranded assets - solar energy is now half the cost of energy from coal or natural gas at today's prices as shown in the graphs in this WSJ article. Large investment in research and new technology will only decrease the cost of solar and wind energy to 2025 and 2030, increasing the investments in renewable energy and speeding up the curve for transition to renewable sources, with the added impetus of government support to achieve COP26 targets. ...

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Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel said the government will follow the recommendations of the government appointed Ethics Comission to close eight nuclear reactors immediately, and close most of the other reactors by 2021. Three plants may be kept online into 2022 for reserve power. About 70% of the German public by some estimates opposes nuclear power. Nuclear energy provides 23% of German energy supplies, and coal fired plants 42.4%. In 2002 a coalition government of Social Democrats and the Green party made a decision to phase out nuclear energy. Already Germany has the highest targets of any country in the world for alternative energy. German renewable energy targets are for the country to generate 80% of energy supply from sources such as wind, solar and other renewable energy by 2050. Currently Germany produces 16.9% of electricity consumption through renewable energy. And Germany has a thriving energy industry with solar energy companies SolarWorld AG, solar cellmaker Q-Cells SE and wind turbine maker Nordex. Germany sees the challenge as both reducing the risks of nuclear energy and an opportunity to become the world leader in renewable energy with growing markets overseas. Merkel vioced this by saying - "This path sets a great challenge for Germany, but we can be the first industrial country to make the transition ino an age of highly efficient and renewable energy." ...

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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Greece generates about two thirds of its energy from solar and wind. It is also becoming a hub for gas pipelines from floating terminals through Greece to supply central and eastern Europe. About 1.5 trillion dollars are going to be invested in the next few years on building pipelines and the infrastructure for gas as a transition fuel before renewable energy becomes the dominant fuel.

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The European Union is making good use of the crisis in Ukraine to ramp up its shift to renewable energy. This WSJ report shows charts of where the EU is focusing its efforts from conservation, heat pumps, hydrogen, to wind and solar. Wind and solar show massive increases by 2030. By 2030 the European Union plans to increase wind and solar energy from 20 billion cubic metres to 170 billion cubic metres according to estimates from The European Commission shown in this graph by WSJ.

By the end of 2022 two thirds of Russian natural gas imports to the EU will have been replaced and by 2030 all of such imports will be replaced. 

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Why for some countries base load coal based energy capacity becomes essential with lack of energy storage options. India has realized that without storage simply adding more renewable capacity will pose problems for grid managers. India will add 60 gigawatts of fresh coal powered base load capacity in addition to 21 gigawatts under construction to tackle the problem of intermittency. India now has 40% of installed energy capacity from non fossil sources, rising from 25% in 2013, with solar and wind making up 30%.

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Strategic siting in renewable rich areas (Dallas center the largest is in renewable rich area) and fair cost allocation to not burden small businesses and households are major issues in Data Center building. Data centers for AI -rows and rows of servers 5000 in hyperscale data centers- used 4% of the US total electricity use in 2024. This is growing rapidly. By 2030 this is expected to grow by more than double, by 133%. About 60% of this to power the servers and 30% for cooling the servers. About a third of these servers are located in Virginia, Texas and California. How will this affect Cost of Living concerns, affect electricity prices? Carnegie Mellon working with North Carolina State University did the modeling on the energy and emissions implications of data center buildup in the US in their Open Outlook Initiative. A 8% annual increase in electricity prices is expected on average and as high as 25% in Virginia by 2030.  Total of about 40% increase over 5 years. Between 2014 and 2024 10 year period average cost for a home electricity use went up 25% from $114 a month to $142. This would now go up by 40% to about $200 by 2030 in just 5 years significantly impacting cost of living in the US. In which states will it strain electricity grids? In 2023 data centers consumed 26% of the total electricity supply in Virginia. In North Dakota 15%, Nebraska 12%, Iowa 11%, Oregon 11% according to Electric Power Research Institute. What are the energy types used? Natural gas is used for 40% of the data center electricity, wind and solar 25%, nuclear 20% and coal 15%.   ...

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Plans of the incoming administration of president Lopez Obrador to increase renewable energy from wind, solar and other sources, in Mexico. Mexico's potential is for 8 times the current levels for wind energy and 75 times current levels for solar. Solar energy has not received much attention as Mexico increased reliance on coal and oil for energy. Mexico's supply of renewable energy is only 25% of total installed power capacity compared to 50% for other countries in Latin America.

