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European leaders knowing Putin and Russia were not ready for a ceasefire opted for a strategy to get Ukraine to offer an unconditional ceasefire to see if there was any change. Trump who had earlier called for an unconditional ceasefire by both sides, initially felt Ukraine was not moving ahead to support a deal. During May 2025 the EU leaders following Merz forming a coalition government in Germany joined together (Starmer, Macron and Merz) to make one more effort. Trump offered to call Putin. Yet this has not worked, except that now Trump is coming around to the view of the EU leaders that Russia is not joining the peace initiative as it sees that Russia is winning the war. Meantime two new developments took place. Germany's coalition government under Merz passed legislation so that it could build the German defense forces. Merz openly talks about making the Budeswehr the best defense force in Europe in contrast to Scholz who had resisted German involvement. Trump says it is not his war and it would not have happened under his presidency. ...

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Denmark's Mette Frederiksen and policy of no asylum in EU for illegal migrants is becoming the norm in Europe- as Germany's Merz supports this policy- and the US. Britain under Starmer's Labour has struggled with it's justice system unable to deal with the situation of asylum because it was never designed for people of other countries entering the country in this way. Simply fixing the justice system as Yvette Cooper plans to do, which was never intended for this purpose ignores that there are 111,000 asylum cases as reported by the Times of London in June 2025 compared to 7000 in 2022.  Mette Frederiksen is a Socialist and has shown that this has nothing to do with politics, only common sense application of the laws of Britain, Denmark, Germany, US and other countries that only way to enter the country is legally. 

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There are questions whether the Black Rock Germany "Dare Capitalism" (his book) model of CDU's Merz with a debt brake support limiting investments needed in the economy are right for Germany's future. Wash. Post says people close to him say he is direct and pragmatic but also arrogant and thin skinned. Friedrich Merz is 69 years, Konrad Adenauer was 73 years when he took office. 

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There is much uncertainty about the federal elections in Germany in 2025. Four years back in 2021 Olaf Scholz had 51% of people polled saying he would make a good chancellor. This is down to 26% in Feb 2025. Merz of CDU is at 32% and Habeck of Greens at 25%. The Greens are holding onto 14% similar to 2021 with the SPD Social Democrats of Scholz at a low of 18% down from 25% in 2021. CDU is at 32% compared to 24% in 2021. AFD moving from 11% in 2021 to 21%. The immigration issue and the weak economy with the Ukraine war has hit SPD hard. The Scholz coalition also failed to invest in the economy with the FDP of Finance Minister Lindner acting as a brake on needed investment in infrastructure. The result is that the German economy burdened with higher costs for energy and a faltering auto industry is showing zero growth. The most likely outcome is a CDU coalition with the Greens and the SPD with Merz as chancellor. There is athreshold for gettinginto parliament of 4%. At this time a breakaway faction of Left parties of Wagenknecht and the FDP are both polling below 4%. The AfD is at 21% and hoping to gain from the immigration issue. Much of the uncertaintly comes from 18% of voters not planning to vote, and the 13% of voters who have not made up their mind yet and will do so on election day. ...

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Germany's modernization plan for bureaucracy and red tape  a major priority for  Merz with savings of $175 billion. Efforts to have a policy aross all state govenments and federal governments that cuts bureaucratic reporting and documentation requirements at least by one third. Other actions-

emails replace paper documents

one time data collection and faster approvals if the authorites have not cleared it in 3 months it is automatically approved

The population wants reforms; they want to overcome the stagnation," says Kretschemmer, premier of the state of Saxony.

 

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Russia uses SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization to present it's case on Ukraine saying a coup supported by the US and Europe was the root cause of the crisis, in other words an effort to turn a Russian language country against Russia with it's effort to delink from Russia and join the European Union. US seeing China as the main competitor is trying under a Republican administration to bring Russia back into the European and US fold. The Europeans Germany and France, UK under Macron, Starmer and Merz are pushing back and see it primarily from the Northern European perspective of a Russian threat as they have over centuries of rivalry in Europe since 1600. China sees Germany and German led EU as its main source of western technology, trade and capital needed for a state run capitalism to function effectively. Germany seeks to keep it's China relations on a even keel for its economic interests, so does China. In this situation it can be surmised that it is the Europeans that asked DJT to sanction India for buying Russian oil to cut Russian source of oil resource sales by $119 billion leaving China's $136 billion purchase of oil from Russia aside (knowing China would not cancel sales easily), to buy time till Germany can build up arms supply to Ukraine. India is buying time to make a gradual shift to stand with the US and the improved US-Russia relations under the Republicans can only help India gradually shift to where it always stands- with the English speaking people of the world, the US and Britain, a policy Gandhi firmly supported and which India as an ancient civilization of the Buddha and the Bhagavad Gita finds itself at home with.   ...

