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German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

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Most of it is because of Donald Jr. and his affinity for Vance, a bonding that developed once the former president left office. Donald Jr. championed Vance choice over Burghum and Rubio. For the former president the choice was natural because his style fitted that of Vance of saying directly with candor what he thought. Vance's criticism that a second Trump administration focused on tax cuts and not investing in the American economy would not lead to economic growth still rings true as shown in the adjoining article on the US dollar, on inflation moving up with tariffs and job growth affected by lack of the government investing in the economy and American manufacturing. Even in the Depression years Republicans stuck to their idea that governments should stay out, are they likely to change that today? Vance's criticism was made before he became senator, in 2016. It would lead to another lost decade for the American economy and people, and put America just where the Tories have left Britain today so that Keir Starmer's Labour cannot bring immediate relief to the British people struggling with cost of living in 2025, with the mess the Tories have left behind.  ...

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Dipti Deshpande writes in the Economic Times that how India's economy recovers depends a lot on how well the government tackles the problems of vaccine supplies, vaccination staff and incentives for vaccination to the public, vaccination logistics, and vaccination skepticism. Vaccination plays a large role in the reduction of fear and permits resumption of normal activity as seen in the US, UK and France. Government education of the public on vaccine safety should be conducted on an organized basis across the country starting now for the gaol of vaccinating the entire population by December 2021. In the 200 days remaining in 2021 the government would have to administer over 1000 million doses or at the rate of 5 million doses a day just for the single dose population, with the second dose meaning additional supplies and logistical effort, organized health staffing, all to be organized.  The thrust of this article is that the economy and especially laggard sectors such as services would gain a fully powered recovery if the problems of vaccine supplies and vaccination drives are resolved early with preparation, lessons learned, and proactive action all taking place immediately. The period after the decline in cases to below 50,000 a day which is fast approaching for India is one that needs to be used to take deep yogic breaths, and prepare the Indian mind for the next challenge for government and nation.   ...

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Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer interview by NYT's Lulu Navarro looks at the swing state of Michigan and its popular governor. Asked about president president Biden's 3 trillion dollar investments in Manufacturing, in Chips and Science, in Infrastructure, Whitmer says the public is still just coming out of the pandemic and has seen only some of the beneficial effects of this program of massive investment in the US economy. She says it is similar to what she heard from Michiganders which amounted to "Governor Fix the Dam Roads." She says the former president Trump lacks any such vision for the US economy, and for the future. Of the present time Whitmer says that the pandemic has taken a toll in people's lives, people are stressed out, and just hanging in there trying to pay the grocery bills, get the kids to school, and show up at work. They have hardly the time to figure out what the CHIPS Act means. Whitmer is in her second term as governor and comes from the western part of the state around Grand Rapids which is traditionally Republican. In her election for governor she was able to win with good margins in this western part of the State even as a Democrat. This interview show Whitmer wanting to be able to work with Republicans in the best interests of the state and the Nation. ...

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Macron as president of France does not agree to cohabitation appointing 4 prime ministers over 4 years who are replaced or lose public confidence. The last Bayrou is an experinced politician who tried to get austerity cuts including eliminating 2 public holidays. The Socialist bloc led by Melenchon and Le Pen's Marie Pen bring down Bayrou in a no confidence vote. Following the election of the National Assembly Macron had an opportunity he missed of cohabitation with the Socialists Party bloc and letting its leader Melenchon or someone else in the Socialist Bloc, a more acceptable face to the Macronists form a new government. Instead he has weakened France and it's economy by taking a rigid approach. This is a reversal of his posture during his entry into politics which depended on the Socialists leader president Hollande accepting Macron into his government as Minister for the economy. Macron formed his own party with deft moves to retire the Gaullist and Socialist parties that have ruled France since 1945. Winning the presidency once and barely winning the second time after protests by Yellow Vests on the cost of living and an imperial presidency, the very same problem that Nicholas Sarkozy had of not being close to the people and their concerns about migrants, cost of living and the deindustrialized parts of France, neglect of farmers and rural areas also seen in the US. With this France is in a bit of drift with younger voters looking elsewhere for the future. ...

