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With the 15% mandated cuts to energy use in the European Union countries and the shutoff of Russian gas supplies, three remaining German nuclear plants can be run for an extended period to take off some of the strain on the German economy. Sentiment for nuclear power is changing in Germany. A Spiegel opinion poll is cited in this WSJ editorial that shows 78% of Germans favor keeping the three remaining nuclear plants operating till summer 2023, and 67% say it is a good idea to keep them running for 5 years.  The issues of nuclear vs solar, or coal and gas vs solar is not a yes or no proposition anymore as shown in the negotiated measures to allow some coal and gas operations in the US in the Biden Climate Change bill that passed the US Senate on August 7, 2022. This is not merely a concession to a fossil fuel dependent state (West Virginia) and Senator Manchin, this is a realization that the transition can be better managed economically and the same results for renewable energy and climate change emissions goals can be met with a carefully planned  strategy that allows for LNG exports to Europe, and fossil fuel production flexibility in the face of the embargo on Russian fossil fuel supplies. ...

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Of the $2.8 trillion that is invested in global energy supplies in 2023, $1.7 trillion or 60% will be in renewable energy, according to the International Energy Agency. Every day $1 billion is invested in solar power, much more than in upstream oil projects. IEA's Birol cites president Bide's Inflation Reduction Act as a major step forward. The war in Ukraine has also has accelerated the trend to renewable energy and renewable energy technologies.

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Is Norway endorsing the position of a former president of the US to "Drill, Baby Drill.?" It would cost upwards of 1 trillion dollars to fix US inaction on climate change to 2028. Norway is drilling like crazy to help Germany tackle the cutoff from Russian oil and gas supplies. It is also pursuing climate change action and green energy. The result is some confusion about where it is heading. The Guardian comments on this position taken by Norway. It can only be seen as oil and gas meeting a transition period's needs, yet with the severity of cliamte change events in the form of fires and floods in the world in 2024, is this a tenable position? Norwegians will say their cleaner fossil fuel production takes the place of dirty coal plants in Europe. How could Germany manage without Russian oil and gas without Norwegian supplies they ask. Others say Norway gets a quarter of its GDP from oil and gas. It is at the same time the country that is way ahead in renewables, most of its grid runs on renewables. And yet it has cut greenhouse gas emissions only by 11% since 1990 4 times less than Germany. Norway will come up for more criticism considering that its push on fossil fuels in 2023-24 is reducing investment for shift to a fossil free world. It is not an issue that can be talked away or not confronted head on as it is the harbringer of something worse- doing nothing for 4 years to 2028 that is proposed on the back of stuff that is being done by Norway- a US presidential candidate promising to relegate climate change action to zero by denying it exists and by saying "Drill, Baby Drill," at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee. ...

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European Union plans are for cutting by two thirds current imports of oil and gas from Russia in 2022. The EU's plan is to take down the imports of Russian natural gas from 155 billion cubic meters which represent 40% dependence on natural gas from Russia, the import figure for 2021, down to 100 billion cubic meters. James Henderson, chairman of the gas program and the energy transition research initiative at Oxford Insititute for Energy Studies, looks at how the EU will get this done.  The European Commission's plan is to get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas. New projects for LNG and return to market for supplies that were disrupted earlier would generate 40 billion cubic meters of LNG. Of this 30 billion cubic meters could go to Europe. Another 10 billion cubic meters is expected from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Some of this by delaying maintenance. Conservation and reduced consumption could deliver savings of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this 20 billion cubic meters would come from new solar and wind energy. Roof top solar and installing new wind energy can save about 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This does not include energy saving from industry, particularly Germany, which makes up a significant part of the use of oil and gas. Increased temporary use of coal may be considered and nuclear energy is an option in some countries. These are first step, additional action will be needed to reduce dependence on Russia from the current EU plan of one third reduction in 2022 to two third reduction by the end of the year to demonstrate the EU's resolve in the war in Ukraine. ...

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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The Truss government UK budget in September 2022 does little for the most vulnerable populations in the cost of living crisis. It also fail to take any significant steps to build up energy supplies. Of all the governments in the G-7 countries France, Germany, Italy, Canada, it is the weakest when it comes to promoting social cohesion or taking action to promote both energy supplies and renewable energy for the transition during climate change. Spain has just introduced a wealth tax for the 1%. Nothing like this is seen here, instead the highest tax of 45% is scrapped at a time when the wealthiest are seen by most people in all the G-7 countries as the most able and even willing today after the pandemic to provide help to the vulnerable and weakest parts of the population. It is seen as delusional by some as it does not inspire much confidence in the financial markets and many in the Conservative party itself. It fails the test even Mr. Boris Johnson set himself of leveling up in Britain between the well off and the less well off in society which led to his election and the election of the Truss government with Johnsopn's support. ...

