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Britain's Office of National Statistics shows that the deaths during this pandemic match the deaths during World War I in 1918 and World War II in 1940. The vivid picture of Winston Churchill at Coventry Cathedral in England with this story in The Times tells a lot about what has happened and what is happening today. There were 608,000 deaths in 2020 exceeded only slightly by the deaths in 1918 when deaths were 611,000. 1940 showed a jump of 16% from 1939 in deaths, 2020 showed a 15% increase.

With 168,000 of the deaths in private homes there is say health care experts "a silent crisis raging."

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Small pensions and rising health care costs are problems for China's older people. The misuse of pension funds and corruption in Shanghai raises serious concern about the future for an aging population.

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President Biden passed same sex marraige legislation. Twelve Republican Senators from southern, midwestern and western states including North and South Carolina, Utah, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Wyoming and Maine supported the legislation. Some had relatives or children in that situation. Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming who is a member of the Trinity Lutheran Church gave her reason- "For the sake of our nation we do well by taking this step", giving an emotional speech on the floor of the Senate about the need for more tolerance "during turbulent times for our nation." By putting divisive issues aside America can bring opinion together around the issues central to our future- the need for strengthening democracy, rebuilding the nation's aging infrastructure, investing in manufacturing in America, investing in education, health and rebuilding communities across this vast nation, and in the culture that sees this as vital to our future and the future of the world. ...

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UN projections show median age of Chinese citizens will overtake that of Americans in 2020. Yet China's median income is only a quarter of that in the U.S. Life expectancy in China today is 76, very close to that in America. In 1960 a Chinese person born that year had life expectancy of 44 years.  China is aging at the pace of Japan, and a bit slower than South Korea, but wealth per capita was three times higher in South Korea and Japan than China when the aging accelerated. A Chinese woman fertility rate today is 1.6 compared to 4.6 in 1973. A prominent Chinese economist says in a recent report that median age in China in 2050 will be nearly 50 compared to 42 in America and 38 in India. WSJ cites figures showing China will have gone from 9 working age adults per retired person in 2000 to just two by 2050. So how to pay for retirement of all these workers today? Government spending on retirement is a tenth of GDP, about half the level in older wealthier countries, and increase in spending will impact growth. Today this is about 6.2% potential growth rate. It also pushes wages up with a shortage of workers in cities such as Shenzen and X'ian even with the use of new technology and robots in factories.  Solutions are to raise retirement age currently set at 60 years, increasing labor force participation of women as Japan has done, and increasing productivity. China has transferred 10% equity stakes in four state owned financial firms to the national pension fund to shore up its finances as estimates from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show it running out of money in 2035. Traditionally children supported families in old age but the one child policy leads to situations where the child is working or in another city. In Suzhou near Shanghai, a retirement business sends 1800 helpers to private homes and 130,000 retired people, in a new trend. The city administration of Shanghai plans 400 neighborhood care centres for elderly by 2022, with health clinics, drop in facilities, and homes. 12,000 elderly people use one centrre in central Shanghai area of Changning. ...

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Geriatrician Bill Thomas is trying to change attitudes and perceptions in America about aging. He sees this as a special period in life offering many opportunities to be creative, to find new meaning and joy in different activites, and to contribute to society in many ways. He is supported in these efforts by the AARP. With modern medicine baby boomers are expected to live much longer. To make these lives productive and useful society in all countries needs to change its perceptions about aging. Jimmy Carter, a former president, showed this in his attitude to aging, doing many activities he enjoyed and contributing to society in many ways. This has a lot to do with healthy habits, and healthy attitudes to life, which should be cultivated when still young, so that one becomes more resilient as one ages and looks for new things to do.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the only Treasury Secretary who also served as the chairperson of the US central bank the Federal Reserve 2014-2018, and the only woman in these roles. Here she says she toured the country in 2022 a year after joining the Biden administration as head of the finance ministry. What she has seen are the early results of president Biden's  two trillion dollar bills, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Science and CHIPS Act 2021, which give manufacturing and new infrastructure building a critical role in a new revitalized America. All across this vast country aging infrastructure is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is changing the landscape. Yellen says the US economy is resilient and growing amidst a global economic slowdown and higher interest rates. The labor market is strong and household balance sheets are healthy, consumer spending robust, says Yellen. It provides the basis for American global economic leadership in the years ahead. ...

