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1. PETROBRAS KNOWHOW IN DEEP-WATER DRILLING HONED IN DEEPWATERS 100 MILES FROM RIO. In the 1970's Petrobras discovered oil in the coastal area near Maca. Later geological tests showed large deposits more than 100 miles offshore and more than a mile deep underwater. Senior Petrobras engineers worked with manufacturers to develop pressure resistant instruments and the hardware needed to drill deeper. This technology was developed over the years and Petrobras has now honed its skills in deepwater drilling. Since then Petrobras has become the leader in deepwater drilling.. The fact that Brazilian oil was offshore made Brazil focus on offshore oil exploration and use the Atlantic ocean near Brazil for one big R&D project. Petrobras uses floating platforms, of which many are converted oil tankers. These platforms are more agile in deep and remote waters and better weater waves and storms. Petrobras gets 90% of its oil from the waters over 100 miles north east of Rio de Janeiro from a cluster of 38 such platforms. The floating platforms are like large ships that can be connected to hoses to pumping points on the seabed. 2. PETROBRAS INVESTMENTS IN OVERSEAS OFFSHORE DEEPWATER OIL PRODUCTION. Petrobras has the size and profits to have global reach and make the large investments and bring deepwater expertise to other regions. It is 55.7% state owned. Production was 1.9 million barrels a day in 2006. Sales of $45 billion and profits of $10 billion for 2005. The 2005 profit was a 50% increase from 2004. Countries where Petrobras is working include Angola, Tanzania, Turkey and India. Petrobras has stated that it will increase overall investments by 66% in the next 4 years investing $87 billion, mostly on exploration and production from 2007 to 2011. Of that $12.1 billion will be invested overseas for new platforms off the Gulf of Mexico and new fields off the coast of Nigeria and Angola. Petrobras plans to invest $2 billion in the Gulf of Mexico for deepwater drilling. ...

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Second major discovery in offshore Brazil by Petrobras. The discovery is in deep waters and in terrain that will be challenging so it will be years before production is seen.

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Former president Lula da Silva of Brazil is sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges. The charges are that Mr da Silva and his wife were illegally given about $1.1 million in improvements from a construction company for a beachfront apartment. The construction company was able to get lucrative contracts from the state oil company Petrobras. Many of Brazil's politicians are under investigation. The former speaker of the Brazil parliament, Eduardo Cunha, was sentenced to 15 years in jail for money laundering and corruption. The current president Mr. Temer is also under investigation. A culture where such activity was accepted had developed, and this effort started with a small investigation called "Operation Car Wash" in a smaller Brazilian city named Curitiba. Young lawyers determined to set a higher standard and fight Brazil corruption pursued the case that led upto the higher echelons of Brazilian government, the construction industry, and the state oil company Petrobras. ...

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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The probe into corruption at Petrobras, is known as "Operation Car Wash," because some of the payments were routed through a car wash company in Curitiba, Brazil, which caught the attention of a young federal prosecutor in that city. The investigation took a new turn with the arrest by Brazilian police of the heads of two large construction companies, Marcelo Odebrecht of Odebrecht SA, and the CEO of Andrade Gutierrez, on June 18, 2015. Investigators say construction executives in collusion with Petrobras officials inflated the price of contracts and made payments to politicians and political parties including the ruling Workers Party. The alleged amount is about $2 billion. The construction companies are active in shipbuilding, defense contracting, oil and exploration related work, and building the stadiums for the World Cup Soccer and the Olympics. This has damaged the credibility of the ruling Workers Party, former president Da Silva, and current president Dilma Rousseff, in power during the last decade. The companies and the Workers' Party denied any involvement. Federal prosecutor Carlos Fernando dos Santos Lima told a news conference in Curitiba- "We have no doubt that Odebrecht and Andrade Gutierrez headed the cartel scheme within Petrobras." Adding that the two companies "cannot pass themselves off as innocent given how much evidence we have."...

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After 22 months the Brazilian government of President Lula has come up with 4 bills in Congress that willl lay out the basis of ownership of the new oil discovered offshore, called pre-sal because its deep below salt deposits in the Atlantic ocean. The oil in the new fields is made the property of the state, and not that of companies that buy concesssions. In each block half of any oil produced will go to the state. The other half will go to a production sharing agreement between Petrobras and companies that partner with it in proportion to their costs. One bill creates a company Petrosal to finance social spending, infrastructure and other projects. And this is modeled on the Norwegian Oil Fund that has saved oil revenues for the people. Petrobras will also get an injection of the monetary equivalent of 5 billion barrels of oil to strengthen it as the dominant oil company.

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The auction of the Libra ultra-deep water oil field in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Shell, Total and two Chinese companies took part in the auction. Libra is estimated to hold about 12 billion barrels of oil and combined with the other fields in the newly discovered area has about 50 billion barrels of oil. Brazil's laws passed after the discoveries offshore were made in 2006 give Petrobras a critical role in development of the oil fields. A new company Petrasal was created to oversee the new oil fields. The winning bidder in this auction is required to pay the government $7 billion in an upfront payment and source much of the equipment inside Brazil. New investments are required in education, infrastructure and supporting public services after nationwide street protests, making oil field development and new revenues a priority for the government of Dilma Rousseff and the Workers Party that runs the government.

