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Macron says he will visit China soon, and China can play a mediating role in Ukraine to prevent ground offensives in January and February 2023- to give peace talks a chance.

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Mr. Macron told television viewers of a national debate with Le Pen that "she wants to take France out of the European Union, she just doesn't say it." The debate showed the clear differences between Macron and Le Pen on the European Union, on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine, on Le Pen's ties with Russia that Macron noted  during the debate. Le Pen brought up the raising of the pension age to 65 which Macron says would be done very gradually over 10 years, and Macron responded by saying this was to be able to increase pension payments and increase investments in the economy.

A snap poll by polling firm Elabe showed that for viewers of the debate the candidate they found most convincing was Macron at 59% and Le Pen at 39%.

 

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Steps the US has taken to not let the war escalate even as it arms Ukraine to be able to defend itself. The goal being to defend Ukraine and seek a settlement as quickly as possible with Russia. Biden, Macron and Scholz have talked to Putin in the last few weeks as the winter war drags on with no one gaining from this war. 

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Lengthy conversations between Scholz, Macron and Putin for over 80 minutes on Saturday last week in which German and French leaders tell Russia that it is getting deeper and deeper into a situation that is bad for Russia. At the same time Scholz and his chief of staff Schmidt emphasize that Russia should not be winning the war. With Russian gains using artillery in the east the situation is again moving in a direction where additional US military assistance would be needed for Ukraine to defend itself. The WSJ Editorial Board says today that such additional assistance should be given to Ukraine.

Germany and France see a shortening of the war as a way to reduce the impact of a sharp recession. Macron and Scholz are making an effort to get Russia to talk directly with Ukraine to reach a settlement to end the war. 

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Efforts by French president Macron to end the alienation of Russia from the Western Alliance by bringing together Ukraine's Zelensky and president Putin of Russia for talks in Paris. The effort is for the negotiations to take place in a new environment that accepts the need to recognize Russian concerns for NATO too close to its borders. President Macron has stated that Russia is not the threat for NATO to focus on as the world has changed with the emergence of China, the changes with the Trump administration policy. By ending the Ukraine conflict and Russian perception of a threat on its borders, Macron is making a constructive effort to bring Europe together and put the Ukraine conflict behind it. His comments about NATO being brain dead have received too much media attention, less attention to the effort to mediate and solve conflicts based on perceived threats Russia thinks it faces.

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In a show of solidarity with Ukraine Scholz, Macron and Draghi, leaders of the German, French and Italian governments go by train to Irpin and Kviv. The US promises an additional $1 billion in aid this week. The Ukraine war is now mostly fought in the east in the Donbas region and near the town of Severodonetsk where Ukrainian forces face artillery barrages from the Russians and have taken heavy casualties. The longer range rockets needed to counter the Russian advance have not yet reached Ukraine from the US.

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After the pandemic a step forward to a peaceful settlement in Ukraine Russia relations. Merkel and Macron supported the peace effort and Russia Ukraine are beginning to put the conflict bahind. That started with the eastern regions of Ukraine that are more Russian speaking forming their own government. Russia after two invasions in the last 200 years is sensitive to NATO expansion leading to its support for the Russian speaking region of eastern Ukraine.

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French president Macron speaking on the Dixmude helicopter carrier on the French port base of Toulon- "Our nuclear forces contribute through their own existence to the security of France and Europe," says French president Macron. He said France will assess "all the consequence" and develop "a new security architecture" on the continent after peace returns to Ukraine. France is the only nuclear deterrent power in Europe and nuclear deterrence will continue to be kept "credible and modern." Macron pointed out that "Europe is not sheltered anymore from missile and drone strikes and we must integrate this reality." Macron was unveiling a national strategic review that will show how its defense will look in 2030. France will also budget for "influence" to fight the kind of war used by Russia and Mr. Putin to undermine the thinking and to "manipulate civilian populations." ...

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In the current situation France- with Germany sharing a border with Russia and a difficult history- it is France that is responding to the challenges of NATO and Eastern European states. In 1966 De Gaulle took France out of NATO. In 2007 Nicholas Sarkozy brought France back into NATO and integrated with the armed forces command structures of NATO once again, yet keeping its nuclear deterrent separate from NATO. In 2024 it is Macron who is responding to the Russian advances in the war in Ukraine saying France and NATO will "support Ukraine for as long and as intensively as needed." This means the EU and Western Europe will build the capability and prepare for situations to defend Eastern Europe on their own. There is also unanimity between Scholz, Macron, Meloni, Sanchez on this issue for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, the original founders of EU.

