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A great transformation is taking place for 172 million people -after the grueling experience of pandemic followed by effects of Ukraine war, and climate change- in building external resilience. The quick IMF action in Bangladesh in contrast to Sri Lanka. After taking in the shock of pandemic and the war in Ukraine Bangladesh faced large drops in remittances and in export revenues. Added to that problems in foreign exchange reserve management and exchange rate management. By getting immediate access of aid from IMF $4.7 billion and additional assistance from India Bangladesh is now in a position where in less than a year it has rebounded with current account surplus reaching $2 billion in the first half of the 2023-2024 fiscal year, as reported by Xinhua. Increasing productivity, education of labor force, increasing female participation in the workforce, social investment in economy, will give Bangladesh a chance to reach from LDC to lower middle income status by 2031.   ...

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This report in WSJ cites the PM's office saying a tax cut just when tourism revenue slowed with the start of the pandemic reduced Sri Lankan government annual revenues by 800 billion rupees. The combined impact of the tax cut with the pandemic relief measures and drop in tourism revenues widened the budget deficit from 9.6% of GDP to 12.2% of GDP in 2020. PM Wickremasinghe has increased VAT from 8% to 12% to generate 65 billion rupees. And an additional 52 billion rupees from increasing corporate tax from 24% to 30%. The ill timed tax cuts and mismanagement of finances are at the roots of the economic crisis.

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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The influence of regional political parties in India continues as the Congress party depends on the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh led by Mulam Singh Yadav for its majority in parliament in 2013. This follows the withdrawal of support first of the party of Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal in 2012 on retail foreign investment issue, and the withdrawal of support of the DMK party in Tamilnadu state over the Sri Lankan issue in 2013. Not only are the regional political parties based in a particular state, they are also dominated by political personalities, such as that of Yadav in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Banerjee in W. Bengal, and Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu. Tamilnadu is in the south with a language Tamil of Dravidian origin, and W. Bengal is in the northeast near the Burmese and Bangladesh border with its own language Bengali of very different origin and completely different script. The regional parties have little in common. Some like the DMK in Tamilnadu are small parties with 18 member in parliament. Congress coalition government has 230 members and needs 270 for a parliamentary majority....

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A whole range of issues can be seen in the debt crises in developing countries. The margin for error shrinks with poor governance, lack of honest assessment and transparency for finances, wars and conflicts within or outside the countries, living beyond their means, lack of focus on development, infrastructure that is unproductive or unaffordable including some Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure at higher interest rates. Countries that are dependent on overseas remittances, tourism, that were hit hard by the pandemic have seen their finances further weakened reducing the margin for error even more to the point that the smallest tipping point can lead to huge crises. Once the finances are weak all it takes is an external tipping point that creates serious crisis. The war in Ukraine with shortages of wheat, fertilizer and skyrocketing oil prices acted as that tipping point. Because this was a major blow the crises have a level of magnitude that is more than a payments crisis. One sees this in South Asia in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and in the Middle East for countries such as Egypt and Tunisia shown in this WSJ report. It is now not simply a crisis but a crisis of great magnitude because in the case of Sri Lanka and Pakistan this WSJ report says that both countries foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to the point where they can pay for only one or two months of imports according to central bank data, analysts and IMF. This crisis has affected countries that were seeing steady foreign investment such as Turkey for decades, then a sharp falloff in foreign investment with a change in the climate for foreign investment. The crisis has taken the form of high inflation, significant depreciation of currency that makes imports costlier so that shrinking revenues from loss of remittances, tourism, or other sources will now have less value in supporting import needs. Lack of a credible path can delay setting a path out of the crisis. The $1.5 billion fuel and electricity subsidy made by the prime minister of Pakistan in late February was done without IMF approval leading to the IMF program having to be renegotiated. Lack of national political and cultural consensus on a solution simply makes it that much more difficult to find the way through it. In this regard South Korea was able to tackle the 1997 financial payments crisis effectively because of a national consensus. The situation in Egypt- Egypt has borrowed $20 billion from the IMF since 2016., placing it second to Argentina in aid from IMF since 1980's.  In 2020 and 2021 Egypt' government spent more than 40% of its revenue servicing its debt, and is forecast to do the same in 2022. The situation in Tunisia- A shortage of sugar, flour, and other critical supplies, and government delaying wage payments to civil servants. The government got $400 million in financing last month from the World Bank and hopes to secure a lifeline from the IMF. Compared to the period between the 2 World Wars the two bright spots are China and India where lessons of the past of civil wars, religious or political conflict, and poor governance, lack of knowledge of how the western countries industrialized and modernized, was replaced with the conviction that drives patient effort, courage in the face of adversity, honesty, and humility to learn including from western countries that have forged their own path through the same difficult road. The most difficult experiences have offered lessons which were learned- for South Korea the Korean War and invasion from the north, China the civil war and Japanese invasion, for India the partition of India and million of refugees. Stagnation from stumbled efforts also taught lessons, the Great Leap Forward in China, the License Raj with corruption in India.       ...