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The market for oil field equipment is tight with 90% utilization, making it harder for larger oil producers to drill more oil wells for shale oil in the US. Large US shale oil producers reduced production when oil prices plunged and did not come back leaving smaller oil producers to increase production as prices went back up in 2021. Oil prices are now expected to reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.  Saudis and Russia are not expected to increase production say experts. The possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and shortage of energy supplies is also a factor. Oil demand in the US and Europe has rebounded with milder covid-19 from Omicron variant and fewer lockdowns. Automobile use is also up in the US with November showing 12% increase in miles driven over the prior year, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Low inventories and resilient demand, and low spare capacity will keep prices surging to $100 from today's price of Brent crude oil at $89 in January 2022.   ...

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US inflation drops to 6% in February 2023 from 6.4% in January. It is the smallest increase since September 2021. Shelter costs rose at 0.8% matching the largest gain since the 1980's. Elsewhere costs increased at at a lower pace for food and gasoline, consumers paid less to heat homes, and prices for used cars, medical services fell. A significant impact on growth is shown for Europe from the drop in oil prices to $77 from a peak of $121 adding as much as 1 to 2 percentage points to growth. A similar impact is expected in the US by keeping prices of oil lower through increase in alternative sources of oil, US increasing oil production, and significantly increased investment in renewable sources. This will help reverse the effects of the Ukraine war on world food and energy supplies and prices through constructive action by the US and its partners in the European Union.

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Texas is expected to surpass California in 2021 in solar energy with a new $1.6 billion project solar farm north of Dallas. California has 13,000 megawatts of solar energy. Texas has 29,000 megawatts of wind and solar energy production combined, the largest of any state in the U.S. Texas solar has potential to boost supplies in daytime when demand is highest. The cost of solar is coming down and the development of solar will accelerate in the U.S. in the next 5 years.

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Pipelines to Corpus Christi have reached capacity as US energy production reaches record levels says this report in WSJ. In the first half of 2023 2 million barrels a day passed through this pipeline. About half of the 4.1 million barrels a day the US shipped abroad were loaded onto tankers on this part of the Texas coastline. This oil helped Europe during the shortages after the closing of access to Russian oil supplies. Because Corpus Christi has terminals that make it cheaper to ship oil out it has become a dominant hub in the US for shipments overseas. It is the closest deepwater port to the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Corpus Christ is also transitioning to a future where hydrogen is produced for energy by applying for $8 billion from president Biden's renewable energy infrastructure package.

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India has reduced imports of oil from Iran from 12% in 2011 to about 9% by the end of April, 2012. A senior state department official from the U.S., Carlos Pascual, will be in India in mid May 2012 to assess the energy situation and see what specific energy facilities in India need to do. Some of the refineries in India are designed to handle only the kind of heavy oil Iran supplies. For the U.S. the issue is keeping up the pressure on Iran during the talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on Iran's nuclear program. For India it has the vital trade and economic relationship with the U.S. balanced against cultural ties to the region and the need for oil supplies.

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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The US dollar is rapidly appreciating against currencies such as the Indian rupee, the Japanese yen, the euro and the pound. The aggressive interest rate policy in the US and investor sense that the US central bank will take action against inflation is one reason the US dollar is stronger and will continue to strengthen in coming years. The weakness of emerging market currencies, the Bank of Japan's policy to continue keeping interest rates low, and the stronger US economy vs the European economy as Europe struggles with a war and cutoff of energy supplies from Russia, are other reasons for a stronger dollar in 2023 and beyond.

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A wind farm out at sea to start in 3 years, small renovation projects across France and Germany, a couple of billion dollars from the French government for home renovations- this kind of approach is considered completely unrealistic say EU legislators. One Danish legislator asks what is more unrealistic? Setting serious targets for conversion to renewable energy or depending on Putin's gas and oil?  These EU legislators are calling for aggressive action now. The European Commission set a 9% goal for energy savings by 2030, this has now been moved up to 13%. EU legislators are calling for 23% in savings by 2030. And even this may not be enough to meet the goals for climate change to prevent the disaster from climate change with fires and floods and heat waves that hurt agriculture and food supplies. A savings target of 19% is about the gas that runs 40% of the cars and trucks on American roads in 2021 or 214 million metric tons of oil. The French government has set aside 3 billion euros for comprehensive renovations of homes to save energy with a target of 300,000 homes in 2022. This is completely inadequate as it will cost 23 billion euros say experts on the Paris city council. Renovations are only running at 60,000 a year. A big part of the conversion in Europe is converting from gas heating to electric heating. France is boosting subsidies for new electric heat pump installations.   ...

