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Things may not turn out the way polls show is the subject of this editorial in the WSJ. Prospects of some Republican candidates for the Senate in Arizona and Missouri are not what they appeared before. The division among Republicans about the legitimate votes in the 2022 presidential election as an issue in the midterms is leading to a fragmented election effort. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 shows Democrats responding to the issue of inflation and climate change, leading to new questions about Republicans in the rest of 2022.

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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It comes as a shock to central banks and is pressuring governments- the food price explosion that won't go away even as energy prices are moderating. OECD graphs in this WSJ report show food prices up in 2023 over the prior year by 15-20% in France, Germany and Britain, compared to 5-10% in the US, Canada and Japan. In France households have cut food purchases by 10%, and in Germany by 10.4% over prior year in the largest drop since records were being kept in 1994. In Britain the statistics agency shows that 40% of the poorest 20% of people are cutting back on food purchases. Ludovic Subran who worked at the UN World Food Program says it is an "access problem." Food production has not dropped, people just can't afford to pay the prices. In Britain The Resolution Foundation says higher food prices since 2020 means the British public by summer 2023 will have to pay more in food bills $35 billion more than the 25 billion pounds for energy bills. Policymakers call higher profit margins by retailers as a possible cause as in world commodity markets food prices are falling since April 2022. Andrew Baileyof the Bank of England says it is the "fourth shock to inflation" after the supply chain bottlenecks, the energy price increases from the war in Ukraine, the tight labor markets. In Italy, Spain and Portugal governments have offered sale tax relief, in France and the UK government is leaning on retailers to curb price increases. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the impact on the economy worldwide from the effects of variants of Covid-19 in 2022. He cites IMF estimates that global output will be 3% lower in 2022 than it had projected in 2019, with Western Europe and Latin America taking larger hits. US growth is distorted and disrupted with the effects of absence of workers from illness (5 million American workers not working in December 2021 because they were sick, or caring for someone sick or afraid of spreading it), supply shocks from supply chains, 7% inflation. The boost to productivity from digitization conceals the impact of an overworked and fatigue prone remote working workforce, says Greg Ip.

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Social Security payment are likely to increase by 3.3% in 2024 in line with about 3% inflation, after an increase of 8.7% in 2023. 46% of retirees paid taxes on a part of their benefits. About 40% of Americans depend on social security payments for half of their income, and 14% for 90% of their income. Average 401K balances are up to $223,000 for people 65 to 69 years, according to Fidelity Investments.

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Most of the provinces vote in favor of Milei including Cordoba and Mendoza, Salta and SantaFe. Only Buenos Aires province and two other provinces vote in favor of Sergio Massa, the Peronist candidate. Milei wins by 56% to Massa's 46%. The election is affected by the Peronist party president Fernandez's failure to control inflation that has reached 140%. La Nacion points out that most voters are angry at the political and economic reality, and are not voting for an ideology. In April 2020 one US dollar was worth 80 pesos, in 2023 it is 1000 pesos. Argentine has a chronic problem- repeated bouts of high inflation over 4 decades.

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Milei wins 41% of the vote in Argentina midterm Congressional elections in October 2025, with one third of Congress to support his economic programs to fight runaway inflation. About one third of the people live in poverty, as Milei resorted to tough action to fight over 100% inflation. It is  now down to 30%. Argentines are determined to find a way out of this inflationary crisis that happens once every decade for the last 70 years. The US plans to provide $20 billion in loan assistance, and another $20 billion from private funds. The IMF has a $55 billion program to support the economic programs that cut the number of people in the state sector companies and government, cut economic subsidies and social assistance, in a desperate effort to rein in inflation. Only when all members of society pull together, particularly young people, can a nation get its economic act right. Argentina must find a way. A rainy day fund has to be set up as happened in Brazil and Russia, financial prudence exercised by leaders, and the young people stepping up to change the country's future, change the trajectory forever. ...