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US president Biden authorizes $350 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. Western leaders now believe that NATO countries are at risk if they do not help stop the invasion, as it now appears that Russia seeks to restore a sphere of influence across Eastern Europe that existed under the Soviet Union. In 1956 Soviet tanks entered Budapest, Hungary. A situation reminiscent of that in Hungary is now taking place in Ukraine in 2022. Earlier the Russian view of Ukraine neutrality was accepted by western leaders- the situation has changed during the last week, as it is now perceived that Russia seeks to change the situation in Eastern Europe. This completely alters western Europe's and America's view of the situation in Ukraine. All this has happened in a matter of days, and in a few weeks. On the Russian side the invasion is not popular with street protests in Moscow and people on the street skeptical about the invasion and its objectives. The view is beginning to emerge that this invasion only breaks the fraternal ties between the Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian peoples that have existed for centuries. In this sense the politics and governments of the present are not relevant as much as the shared history. Ironically it is this shared history that Mr. Putin seemed to want to assert. Yet it ignored the fact that Ukraine also has a shared history with Poland and the Baltic countries and the desire for a different system of government is common to all the people's of the world. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India; UK and Scotland or Ireland; Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Canada, Britain and the US; Hungary, Austria and Germany; all have a shared history yet the people in each country at different periods of history have made their own choices and decided what they would do as independent countries.  ...

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Debt of poor countries is a serious problem in 2022. Debt owed to foreign lenders by low and middle income countries increased by 6.9% on average to $9.3 trillion in 2021, faster than the 5.3% in 2020, according to World Bank estimates. As a result the percentage of the poorest countries in debt distress or high risk of debt distress increased from 15% in 2015 to 60% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.  The pandemic has clearly worsened the situation for countries in weak economic situations in 2019. A country is in debt distress when it is unable to fulfill its financial obligations and debt restructuring is required. Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan are recent examples of countries undergoing serious debt restructuring after falling behind in debt payments. Rising interest rates, inflation, and weak growth lower government revenues and make it harder to make the debt payments to service the debt. A list of weaker economies shown in this WSJ report where interest rates have risen are Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in Europe, Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela in Latin America, Ethiopia, Ghana and Mozambique in Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Asia. Mismanagement of the economies, overborrowing, not taking corrective action during a period before the crisis, corruption, wars or drought, factors affecting tourism or remittances from overseas, are some of the factors leading to debt distress. ...

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Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

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The Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities in the UK in its report published on March 29, 2021, says Britain has become a more open society and that racial inequalities in education and employment have narrowed. Bangladeshi, Indian and African backgrounds children are performing better across eight GCSE's using scores on average, than white British children, an amazing story. It says "this should be regarded as a model for white majority countries."  Much of this could be the result of strong families, ethic of hard work, help from the idea that hardship brings virtue, and single minded determination of families and children to excel in studies, showing that obstacles such as language and other economic barriers can not only be overcome but actually be a motivational influence. This should translate into more success in the workplace. The report says this is happening in the workplace with diversity in the professions of medicine, law and teaching, and shrinking pay gap with white population. Criticism persists and is true for the top of the public and private sectors, the report says. Yet it should be uppermost in mind that in terms of number of people benefitted it is important- that the process be strong at the ground level so that the talented individual can then move to the higher ranks. To do this the report says British employers should go for more "evidence-based alternatives" than let "unconscious bias training" prevail without quite realizing that this is happening in the absence of initiative. Much of what happens in Britain is also true for the US and other places with British based educational systems such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. In South Asia there are disadvantaged minorities because of old caste based inequalities and bias. There the problem also has its perverse forms in which politically motivated moves to assign quotas are made before the emphasis on education and investment in education for disadvantaged minorities. This is leading to a general decline in education in government or public schools and reliance on private sector schools to provide quality education. A process seen in Latin American countries such as Mexico and Brazil that also involves public sector unions and their control of who gets hired and how. The result is that huge problems not entirely visible like an iceberg that cripples ships or economies is happening in these countries, and the focus is almost entirely on the disparities in British schools where progress is actually being made with results, intentions backed by will to accomplish. ...

