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Annapurna Labs in Austin, Texas, is Amazon Web services effort to comete with Nvidia in AiIchips. It is working to build an alternative to Nvidia which provides 95% of AI chips. 

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Tech heavy S&P 500- for the largest tech companies- gains are now reversing after a rally based on potential for AI. Nvidia with its AI potential alone was 30% of the gain in S&P 500 at one time. The change in the election situation in July 2024 may be one of the causes. Smaller companies in the Russell 5000 are doing better. It is not clear if this is a trend. 

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To understand the upside down nature of and distortions in capital markets by 2024 look at this set of valuations. Can you tell which market capitalization or valuation is out of step in this list? Boeing $100 billion GM       $67 billion TikTok    $300 billion Intel        $105 billion Apple      $3400 billion Nvidia       $3650 billion   Answer:  TikTok, Nvidia Another way to look at it the combined valuation of Intel, GM and Boeing is $272 billion, less tha Tiktok at $300 billion.  What if these companies disappeared tomorrow- would everything come to a standstill? Almost standstill as there would be no more laptops, cars and planes, much of our modern life would come to a standstill. Remove TikTok would life come to a standstill? Better still the capital allocated to TikTok is put into education, and financial literacy, cultural literacy, would life come to a standstill or are we better off with a more educated citizenry? ...

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WSJ covers Intel's efforts to turn itself into a contract chip manufacturer with large investments under Pat Gelsinger are covered in this report in the WSJ. Intel wants to be the second largest contract chip manufacturer serving companies such as Tesla, Nvidia, and others. By making chips only for its needs Intel lost ground to companies in the foundry business such as Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor. Gelsinger who was with Intel in the early days has rejoined Intel to regain its leadership role in computing, and has the support of president Biden with the CHIPS Act.

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The dominance of trillion dollar companies, Apple at $2.4 trillion and Microsoft at $2.1 trillion, which make up 13% of the S&P 500 index during the regional banking crisis of 2023. The index was up 3.5% in March even as some banks were shut down by the FDIC. This has given these two companies the role of a safe haven in the crisis, along with chipmaker Nvidia. Not for the tech sector's other companies such as Google, Amazon, Facebook and others which are companies facing monopoly behaviour scrutiny and possible breakup by the Biden administration and Congress.

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In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China. US cannot have it both ways. It cannot compete with China in chips and allow temporary market forces do the job of decimating its chip industry.    Market forces are rags to riches and mostly short term ignoring long term. Nvidia now valued at $1 trillion under market forces would not exist today. WSJ showed recently that only with the help of a loan from a Japanese Sega videogame executive Iramijiri to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang was Nvidia able to survive market forces in 1998. Qualcomm a maker of phone chips has made a takeover offer of Intel in 2024. Intel shares dropped 60% this year and is valued on share basis at $90 billion- yet was recently at $290 billion closer to its true value as America's chip pioneer and leader. Qualcomm is at $185 billion. Yet share values can be rags to riches as Nvidia story of going up to $1 trillion in 2021 and $3 trillion in 2024 shows. Such a deal draws anti trust concerns with too much control under one company. A deal for takeover of British owned ARM by Nvidia was stopped by regulatory authorites in UK and the EU in 2022. The US government is giving $8.5 billion to Intel to build up its chip making technology in competition with China. The Gelsinger plan is for manufacturing to be boosted up, so is the effort of the Biden administration. It may take time yet it is the right approach for the US. Pat Gelsinger is leading this effort at Intel. In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China.    ...

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When Nvidia reaches 1 trillion dollars valuation for tech AI has become excessive, AI's potential exaggerated to proportions that could hurt the rest of the economy that sustains the world. AI companies and tech companies revel in the attention that hurts other parts of the stock markets. Some of these valuations are now coming back to earth. Tech companies Ai energy needs were shown to be exorbitant at a time when energy conservation for things like airplanes were considered as having caused rapid climate change and strange weather patterns of fast and larger fires and floods. No one thought to think that if you were cutting airplane carbon imprint why would you put rocket boosters on AI based tech's carbon imprint. The words carbon imprint of AI rarely appear in the media. The media like this report in WSJ calls it a vibe shift, but who sent out the vibes that never mentioned AI's carbon footprint in the first place- the very same media.