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Some clues to why president Biden is not getting the credit for work done to better people's lives is the workplace. Workplace dissatisfaction measured in the Gallup 2023 Workplace Report shows the number of workers stressed, disengaged, or angry, is rising. A BambooHR analysis of data from 57000 workers shows job satisfaction scores have dropped to the lowest level since 2020, dropping 10% in 2023. Some of the causes- the unsettled state of the workday, being micromaanaged back to the office, even as they realize the isolating nature of remote work or hybrid work, inflation erasing any gains in wages, and a cooling job market leaving some stuck in same roles. New workers were hired in 2022-2023 and many have still to find fulfilling roles. Employers focused on hiring and less time was spent on situating new employees well. This is happening even as workers have more control where they work. Other causes are a backlash to employers efforts to get all employees back to the office. Another issue nearly a thrid of workers do not work in the same place as their bosses at large companies, up from 23% in 2020, accroding to an ADP survey. This means workers have long distance relationships with bosses and co-workers, weakening ties. In 2023 it is a very different workplace than before the pandemic. It may also offer some clues to why workers are skeptical about the work done by the Biden administration looking at their own lives after the pandemic even though major efforts are being made by president Biden in cost of living, in wages, support for labor and unions, and in rebuilding infrastructure and public services. ...

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Le Monde publishes the speech JD Vance gave at the Munich Security Conference with it says added context and explanation. It is useful because it is easy to make hasty judgements in one direction or another. The focus here is on immigration to EU and to the US, a sore point. Vance does not mention a bigger sore point - the lack of recognition worldwide to the 490,000 American lives lost in the illegal flow of fentanyl into the US without needed action from CMC Canada, Mexico and China. And business as usual carried on by these countries and the European Union, and a failure to act by the US.  JD Vance said- "And of all the pressings—challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all-time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States—also an all-time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And, of course, it’s gotten much higher since.And we know the situation, it didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade." Fact Check- About 14 million of Germany's 84.5 million people are foreign nationals according to Destatis. This is 16.6% of Germany's population. Vance rounds it off to 20% not 17%. In the US there are 47.8 million people who are foreign born or 14.3% of the population in 2023. It increased by 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023, much of it coming from Venezuela and Central American failed states from left parties mismanaging the economy for hyperinflation and from gang violence. In 2022 EU member states welcomed 1.8 million Ukrainian nationals that was only 100,000 in 2021, which is two thirds of the increase. The reason for Vance's doubling. A similar situation happened in the US with Venezuela as a failed state with hyper inflation into 1000 percent inflation leading to migration to other Latin American countries and into the US during the Biden administration. Some of this happened because sanctions made things worse, mismanagement of the economy. A similar migration happened from Syria into the EU member states as a result of the civil war.     ...

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Jay Powell at US central bank the Fed says economy is strong and stable in March 2025. He points to low unemployment at 4% and other improvements including in lowering inflation that show the US economy in good shape, in his comments at Congressional hearings.

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US Supreme Court hears arguments from D. John Sauer Solicitor General of the US on DJT Tariffs Wednesday, November 5, 2025. The Supreme Court will hear about a case brought by a small wine importing company with 19 employees. The US president used the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) that allows the president to impose tariffs. The IEEPA was introduced by president Jimmy Carter in 1977. It was used during the Iran hostage crisis. It has been used for the Venezuelan regime after elections were rigged with human rights violations, on Belarus as early as 2006, and on Mexico for drug cartels. This increases the responsibilities of the Justices of the Court as these sanctions have broad support of the American people. Tariffs were imposed on China for illicit fentanyl flows and a 25% tariff was imposed on Canada and Mexico under Executive Orders 14193, 14194, and 20% on China under Executive Order 14195 in 2025 for illicit drug traffic flows across their borders into the US. Illicit flows that has taken the lives in the case of fentanyl of more young people than were killed in the Vietnam, Korean and First World Wars combined.  For the reason that the economic aspect of tariffs now overlaps with trading partners abuse of basic rights of their largest trading partner the US in the case of Canada, Mexico and China not stopping such flows, the issue before the Supreme Court is basic to the US as a Nation to protect its citizens under these Executive Orders and IEEPA- not the kind of interpretation of the law the USC does for most or almost all of its cases. In 2025 a lot of the discourse is distorted and does not reflect the way citizens of the Nation should show concern for the welfare and safety of their fellow citizens in communities around them severely hurt by the scourge of fentanyl and other opioids making their way from other countries conducted by drug trafficking gangs outside the US.  Also relevant is that the tariffs are correcting trade deficits of $1 trillion of the world with China that threaten the economic security of the US, EU, India and other countries. Larger companies are moving their supply chains out of China to reduce concentration in China, impact on inflation is slight with 3.0 % inflation in September 2025. Smaller companies such as the wine company in this lawsuit are unable to do so. Most of the smaller businesses affected can be compensated with a fund from the tariffs revenue of $500 billion in 2025-2026. In this way the goals of the US as a Nation can be achieved of reducing the supply channels concentration in China, cutting supply chain concentration in China, for fair trade with trading partners EU/Japan, and for action on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Justice Roberts and his team have a lot to think about in this effort by the Nation to correct abuses that should never been allowed to happen. ...