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Germany is going through a second year of slight economic contraction. The newly elected government of chancellor Merz has setup a $1 trillion fund to invest in infrastructure and defense. This will increase the debt to GDP ratio from 62% much lower than other advanced economies to 75%, and could give the German economy a rebound with $500 billion for fixing aging infrastructure. Germany's unemployment rate stands at 6.3% in March 2025. The economy weathered a energy crisis with the cutoff of energy supplies from Russia during the term of chancellor Scholz. Infrastructure, child care, was neglected under Merkel and previous administrations as it was in the US under Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. The 2009 financial crisis, the eurozone debt crisis and the pandemic, Ukraine crisis from 2009 to 2024 have provided headwinds for action to renew Germany till now. A $1 trillion new fund and removal of the constitutional brake under the newly elected parliamentary majority of the CSU/CDU, the SPD and the Greens is the first step with $500 billion earmarked for fixing aging infrastructure, digitization of the economy, and other investment. The unemployment situation is deteriorating in the auto industry which was poorly managed and is now being hit with US tariffs of 25% on imported cars made by BMW, Mercedes and VW. ...

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Wages have gone up less in Europe than in the US. In the last 3 months of 2021 wages were up 1.2 % and inflation was up 4.7% for a fall in real wages of 3.1%, which has accelerated since then with the war in Ukraine and shortages of energy and food supplies. A YouGov poll shows that 15% of Germans cannot afford basic necessities and 53% are concerned about rising prices. Because basic things like food and energy where prices have gone up the most also take up large portions of the budget for lower income households. In Germany some unions are giving one off payments for energy bills and other costs to workers till negotiations lead to a settlement on increasing wages. The situation is similar in Greece, Italy and France. In Greece the government has given $3 billion for subsidies on gas and electric bills. Elections are now focusing on cost of living as in France where the second and third place winners in the first round Le Pen and Melenchon together took about half of the vote. ...

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US fuel exports are increasing with higher fuel prices overseas. The exports of oil, diesel and jet fuel from US Gulf Coast ports increased by 32% in the first quarter of 2022 over previous year says this report in WSJ. The exports of natural gas by pipeline or tankers to Mexico and Canada increased to 22% of total US production in the same period. Companies and exporters are gettting higher prices overseas than they could get in the US. This is also pushing gas prices higher in the US to over $5 a gallon.

Demand for US exports has gone up exponentially say experts and a lot more US exports could take place to Europe and other countries. And domestic prices have had to rise to keep supplies in the US. With the increase in natural gas prices come increase in cost of electricity and households are expected to limit their use of energy as this happens.

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This editorial Board opinion piece in the WSJ gives exceptional insights into major issues facing Germany, the cost of electricity generated from renewables, failure to meet climate change emissions targets set by the government, and the difficulty of forming a new coalition government with conflicting goals of the Greens vs the CDU and the FDP.  By one estimate it cost households and business about $125 billion extra in higher electricity bills for 2000-2015 to subsidize renewable energy from solar and wind. Utilities are required to buy renewable at above market rates, especially since the energy revolution called Energiewende was launched by chancellor Merkel in 2010. German electricity prices are about 36 cents per kilowatt hour compared to 13 cents in America. The 2011 decision following the Fukushima disaster to phase out nuclear power by 2022 made the effort to meet renewables targets of 40% by 2020 compared to 1990 -exceeding the 20% for the EU- even harder. Germany sees a 30% target for 2020 as reachable.   Even though renewables can generate 50% of required energy supplies, only 30% of the supplies are utilized as the renewables are generated mostly in the north of the country and there is a lack of transmission lines to bring it to the industrial south. The dirty secret says the WSJ editorial board for the renewable story in Germany is that a lot of coal is used in dirty coal plants to meet electricity needs when wind and solar energy are not available. Cheaper coal not natural gas is preferred for such generation as daytime peak use that recoups more expensive gas cost is managed with renewables. Leading to the situation that Germany generates only 9% of energy from natural gas compared to 30% in the U.S.. The further Germany has gone in renewables has also led to the paradox of increased dependence on coal. Getting to the new Jamaica coalition being planned between the CDU and the FDP and the Greens. The problem is that the Greens want to see the 20 most polluting coal plants closed, the CDU and the FDP are willing to close only ten coal polluting plants. The WSJ's opinion is that voters chose the AfD right wing party with 13% of the vote because of the platform promise to shut down Merkel's Energiewende policy.   ...