The Obrador administration plans to cut Mexico's emissions by 6.8% a year. Solar energy in particular has high potential in Mexico.

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WSJ's Kate Linebaugh talks to Pedro Pizzaro CEO of Edison electric utility company in California on the impact of president Biden's $369 Climate bill on California's energy needs. He describes what his company is doing today with the wild fires, and how the Biden bill will help the transition to renewables in a state that requires 100% renewables by 2045. His company Edison is at 35% renewables today. By 2045 energy use will increase by about 60% in California and he is looking ahead to that future.

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A 1000 mile windswept coastline and 300 days of sunshine make the southern African nation of Namibia an attractive location for green hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen is produced using wind and solar energy. There is a 50 fold increase in green hydrogen projects in just the last 12 months globally. The costly technology needs many projects to get to lower costs through technological advances. Germany is doing a pilot project in Luderitz, Namibia. Luderitz will need a deep water project to ship the fuel out.   Renewable wind and solar energy is used to distil the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to the currently used method to maky hydrogen from fossil fuels, known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from fossil fuels are captured. Namibia is chosen as its natural advantages could bring the costs down faster. Other locations being adopted are Morocco, Australia, and Chile. The two sites in Namibia had bids from Africa's Sasol, Australia's Fortescu, Germany's Enertrag and Hyphen Hydrogen.  Hyphen Hydrogen won the bid for the two sites. It says the $9.4 billion project is targeting 300,000 metric tons of green hydrogen production a year from 5 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. "Now all of a sudden the desert has become valuable," says Namibia's finance minister Mr. Shiimi. Additional asset for Namibia is that it ranks highest after Cape Verde in Africa for transparency, creating ease of doing business. It is ranked 57 in Transparency International rank of transparency for countries in 2020. China is 78, India 86 in rank. Namibia is putting up $45 million for the feasibility study on the project with the sesert scrub land an hour from Luderitz, once a diamond mining town on a rocky Atlantic coastline in 1900. Two sites are located in the area each 675 square miles. South Africa is severely short of energy supplies and a pipeline is being considered to take the Namibian hydrogen to South Africa. The African region is expanding in renewable energy. Lake Turkana Wind Power Project in Kenya provides 17% of installed electricity capacity in Kenya with 365 wind turbines.     ...

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How will the rise of renewables solar, wind and hydropower, nuclear change the demand and supply of oil and gas by 2030? How will this affect producers such as Russia, Saudis/UAE, and the US? And how will it affect China and India and the US? This question is answered by the new IEA forecast model that shows the demand at 105 million barrels a day in 2030, and supply at 113 million barrels a day, showing that renewable will have increased by 2030 to produce an oversupply of oil and gas. After 2031 this gap will widen and grow so that oil and gas prices will drop. This will accelerate the growth of India and China. Indian prime minister Modi tells people in towns across the country that the government will help people to put solar panels on homes so that instead of paying an oil and gas bill the energy generated from solar and added to the grid will give them a check every month to add to income.

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American companies, Google, Alcoa, Amazon and others are supporting the European Union's push towards reductions of carbon emissions for combating climate change. They are doing this by buying renewable energy through long term contracts that help reduce costs by about 10%. Google is doing this to support its data centers. Amazon is doing this with investments in wind farms in Ireland, and renewable projects in Spain, Sweden, and the UK.

The European Union plans to increase the proportion of renewable energy to 32% by 2030 at a cost of 260 billion euros.

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The Ethics Commission appointed by Chancellor Merkel following the nuclear disaster in Japan has recommended that the German government close all of its nuclear plants by 2021. Merkel said that Germany will end its dependence on nuclear energy and use nuclear as a bridge technology till other sorces are developed. Germany gets 22.6% of its electricity from nuclear energy, according to the Energy Ministry. It has 17 reactors, six of the boiling water type, a design used at Fukushima, and 11 using pressurized water. A former Environment minister, Klaus Topfer, heads the panel, with the other 22 panel members draw from the energy industry and nongovernmental organizations. While recommending closing the plants "to eliminate risks," the panel said it would also boost the German economy. It said "a withdrawal from nuclear power will spur growth, offer enormous technical, economic and social opportunities to position Germany even further as an exporter of sustainable products and services." Germany has already moved ahead in developing wind and solar energy sources, and is developing leading edge technologies and capabilities in the area of environment friendly alternative energies. Wind and solar energy and renewable sources already meet 16.5% of Germany's needs. Italy and Switzerland said they would not develop new reactors after the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown. Only Germany with its strong environmental consciousness across all parties is making a decisive break with nuclear energy. ...