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Mortgage and other loans taken out at lower interest rates, before the US central bank the Fed started raising rates  in March 2022, is a big part of US household debt. This fact is helping to soften the impact of the Fed's increase of rates by 5% over 16 months. The increase in rates helps savers and retirees earn more on savings kept in CD's. The cut in inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3% in July 2022 helps increase the purchasing power of money. It also helps keep the US economy stronger than other world economies, with the Biden economic plan of increased business investment underpinning strong economic growth of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Wars are not a distraction or cost burden for the economy, with Biden shutting down 2 wars in the Middle East and South Asia. Lessons were learned and Biden has been resolute about this, also giving a singular focus to his plan for rebuilding and renewing America on multiple fronts, infrastructure, fighting climate change, inflation, business investment, and fair taxation so that the fruits of labor are shared equally by all of America's people. Doing this required a clear vision, resolute purpose, and a path to action for each step. Biden has done that in ways that only a few presidents have done in the past. In doing this he has shown that America stands for hope and a better future, a land as he never fails to repeat, a land of possibilities. ...

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A Trump-Vance nomination with its huge tariffs inside a Republican shell with its preference for tax cuts is with a large degree of certainty likely to put America further behind China, slipping even further by a decade. And slipping in renewable energy and in meeting the aspirations of ordinary Americans. Most of the public does not realize that Trump-Vance 60% tariffs and Republican preference for tax cuts over infrastructure spending would create inflation and lack of growth in a Trump-Vance second term. Things would get worse because of the contradictions existing in the choice of tariff preferring Trump in a Republican party that sees tax cuts not infrastructure spending -even when desperately needed- as the answer to every economic problem. Without a clear policy of making the trillion dollar investments in the US economy, in manufacturing, in renewable energy, in chips and science, as it has under Biden the US under Trump-Vance policies would have two serious problems- first it would revive inflation. 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% tariffs on other nations proposed by Trump-Vance would increase inflation. In the absence of the infrastructure investment that Biden has put in place it would create both a lack of growth for the jobs missing that come from infrastructure that is badly needed in a aging dilapidated infrastructure economy, and the inflation that the high tariffs would engineer. The benefits would not be great if China chooses to find other ways to conduct business and continues to keep its currency at levels that promote its exports. Even today Chinese products enter the US through other countries or when China builds factories in the US as Japan has done. The Republican aversion to tackling Chinese industrial challenges in the same way that China does by actively supporting American manufacturers would give China another decade of advantage as America slips even further behind in chips, science and manufacturing. This is the real problem in mixing Trump-Vance to the Republican philosophies on the economy which are not right for this point in time whatever their merits may have been in the 1980's when America was the industrial leader in the world.   ...

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The Vice Chief of the Indian Army explains in detail how the scheme that is rolled out for Agnipath is a pilot project and how the lessons learned will be incorporated over the next 5 years. He says the recruits leave with something like 24 lakhs rupees for a second innings at age 22, with the opportunity to get 13 lakhs in preferential basis loans in government assistance to start an enterprise. Others could choose to enhance their education and go on to get degrees under preferential educational setup. The idea is not to set them up for life but get them off to a good start as they are only about 22 years and with special technical skills acquired during their 4 years in the armed services. Technical skills acquired in the airforce could be even more advanced. Private industry in an India almost twice the size of the economy that exists today and the fastest growing economy in the world would easily absorb 30,000 of such highly trained disciplined people in the scheme who leave. The US GI Bill and other similar programs for the military have shown that this works and private industry is eager to take in these people on a preferential basis. These in fact have proven to be even more attractive opportunities using the example of the US experience than a government job. Lt. Gen. Raju says about the All India regiments replacing the homogenous units of the past. The Rastriya Rifles  and similar units in the Army have shown that the bonding happens for people from different parts of the country. He could have said that it is seen in the cricket teams where the bonding is between people from different regions and places. These units have performed very well says Raju in the LAC, in Kashmir, in border areas and in other situations. ...