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Two German Patriot air defense systems are to be transferred to Ukraine and replaced by the US. The decision by Germany's Merz comes as Kyiv suffers a cruise missile attack that destroys an apartment block leading to 31 dead and 159 wounded on July 31, 2025. Five of 8 cruise missiles used evaded air defense systems.  The war brings ancient history important to Russia in the founding of the Russian state in European history before 1450 and complicated history after the Communist Bolshevik Russian revolution in the Ukraine region, the Cold War and Russia returning to its historic role of a Northern European Power. Russian commentary on Russian nationalism today suggests Russia seeks acceptance as a major European power without Wall Street's evaluation based on GDP of nations leaving Russia middling status. Wall Street gives disproportionate importance to China relative to India, Russia and Brazil three large nations on 3 continents for example. Witkoff is on the way as DJT emissary to Russia to seek some solution, but the war drags on as Russia sees itself making slow yet steady progress and seeks to end the war on terms favorable to it following huge loss of life estimated at hundreds of thousands. In August both sides including DJT are losing patience. DJT offers more sanctions but says at the same time that this may not deter Russia. Following SPD's Scholz frustrated yet restrained approach to the war, Chancellor Merz is investing in a rebuilding of Germany's defense forces and it's infrastructure. ...

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Presenting the ReARM package in Brussels the European Union president Von der Leyen says- “This is a moment for Europe and we are ready to step up.” The proposals Leyen said “could mobilise close to €800bn of defence expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe." About $650 billion comes from increasing the European spending on defense by 1.5% of GDP from numbers below 2% that reflected underspending on defense. The EU will loosen strict deficit rules. The CDU coalition government in Germany with SPD under Merz that is being setup will remove the debt brake in the German Constitution that limits defense spending to 1%.  Another $150 billion in loans can be generated from joint EU borrowing that could be given to countries. That will Leyen says- “It will help member states to pool demand and to buy together. This will reduce costs, reduce fragmentation, increase interoperability and strengthen our defence industrial base.” The European Investment Bank will participate in the lending. ...

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Germany's leading candidate for chancellor Merz gets an exemption for Germany to EU Common European Asylum System (CEAS) asylum laws for National Security reasons. The goal is to tight Schengen border controls to keep out illegal migrants.  EU president Von der Leyen calls Merz action on CEAS  asylum laws "innovative solutions." Germany takes U turn on asylum law as public opinion shifts with a series of crimes committed by illegal migrants allowed to stay in Germany including car rampages through crowds on streets, most recently in Munich. A sense of fatigue in EU with illegal migrants and a desire for normalcy, the old way of life, and secure neighborhoods and urban spaces. It is now seen in CDU as Merkel's policy errors and failure of judgement in letting in a flood of illegal migration.

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The State of the Union Address in 2026 cited the enormous impact on the world we know today over 2 centuries by this Nation. Jefferson breathed his last in 1826, between that and two persons in the chamber- including Air Force pilot who is 100 years old- between 1826 and 1926 when this pilot was born is a span of 100 years, and in this pilot's lifespan another 100 years. In this period, a couple of generations in our lifetimes, so much was achieved, said the president. So much of the address was about the potential ahead following the heroic efforts of the past. We are part of something larger than us, says the president, and this larger than us is the collective consciousness of the American Nation. "Two-hundred fifty years is a long time in the life of a nation. But in another sense, it's really a mere moment in the eye of history. Two of the gentlemen we met in the gallery this evening took their first breaths one century ago. One hundred years before that, on July 4th, 1826, the author of the Declaration of Independence, brilliant Thomas Jefferson, drew his last breath. Just a single long human life span separates the giants who declared and won our independence from the heroes who stand among us tonight. Everything our nation has done, everything we have achieved, has been the work of those few great lifetimes. In those brief chapters, Americans built this nation from 13 humble colonies into the pinnacle of human civilization and human freedom. The strongest, wealthiest, most powerful, most successful nation in all of history. Americans ventured out across the daunting and dangerous continent. We carved pass through an unforgiving wilderness, settled a boundless frontier, and tamed the beautiful but very, very dangerous wild west. From empty marshes and wide-open plains, we raised up the world's greatest cities. Together we mastered the world's mightiest industries, shattered history's monstrous tyrannies. And we liberated millions from the chains of fascism, communism, oppression and terror." Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR and JFK, through their efforts and the efforts of scientists and industrial pioneers, and of the People of the United States, of educators and scientific endeavors, so much was achieved, and so much lies ahead. ...