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The US is requesting talks with China at the World Trade Organization with the objective of ending hundreds of millions of dollars of subsidies China gives to increase wind energy production. The wind power grants are being targeted because Chinese producers are required to use domestic parts to be eligible for the grant, which range from $6.7 million to $22.5 million. In the last 5 years foreign companies' share of the Chinese market has dropped from 79% to 13%, according to Goldman Sachs, with China's efforts to promote Chinese manufacturers. The renewable energy market in China is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020. And wind energy is the fastest growing sector. The effort comes after the US Steelworkers union alleged that China was using import substitution subsidies in violation of WTO rules, in a 5800 page petition. Steelworkers union president, Leo Gerard, says this doesn't address most of the billions of dollars of clean-tech subsidies and other support provided by the Chinese government. Gerard says the goal is not litigation but to put an end to these practices that are trade distorting, and act as a barrier to US exports to China....

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Deteriorating China Iran relations as the oil imports from Iran for China face US tariffs of 25% on China's exports to US, and US economic relations far more significant for the Chinese economy. China gets somwhere between 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels aday from Iran (80% of Iran's oil exports) into Shandong refiners at $10 below Brent crude prices. Another 400 mbd comes from Venezuela to China. This means $30 billion comes to Iran from oil sales to China at $59 a barrel, and $8 billion for Venezuela from oil sales to China. This has financed much of the bellicose policies towards the US in the western hemisphere and in the Gulf region. Iran's bellicose policies in the Middle East, its nuclear policy, are now seen by China as a distraction and  detract from good economic relations with the US. China $400 billion oil deal 25 year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 was signed under the Biden administration and China today faces a completely different situation in 2026. Even China's relations with Russia are not the same as the US builds better relations with Russia. A wind down of the Ukraine war would change the situation completely and ensure peace in Europe including Russia, as the US works with the EU to meet future challenges having learned from this experience in Europe (Ukraine dividing Europe) and in the Western hemisphere (drug/ migrant. trafficking). When historians write this chapter of the inflows of capital from advanced West to Arab countries and the Gulf region they will write about the huge contrast between China/India's efforts to modernize and these nations where much of that capital was wasted in wars and conflicts and in grandiose projects that made no material difference to the standard of living and quality of life of the vast number of ordinary people. Once the oil dividend is gone with fossil fuels replaced with renewable energy by 2035-2040 this opportunity to advance is lost for the Arab and Gulf region. ...

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Shares of Adani Enterprises went up by 3000% over 5 years putting valuations at extreme levels, says this report in the WSJ. This has created a disconnect between valuations and fundamentals say some experts. Hindenburg Research is a American forensic financial research firm started in 2017 by Nathan Anderson in New York City with 5 employees. It has issued a critical report of the Adani Group companies leading to a loss of 18.5% of its valuation. Adani Group companies make up 5% of the Bombay Stock Exchange and are a big part of its renewable energy effort even though the company had major interests in coal in Australia. Adani is trying to make the switch to renewable solar and wind energy and at the same time meet India's continuing need for coal because of its large population. The situation is similar to China and is poorly understood in the US and Europe, the effort to make large investments in renewable energy even as the company provides energy from fossil fuels. Adani set up the Mundra port in Gujarat helping Gujarat become energy sufficient and making it the most industrialized part of India. The London based Financial Times took a look at the Adani Group long before Hindenburg Research in the last 2 years and concluded that Adani Group companies have grown rapidly because India's effort for industrialization requires aggressive investment and risk taking which none of the other companies including India's Tata and Reliance Group are able to do in infrastructure and energy in the same way that Adani has. Reliance Group has invested in 4G and 5G and setup Jio to create low cost access to fast internet in India. When it comes to roads, airports, coal and renewable energy Adani has invested aggressively. This has created the perception that the Adani Group has benefited from its relations with the government. As the Financial Times put it Adani Group was the only private investor willing to take up the challenge of super sized goals needed for India's rapid growth. In this sense a forensic research company based on short selling is up against a company that has already faced skepticism about its rapid emergence as a renewable energy focused company shifting from fossil fuels, a transition neither Exxon or Chevron in the US have been able to do. ...