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Much of inflation's rise in the US has been transitory after all, says Greg Ip in the WSJ, yet credit Jay Powell at the Fed for his resolute fight against inflation. Gasoline that was over $5.00 a gallon in June when inflation was at 9.1% following Russia's Ukraine war is now $3.27 according to AAA, and this is an important reason why inflation is at 6.5% in December 2023. Demand for autos after pandemic and lockdowns coupled with supply chain problems caused auto prices and used car prices to rise sharply. This is now reversing with price declines. Ultra low interest rates caused a jump in home prices- this is reversing with Jay Powell and the Fed increasing interest rates sharply.

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Fed's Jay Powell says about his interest rate increases of five percentage points at consecutive meetings since March 2022- "We've seen the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market. That is really a good thing." Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the 9 year period of most growth cycles in the US economy since 1980 and says a soft landing could be followed by growth till about 2030. Business investment led to 2.4% growth in the second quarter 2023. More investment is in the pipeline under the Biden economic plan. As inflation is going down to about 3% from 9% at its peak in 2022 the US is set for economic growth that would help it grow in a way that would enable America to meet the challenges of today in climate change, worker incomes and the cost of living, and in need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure in the way it was done in the years after 1945 under Truman and Eisenhower.

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US inflation eases to 7.1% in November after the aggressive action by the US Fed under Jay Powell. The Labor Department reported that the CPI index was up 7.1% over a year ago. It peaked at 9.1% in June and was up 7.7% in October 2022. Gasoline prices which peaked at $5.26 a gallon in June are now at $3.50. Supply bottlenecks in June have also eased. Economists say there is still more room for inflation to fall as housing prices moderate and supply chains return to normal. A tight labor market and consumer purchases with higher wages have also fueled inflationary price increases.

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A warmer than expected winter and lower inflation is helping European stocks in Jan 2023, says this report in the WSJ. European indexes are also not weighed down by the decline in tech stocks as in the US. Germany's DAX and France's CAC have risen by 16% compared to 6.9% in the US for last 3 months.

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Hundreds of professors in UC university system in math, science and engineering protest removal of the standardized testing for college in California by Governor Newsom. After social justice movements misread what promotes and what doesnt the removal of standardized testing ACT/SAT tests by Governor Newsom is leading to a major disaster- as the number of unprepared students who need remedial help has increased 30 fold. The consequences are dire for the future of science and technology in America says the protest letter by hundreds of UC faculty-  “longer pathways through prerequisite material, reduced readiness for advanced coursework, and growing pressure to dilute quantitative rigor," for University of California system with 200,000 students — educating a huge section of the engineers in America’s universities.  "We now observe preparation gaps so severe that instructors must reteach middle-school mathematics.” “The SAT/ACT mathematics requirement is not an obstacle to equity; rather, it is a prerequisite for it. Failing to measure preparation gaps does not remove barriers; it moves them into the classroom, where they become harder to overcome.” Other points are that stanrdized tests are even more important in the severe grade inflation in 2026, and add AI-assisted application essays. The Washington Post says these are crusades for equity done the wrong way hurting the very students they are designed to help because the time to fix the problem is in the middle and high schools, after that it is impossible and leaves students no path forward. This experiment has failed and is a warning for other crusades for equity on "false pretenses," says The Washington Post. ...

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The surprise is the DJT Senate bill cuts to about 75% of the solar and wind subsidies in the Biden 2022 IRA Act for $843 billion in investments that were going to Republican districts. New rules in the Senate version of 3B Tax Cuts Bill require US renewable solar to disentangle supply chain from China by 2027 or face an excise import tax. All renewable subsidies will also be phased out earlier by 2027 instead of 2032 set by the Biden administration in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 with subsidies, tax credits for renewables solar and wind led to $843 billion in planned solar and wind investments. Suddenly much of this is placed in doubt. Instead of 2032 phase out the date is moved up to end of 2027 for 30% subsidies and to end of 2028. The result is confusion in the renewables industry and opposition to the excise tax for not disentangling from China supply chain by end of 2027 spreading to the US Chamber of Commerce. ...