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WSJ's Jakab looks at free cash flow yield in value investing in 2025 using data from 1991 to 2024. With the rage over tech stocks Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and the like and intangible value of these companies, can value investing with free cash flow work as an alternative in 2025.

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DJT administration considers taking 10% stake in Intel Corp August 2025. DJT says the Current CEO of Intel should resign immediately. The leading officers of the company with plans to sell off the manufacturing operations of Intel have caused serious concern in the DJT administration. Under Made in America selling off Intel's manufacturing operation not only made no sense but seemed totally incomprehensible. Nvidia would not exist today if it did not persevere through difficult periods and with the US having invented the chip industry America, Intel needs to doggedly stay in the fight to make the chips of the future that buyers need.

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How the need for better power management for mobile, PC and Cloud helped ARM  Holdings compete effectively with much larger Intel Corporation. This report tells the story of the rise of ARM as a dominant supplier of chips for mobile phones. Apple is looking at "performance per watt" as a key parameter in selection of chips. This comes at a time when global cloud computing makes up 1% of global electricity use. Cambridge UK based company Arm Holdings licenses its microchips to 500 companies. Arm has 90% of the market for small processors going into smartphones and tablets, laptops. Intel does not license its microchip designs for them to build their own versions except for AMD and Via Technologies. Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm and Nvidia pay Arm for the license and make variants customized for them with their own engineers.  but all compatible with Arm's ecosystem and "instruction set (which is the instructions used for software to talk to hardware). ...

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The move is one DJT made on his trip to Saudi Arabia in May 2025. DJT signed agreements that let the Saudis (and UAE, Qatar) have access to US made AI chips in exchange for $1 trillion in investments in US AI infrastructure. This is the only way the Saudis can access AI technologies in the US. For the US and for Saudi this is a way to efficiently utilize funds that go from the rest of the world to the Saudis for oil, much of it being wasted on foreign wars not development and science in other oil producing regions. To do this DJT rescinded the Diffusion prevention rule made by the Biden administration to not let even allies have a way to invest in American AI and have AI chips exported to allies.

One result can be seen in the 73% growth in Nvidia's data center sales in 2025, which makes AI chips, even after a $4.5 billion charge for DJT administration rules blocking sales of AI chips to a competitor China.

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  The hundreds of billions of dollars these American AI people talked about are needed to rebuild the nation's infrastructure, schools, water, housing, education, healthcare and other needs that directly raise living standards. DeepSeak is the AI model of Liang Wenfeng's $8 billion hedge fund Deep-Flyer. It does what Microsoft's OpenAI does at a tiny fraction of the cost. It proves that smaller competitors with less funding can tackle AI. This includes AI Mistral from France and AI startups from India and other countries.  Another immediate effect of DeepSeek as an open AI model is to provide serious competition for Nvidia and OpenAI and the big spenders such as Google, Meta Platforms that seek to dominate every niche in the IT world. It proves that the latest cutting edge chips such as Nvidia are not needed and that one can come up with other methods and software to do what others can do without the latest and most powerful chips that cost a lot lot more by huge magnitude. It is what happened in the Space Race to put satellites in space- the entities that can do it at less cost such as the Indian space program entities are the ones that dominate the field- cost matters. The hundreds of billions of dollars these American AI people talked about are needed to rebuild the nation's infrastructure, schools, water, housing, education, healthcare and other needs that directly raise living standards. ...

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US to take stakes in American companies to help them achieve goals of Make in America with Intel stake the first action. The $8.9 billion Biden intended for Intel to make chips in the US will be handed over to Intel but for a stake in the company of 10%. For years Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and China have subsidized their companies in different and some hidden ways. Many times these companies have sustained losses as they built for the long term in volatile market situations. Nvidia now a trillion dollar company was at one time a company struggling to survive saved only by a Japanese corporate investor as shown in a recent WSJ report. The US has taken no such action losing its dominant position in many advanced industries including chips till the Biden and DJT administrations. Yet the media keeps voicing the old ideas of market capitalism as if there is such a thing when state capitalism operates with market capitalism in the Chinese model, and a form of semi state capitalism operates with market capitalism in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan with hidden subsidies by the state to build dominant positions in certain industrial sectors. Even US companies are willing to take such subsidies as when Elon Musk builds car plants in China with state assistance and support, which never comes up in the media even when the Chinese EV makers are learning from the Americans and Tesla is losing market share in China. Theory is for the textbooks and economists,  in business all forms of capitalism work including a mix of state and market, and America has to invent its way back to lead the way in advanced industries.  ...