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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The Sri Lankan economy, jobs and growth are affected by economic relations with India, loans and assistance from India, and from investment from India in the 2025 period. USAID plays very little part in jobs and growth. This is true of other countries.  In the past the USAID was seen as part of the activity of the State Department overseas yet kept separate so that aid would not be based on US diplomatic activity. Over time it became a place which supported what critics call bureaucrats pet projects in developing countries. Many developing nations have advanced in their development and no longer need USAID projects, this includes India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Brazil, Chile, and parts of Africa. Because development aid was at one time critical as in the period when John Kennedy came to office in the Cold War with the Soviet Union, many nations in Asia and Africa were just becoming independent there was a sense from that time that its acitvity and budget was somehow both independent of the State Department and sacrosanct. As a result it became a target of critics and did not advance the US interests overseas as the US Information Service, the VOA Voice Of America and other agencies have done. A country's development no longer depended on USAID. Why does it need to be separate when it should advance US goals and interests around the world which are benevolent- consider that it is the US that helped build up the Chinese economy and still provides it with a large market. ...

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Prime minister Modi's visit to the US comes at a time when US president Biden is eager to show the US is fully engaged in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies in the Quad 4 countries- Australia, Japan and India. The recently announced Aukus defense agreement brought together 2 members of the Quad 4 the US and Australia, plus the UK. Aukus is designed to strengthen US presence as a naval power in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indian and Pacific oceans around India, Southeast Asia, China, and across the Pacific. After a futile engagement in Afghanistan the US is reorganizing its presence where it is strongest- in the oceans. In a way that Britain once did in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, the US is dominant in the high seas. US naval power far exceeds that of all navies in the world combined. This is meant to reassure India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and Japan, which together have close to twice the population of China, that the US has not diminished its presence in any way from that it had in the 1950's following the Second World War. With this new framework India enters discussions that will focus on health to deal with the pandemic and its after effects, with security and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, with trade, technology, new supply chain manufacturing structure in which India plays a key role. With this new focus and clearing past engagements made by other US  presidents, including some mistaken policies, the US emerges as a new force in the Indian ocean, China seas and Pacific ocean region.  On September 23 Modi meets Tim Cook for what could be new supply chain arrangements that Apple could be preparing as it and other US corporations build new supply chain structures to rebuild US manufacturing technologies capabilities that were lost to China over the period 2000-2020. During that period manufacturing technology knowhow was shifted out of the US in a mistaken policy that assumed design and invention were sufficient for the US to keep. The first step in this direction was a change of CEO's at Intel Corp with US president Biden pushing for new US technology reclaiming policy. Following that the new CEO at Intel Corp, Patrick Gelsinger, completely reassessed Intel's mistaken policies of ceding its entire semiconductor manufacturing technologies capabilities to Taiwan and China. Intel made a U turn and is now investing all or most of $50 billion in the US instead of in China or Taiwan.  On September 24 Modi meets Mr Biden to discuss trade, investment, defense, and security. On the same day the leaders of Japan, Australia, Mr. Suga and Mr. Morrison join Modi and Biden for the Quad 4 talks. Indian infrastructure capabilities and Indian economic growth would be key goals to strengthen India along its land borders along Tibet occupied region and Himalayas as part of the overall effort to build a new US and allied presence in Asia.  On September 21 Modi attends a Covid Summit that will look at the way forward in the aftermath of the pandemic and ways to vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated population in the world, as well as vaccination passports.  ...