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This is Zelensky's second visit to Germany, after the first visit in February 2022 just days before the Russian invasion. Meeting German president Steinbrenner is important as the SPD leaders Steinbrenner and Scholz were seen as closer to Russia during the Merkel period. Scholz visited Ukraine in June to see first hand the damage to civilians with Macron and Italian prime minister Draghi. A settlement to the war in Ukraine could depend on Ukraine making gains with its counteroffensive with German, UK and American military assistance. Germany UK and US have expanded their assistance to Ukraine. Before the trip to Germany Zelensky visited Pope Francis. China has also sent its top diplomat to France, Germany and Russia to come up with a solution. 

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Viktor Orban of Hungary drops his veto and Ukraine gets the green light for EU Membership. This is a result of weeks of effort by France's Macron, Germany's Scholz to reach this goal. It is an historic day for Ukraine which is making little progress in the war and faces a difficult winter. DW of Germany covers this crucial period for Ukraine as it needs 50 billion euros of aid from the EU to get through the next year. The US has already given about $111 billion of aid and the EU is now stepping up to meet financial commitments to defend its own region.

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DJT calls Macron and Starmer "nice guys," but guys who did nothing to end the Ukraine war. He says the effort for a minerals deal with Ukraine was made in the context of Europe making loans to Ukraine and the US having given outright aid and the need for the US to be treated same as the Europeans. 

CDU's candidate for Chancellor in next week's German election says Germany should consider taking a stake in the British and French nuclear arsenal, now that NATO Article 5 may not be honored by the US under DJT. Offers were made by the French for this to happen many years back.

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The G20 declaration from Indonesia says that it "is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability." It called the threat of use of nuclear weapons "inadmissable." It said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine." Overall this was a major step forward with meetings between Biden and Xi, Trudeau and Xi of China, and discussions that led to Macron of France announcing his intention to visit China to get China to mediate for peace in Ukraine. It sets the path forward after Covid pandemic for peaceful cooperation in places other than Ukraine and efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. The midterms in the US Congress also set the stage for Mr. Biden to offer a stable US participation after the volatile Trump years in peaceful competition with China, and growth in India, Africa, and other parts of Asia and Latin America.

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Russia uses SCO or Shanghai Cooperation Organization to present it's case on Ukraine saying a coup supported by the US and Europe was the root cause of the crisis, in other words an effort to turn a Russian language country against Russia with it's effort to delink from Russia and join the European Union. US seeing China as the main competitor is trying under a Republican administration to bring Russia back into the European and US fold. The Europeans Germany and France, UK under Macron, Starmer and Merz are pushing back and see it primarily from the Northern European perspective of a Russian threat as they have over centuries of rivalry in Europe since 1600. China sees Germany and German led EU as its main source of western technology, trade and capital needed for a state run capitalism to function effectively. Germany seeks to keep it's China relations on a even keel for its economic interests, so does China. In this situation it can be surmised that it is the Europeans that asked DJT to sanction India for buying Russian oil to cut Russian source of oil resource sales by $119 billion leaving China's $136 billion purchase of oil from Russia aside (knowing China would not cancel sales easily), to buy time till Germany can build up arms supply to Ukraine. India is buying time to make a gradual shift to stand with the US and the improved US-Russia relations under the Republicans can only help India gradually shift to where it always stands- with the English speaking people of the world, the US and Britain, a policy Gandhi firmly supported and which India as an ancient civilization of the Buddha and the Bhagavad Gita finds itself at home with.   ...

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Could S. Jaishankar borker a peace in the Ukraine Russia war. Mr. Macron thinks India's Jaishankar and Modi could help set up a peace agreement. Germany's chancellor Scholz visited Beijing and called for an end to the war with president Xi of China. Jaishankar India's most experienced diplomat with long periods as a diplomat in China, is expected to visit Russia for setting up the groundwork for a peace settlement even though its outlines are not evident at this time.

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 Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, says he hopes the IAEA visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine can take place within days. Both Mr. Macron and Mr. Putin have agreed that the inspection visit by IAEA should take place. This nuclear plant is under Russian control but run by Ukrainians and connected to the Ukrainian grid. The fears were that Russia would somehow disconnect it from the Ukrainian grid leading to issues of safety and potential of an accident from lack of cooling systems.

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The coalition of socialist, greens and communist parties could win about 205 seats says the Ifop poll. Jean Luc Melenchon is leading a effort by socialist parties to form the next government in France. It is the only alternative to Mr. Macron's party in the parliamentary elections on June 12 and June 19. Meenchon supports raising the minimum wage by 15%, introducing a wealth tax and lowering the retirement age. Another poll by BVA shows only 35% of French voters want Macron's party to win a majority. 