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There are four pillars to this fight Biden and Harris are now waging. Biden tackled infrastructure by getting the Congress to pass the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act to put trillions of dollars into rebuilding aging and dilapidated American roads, bridges, airports, ports, rural internet. This also tackled Manufacturing and factory jobs in the US neglected for 3 decades, the second pillar. The third pillar for Biden was getting American wages that had fallen behind to catch up by supporting labor in wage negotiations.  Something was missing as Cost of Living for housing, childcare, remained. This is where Harris has stepped in with Jerome Powell of the Fed. Powell cutting interest rates to make housing more accessible and Harris putting in $25,000 for first time homeowners for a down payment, build 3 million new homes, $6000 for childcare for parents, and $50,000 for small businesses to start. Specific programs at specific targets in FDR type "bold, persistent experimentation" activity. Put together the four pillars mean giving strength to the US economy which Powell says is "in solid shape." ...

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This report in the WSJ provides details on the groundwork that was laid by the Trump administration as it worked to find a solution to the problems facing Venezuela with refugees and economic crisis, and months of protests. The plans were set in the days before Nicholas Maduro took office for the second term as president. The night before Juan Guaido, head of the National Assembly, declared himself president, U.S. vice president Mike Pence stated that the U.S. would support him if he took the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in the Venezuelan Constitution that makes the head of the National Assembly take the office of president if the existing president is declared illegitimate taking office unlawfully. About 60 nations did not recognize the elections that gave Maduro a second term. On Jan 2 Mr Trump who feels deeply about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and rising poverty, the suffering of the Venezuelan people, met with presidents of Brazil and Colombia. Colombian president Ivan Duque and Trump hinted at a plan to cooperate to help people fleeing Venezuela and respecting its democratic heritage. Mr Pompeo spoke to allies of the U.S. The National Assembly laid out its plans on Jan 15, for using a constitutional mechanism that allows the head of the Assembly to lead an interim government till new elections are held if the existing president is declared illegitimate. A leading Republican senator of Cuban origin Mr. Rubio supported the move. On the eve of protests in Venezuela Rubio and two other senators from Florida met Mr. Trump and Pence at the White House. Also present were Bolton, Pompeo, Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Mr. Trump then decided to do it. He placed a call to Mr. Guiado  to tell him that if the National Assembly invoked Article 233 the U.S. president would back him.  The U.S. believes the rank and file in the military are with the opposition even though its leaders back Maduro. After the U.S. action, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, backed the move for an interim government. The European Union called for free and credible elections. Russia and Mexico supported Maduro.  The State Department instructed the U.S. Federal Reserve about Guiado government as the sole representative for Venezuelan assets in banks. Sanctions could be placed on Venezuelan oil exports as backup efforts proceed to support the interim government. ...

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U.S. GDP growth is 1.5% for the second quarter after 2% growth in the first quarter. The slower growth shows that much of the productive capacity of the U.S. economy is not being utilized. See the graph showing the growth during the recovery after the recession of 2009 compared to the recessions in 2001, 1991, 1980, 1975, 1970. The curve is much flatter this time. Every recovery except the recovery in 1980 shows a faster rebound. Economic recoveries have taken longer over time since the postwar boom period.