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Russian proposals for settlement in Ukraine including giving up the whole eastern Donbass region, recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and limiting its army and long range weapons. These are the same conditions set in 2022. There is a new situation developing in Europe as Germany, France, Britain and most of Eastern Europe looks to be firm in support of Ukraine. Germany is stepping up its military preparedness under chancellor Merz of the CDU led coalition government. The US under DJT is working under two pathways seeking engagement with Russia and at the same time seeking a way to settle the Ukraine conflict. With German, British and EU support it appears unlikely that Ukraine would agree to all the Russian terms as Russia is using some gains on the war front to gain a clear win in 2025. By 2026 with European support Ukraine may look for a settlement that offers better terms than currently offered by Russia. For the US DJT faces pressures from within the Republican party that would oppose giving Russia a win after its role as the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, and after the bombing destruction of Ukraine's cities.   ...

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During a critical 4 weeks in March 9 to April 9, 2025 Germany finds itself without a newly elected government following elections Feb 23, 2025. Only on April 9 is a new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government in place led by CDU chancellor Merz. Tariffs came to the forefront, the critical issues of world trade and the effect on stock markets, without an elected government in place in Berlin to speak for the European Union and participate in discussions.  Japan's Ishiba and India's Modi offered the US some support as it sought to restore the world trading system to where it was before the serious distortions from China joining the WTO. Much of it the result of American companies outshoring American manufacturing and turning their backs on American workers, and the dignity and pride of workers who rebuilt the US and Europe, and Asia after the Depression and the Second World War.

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One fifth of Kviv's population of 3 million has left the city, 4000 apartment buildings are without electricity in Kviv, this winter January 2026. This is the worst of the last couple of winters of the war, as Russia attacks energy infrastructure in Kviv on a large scale even as peace talks continue. Russia insists on control of Donbas region. Much of Ukraine today remembers a famine from the Soviet period, Russia remembers its proud history, language and culture from its beginnings in the Kviv region around the 14th century, that is the what this conflict is about. On one dimension it is about NATO and European Union expansion on another about the history and culture, language in a Russian language part of the world and the effort of Ukraine in the 21st century to seek a new identity. It is a struggle between fraternal people in the Russian region and in that sense a tragedy. It doesn't have to be one for Europe, for Germany. NATO was created when the Soviet Union expanded after 1948 and Britain was a key protagonist of NATO. Would its disbanding after Soviet Union disbanded leaving Russia as a country with centuries of its own history, would this have been the right action. If needed a new organization with a new name and Russia invited to join, would this have helped? Could this have focused attention on a new power as chancellor Merz has said, the new power being China being something requiring attention. The US is beginning to have new thoughts in this winter on 2026. The northern European nations (Britain, Poland, Finland and the Nordic countries, Baltics) have historical conflicts for centuries among themselves, they appear to be using NATO for their own historical conflicts. The US understands this, it is looking for a way to get a peace settlement so it can focus on the western hemisphere and not entangle itself in northern European conflicts that have been happening since 1600 with changing actors. The Republican have taken the lead under DJT for a new approach to put American people and their wellbeing, their right to live free of drugs(Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia), to live free of illegal migrants (Guatemala, Mexico, Venezuela), and improve on the shaky supply chains that were concentrated in China to bring jobs home that were lost by the millions (tariff policy), and to make living affordable (energy, agriculture).  ...