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Is aging linear or non linear happening in spurts as life's events, a trauma, adversity, immunity levels covid infection or other infection take place in people's lives. Research leans to molecular changes that are linear for a white and then shift to nonlinear and in a spurt change the outcome of one's health. Living well involves being aware of such spurts and counteracting them with improved lifestyle behaviours in food, exercise, sleep and recreation.

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The Republican tax law of 2018 is unpopular, according to a new NBC/WSJ poll in April 2018. Only 27% of people in the poll view the tax law favorably, 36% view the tax law unfavorably. About one third or 32% say they have no opinion, possibly because they have no clear idea of how it will impact them or the country. On trade and other economic issues the Republican Party is viewed more favorably, including for its tougher stance to give the U.S. a level playing field. Even though the Republicans are not viewed so favorably on taxes, the poll findings show the Democrats are not seen as better on taxes and economic issues. The poll also shows the Democratic Party better able by large margins to handle issues such as gun violence, sexual harrassment and health care. This shows that under an aging Democratic leadership of Pelosi, Hoyer and Schumer, and the failure of Hillary Clinton, the younger Democrats with a more Progressive tendency are having to make their own case with people not clear how the Democrats can offer a better alternative. ...

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Mangia is eat in Italian and this refers to eating less as away to longevity and health.The advantages of a Mediterranean diet with vegetables, nuts, legumes and fruits that unfortunately is less popular in Italy as diets have changed and obesity has increased, says this report from Italy. Another aspect of this is for wellness eating light and occasional days of very light food intake akin to fasting reduces effects of aging and increases healthy years of life past 60-70 years.

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In his State of the Union Address president Biden set the tone for the next 2 years of his term, and in preparation for another term to Build Back Better for America. He talked about his efforts to address the needs of America in rebuilding aging infrastructure, restoring its place in manufacturing, chips and science, and addressing climate change with trillions of dollars of investments. No longer would crowding out of government investment happen as it did in the last two decades with neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, workers and families, and massive misallocation of capital in capital markets. On Jobs, America and Renewal, "on rewarding work, not wealth" "Jobs are coming back. Pride is coming back because of the choices we made in the last two years. This is a blue collar blueprint to rebuild America and make a real difference in your lives." He told Congressman McCarthy-          "I don't want to ruin your reputation but I look forward to working with you." Reminding Republicans-  "The people sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for the sake of power, conflict for the sake of conflict gets us nowhere." ...

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China adopts a two child policy nationwide in October 2015, abandoning a one child policy adopted in 1980. Experts had warned for years of a policy that would lead to fewer young people, and a rapidly aging society. UN forecasts show China will have about 400 million people over the age of 60 in 2030, 25% of the population in 2030, compared to 14% today if current trends continued. Growth of elderly people would burden the pension and health care systems. The birth rate of 1.4 children per woman is lower than in the U.S. today.

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Kerala and Tamilnadu states with declining fertility, migration and ageing society are outliers in India with about half its population under the age of 25. About 600 million people in India are in the 18-35 age group- a clear case of rising aspirations society is happening in India at the very time that the US and European Union are looking at India for the future with shared values of representative democracy, open societies, and building a new supply chain in Asia. This BBC report looks at the state of Kerala where migration is leaving parts of the state only with elderly people. About 10% of the $100 billion in remittances each year from Indians overseas come to the state of Kerala. Life span is about 75 years in Kerala exceeding the national life span of 69 years. However this is looking at it backwards as India remains a vibrantly young country even with the advances in longevity where much of India is close to age 70 years in longevity and advances in medical care and health are taking place at a rapid pace. The problems of Kerala are an outlier for India. ...

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This story about companies in Australia that have tried a four day week shows employees using two mini weeks working Monday and Tuesday, taking off Wednesday and back to work for Thursday and Friday. It shows employees planning their Mondays and Tuesday miniweek in such a way that they can handle important work and meetings ahead of time. They come back recharged and renewed on Thursday, with Wednesday as the day to break up the work week in two. This has increased productivity at these companies. This is also a useful idea for older employees who work part time and work past usual retirement ages of 60 or 65 years as longevity increases in many countries. This enables retaining the vast experience of older workers in the workplace and promoting the health of older workers by keeping them active. As Japan, the U.S. and Europe and even China become aging societies this is becoming ever more important.  For worker on five day weeks this offers creative ideas to have a four and half day week giving workers a morning off or an afternoon off to recharge with sports or recreation activity or exercize, then coming back to work recharged in the afternoon. Other variations can also be used which promote productivity and employee satisfaction to get more of the most valuable work done more effectively and with enthusiasm, pushing less important work and time wasting out of the way. Employees generally would take charge of their work day and come up with creative and efficient ways of organizing their mini work weeks. ...