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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On the first day of the new vaccine policy on June 21, 2021, India has vaccinated 6.9 million people. India has now vaccinated 287 million people out of a population of 1.2 billion. This is a race against time as new variants caused the second wave of coronavirus in April and May of 2021 with cases peaking at over 300,000 a day.  The shortcoming of the old vaccine policy are being corrected. The entire vaccine supply process and the vaccination drive is now being handled by the federal government. Earlier during the second wave vaccine supply and the vaccination drives were under an arrangement with no clear overall responsibility. States shared responsibility with the federal government and target vaccination goals were missed, vaccine supplies were inadequate.  A similar arrangement in Germany failed and Germany's vaccination supplies were inadequate and vaccination drive stalled. This caused immense frustration in Germany in April-May 2021. Germany's troubled history before World War II led to a reliance on decentralized actions, and state governments imposed different rules in a relatively small country compared to India. This was corrected with the federal government taking on the entire responsibility for the vaccine supply and vaccination drive leading to good results today in vaccines. With India's huge population and political process of different state governments, some lacking experience in administration for a complex process, and others failing to coordinate well with the federal government, the lack of overall responsibility at the federal government posed serious risks of missing targets for vaccines and letting the coronavirus wreck the economy and public confidence. Complex negotiations with other governments in Europe and the US for vaccine manufacture in India could only be handled at the federal level. The resources and planning at the federal level were already in place in India for infrastructure and other projects, experience and setting targets in that area at the federal level could now be transferred to this task in vaccines. Somewhere in the range of 8 million vaccines a day need to be reached and sustained from August to December 2021 for India to reach the goal of vaccinated all 1.2 billion people ahead of any further attack from a third or fourth wave, say experts. This is not a choice for the federal government, it is simply something India has got to accomplish to be a healthy nation that can grow with neighbors in Europe, the US, Australia and Japan and build confidence in its Asia-Pacific region. The entire Asia-Pacific region has a lot resting on how well India achieve this goal and moves on to the next phase of assisting its neighbors in the region.  ...

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The story of a company and its founder in Seattle who realized that $40,000 a year is not much to make a decent living in Seattle- that people had to work 2 jobs. In the process hurting the productivity at the company, with employees putting in less of the kind of energy and motivated work that helps companies grow. The founder decides to cut back on his own expenses and extravagant lifestyle to make sure his employees are paid a decent wage. He did the math and decided on $70,000 Five years later sales of the company have doubled. It is a payments company and the payments processed at Gravity doubled from $3.8 billion a year to $10.2 billion. The number employees have doubled. For employee productivity it mattered that they were not doing 2 jobs and worrying about credit card debt. Now 70% of employees have paid off debt. The amount of money they put into pension funds has doubled. And instead of 1% about 10% own their own homes. This suggests the old culture was bad for the economy as well as employees. More housing demand, more homes built, more cars sold, more money for pension funds to manage, all translate into a better performing economy and economic growth. Simply stated the old culture has put an artificial ceiling on economic growth and worse set a low bar fro productivity in companies. Healthier employees who could spend the time doing second jobs doing exercize instead and staying fit would also bring down the money spent on healthcare.  Ultimately it us about good common sense, and honest thinking about what works and does not work. The old culture simply fails good common sense. ...

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Upward mobility in China was weak and income growth for average workers sluggish during the years before the coronavirus outbreak. In this sense China is similar to the U.S. and Europe where upward mobility gains after the second world war were lost in the last 30 years partly from the loss of manufacturing to China. It is much worse now as the effects of the coronavirus lead to drops of as much as a third in income for ordinary workers. Lower income workers, the vast majority of Chinese numbering hundreds of millions now suffer from lost work or diminished wages. Small businesses cannot afford to pay the salaries paid before and as workers dip into savings or increase borrowing the retail spending is taking a hit. As a result economists see a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower incomes for the hundreds of millions of ordinary workers in construction and smaller businesses. Some small businesses could just close down because of weak demand affecting the economy over the long term. Before the coronavirus China went over three decades from being a Communist country with relatively equal distribution of wealth but lack of growth and technological development to a capitalist country with the structure of state control of the economy from the Communist period. The result is that 1% of the people control 33% of the wealth and the bottom 25% having 1% of the wealth, according to a 2015 Peking University study. China's president Xi Jinping, head of the Communist party, tried to reverse some of these trends by attacking corruption and making changes that began the task of reversing decades of unequal distribution of wealth under state sponsored capitalist growth. Investments were made in rural medical care, infrastructure and basic services. This did not have much impact because much of the pattern of growth over three decades continues including the housing bubble.  With coronavirus the trend is set for even more unequal distribution of wealth as many workers at the bottom half of the population in incomes either lose work, or see drop in incomes as businesses that hire them struggle from shoe factories to other retail business. Reports of informal economy and street markets in Chengdu in western China and bringing this part of the economy back by the state are effort to get people work in other ways. Researchers estimate that China's bottom 60% of household in incomes lost about $200 billion in income in the first half of 2020. In May premier Li Keqiang said 600 million people in China earn only about $140 a month. Many who lost income or jobs do not have support from the government as China lacks a program of comprehensive unemployment insurance as in Europe and the U.S. to help people get over bad times. 300 million migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to loss of income and dipping into savings.   ...