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A 850 megawatt solar project, the largest in the US outside of Las Vegas runs into opposition from environmentalists concerned about the effect on views and on tortoises other endangered species. The planned project on top of Mormon Mesa would put over 1 million solar panels 10 to 20 feet tall in the Nevada desert. Across the US 800 utility scale solar projects are under contract for generation of 70,000 megawatts of electricity, enough for 11 million homes, for more than Texas. Over half of this solar capacity is going into the southwestern US, with its sunshine and open land. For the first time the ardent advocates of renewable energy such as the Sierra Club are now opposing such projects. Solar made up one tenth of one percent of US energy in 2010, in 2020 it made up 4.5%. It is growing very rapidly because costs are going way down. Even before government subsidies solar is now below the cost of natural gas. Projects near Martha's Vineyard on the Massachusetts coast took 12 years to get sate and federal approval for wind energy. These battles are similar to ones being fought in Europe. The US is better positioned for solar because of vast desert spaces in the American southwest. President Joe Biden plans to use this advantage of solar and wind to get to 100% renewable energy by 2035. ...

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This is what our energy wars, our climate change wars are about in summary. Europe has moved faster than the US, India and China in cutting fossil fuels use over 20 years 2005 to 2025. Europe going from 1525 trillion watt hours to 792- cutting use by half. The US from 2900 to  2553 trillion watt hours just 12%. And China...China tripled its use. This has come at a price as the costs of renewables push up electricity prices beyond what homes and industry can support. UK electricity prices 80% higher than US and half of UK energy users plan to ration its use 2025. Half of electricity costs in UK come from cost and delivery, other half of costs from subsidies of renewables and other. In Germany high electricity costs are hobbling industry and reducing economic growth. Lower electricity prices make the US more attractive than Germany as a place to invest. Another way to look at it- US and Europe cut fossil fuel use by about 1100 trillion watt hours and China increased its use by 4200 trillion watt hours or 4 times what the US and Europe cut in 2024 over 2005. Adding India, Brazil this would be 5-6 times what the US and Europe saved in 2024 over 2005. The "And "strategy of combining reduction in fossil with building renewable capacity is working out compared to dumping fossil in one shove and going all out renewable. There is also the question of equity. China and India argue equity means we should be allowed to use some fossil with renewable for 2.5 billion people's needs. The other side of equity is the US saying the same as "no fossil period" strategy puts the needs of the large part of the population for lower costs of energy  pushed aside as wealthy classes say it is OK. Even when the savings through cuts and sacrifices in US and EU are cut down, cut down by 5-6 fold increase in China, India, Brazil alone. In this kind of climate change war it makes sense not to go with labels such as climate change denial DJT vs China climate change affirming, when China is diluting US-EU climate change entire twenty year savings of 2005-2024 by a factor of 4, 1100 trillion watt hours wiped out by China's 4200 trillion watt hours added. And India, Brazil taking this to a factor of 6. This is why a lot of the discussion with self-righteous indignation becomes less purposeful. What is clear is that every action to cut cost of living in US and EU for large parts of the people is an effort in the right direction as it frees up resources for the fight against climate change, the sense that we are all in the same boat and in the same struggle. The fight against cost of living is part of the long run struggle against climate change. ...

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How to get smaller supply chain companies with less than investment grade ratings to shift to renewable energy contracts that last 5-10 years when banks have strict lending criteria. Walmart has a solution working with Schneider Electric. Consider that companies are tackling emissions across their entire supply chain. For Walmart this means cutting one billion metric tons of emissions by 2030. Under Gigaton PPA Walmart suppliers can form a group to buy energy. So that Amy's Kitchen, Great lakes Cheese, and Levi Strauss collectively purchased a12 year renewable energy purchase agreement  from a wind farm in Kansas operated by Danish energy company Orsted. Energize is a similar program funded by drug companies Pfizer, Biogen and others for their supply chain and delivered by Schneider Electric. Consider that for Microsoft's 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, 96% come from the supply chain. It needs to cut emissions by half by 2030, a big challenge. In the European Union the solution being considered is for the European Commission to offer state backed and market backed guarantees for deals. Guarantees would be offered by member states of the EU or banks and insurers to provide backing for purchase agreements buyers to overcome credit constraints. ...