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Gerard Lemos writes from London about Chinese society today. He was visiting professor to Chongqing University of Business and Technology from 2006 to 2010. During this period he talked to many ordinary Chinese to find out what was on their minds -concerns that stemmed from China's one child policy, urban migration, health care needs, education and jobs were all uppermost in their minds. Lemos says even with the rapid industrial progress the lives of ordinary citizens are affected by fears and uncertainty about the future. The lack of jobs, lack of good healthcare, children who have migrated, are all part of their daily lives. For older people the one child policy in an aging society means the prospect of being alone in old age and the prospect of inadequate health care. For the young education and job concerns. Lemos points out that it is not about a choice between China's model and a Western model, it is more about a search for the Chinese soul, now that the basic material conditions are in place with the usual gaps and problems. At the same time it is a society prone to political sentiment such as the anti-Japanese protests....

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As president Jinping begins a second five year term his focus is on the small communities like Chashan, only a 6 hour drive from Beijing, that were neglected in the rush to industrialization. He has vowed to get rid of poverty in China by 2020. About 43 million people live in rural communities that have mostly older people and live on 95 cents a day. There is another challenge say experts which is the much larger popuation that lives in rural and urban areas- including urban migrants without property and residence rights- who live on less than $5.50 per day, $165 a month, according to the World Bank. This is about 1070 yuan per month, or in Indian rupees for a comparison with India- which was at a similar stage of development in 1990- of Rs 10,000 per month. About 40% of China's population or 560 million people are in this group. With a rapidly aging society as a result of the earlier one child policy, China faces the risk of not advancing from the level of a middle income country, in the way that South Korea and Japan have moved to levels similar to Western Europe and the U.S. As China's growth level slows and with an aging society this remains a major challenge. As this report shows there is great pressure on local officials to eliminate the poverty level of people living below $30 or about 200 yuan a month, as targets are set at local levels and corruption weakens the effort. There is concern at the lack of an effort to improve the living conditions of the 200 million rural migrants living in cities, who under China's "hukou" system are not considered residents and are not getting education and health benefits. ...

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The caretaker government of prime minister Mark Rutte in the Netherlands will commit to following austerity plans in its Stability Program report to the European Union. Elections are now set for September 12, 2012. The government was able to get the support of two smaller left-leaning parties to austerity plans. Opposition parties have questioned the policies and said they will reverse them if elected. Rutte's Liberal party and Jaeger's Christian Democrats, with the help of the Christenunie, D66, and Groenlinks, now hold a slim 2 seat majority in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. The Freedom party that had previously supported Rutte withdrew support for austerity policies that it said would hurt pensioners. The moves help avert a credit ratings drop by the credit ratings agencies leading to a loss of the Dutch triple A credit rating. The measures will increase the sales tax from 19% to 21%, make health care spending cuts and impose a pay freeze on civil servants. Savings achieved will be 11 billion euros. Rutte described his actions as: "the government's respose to the acute crisis in confidence in the financial markets." Earlier in the week Fitch Ratings had threatened to lower the Netherlands credit rating. The measures will reduce the Dutch deficit to 3% in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012 to meet EU fiscal compact rules. The changes to the health system are part of changes advocated by the OECD and the IMF because of surging health care costs for an aging Dutch population. There is concern about the sales tax increase because of its effect on consumer spending, and recent comments by S&P managing directors and others in financial markets emphasize the need for economic growth, as austerity measures by itself are inadequate solutions....

