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Russian offers for settlement of Ukraine conflict in 2025 described as capitulation in the UK's Guardian- all of the eastern Donbass region and Crimea ceded to Russia, limits on its army and its long range weapons, leaving it too weak to defend itself. The UK, France oppose it. The new German government of CDU's Merz is increasing Germany's defense capabilities to shoulder the burden of defence in the EU in 2025-2026. Under this situation and with presure within the Republican party on DJT, it is unlikely that such a capitulation or agreement is likely to have a chance  for agreement. It is a restatement of Russian proposals in 2022.

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Retired General Keith Kellogg was in National Security roles in the DJT first term. He is the new DJT envoy to Ukraine and Russia with the goal of negotiating a settlement between Russia and Ukraine. He was chief of staff of the National Security Council in DJT's first term. And also the National Security Advser to vice President Mike Pence. The 80 year old veteran co-authored a paper for America First think tank which says- "The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement."  "Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia."  This comes as Zelensky's popularity in Ukraine has dipped to 16% and Ukraine's people do not want him to run again for president. This is intended to draw Ukraine into peace talks as prolonging the war would lead to enormous losses for Ukraine's cities and the people of Ukraine, Kellogg told the Voice of America at the Republican Convention in 2024, and peace talks would end the war with Russia. ...

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Fear of homelessness is a big problem for Ukraine refugees among the elderly. Many people who are in their 80's, with little in savings and no relatives in the western parts of the country refuse to leave. Some have not left when the Russian army is only two miles away as shown in towns like Bakhmut near the front lines in Donetsk eastern part of Ukraine. One elderly woman says they would drop her off at the station at Lviv or Dnipro, and then what, where was she to go. Rescue units volunteers take people to safety every day in these towns. Some leave when the artillery shelling becomes unbearable.

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Pictures and stories from the war front in the Kursk region of Russia as Ukraine pushes into Russian territory for 20-25 miles. Kursk a city of 500,000 is 70 miles from the border. The neighboring region of Belgorod and Voronezh are also part of the war zone. This was a place where the Red Army pushed back the Germans in 1943 when Ukrainians and Russians fought side by side.

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The issues raised on the effectiveness of peacetime militaries such as China after six decades since the Korean war in the fifties are raised in this report in the WSJ. The Ukraine war and the difficulty of transporting supplies except by rail for the Russian army, the lack of a motivated and trained combat force, are showing the problems of peacetime militaries that can lead to major miscalculations by world powers. 

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DJT was asked if China's celebration of Victory Day with Russia recently in Tianjin had any message for the US. He said he did not see it that way, that US has good relations with China. In this context the Smithsonian Museum exhibit on military history of the US shows a real aspect of the World War II in loss of life- Russia 17 million dead, China 11 million dead, Germany 10 million dead, Poland 5 million dead, Japan 2.5 million dead, US 1 million dead, UK 800,000 dead. Russian and Chinese losses of 28 million dead are 15 times the losses of US and UK combined of 1.8 million dead. With the scale of losses of such magnitude Victory Day celebrations in Tianjin can be seen in the context of this shared history and major losses overcome as much of the world knows with US help. A sobering view is that the colonial powers Imperial Japanese Army, French and British policies caused famines in World War II leading to 6-7 million deaths in India, Indonesia and Vietnam which is 4 times the 1.7 million US and UK deaths. Views of China in the Context of the Ukraine War and Russia are very different in US than in France and Europe and are widening in differences in 2025. In the US as in this report in the WSJ China is seen as a trade partner and competitor with certain issues, many of China's university leaders and experts question the prospect of a long term alliance with Russia, and for DJT Russia is a nuclear power with which US seeks good relations and a political settlement of the Ukraine War. In France as shown in the article in Le Monde adjacent to this the European attitudes towards Russia throughout European history since 1700 of regional rivalry between France and Russia, Germany and Russia since 1900, Britain and Russia since 1700. FDR led the alliance with Russia against the Nazis and Imperial Japanese in the 1930's and 1940's. Herbert Hoover led the effort to bring relief supplies and aid to Russian in the period of the Civil War after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. With China America kept the government in China functioning as it retreated from the invasion by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930's and 1940's and the only hope with Gen. Joe Stilwell in China alongside Chinese leaders. ...