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Andrew Kramer reports from the front near the city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine with signs of a breakdown in the second Minsk accord. Following the breakdown of the Minsk agreement of September 2014 by February 2015, with fighting around the town of Debaltseve, leaders of Russia, Germany, France and the separatist eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk met again in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb 11, 2015. This led to the second Minsk Agreement and a ceasefire. This agreement called for release of prisoners, a zone to separate the soldiers on each side, constitutional reforms for decentralization in Ukraine giving autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Minsk II agreement is under strain as the economic blockade by Kiev, and separatist violations of the ceasefire, have created a tense situation by June 2015. The second Minsk agreement was reached under pressure from the U.S. saying it would send arms to the government in Kiev if Russia continued to send troops into Ukraine, and Germany seeking to avoid a further escalation of the conflict. In the background the U.S. and the EU continued economic sanctions on Russia, and the Russian economy suffered from a decline in oil prices as a result of Saudi pricing decisions....

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Speaking at a fireside chat at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman describes the task of lifting hundreds of millions from poverty in India done over the last 10 years. When China did this for about 400 million people by 2000 it had the support of the people of the US and Europe and the US opened its doors to favor China in its supply chain. How will the US and European Union respond to the same situation in India? This was accomplished in the US and Europe by the 1930's building on the work in the 1900 period. "We are reaching near saturation in providing the basic facilities to the people of the country. Have we removed these many number of people from poverty and lifted them out." "And that is to give them some good house to live in which is made of concrete and not of thatched roof with toilets in them, with drinking water reaching them through pipes, electricity, and a good road, not just the village, but also to streets in the village, and then connect them to the nearest highway; connect them with good transport facility and so on. And financial inclusion so that each member of the household has a bank account and they get every such benefit, which has to reach them, but directly into their bank account rather than through a middle agency. On skilling people "We are now focusing very much on skilling people, each according to their level. Skilling centers are now spread all over the country. The gradation of the skilling varies according to the individuals. Businesses and private sector entrepreneurs are also tied into it so that there is a link between the kind of training businesses want and actually those who are getting the training so that immediately they can get recruited. There will be a lot of skilling emphasis. On expanding the formalization of the economy getting rid of "the grey layer" India's digitization programme will be going on at full throttle and it'll cover most aspects of our lives. Today it covers health, education, and financial transactions. We expect it to move on to other areas as well so that there is greater ease of living and transparency, the economy gets even more formal. And therefore with that, you find  the economy gets its full strength coming on board, rather than having a second layer, which remains in the grey area. ...

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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Prime minister Modi's address in Hindi to the nation on May 12 on "Atman Nirbhar Bharat" (self reliant India) as India looks ahead to a situation beyond the coronavirus. What would the economy look like as India moves forward? He says the emphasis will be on planning for the need for land, labor, liquidity, and laws to develop the Indian economy. A bold package of economic action for an investment of 20 lakh crore rupees or $280 billion was announced with details to be provided later. The basic philosophy of the next move forward was what the prime minister concentrated his speech on. Modi says there are 5 pillars for the Atman Nirbhar Bharat, or Self Reliant India. The first action not to go for incremental change- go instead for a quantum leap, be bold. This applies to both technology and investment and creating an environment where results can be achieved. Second action to make the kind of infrastructure that would set a new standard in the world. Third a "sabhi ke sapno ke aadhar," taking everyone along, be technology driven. Third action celebrate and build on India's vibrant demography, once seen as a weakness this will be turned into a strength. Fifth action be Demand driven - "demand or supply chain puri samtha ke saman karne ki jaruat che." The demand and supply chain  should be taken good care of. That also means be local and local manufacturing. Be vocal for local is the new message said Modi, because this is what worked and is saving us in the pandemic. As external supply chains failed countries in Europe and North America, it is the local supply chain for medicine, health care equipment, and food supplies, local technology for citizen id and bank accounts for direct deposit, agricultural supplies, strong and large national postal and rail networks and millions of employees spanning the country in all directions, that have proved of amazing value in this crisis. "Is local ne bhi bachaya, ham sabki jinnadari hai," - the local saved us and is everyone's responsibility.   ...