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Improvements in birth rate and more immigrants in Germany are making the demographic picture look better in Germany. About 13 million people are expected to reach retirement age in just a few years, according to Prof Enzo Weber, Institute of Employment Research. This means 13 million new pensioners. Birthrate today is about 1.4 children per woman. At this level of birthrate and even a low rate of immigration of 100,000 per year Germany's population of 83 million today would decline over time. Between 1990 and 2008 more people left Germany than came in with a net outflow. Some level of immigration would be the only way to keep the level of people in the workforce of 43 million today to become stable in the future. This would be needed to support the increasing number of pensioners. Yet the general aging of the population is expected to continue. And a high level of immigration in too short a time such as from the Syrian refugee crisis creates other tensions in the social fabric of society. Germany's very homogenous society faces a challenge that goes beyond the politics of the refugee crisis of today. Too many immigrants in too short a time is not the solution, immigration has become too politicized in today's context, good and early integration of immigrants through language and culture training needs to be established. Prof. Weber points out that the influx of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe has helped the labor market, and there is no reason that the labor market could not dry up with the number of people retiring soon. Tackling that will involve making family and career life choices easier and enabling flexible work-life choices, increasing retirement age, and some level of healthy immigration. A demographic summit will be held on March 16th in Berlin to look at the problem. ...

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Diana Nyad makes a second attempt to swim from Cuba to Florida. This is her second attempt, the last one in 1978. After the 1978 attempt she settled into a career as a radio and television journalist. She is now 61. One day when she was driving in Los Angles the thought went through her mind about what she felt she wanted to do most- and this was to make the effort one more time to cross the distance between Cuba and Florida. In August 1978 her effort failed because of high winds and eight foot waves. After 49 hours and 41 minutes she found herself way offcourse closer to Brownsville, Texas, as the nearest land point. Here Sally Jenkins documents that first swim and the preparation for the second one, coming long after the first at the age of 61. Last summer Nyad swam for 24 hours on the coast of Florida as part of the training. Nyad will have the help of scientific advance in the three decades since 1978. Jennifer Clark, a satellite oceanographer based in Annapolis and her husband Dan, a meteorologist, are experts on Gulf stream water conditions. They will look for a three day period when waves are calmer and water conditions are warmer. Another advance is the use of kayakers with devices that create electric waves who will paddle alongside her to ward off sharks. And Nyad has Dr Broder, a clinical professor at the UCLA School of Medicine, to help monitor her physical condition and fluid loss. Still as Broder says, its 98% about Nyad's focussed effort. And about age, Nyad says, she forgets, as she trains by swimming from island to island in the Caribbean. For oceanographic expert Jennifer who is 65, there is something vicarious about Nyad's effort, as it is for the others who are helping with the expedition....

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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Community Aging in Place: Advancing Better Living for Elders, has been here since 2009, it is offered in about 65 places across 26 states. in the US. It helps people 60 and up stay in their homes such as Chikao Tsubaki 87 years shown here in the Washington Post. It brings a repair worker into the home to figure out how to make it safer for falls, in addition to an occupational therapist and a nurse. Center for Disease Control and Prevention says these falls contribute to deaths of 41,000 older Americans each year and cost Medicare $50 billion. Yet this report in The Washington Post shows Medicare does not cover it, and most private insurance plans do not grasp the idea of keeping people healthy in good settings, paying only when people fall, doing little to prevent the falls. Sarah Szanton is a nurse practitioner who worked with older Americans in home settings in West Baltimore and started CAPABLE in 2009, and is now Dean of the John Hopkins University School of Nursing. In it the client and care team work together to do problem solving and brainstorming. One study shows $20,000 in savings a year for Medicare continuing for 2 years person after one CAPABLE intervention. ...