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Simo Romero describes the serious self-reflection among Brazilians, as protests against the games and a climate of indifference replaces the euphoria in 2009 of getting to host the Summer Olympics in 2016. About 63 percent of Brazilians believe hosting the Olympics will hurt the country, 51 percent say they are not interested and only 16 percent are enthusiastic about the games, according to polling company Datafolha. The problems Brazil faces now stem from corruption scandals at Petrobras, impeachment proceedings against president Rousseff, and appointment of an interim president Temer, both extremely unpopular. Rio de Janeiro state's finances are in severe condition, and Brazil appears to have wasted the boom years by running up too much debt and not investing in public infrastructure, education, healthcare, and public services. As a result during the Olympics the sailing competition in Guanabara Bay near Rio is faced with the unpleasant problem of raw sewage that has not been cleaned up. Security needs in the Olympics area has led to reduced security in the northeast where prison run gangs operate in some areas against public property. Former president Lula da Silva who was once popular as Brazil experienced the commodities boom is now under investigation related to the corruption at Petrobras.  ...

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New rules set by Brazil for investment in the oil industry give about 80% of revenues generated back to Brazil. The rules require 30% participation for Petrobras, Brazil's state owned oil company, in all projects and operating of oil fields. The rules also mandate sourcing of equipment inside Brazil to develop local suppliers. Shell and Total, eager to add to oil reserves, will participate in development of the Libra oil field. BP, Chevron and Exxon declined to participate. The Brazilian government faces the difficult choice of keeping as much of the benefits of oil production inside Brazil and yet making it attractive enough for major oil companies with the knowhow for deep water drilling to participate. Delaying development for years means pushing revenue generation further into the future even as the growth rate for Brazil is slowing- down to 0.9% in 2012 and expected to be 2.5% in 2013. The street protests in 2013 making it even more important to show that the benefits of oil production will stay inside Brazil and yet not delay the generation of revenues needed for investment in Brazilian education and infrastructure....

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Problems of declining production at the Cantarell oil field in Mexico have been known for some time. Now President Calderon is trying to take on this issue. Brazil's Petrobras reached an impasse also some years back but was able to make the reforms, see the link to Petrobras. See the link in the WSJ for 8/30/07 on Petrobras . In 1995 President Cardozo of Brazil pushed through reforms after a oil workers strike at Petrobras. Upto that time Petrobras had problems similar to Pemex with underinvestment, state meddling in its affairs and finances, and too much bureaucracy and inefficiency. Can Calderon get reform for Pemex. Which amount of Pemex revenues should go to the government, how much should Pemex have so that it can adequately fund investment in new oil field exploration offshore, how to overcome bureaucracy and inefficient management, and how to arrange board representation so that Pemex can transform itself like Petrobras did. Some of the answers to these questions are emerging. Calderon wants to prepare his political position as the reform of Pemex is something that previous Presidents have failed to tackle. To do this the Senate's Energy Committee is holding a private debate on the issues. Calderon may try to forge a consensus with the Institutional Nacional Party, as he did with pension reforms if an all party consensus eludes him. Already in reforms of public finances that Calderon has pushed through Pemex will pay 71.5 centavos on every peso of oil extracted by 2012, instead of 79 centavos as royalty payments to the government. One reform being considered is to givePemex control of its own budget. At this time $10 billion a year goes back to the government on top of the royalty tax payments. Another reform would open up refining, transport and distribution to private enterprise. A think tank expert at CIDAC in Mexico City thinks that this can be done without reforming the constitution as was done to allow private investment in electricity generation in the 1990's. The same methods could be used to promote risk sharing contracts with other companies to bring in new technology for oil exploration, including companies from emerging countries like Petrobras, Petrochina and others, given Mexican's bias against the western oil majors. Especially because Petrobras has proven expertise in deep water drilling offshore. There is no question that Mexico is falling behind. One energy expert at the National Autonomous University estimates that the density of drilling rigs in the American portion of the Gulf of Mexico is 20 times greater than in the Mexican part, with Mexico having drilled only 20 exploratory wells in water deeper than 980 feet. in other areas like refining Pemex has not built a new refinery in 20 years, and imports 40% of its gasoline from US refineries, and its 7500 gasoline stations need expansion as Mexico's economy expands. Cardozo's transformation came with setting up an independent Board of Directors and putting an investment banker in charge. International oil companies were allowed into Brazil as a way to get Petrobras to compete with western oil companies and increase efficiency. And Cardozo got Petrobras listed on the New York Stock Exchange selling some 16% of Petrobras in the capital markets. This listing ensured transparency and improved corporate governance, as about 50 analysts now tracked Petrobras. ...

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With her popularity rating dropping to a low of 13%, and a corruption scandal facing her Worker's Party for misuse of state funds, the Brazilian parliament votes for impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff in April 2016. Following the boom years under the Lula administration Brazil is experiencing a second year of over 3% decline in GDP. The judge who is taking action against corruption in Petrobras and in the ruling Worker's Party, Sergio Moro, is popular in Brazil. The Worker's Party under former president Lula helped bring more people into a rising middle class, yet their were weaknesses in the boom years of the Lula administration of the Worker's Party- in lack of infrastructure, poor public services, a weak educational system, overdependence on commodities for growth, overextended public finances, and corruption. Emotions are running high in Brazil with one television commentator, Ricardo Boechat, saying he does not remember a situation like this even during the dictatorship years. The Lula and Rousseff supporters at political rallies say the judge and investigators are working to stage a "golpe" or takeover in government for conservative opposition parties....