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Fed's Powell sees only a temporary slight effect of DJT tariffs on inflation to 2.7% in 2025 that he says can be "looked through without action by us." Fed will wait for clarity in coming days and weeks. Powell says in March 2025 “It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by us. And that can be the case in the case of tariff inflation.” Tariffs are intended as they were in the first term of DJT and retained by Democrats led by Biden to create a level playing field after hidden subsidies by China, and to rebuild American manufacturing. New investments in manufacturing and in infrastructure supported by both DJT and Biden have brought new hope and vigor to comunnities and towns across America. For far too long as Powell understands textbook economic theory at Ivy League universities that had no connection to reality was used by American business to turn its back on communities and towns across the 51 states and the Nation. ...

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European economies are likely to weather the winter better than expected with sufficient energy supplies on hand after the Russian cutoff of oil and gas. This means says this WSJ column that the central bank for Europe, the ECB, can continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation. As Fed chairman Jay Powell pointed out at the Brookings Institution recently out of control inflation poses a major risk for upward mobility in American society. This is a risk that exists in both the US and Europe. In this sense 2023 is a critical year for the Fed and the ECB, for Lagarde and for Jay Powell, to bring it back under control.

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A study by Blanchard and Bernanke shows energy prices and supply chain constraints were key factors in creating the surge in inflation that happened in 2022. The Ukraine war played apart in raising energy prices . How much effect did president Biden's $1.6 trillion American Rescue Plan have on inflation? Bernanke and Blanchard say not what critics had suggested. Once energy prices were brought under control through the president's policies to $75 energy prices played less of a role in inflation. Supply chain effects also eased throughout 2022. The persistent effect remained the mismatch between supply and demand that is called The Great Resignation that came as a response from teachers, nurses, hospitality sector workers with low minimum wage on which it was hard to make a living. President Biden's payments to these workers gave them enough room to make a definite choice that they would not take the risks during the pandemic and the stress and opted for shifting to other jobs. Employers struggled to fill vacancies and raised wages in response. To reduce inflation the Fed opted to raise rates to slow the demand for goods and services in the economy which has led to a moderating of inflation from the high of 7% in 2022 to falling below 5% by April 2023. Fed chairman Powell's aggressive attitude to inflation was based on not letting an inflationary psychology set in, that could damage the interests of workers and families who had already suffered from the pandemic's effects. This is where we are today as the economy adjusts to the fight against climate change, investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, and efforts to reduce the deficit by president Biden in a way that reduces the widening gaps and social divisions in society.   ...

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...

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Marking the sixth straight month of declines the US consumer price index rose by 6.5% over a year earlier in Dec. 2023. This is down from 7.1% in November and 9.1% in June. The US central bank chairman Jay Powell is resolutely pursuing anti inflation policy. Retail sales, manufacturing output and home sales declined in November. Exports and imports also declined. Prices fell for products such as autos and computers. Job and wage growth slowed. Tackling service inflation is the next challenge for the US Fed and Jay Powell says the WSJ.

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US inflation in May was up 1% over April 2022, and 8.6% above a year earlier. Of the 1% increase in May over April about half was from increase in prices of appliances and furniture and consumer items bought from stores such as Walmart and Target. The trend is shifting quickly as buyers are shifting purchases out of this category and spending more on travel and eating out, entertainment. Retailers such as Target are stuck with excess inventory and plan to discount items. This will result in an easing of inflation.

Shortage of semiconductors for cars are persisting but should ease at some time. Service cost continue to increase. Overall there should be an easing of inflation but not enough for the Fed to change its policy of interest rate increases.

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The Japanese stock market index Topix dropped 6.1 percent on August 2, 2024. What caused this is the Japanese yen going from 161 to the US dollar to 150. The strengthening of the yen comes as the markets sensed two things- one the US Fed considering a rate cut based on employment and inflation reports, and the Bank of Japan raising rates. The rate increase of the Bank of Japan leads to a shrinking of the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US. That gap had shifted money in Japan in the direction of US holdings. On Aug 5 the Nikkei 22 Index dropped 12.2 percent. It rebounded on August 6 by 11%. By August 7 the Nikkei 225 index was up another 1.2 percent. The situation can be summed up by saying that the Nikkei settled into a situation which recognized some strengthening of the yen to 151 to the US dollar. The fundamentals for the US and for Japan have not changed.