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Pat Gelsinger is right about "fighting for every inch" at Intel for everyday manufacturing chips that make up our lives, to not let market forces swinging wildly in different directions one moment this way the other way the next, decimate American Manufacturing. Regulators have a job to do to protect America's vital interests and of its people. AI surge for Nvidia make it a one trillion company one day and briefly a two trillion dollar company for a day. In 1998 only a small $15 million loan from Iramijiri of Japanese videogame company Sega helped Nvidia founder Jensen Huang survive when it took a hard turn and a design failed. Huang even says in WSJ he would not start the company if he did this again as market forces can be crippling for personal lives as well. What does this all mean? The Biden Administration has a plan to revive America's chip making genius and innovation that has driven America from 40% of the manufacturing of chips to 5%. Intel is right at the heart of this plan. The Chips and Science law will do this including $8.5 billion for Intel manufacturing which Pat Gelsinger is pushing forward for Intel Corp.  Here comes a company that has outsourced Manufacturing entirely- Qualcomm to takeover Intel. It knows nothing about Manufacturing, it cares nothing about American Manufacturing and loss of leadership in Manufacturing, and for the millions of people who work in America in factories and research facilities related to manufacturing design.  ...

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With the hype around AI and the propagandizing by people like Altman, Microsoft, and others AI got to the point where it made up 34% of the S&P 500 capitalization, and all time high for 7 of the large companies since 1980. Nvidia who makes the chips for AI  making up about 6.8% of the S&P 500, contributing to a quarter of the total return on the S&P 500 index in 2024.

Till someone in China figured out a way to do it at 5.6% of what it costs in the US for the high flying AI companies in the US. 

 

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"If you could have dinner with someone you never met who would that be?"

For Ms. Powell Jobs, Steve Jobs wife, who owns 38.5 million shares of Apple stock, in addition to a 7% stake in Disney Company, the answer is Nelson Mandela. 

For Nvidia founder Jensen Huang the answer is MC Hammer.

This was at an event called Demo Day in the Bay area.

Ms. Powell Jobs said on Demo Day about climate change investment that it will continue-

“I don’t know that it’s going to be that difficult. I think there are always ways to find common ground and to find things that we agree on, and in many ways, people will just continue the work.”

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If the decline in manufacturing in rural southern Virginia for 500 workers in a low tech deli meatpacking plant can devastate whole communities, then imagine what happens  when manufacturing in chips and science with high paying jobs are put at risk by market forces focused on AI.  This week WSJ carried a story about Qualcomm which does design and does no manufacturing is planning a takeover of Intel, a leader in manufacturing for advanced chips in the US, a key part of Biden-Harris strategy to regain a American foothold in Chips manufacturing. Such a takeover makes no sense for America's long term interests. Qualcomm could simply jettison the manufacturing capabilities -a key part of America's long term chips and science strategy just because AI focus has distorted market forces. IMAGINE THE DAMAGE. Regulators need to safeguard the Nation's long term interests for reliable chips manufacturing within the US, to avoid the crisis experienced with chips outsourced overseas leading to severe shortages in 2021-2023. How this has happened is that AI has created distortions in the market so that companies are valued differently. So that an Nvidia gets valued at $1 trillion and even for a day at $2 trillion then going back down to half that, all within a 12 month period. AI is distorting the market in ways that a chip leader like Intel now gets valued at $90 billion a third of the $290 billion it is valued at only a short time ago, making talk of takeovers possible even from smaller design only companies such as Qualcomm. The market failure in this case comes from markets being distorted by not reflecting true costs of shortages America experienced in chips from lack of its own advanced manufacturing during 2021-2023.   ...