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The German response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is to increase its spending on defense to over 2% of GDP.  An emotional Scholz told an extraordinary session of the German parliament - We have to ask ourselves: "What capacities does Putin's Russia have? And which capacities do we need to counter his threats?" "Putin wants to establish a Russian Empire... the question is... whether we can summon the strength to set boundaries to warmongers like Putin," said Scholz. Scholz said he would immediately invest 100 billion euros or $113 billion in weaponry. Mr. Scholz also announced concrete arms procurements including the decision to buy state-of-the art drones from Israel and F-35 warplanes from the US, which he said would be used to amplify NATO's nuclear deterrent against Russia. 

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China sees a principal peacemaker role for Ukraine peace settlement with its economic benefits in US/EU trade as foreign policy. NYT's David Sanger reports from the G-7 meetings in Italy in June 2024. He says the G7 sentiment is changing about China in the last few months of 2024 compared to 2023. In 2023 China was seen as a nation that had more in common with the US than Russia considering historical differences between the two nations. As the US veered round to the view China's indirect economic support and its technology was helping Russia in escalating attacks on Kharkiv and the border regions of Ukraine, Europeans were skeptical. No longer, the Europeans now see China's relationship with Russia in the same way. Another change observed is that China is not pursuing a peace settlement participation to end the war by not joining a Swiss effort. Instead says Sanger China is seen as wanting to wait so that at some future date it would be the principal actor in bringing all parties to a peace settlement for Ukraine. With Ukraine facing escalating attacks in the Kharkiv region the mood has changed and China is now seen differently from just a year back. This as shown in the adjoining article in NYT on student exchange for US and China and China's view that racism exists towards Chinese students in the US is affecting the effort for closer understanding between the people's of the two nations sought by the two nations since 1972, and in the interwar period with Gen. Joe Stilwell fighting the Imperial Japanese Army alongside the Chinese people. ...

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Differences between the U.S. and Germany at the Munich Security Conference on the approach to a settlement in Ukraine. Russia wants more autonomy for the rebel held areas and continues the flow of arms and men to eastern Ukraine. Russia's economy has been hurt to a limited extent by sanctions and larger extent by the plunge in crude oil prices, with inflation at about 15% in Feb 2015. Relations with the U.S. and Germany are at a low point, making negotiations more difficult. With Russia calling the conflict a civil war, and Ukraine's currency plunging, and the U.S. considering sending arms to Ukraine, France's Hollande and Germany's Merkel personally conduct difficult negotiations in Moscow in Feb. 2015. Merkel tells the Munich Security Conference that "this cannot be won militarily," as the reason to oppose U.S. sending arms to Ukraine. And Vice President Biden says he agrees, yet he says its important "to be equally clear: We do not believe Russia has the right to do what they're doing." U.S. Senator Graham supports sending arms aid. Senior officials say the Hollande-Merkel peace initiative gets some help from the U.S. approach as all earlier settlements have not been carried out by Russia....

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The Zeitenwende speech by chancellor Scholz in the German parliament came 3 days after Putin launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Zeitenwende means turning point in history- and Scholz's speech changed the mood in Germany to take on responsibilities for defense of Europe with a $100 billion fund. Chancellor Merz has expanded this and Germany's defense budget is expanding to $160 billion a year. Germany under Merz will invest 5% of its GDP on defense in future years making the Bundeswehr the largest army in Europe.

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DW.com looks at what it means for first Finland, and then Sweden joining NATO. For Finland the invasion of Ukraine where people speak Russian and have close cultural ties comes as a reminder of past history. Under the treaties that ended the war with Napoleon in 1815 after the Congress of Vienna, Finland was given to Russia and Norway wrested from Denmark was given to Sweden. Jens Stoltenberg now head of NATO is a former prime minister of Norway. Russia invaded Finland in 1940, and Germany invaded Norway during that war. As a result there are historical reasons why 62% of Finns support joining NATO.  What this means for NATO- This means NATO's border with Russia will double from 1300 to 2600 kilometres. Finland would be different alone compared to being part of the NATO alliance. For NATO this means 280,000 Finns in its army if mobilized under Finland's compulsory military service would be added to defending the border. Finland already is training with US equipment and training since 2015 and is in a joint defense plan with NATO. Sweden's situation is quite different. It has benefitted from neutrality and never been occupied by any power in the 500 years of European wars for balance of power in the region. In the last 200 years Sweden has acted as a neutral state and stayed out of 2 world wars and other conflicts. For Sweden to join NATO it has to change this historical neutrality and has to be convinced that the invasion of Ukraine and the immense destruction in Ukraine with over 4 million refugees mostly women and children is an event that has changed everything. If Sweden were to join NATO not much could be expected for ground forces as Sweden has a small army. Sweden also has no land border with Russia. Sweden is on the Baltic Sea which is also a border for Russia. Sweden does bring 100 modern fighter aircraft and 8 modern submarines that would secure the Baltic Sea.  If one or both countries were to join NATO this would happen by June and both countries would join NATO immediately after 30 NATO member countries approve this.  ...