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On the 100th anniversary of 1947 and 1949 the Republics of China and India in about 25 years will have become fully developed modern states with science and technology by 2050, leaving behind memories of the colonial period. As the mother of Asian Buddhist civilization this region of northern India would be seen by a new generation of Chinese as part of ancient Chinese Buddhist culture from the days of Lord Buddha and Bodhidharma, and a gradual shift will lead to China leaving Tibet and the border regions of India in Kashmir, Arunachal and Ladakh of its own decision. China's entry into border regions- Kashmir region, Ladakh and Arunachal are a result of China under Mao and the Communist party decision to occupy Tibet and Indian border areas. A result of the memory of occupation of China starting from the border regions in the north Manchuria by the Japanese, and the Kwantung peninsula by western powers Russia, Britain, Germany. And the need to protect its frontiers in the border regions used as buffers by the British Empire, after the Communist Party under Mao created the People's Republic in Beijing. New technology in the 20th century made the high plateau's of Tibet accessible after 2500 years by construction of roads rail transport in high mountain terrain.  What this occupation of Tibet as a border region has done is to put China within a short distance, just days from the plains of India- a situation that has no precedent in the entire history of the world dating from Lord Buddha. Compared to the desolate regions of Manchuria in the north this has an Indian population in the plains of India of as much as a billion people. Just as China sought protection from its own memory of occupation by the Japanese and colonial powers, India seeks protection from colonial powers and the Chinese now in Tibet similar to the Japanese in Manchuria just days away from the plains of the Chang Jiang (Yangste) and  Huang He (Yellow River) of China, China just days away in 2025 from the Ganges/ Brahmaputra , and the Indus river regions. The British Empire no longer exists. British names such as McMahon for McMahon Line frowned upon by anti-colonialist China, no longer exist. India also an anti-colonial power frowns upon such names and the arbitrary way the British (also the Portuguese, the Spanish, Dutch and the French) decided what belonged to whom, including whole nations. As early as 1505 Portuguese occupied Sri Lanka (Ceylon), occupied by the Dutch as part of cinnamon supply zone by 1700, and transferred by treaty to British in 1802, the memories of colonialism date back on the shores of India to 1505.    ...

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The ruling Congress party led coalition government has depended on regional political parties for support. Since winning elections over a BJP led government, the Congress party in India has depended on an alliance with Left and Marxist parties, then an alliance with regional parties from Tamilnadu, and now an alliance with the regional party of Mamata Banerjee in W. Bengal. Following three decades since independence in 1947, when the Congress party under Nehru and Indira Gandhi generally won large majorities in parliament, the situation has changed to where regional party support is needed for either the opposition BJP party or the Congress party to form a coalition government. This has reduced the flexibility of the coalition governments in setting policies to encourage foreign investment in the growing economy.

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The mood in West Bengal state and the conflict between a communist state government which wants to push for industrialization similar to what they see in China, against more doctrinaire communists in the party who operate at the federal level -who opposed the India-USA nuclear cooperation treaty- and a party led by an activist Mamta Banerjee, who opposes the acquisition of land for industrial development and factories.

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IKEA's plans announced in June 2012 for opening 25 stores in India with an investment of $1.9 billion. IKEA says it will meet the requirement that 30% of its products be sourced from small scale local industries, as it plans to increase its purchases in India from $450 million currently to $1 billion in a few years. It said the government should be flexible in its defining of small-enterprises. For India the entry of large scale retailers will help modernize its supplier base in a number of areas. India's current account deficit has increased to 4% of GDP making it important to send a strong positive signal to foreign investors.

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Khair says in the Hindu newspaper, that the problem in India is not that the BJP is gaining ground, but that the Opposition is divided and is shrinking. The shift of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to the BJP leaves the Opposition in disarray. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is seen as weak and lacking the charisma of Nehru. The dynastic control by the family and Rahul Gandhi's leadership are serious problems for the opposition. After the victory in Uttar Pradesh state, and the erosion of support for Congress, India lacks a strong Opposition in parliament, which is not good for the country, says Khair. 

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Prime minister Manmohan Singh moves forward with moves to open up the retail sector to foreign investment and other steps to attract foreign investors. In a televised address he appeals to Indians to support his government's efforts to reduce the deficit by increasing diesel prices, placing caps on cooking gas subsidies, and open up the retail sector to foreign investment. Singh's coalition will survive with a parliamentary majority after the withdrawal of a party based in W. Bengal state led by Mamta Banerjee, by getting the support of a party based in Uttar Pradesh state led by Mulayam Singh Yadav. Singh tells Indians: "we are at a point where we can reverse the slowdown in our growth. We need a revival in investor confidence domestically and globally.'' Earlier efforts to open up the retail sector to foreign investment failed because of Banerjee. Singh also warned Indians of the problems Europe is facing and the need for strong action to prevent a similar situation happening in India. India's political picture has changed since the days of Nehru and Indira Gandhi as no single party has support in all parts of the country, and federal governments in New Delhi are based on coalitions led by Congress party or the BJP party. Singh is known for his market opening moves as finance minister in a Congress led government in the early 1990's. Political strains and corruption scandals have weakened Singh's government in 2011-2012 leading to the lack of clear policies on the deficit and foreign investment, a situation Singh seeks to firmly correct. ...