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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Russia experts Robert Nurick of the Atlantic Council, and Graham Allison of the Belfer Center of International Affairs at Harvard, see a sea change in attitudes to Russia following the interventionist policies of president Putin. The Obama administration will now focus on limiting Russian influence for the remaining two years of Obama's second term. There is a loss of faith in Putin on the part of Obama and close advisors. Russia is seen as a regional power, and the Ukraine crisis is seen as having a serious impact on the Russian economy through decline in trade, foreign investment and capital outflows. Russia is a regional power because it is not the same as the old Soviet Union, it is much smaller, with a declining population, and dependent on oil revenues, and in this sense not the Russia U,S, president Truman and Kennan faced during the Cold War. Obama advisors see Putin's actions as counterproductive for Russia, as the economy is now seen as contracting in 2014, making its actions in Syria, and in Ukraine, unwise foreign policy moves that hurts Russia's economy and future prosperity. Democratically elected leaders in Turkey and Russia with control over the media and shutting down the opposition using control of the judicial process, have shortchanged democratic ideals, and in the process concentrated powers in one leader. This creates risks of arbitrary exercize of power without the checks and balances that are built into a truly functioning democracy, with foreign policy errors eventually leading to a resolution of the conflicts created as these policies are increasingly called into question. Putin and Erdogan were reelected because of economic growth- a contractionary economy or steep declines in growth put everything at risk. A footnote on Kennan, American diplomat and linguist, is appropriate. A quick reading of Wikipedia's excellent account of Kennan will show that Kennan was in favor of a nuanced approach to Russia based on changing conditions. He observed that policies that were seen as anti-Russian actually helped Russian leaders throughout history solidify autocratic type rule, which actually hurts Russia's normal evolution and development. Normal development and evolution similiar to ways Germany and other nations left behind Prussian history and traditions for a open, free society, and in the ways even the U.S. left behind older practices such as slavery in the south and limited representation democracy. In fairness to Kennan it should be said that containment of the Cold War was more a Truman-Acheson doctrine- continued under Eisenhower by Dulles-Nitze, and under Kennedy by Rusk-McNamara- which has roots in Soviet intentions of destabilizing war ravaged western Europe starting with Greece, following similiar efforts in Eastern Europe. Truman was right in aiding Greece, but the U.S. needed to be aware of changing conditions and not take a rigid stance, and get locked into supporting client states just because they were "our guys," a lesson Kennan emphasized throughout his life. Putin and Erdogan use appeals to Russian and Turkish nationalism to improve electoral support and stifle free expression of ideas necessary for growth in any society. This also provides a way to have a discussion with our German friends on engagement and economic relationships, without the rigid outlook of a Wilsonian or Acheson-Dulles kind. ...

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BMW's first mass production electric car the i3 will go on sale inthe U.S. in the second quarter of 2014, priced at $41,350. It is a city car with a range of 100 miles from one charge. BMW will launch a i8 in 2014. The i8 is a super sports car with high fuel economy. A electric motor drives the front wheels and a 3 cylinder gasoline engine drives rear wheels. BMW's CEO Reithofer has increased spending on R&D so that it can meet the 30% of automobiles that have to be hybrids or electric vehicles by 2025 for BMW to meet higher European auto emissions standards. R&D spending was up 17% in 2012 to 9.2 billion euros, and capital spending up 42%.

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...