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As Macron struggles to present EU's case in Washington DC the problems in Germany loom large.The debt brake Merkel to stop debt based infrastructure investment is what ails Germany and the EU. It has had two pernicious effects. It created the AfD's surge by lowering economic growth and investment in public needs - housing, transport, public services. It worsened the SPD and CDU performance by not investing in security, with no policies to return crime committing refugees to their home countries. A combination of aid and other assistance, diplomacy, would have secured the cooperation of countries to take them back. A strong display of action on removing refugees committing any offenses would have lessened the number of terrorism incidents and reduced a surge in the AfD performance with loss of confidence in chancellor Scholz.  CDU's Merz says he wants to remove the constitutional brake from the German constitution. The SPD under a new leader would want the same as it seeks to invest in the economy. Scholz lacked the foresight not to enter into a coalition with the Free Democrats in 2021 who flatly opposed public spending to meet pressing infrastructure needs lowering growth.  Both CDU of Merkel and SPD of Scholz lacked the foresight and the courage to invest and not settle for less for Germany. ...

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India imports 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia. It now faces the need to address the problem this has created for Germany and US seeking an end to Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Without other leverage DJT and indirectly Germany are putting pressure on India to shift these purchases to the US and cut India's $46 billion deficit with the US.  India needs to accept that the reprieve it got during the covid years to import from Russia to help it control inflation at home would at some time come under increasing pressure from the US. That time may be now as DJT and Merz see this as the only few areas of leverage they have to get Russia to reconsider its position for settling the Ukraine war entirely on its terms. Just as in the India Pakistan war the current talk of nuclear escalation resulting from the Ukraine war has to be a major consideration for US, EU, Russia, China and India, all the world's leaders, to step back and see ways to work for an overall interest than in time to come will help these nations national interests.  It will require brave moves from India, China, the US and Russia. Yet this is the new course that alone can bring a return to a world focused on modernization and improving the lives of the people of these nations. ...

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Ukrainian view on surrendering the 25% of Donbass it does not control for peace deal are shown here in interviews by DW.com in that region near the frontlines. The Kviv Institute of Sociology survey shown here is that 71% of Ukrainians are against giving up the 25% of Donbass. Survey in the Donbass region show 47% opposed, 29% undecided and 24% support giving up tereritory for a peace deal. About 200,000 people mostly pensioners and people who do not want to see their home being looted still live in the Kviv controlled Donbass areas near the frontlines. What about elections? If elections are held and an Ukrainian party including that of Zelensky were to agree to surrendering the Donbass how would the Ukrainian 71% opposed or undecided react. Other attitudes to giving up the rest of Donbass is that there is afeeling even among people who might favor this for a peace deal that Russian forces might continue the war at a later time. Germany's Merz is investing heavily to build up the Bundeswehr and recharge the German economy- the German response is to coordinate with UK, France and Italy and the EU to set up a bloc independent of the US to respond to the peace overtures of the US president with one's of it's own that do not include giving up the Donbass, and to create guarantees that the war ends here, no sporadic starts as in the last 2 decades. ...

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French nuclear force Rafale jets have $6.6 billion annual cost 2025. German leader chancellor Merz is considering sharing French nuclear arsenal for defense of Germany. Macron has met Merz 3 times and the discussions go on. Germany has removed its debt brake in its Constitution setup by Merkel, so that $ 1 trillion can be spent on infrastructure including defense spending. This report in the WSJ looks at the 290 warheads of France and 250 of Britain on submarines as deterrents with additional deterrent from US NATO nuclear forces. US has asked for burden sharing on conventional forces not nuclear forces. Yet Europe sees the US as less of a reliable ally under DJT in 2025, and considering building its own nuclear deterrent.

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Lack of experience and vague policy positions are leading to the collapse of the Five Star party started by comedian Beppe Grillo in Italy. Unlike the movement against establishment politics started by Mr. Macron in France as a minister in the Hollande government with considerable business and government experience but still an outsider, Mr Grillo and his representative Mr. Maio in the government lack experience in governing. This is leading to its complete collapse only two years after its success at elections winning 33% of the vote. It shows that such movements can be short lived without a clear economic agenda that can be implemented, not mere criticism of the existing arrangements.