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Ukraine's conflict flares up again in Feb. 2014 with the flow of Russian arms and fighters into eastern Ukraine. The U.S., Germany and France call on Russia to respect an agreement made in September 2014 to end the conflict. Russian president Putin's proposal is for a new agreement that takes into account the new territory captured by the separatists, in effect creating a new conflict zone with which to influence the government in Kiev. U.S. Secretary of State Kerry says the great technology available today makes it possible to see the flow of Russian forces and arms into eastern Ukraine, refuting Russia's claims that it is not involved. Germany's Merkel and France's Hollande plan to visit Russia to discuss the crisis with Putin as the Americans consider sending arms to the Poroshenko government in Kiev. In Brussels NATO chief Stoltenberg announces the preparations for the new Rapid Response Force to counter Russia's aggressive posture in Eastern Europe.

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It took Scholz one year after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to visit Ukraine. By comparison new German chancellor Merz visited Ukraine in three days after taking office. Merz in his first speech in parliament said- “In Ukraine, nothing less than the peace order of our entire continent is at stake. In this historic moment of decision, Europe must stand together more closely than ever before.” Starmer of UK and Macron of France had already formed close relations with Ukraine in 2025. Merz, Starmer and Macron now have a clear objective not to let Russia advance its objectives in Ukraine or Eastern Europe.  This report by NYT's Schuetze and Santora from Berlin and Kviv, shows the changing situation in the war. The war is now expected to to go on for another year as the Russian side sees its economic industrial base larger than Ukraine's industrial base letting it prevail over time. Russia has spurned the offer of US peace negotiations or tacitly agreeing to it but continuing the war with large missile attacks on Ukraine. In this situation Germany plans to help build industrial base in Ukraine for war effort and supply arms and equipment, financial help. Ukraine says it needs $30 billion to continue the war effort in 2025.   ...

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Lack of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. Russia losing huge numbers of casualties as a large part of its army is committed to the war. The sense of a war no side can win. Dysfunctional aspects of foreign policies in Europe that will cost $138 billion to $750 billion to fix by rebuilding damage in Ukraine, money that could have been used in the absence of the conflict to support the action against climate change and in development needs after the pandemic devastated economies of many countries. No country has surplus money after the pandemic- NYT reports today that China is struggling to meet the high health costs of the elderly during the pandemic. India has huge needs in transport, logistics, housing, healthcare. Both India and China lack a system of social security like that of the US and EU countries. 

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The $17 discount for Russian oil to Brent crude is a result of the president's efforts with sanctions plus tariffs on China and India to cut oil purchases from Russia. This puts a strain on Russia in financing the war with Ukraine. Bothe China and India have cut purchases of Russian oil in recent weeks and the Indian refinery at Jamnagar no longer gets Russian oil, according to recent reports. DJT was criticized for his stance on Indian tariffs as inconsistent with the agreement with China on rare earths. It now appears that China and India have both agreed to stop financing the Russian war effort with big oil purchases and are shifting it to other places such as Brazil, Guyana and Canada. India plans large oil purchases and arms purchases from the US and this is part of the trade agreement being negotiated with India. About one third of the additional 240 million barrels of oil on the seas in tankers is Russian oil being stored for lack of buyers with total oil on waters at 1.4 billion barrels. This has led to a 48% increase in tanker costs to $125,000 a day. All this makes it harder for the Russian economy to sustain the war effort as the US pushes both sides to settle the Ukraine conflict in the 28 Points Peace Plan negotiated with important Russian negotiators in Washington DC over 3 days last week. ...