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Milan will host the World Cities Culture Summit in 2020, and the Winter Olympics in 2026 shared with the Alpine town of Cortina. The international book fair of Turin is moving to Milan. The left of centre Mayor Giuseppe Sala has promoted the city to increase tourism by 50%. And foreign investment is increasing for new construction projects with $21 billion to be taken up in the next 15 years. Experts are asking if this is coming at a price as the rest of Italy has stagnated for 20 years, and the rural large city gap is increasing throughout Europe. The flow of professionals to cities such as Milan, Paris, Munich, Berlin, from other towns and cities is creating a huge shift that experts at the Centre of European Reform see as a problem because of the political turmoil, and rising inequality with ever widening gaps between smaller cities and towns and rural areas with the big cities. This is compounded by ageing and demographics such as seen in the eastern part of Germany, and parts of France. Experts call it The Big European Sort, where a sifting or sorting process is increasingly transforming the demographics of European countries and driving polarisation. This process is also happening in the U.S. Experts say the big cities benefitted from the change with the European single market and the European Union. Places where working class people live are not seeing and increase in wealth which is disproportionately going to professionals clustered in big cities. Deindustrialisation has turned places like Mezio only 20 miles from Milan into industrial ruins. Towns that once voted socialist are now voting far right in these hollowed out industrial places. In the U.S. and in Europe the process was exacerbated by the flow of cheap imports from Asia hollowing out factories in regions around big cities, and by the growth of services industry in big cities with globalization in finance, legal, and other professional services. Fro 1980 to 1995 Paris region lost about $5.5 billion in industrial output and gained $20 billion in services output that also aligns with globalization in areas such as finance, according to CER, Eurostat. The process had accelerated in 1995-2020. By telling this story about Milan and the Lombard region around it like Mezio, The Guardian is saying it is time to look at how everything works together rather than breaking apart- citing the Finnish architect Saarinen about how a chair fits into a room, a room into a house, and a house into its environment, an environment in a city. So the question is how can we build the future by seeing that the city fits into a region, and a region fits into a country. As a young professional described this on BBC television interview recently this is a difficult period with the ability to design the future seemingly snatched away by the times, but also an opportunity to rethink and take the actions today for a better tomorrow for all. This is part of the coverage on Cities in The Guardian looking at how cities can work, and how cities can become part of healthy regions, for organic growth. ...

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The South China Morning Post provides this view of China on the day of the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, on the long road from the founding of the government in 1949 under Mao, the Cultural Revolution, and the shift to a state sponsored market economy under premier Deng in the 1980's.  From being at early stages of industrialization to a fully developed modern and industrialized country over three decades.  The challenges China faces are whether its growth will slow with a high debt situation, trade war with the U.S., aging population and the housing bubble that has created problems in Hong Kong. This could lead to a situation where its per capita income stays in the middle range at around $12,000 per capita, referred to as a middle income economy by the World Bank. Some experts believe that the factors that propelled China since 1990- a youthful labor force, globalization reducing tariffs and benefitting from entry into WTO, easy access to western technology, land sales for local governments to finance industrial development, rapid urbanization, and infrastructure investment in electricity rail and highways, are now reaching their limits with smaller incremental steps and growth in the future. The big gains made in the last three decades could be limited by other factors also such as the high debt economy, build up of industrial overcapacity, limited domestic consumption to take the place of exports facing high tariffs. Countries normally face some slowdown in such situation after a period of rapid growth, Japan and South Korea being recent examples. During the transition period to a new kind of economy from the manufacturing export push Asian model many unseen social and other problems emerge. The situation in Hong Kong shows how the housing bubble can also lead to problems that require resources and attention.  There are other social problems that continue to remain hidden. It does not take long for hidden problems to emerge as the situation in Brazil for lack of sanitation and epidemic prevention shows. In China the cost of too rapid development has led to pollution of rivers and land that will need to be cleaned up. The effect of contamination of food supply is an ever present risk with the contamination of land and water. Little attention is paid to prevalence of smoking and its damaging effects on health. The one child policy also brings with it cultural issues of how a whole new generation of children without siblings. Many other social problems that affect the quality of life become evident as growth slows and addressing these problems can actually benefit the country and its people. ...

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Karen Elliott House, a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal, who won a Pulitzer prize for reporting on the Middle East, is now researching Saudi society. She now writes this scathing report from Saudi Arabia. She says that just as in Egypt, an old corrupt leadership continues in power for several decades, an old corrupt leadership in the form of 7000 princes in a vast royal family. King Abdullah is in his eighties and the ruling princes have an average age of 83, and have illnesses for which they are under medical treatment. They continue to lead a nation where 60% of the people are young people under the age of 18! Itself an astounding fact. Karen House points out that the internet and social media have also made the young very knowledgeable about the conditions in the country- where 40% of Saudis live in poverty and 70% cannot afford a home. Bad managemet by the princes has affected basic services including the sewage and drainage problems in Jeddah after the floods. It is astounding that far less wealthy Gulf sheikdoms are doing a better job of providing education, jobs and health care. Thirty years of visiting Saudi Arabia, and the last four years of intensive reporting, has persuaded Karen House that this situation is at an impasse that might end up resolving itself through some sort of upheaval. To Karen House this looks like the last days of the aging leadership under Brezhnev before the Soviet Union collapsed....