Germany under Scholz's socialist SPD and Greens has increased the minimum wage to 12 euros per hour as part of the election platform. The trend in Europe is now for support to workers and families to meet the high cost of living with inflation accelerated by the war in Ukraine, the energy shortages and higher food prices.

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There are now 2 Lefts in France after the failure of a no confidence motion in parliament on premier Francis Bayrou. Le Monde says the Socialist Party under Faure made a responsible choice to work with "reconciliation" in mind at a difficult time for the slowing European economy, changes in government in US and Germany in 2025, and no settlement in Ukraine. The Socialist party made certain of key changes in the government's policies for the remainder of Macron's term as president as the price of it's support and for ongoing discussions.

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Macron returns to the Sorbonne, France's oldest University, for his second address to Europe, following th first in 2017, 7 years back. Then as now Macron presents a vision for Europe, with a unique role for France. Defense of the ideas and ideals of Europe built through centuries, in contrast to USA and China, and India, other centers of world civilization. It is worth a try to read the whole speech if you are a European or a friend of Europe, to get a sense of the European ideas that come from France, Italy and the Netherlands and Britain, and Germany. It presents ideas not just about defense, including Ukraine. Most of the speech is about how can Europe and European ideas be made to grow and prosper with all the changes happening in the world in technology, content that is less and less European for the children of Europe- less than 3% Macron says. How it can invest to meet the oversubsidizing that the US and China are doing, the investments that the US with Inflation Reduction Act for $1 trillion in spending and investment including chips and science, and the similar investments in China- how can Europe make investments of $1 trillion, and ways to generate the funding. And investing $1 trillion on a Europe wide basis with a plan and a set of goals to maintain European leadership in a world dominated by the US and China, and soon India. Macron says in 12 months plans have to be developed and set into motion for this new European effort. ...

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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The Quad meeting of the US, Australia, Japan and India took place in Hiroshima, as shown here. The leaders expressed their deep concern over the economic effects of the Ukraine war, including "food, fuel and energy security, critical supply chains. The meeting was to take place in Sydney, Australia, but was cancelled due to debt talks taking place between Biden and Republicans in the US Congress. The next Quad meeting is in India in 2024. Biden will meet pm Modi in the US June 22. PM Modi also meets Macron on Bastille Day in Paris on 14 July as a special guest of France.

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Energy subsidies costing billions of dollars are keeping gas prices lower in France than other parts of the EU till December. French president Macron says a series of crises from droughts, the war in Ukraine and energy shortages will lead to an end to the abundance and called for conservation, and restraint in energy use. France uses nuclear energy in much larger proportion than any other country making it dependent on Russian gas imports for only 17% of its consumption. 

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German industry says a complete shutoff of Russian gas to Germany would be catastrophic. Paul Krugman, an expert on international economics, looks at it in this NYT report. He says estimates show a worst case scenario drop of 2.1% in GDP for Germany to shutoff Russian supplies of energy. This estimate is from ECONtribute a thinktank from the Universities of Bonn and Cologne. This reluctance says Krugman to take the tough decisions such as turning off Russian energy supplies prolongs the war in Ukraine and its painful consequences in food scarcity and inflation all over Africa, Asia and Latin America. By comparison Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal went through severe downturns as a result of debt crises and economies that were mismanaged, with 27% loss of GDP in Greece, says Krugman.  Merkel's government argued for strict austerity policy during the eurozone financial crisis. By comparison says Krugman the shutoff of Russian energy supplies only imposes 2.1% loss in GDP that the German economy could handle.This estimate is also similar to estimates by Bruegel Institute and International Energy Agency, says Krugman. It would also speed up climate change action in Germany and set an example for Europe. German Economy minister Habeck's plan on alternative sources of renewable energy goes part of the way to accomplish this yet more needs to be done to correct the errors of policies from the Merkel administration that allowed German dependence on Russian energy to reach 55%. It is hard to comprehend why the Merkel administration could not be uneasy with something that would give Russia a huge leverage over the German economy and limit its voice in world affairs. It is now left to chancellor Scholz to correct the errors of the Merkel administration and of past members of his party the SPD, such as Mr. Steinmeier and the Schroeder SPD administration that preceded Merkel. Difficult questions have to be shouldered by the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. It is only through the courage shown by Annalena Baerbock of the Greens Party, in laying bare what these German policies were leading to, that Germany is recovering her voice in the world. In his speech to parliament making a U turn from the old policies Scholz credited Annalena Baerbock for the hard work in convincing Germans of the need for action.  ...

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Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...