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Hear the complete speech of German Chancellor Scholz to an extraordinary session of the German Parliament on DW.com. This may be the most important speech in the last 30 years of German history since reunification. An extraordinary speech that sets the tone for the new Europe that Germany leads with its partners in the European Union. Fundamentally Scholz tells the German people that Germany is fighting alongside Europe for its freedom and democracy, so that the last 30 years of peace are seen not as an exception in history. Germany will not let Putin take us back to the imperial wars of the 19th century, Putin told parliament. Scholz tells the German people sending arms to Ukraine "was the only response possible to Russian aggression." He also tells them that it was not the Russian people, it was Putin who had launched this aggression. "This is Putin's War. Putin is destroying the European security structure." "A peaceful free Europe, we will defend it." This is the way Scholz finished his speech. Scholz outlined 5 actions Germany was taking including actions on investing $100 billion in Bundeswehr armed forces, in strengthening NATO capabilities, in building up Germany's technological capabilities, in 2 huge natural gas terminals. The entire German parliament stood up to applaud for a long time as Scholz described how Germany was with the Russian people who braved arrest to protest Putin's War, and there are many, many, Russians who do not support the war. Reconciliation with Russia remains a building block of German policy he said.   ...

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Sanger and Broad report on the move by the Trump administration to go ahead with the overhaul of the U.S. nuclear deterrent,  with programs that were started in the Obama administration. With the more aggressive posture of Russia in Europe, the Trump administration is left with little scope for further advances in nuclear arms negotiations. A new technology based cruise missile system is now being built for $25 billion with contracts given to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Experts at Harvard's Belfer Center say that with the North Korean nuclear threat these programs to modernize the nuclear deterrent are getting the go ahead with little resistance. Another program modernizing the land based deterrent and replacing the Minuteman missile system is also expected to push forward at a cost of $100 billion. The Pentagon under Obama had pushed for these systems, yet there was discussion about ways to limit these programs in the hope that nuclear arms control talks could take place. The North Korean missile tests and Russia's posture have changed the discussion. By the end of the Obama's second term, a president who came into office in 2008 with hopes of nuclear weapons reduction had already lost much of the momentum he had in 2008. The situation changed with Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2015, and the North Korean long range missile test in 2017, to where the modernization of the nuclear deterrent was quietly accepted, without alternatives through negotiations. ...

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

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Norbert Rottgen, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament is realistic about the prospects of Minsk 2, after the failure of Minsk 1, which was negotiated in the Belarus capital Minsk in September 2014. The Russians have the upper hand militarily and the demarcation line moves further to the west in current negotiations in Minsk. The breakdown in Minsk 1 comes as Putin continues to support the separatists in Ukraine, who declared a Donestsk People's Republic with elections held recently, and have now taken territory to make their positions in eastern Ukraine more defensible. The war could end there with a de facto split of eastern Ukraine on the Russian side, or lead to further guessing of Russian president Putin's intentions if the conflict continues. Italy's foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, points out that arms aid by the U.S. to Ukraine would only fail as Russia could respond, and it gives the Russian president the added advantage of the narrative that the U.S. and NATO are a threat to Russia at its borders. All sides say they respect the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, but the fact remains that Ukraine is deeply divided with the eastern region bordering Russia having close ties to Russia, and the western region near Poland having strong ties to a newly emergent EU that includes much of Eastern Europe. Prudence and restraint is needed on all sides for a settlement. ...

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The US may just move on to other priorities if both Russia and Ukraine cannot come to terms on a ceasefire, says Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State. The crux of the problem from the beginning were eastern regions of Ukraine that are more Russian in culture than western Ukraine. On the Russian side it was a loss of respect from the capitalist states US, UK and Western Europe compared to its historical importance in Europe, as everything was measured in GDP terms. The last straw was NATO and Ukraine with its Russian connected history joining it. By drawing eastern Ukraine into its orbit Russia was responding to actions by US and the EU support for Kiev, ignoring Russian perspectives. On the Ukrainian side the issue came down to Ukraine being able to decide its own future. Because of corruption and mismanagement, poor governance what could have happened with a clean governance and efficient growth oriented leadership working with Russia and the EU never happened. The result was veering from a pro-Russian to a anti-Russian government following the Maidan protests in Kiev in 2013. Enter China by 2019 with support of US companies shifting almost the entire US industrial base to China. Putin was handed a rare opportunity to act with China's tacit support to push back the US and EU and their defense arm NATO. He decided to take it thinking this would end quickly with Ukraine capitulating. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russian youth in the land war led to Russia getting entrenched into this war. As has happened before Russia with it's greater population and resources has prevailed in Eastern Europe over centuries of warfare. This is the situation in 2025 when DJT seeks to end the war and bring peace to Ukraine. ...