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NYT's Homan who traveled 640 miles across Colorado and Woolf look at the reelection bid of a 33 year old owner of a restaurant and bar in the small town of Rifle in Colorado, Lauren Boebert. She represents the Trump centric activists at the state and county organizations who differ from other parts of the Republican party including more conventional Republicans like Jeff Hurd who graduated from Notre Dame and is a lawyer in Grand Junction. Hurd is challenging Boebert in the Republican primary. Boebert won the Congressional seat from Colorado's Third District over Adam Frisch by a mere 546 votes. After controversy regarding her behavior at Beetlejuice theatre Boebert is seen as lagging behind the Democrat's Adam Frisch, a Aspen councilman who ran out of funds in the last election yet is well financed this time.

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The creation of a two tier wage structure in Japan with different pay and benefits for Temporary workers is holding back consumption in Japan as temporaryworkers feel tooo insecure to spend much. And there are a substantial number of temporary workers, from 18% in 1987to 23% in 1997 and now 33% in 2007 about a third of the work force, with some workers as at Hino Motors making a mere $10 an hour.

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Opening windows and doors to let in fresh air is as important as wearing masks and social distancing to prevent coronavirus. In places where people gather and in homes it is important to let in fresh air so that there is new fresh air circulating in rooms 3-4 times for every hour. It is being used as a strategy in schools in Germany to bring in fresh air. Putting MERV 13 type air filters in central air conditioning and heating systems is important in offices, shops and other spaces. A complete redesign of the systems that are old is needed. There are 36,000 schools in the U.S. that have old failing systems of heating and cooling. It would cost $360 billion to change these systems if each system cost $10,000 which is on the low side. This shows that good intentions are not enough, new priorities need to be set and the old priorities which misallocated funds through existing capital allocation structures in the West coasts and East coast cities no longer serve the purpose of the Renewal of America.  ...

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Starmer of the UK's plan for Ukraine is clearly a stop gap plan in the chaotic manner in which DJT plan for disbanding NATO was conducted. This gives time for the Europeans to act. Meanwhile Leyen's EU -Leyen was Defense Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany- put out a $158 billion plan for funding defense. Merz of the CDU is clear how his coalition with SPD will act for independence from America on Europe's defense. Within weeks or months one can expect the Federal Republic take the lead for the defense of Europe, with the partnership of France, and the Nordic countries of Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and the UK. As Merz said clearly- “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA." European perceptions of recent happenings in the Ukraine war and the war's progression from the beginnings over three years will matter in 2025 as Europe, as Germany, France and Britain take on the role of bringing a fair peace to Europe that closes the war and does the reconstituting of defense architecture of Europe under new institutions that needed to be taken up in the 1990's after the fall of the Berlin Wall. ...

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This opinion in the Economist magazine says Britain's position in the world has never been this low since the Suez crisis in 1956. With its volatile politics and no sense of direction Britain it says has lost its place in the world. During the Suez crisis Anthony Eden's efforts to restore Britain's position in Egypt was torn down by America. The U.S. pursues its own interests first- so much for the special relationship with America. It is only when the three pillars that sustained Britain operate together does Britain have a role- its relationship with America gives it a special place in the EU, and its relationship with the EU gives it a special place with America and acts as a counterbalance to Germany and France inside the EU. The third pillar is Britain's place with the emerging world which is supported by its being a member of the EU, a 500 million people market. The Economist counts as mere deceptions the idea that British industry is handicapped by being in the EU. It says the Mittelstand has done well with the EU market, so has British industry.     ...

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2013 will be a crucial year for Windows mobile software, according to IDC. IDC analysts say developer support is critical and mobile platforms that fall below 50% in support from developers 'very interested' in developing apps for them are likely to see a gradual demise. IDC's quarterly surveys of more than 4800 mobile apps developers shows Windows 8 tablets having such support from 33% of developers and Windows phone 7 software having 21% support. Research in Motion (RIM) has a mere 9% support for Blackberry phones and 8% for the PlayBook tablet. The figures for Apple iPhone are 85% and iPad are 83%, followed by Android phone 76%, Android tablet 66%.

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Germany scraps 3 year path to German citizenship replaces it with 5 years and B+ in German. The change in the law by SPD coalition to 3 year path was criticized by CDU as "turbo path." Dual citizenship will be retained. The new law for 5 year path to citizenship is the policy of the new government the CDU-SPD coalition led by CDU's Merz. Those non citizens who pose a risk to the democratic order will be sent back to their home countries.