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India's 135 thermal power plants ahve just 4 days of coal stocks as of October 1, says the Financial Times, citing the power ministry. The power ministry has instructed plants to build up stocks. China is already facing a power shortage after coal fired plants were asked to cut down the use of coal to meet emissions targets. In early August coal fired plants in India had 13 days of stocks. With coal prices rising India did not buy enough coal to build up inventories. The manufacturing sector suffered a contraction in China for the first time since the pandemic started in 2020. China has instructed state owned energy companies to secure supplies of fossil fuel to prevent winter shortages. This further increased price of coal. Coal from Indonesia went up from $60 a ton in March to $200 a ton in September discouraging imports. The result is that with limited supplies and rising prices of coal India faces a perfect storm and power cutbacks as in China. ...

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European economies are likely to weather the winter better than expected with sufficient energy supplies on hand after the Russian cutoff of oil and gas. This means says this WSJ column that the central bank for Europe, the ECB, can continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation. As Fed chairman Jay Powell pointed out at the Brookings Institution recently out of control inflation poses a major risk for upward mobility in American society. This is a risk that exists in both the US and Europe. In this sense 2023 is a critical year for the Fed and the ECB, for Lagarde and for Jay Powell, to bring it back under control.

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Russell Gold's interview with Shell CEO, Jack Voser. Voser describes his perspective on the global oil situation in the next three decades with a doubling of demand in 40 years, a third of which would come from renewables and 10% from nuclear, the rest from fossil fuels. Natural gas plays a large role in Shell's future strategies. Voser sees the potential of China's shale gas supplies being larger than the U.S., with clearer energy policies than the U.S. The cost of producing China's shale gas will be higher because of complex geology. He sees the potential for the reindustrializing of the U.S. midwest with the abundant shale gas supplies, bringing back jobs that were exported to other countries. Clear standards and regulations are needed to make investments. He thinks it will be very unusual if the U.S. did not grasp this opportunity. Shell's operations generate $470 billion in revenues and its capital budget for 2012 was $32 billion, providing enormous scale and requiring careful planning for long term projects in Australia, Africa, Canada and the Middle East....

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With funding from the International Finance Corporation, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and other developing countries with shortfall in energy supplies are building offshore LNG terminals. The demand for LNG in these countries is expected to surpass the demand in developed countries.  IEA estimates show 90% of global LNG demand growth by 2022 coming from these emerging economies. Shortages of electricity in places such as Karachi and Dacca are the reason for the growth. Putting LNG terminals offshore is a viable and economical alternative. Petrobangla is completing a offshore LNG terminal by 2018 with IFC funding. Pakistan completed a floating LNG terminal at Port Qasim in 2015 for importing LNG from Qatar. This terminal alone covers 30% of the needs not met from domestic supplies in Pakistan for gas, according to Engro Elengy data.

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A Berlin based think tank, German Institute for Economic Research, says Germany could end its dependence on energy imports by winter of 2022. That is much sooner than mid-2024 as Economy Minister Habeck has stated.The issue has serious urgency as the war continues in April in Ukraine entering a new and more dangerous phase in the east. And every day oil and gas imports by European Union gives Russia $16 million for coal, $434 million for natural gas, and $489 million for oil, a total of close to $1 billion every day.  With new missile attacks on civilian buildings this is one way for European Union to shoulder some of the burden that it has not done so far. DIW think tank says this could be done with decreased industry and household consumption that could generate about 18-26% savings of the demand for Russian natural gas, suggesting that households turn down thermostats and use less warm water, and industry turn to alternative fuels such as coal and biomass. Another saving is from increased supplies from Norway and the Netherlands of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Increased supplies from Norway alone says DIW could cover 20% of current annual imports of gas from Russia. Instead of waiting to build new infrastructure, the new LNG terminals on the coast which face long construction times and eventually falling demand for natural gas which make them financially untenable, the best approach is to use existing infrastructure in LNG terminals in the Netherlands, Belgium and France to increase volume in EU pipelines. Such action would cover 25% of demand for Russian natural gas. Other action is get more efficient use of the European pipeline system to increase German gas imports from Algeria, Libya and other North African nations vis southern EU nations. ...

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With domestic oil consumption growing at 10% a year, and the Arab Spring leading to increased subsidies and social spending, the Saudis are looking at nuclear power to generate some of the supply of electricity. Saudi Arabia expects to have no reserve margin of supplies by 2020 at current levels of domestic consumption. In 2011 the Saudi government setup the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, or KA-CARE, for coming up with nuclear energy policies. KA-CARE has an agreement with French supplier AREVA.

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...