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"Having a country invading their neighbor with impunity that is a dire message to the rest of the world, and we are not making the mistakes of the past." 

Macron speaks of Russian threats to other places, to Moldova and Romania. 

Macron shows a chart of Russian rearmament with increases from 1.2 million men in the army to 1.5 million  and 1200 military aircraft to 1500 aircraft.

'Peace cannot come at any price, by abandoning Ukraine, the collapse of Ukraine."

"We have seen this happen in the past. Who can forget the invasion began in 2014, there was a ceasefire that was agreed to in Minsk and that the same Russia did not keep the ceasefire."

"We cannot take them at their word. Ukraine has a right for peace and security. It is in our interest. And we are working with our European allies."

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Comments in the WSJ on the Trump - Putin meeting in Helsinki, and what the U.S. president should watch for in conversations and negotiations.  It says Mr. Putin's top priority is to shore up his prestige at home, to enhance his political standing. It says Mr. Trump is intent on showing the two countries can get along well but is skeptical of Mr. Putin's intentions on arms control and other issues. The efforts to increase the discord between the European Union and the U.S. are seen by the WSJ as Mr.Putin's effort to erode the will of the West to add to its capabilities. That any American president has to be wary of this effort especially in light of recent events.   From Mr. Putin's point of view the Russian economy is now in much better shape than when the "liberals" were running the country with a collapse of the Russian currency. The need to restore Russian prestige. That the expansion of the EUropean Union and NATO to the borders of Russia, and the situation in first Georgia and then Ukraine, required Russia to respond to protect its defense from foreign threats.This led to wars and intervention in Georgia and then Ukraine as part of Russian policy in response to advances of the West to its borders, and support of proxy governments in the Middle East. The response to economic sanctions was to turn to influence elections in the U.S. and Europe and the U.S. to soften sanctions. On the issue of sanctions this has not happened and the goal of Russia is to mitigate the effect of sanctions. ...

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Chinese views on the India war of 1962 are shown at the Beijing Military Museum in a display effort "One Hundred Questions on the China-India Border Self-Defense Counterattack."  China's PLA on its 95th anniversary looks at the 33 day war and calls it a "counterattack." It also says China withdrew because its goals were accomplished of getting back the territory it lost since August 1959 to India, that on the Indian side "the decision making was in the hands of civilian officials who did not understand the military at all," and called it "chaotic." It also brings up the international situation that Russia supported both China and India in the conflict and India had the US on its side. It says PLA withdrew because of the difficulty of supplying the military in the Arunachal region at a great distance from China particularly after the famine that resulted from the Great Leap Forward. Today there is a clear chain of command and joint work by the Indian Air force and the Army, infrastructure to support mountain operations being built at rapid speed, and building of modern defense manufacturing capabilities for the airforce and army as shown at the Defense Expo in Gandhinagar, Gujarat, this week.  One of the first aspects of the border that one sees in the region is how close it is to large population cities and towns in India and how remote it is from large population towns and cities in China. In this sense China after the experience with Russian conflict before 1900, later a large Japanese invasion in 1931and 1937 appears to have responded to its period of semi-colonialism with an aggressive policy of extending its frontiers to regions that were throughout history acting as large buffers between India and China- such being the case of Tibet which was occupied in the 1950's leading to the war with India and a border dispute that had never existed before in history. Other aspects today are that in 1962 the PLA had fought the war against the Japanese and the war agains the Americans in Korea all within a 20 year period. In 2022 China has focused for 50 years on modernizing its economy. The supply chain in the Ukraine war showed shortcomings in the Russian army, and the difficulties of supplying forces at great distances. There is also the question of morale when it is about  miles of icy terrain at heights over 10,000 feet, thousands of miles away from major population cities and towns in China- for reasons of Russian and Japanese semicolonialism behaviour not to be found in regions that had never seen large armies in history such as Tibet or Arunachal or the Himalayan border regions. The distances tell much of the story- the distance from Shanghai, Shenzen or Beijing, to Tibet is over 4000 kilometers and the border region with India additional thousands of kilometers over some of the most rugged terrain on earth with only remote mountain communities existing in the most difficult environments.       ...

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...