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1.2-2 million barrels a day go from Iran's Kharg island through Straits of Hormuz for ship to ship transfers in South China Sea, then labeled Emirati oil and unloaded at refineries on Shandong coast. These refineries are called teapot refineries. In this way US sanctions are avoided. Shipments of oil were about 700,000 barrels a day before 2023. After 2023 this more than doubled. China gets this at a 10-15%  discount costing Iran about a third of revenues it would otherwise be able to sell this oil if it decided to work with the US in a new arrangement. This report in FR24 shows China as limiting it's relations with Iran to oil, careful to not let it affect more important trading relations with US European Union, and Germany. This is similar to the situation for Venezuela -which under a new arrangement the US has with Venezuela- now gets market prices for its oil increasing it's revenues substantially by about one third to benefit the Venezuelan people suffering from high inflation and economy wrecked by sanctions. ...

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Only the week before Tuesday April 7 Pakistan Foreign Minister Dhar failed to convince China to get involved. April 7th Tuesday in the US 1.30 pm US time, 8 pm Islamabad Pakistan time, China finally decided to jump in to convince Iran to accept peace talks in Islamabad. It is quite possible that behind the scenes the US was talking with China which has a 25 Year Comprehensive Agreement with Iran signed in 2021 that is the main support for the Iranian economy. China acted to reassure Iran that talks in Islamabad would proceed smoothly, and persuade Iran to accept ceasefire and talks. Why? Knowing that brinksmanship by US and Iran would lead to unforeseen consequences and hurt China's economy with oil price volatility as well as  hurt the US economy, and hurt the prospects for the planned May14-15 visit by DJT to Beijing to improve economic and political ties, both China and the US wanted to do everything to prevent this from happening. The result a hastily arranged peace talks in Islamabad so that by 4 am Islamabad time on Wednesday or 6.30 pm US time on Tuesday evening the ceasefire had already been agree to by US and Iran, according to this report in The Guardian from Pakistan. The crux of the matter was that it would affect US and China's economy with oil volatility, and US-China relations by jeopardizing May 14-15 revised date for DJT visit to Beijing. This good sense prevailed over all the war rhetoric and the media information and disinformation. It is confusing because of all the misinformation, but becomes clear when one understands this in the context provided in this report from Pakistan by the Guardian. Why Pakistan? For Pakistan the missile attack the day before of a Saudi petrochemical complex by Iran was drawing Saudis into the war and Pakistan has signed a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia that requires Pakistan to support Saudi Arabia if it gets into a war. For Pakistan it was a fragile situation that would be a catastrophe with unforeseen consequences on its economy. Already schools are closed for 1 month in Pakistan and oil is in short supply, paying for it at $115 or $125 a barrel would put severe strain on Pakistan. Who wins, who loses is being told in the media- much less on the good sense that prevailed  the efforts and the predicament of the large powers China, India, the US, and Germany, European Union, the poorer countries, all hurt economically, caught in a war they do not want, do not need. ...

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Worsening economic conditions in Iran in 2014. Inflation running at 32% and the government facing a cash shortage.

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Samsung stock price up 144% Intel up 255% in 5 months of 2026, as the S&P makes eight weeks of consecutive gains May 23 2026. Companies in the S&P 500 trade at 21 times their expected earnings over the next 12 months, the 10 year average is about 19 times their expected earnings. The war in Iran, the war in Ukraine, and the massive misallocation of investment to AI are risks for the US economy, yet the US stock market continues to be robust.

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As the media in the US and world cover this issue the focus is on the war and Hormuz. In the background a different situation is playing out. US Iran peace talks with Pakistan/ Qatar mediation June 13 2026- different factions in Iran RGC and Foreign Ministry+mediators with different positions  put out conflicting reports throughout May and June. The mediators Pakistan, Turkey and also Qatar/Saudis which also have a keen interest in limiting the damage to their economies, are taking one position working with the Foreign Ministry and elected Iranian president Pezeshkian who won 16 million votes 55% in the 2024 election. Inside Iran the RGC under new leaders is pursuing its own interests that does not put the economy first in conflict with Pezeshkian and public opinion in Iran for putting the economy first.  Pakistan faces grave risks with its large population, the risks to the economy from oil prices at $125 a barrel to its balance of payments crisis. Turkey also faces risks to its economy with high inflation. Saudis and Qatar see their economic prospects as limited and need to cut economic projects as oil revenues decline. In this situation the US goal of getting nuclear material out of the country is now put into a phased process based on conditions for every step of the way by the US negotiators, yet with memorandum of understanding to accomodate a changing situation. This policy may also be now agreed on between China and the US, and to some extent Russia. This can be seen as playing out and media does not talk about it. China openly greets DJT in Beijing and US and China agree to work things out in May 2026. China cuts its oil use by 3 million barrels a day as shown in a WSJ report this week. This is a major step. UAE leaves OPEC and calls for cuts in oil prices. Next Delsy Rodriguez of Venezuela visits New Delhi, India, and meets to set up economic relationships that include large purchases of Iranian oil to replace supplies lost in Hormuz and what India can offer in exchange for these purchases to Venezuela, including infrastructure building support. This points to a Win-Win for the US, China, India, as oil needs are met from places other than Hormuz for major users of energy. China may have realized that its prolific use of oil for 25 years of rapid development may have led to wasteful use of oil- some of that wasteful use can now be cut- 3 million barrels of oil use cut accepting some slower growth for quality growth. Germany and Japan are using less energy per unit of GDP and China will be looking at their model of energy use as an example to follow. This has huge potential for limiting climate change, as without China and India becoming more efficient in energy use, nothing the US could do was going to make a big difference for climate change. This may be one of the unintended benefits of the Hormuz situation in 2026 - ways to cut energy use for climate change action. And ways to move away from Hormuz and Persian Gulf for supplies so that poorer countries and advanced economies have to pay less for oil helping the poorer countries (Pakistan, Turkey) survive and grow, helping middle economic status rapidly modernizing economies  continue rapid growth (China and India), and helping advanced economies with cost of living hurting the majority of their people (US and EU).  With less money Russia, Iran and other countries will face serious constraints for more military expenditures as for the first time alternative supplies (other than Hormuz) and lower oil prices are being brought about in a newly unfolding plan of the US, China, India and other nations, that is not discussed in today's world media headlines. This means when seen objectively there is room for optimism based on the one thing going for the US, China, India, EU, a host of poorer nations in Asia /Africa/ LatinAmerica, the  5 largest development blocs and population blocs today, which is that the US and China can agree on being custodians for peaceful development accepting their responsibilities for guaranteeing this world order- as DJT and Xi Jinping stated in Beijing in May 2026- with the US aim of nuclear free Iran also accepted by China, Russia, India, and large sections of the Iranian population that put the economy first. ...

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  US reaches agreement that would restore oil supplies and bring down oil prices. The supply chains may have to be reconstituted for replacing much of the 20% of the oil that flows through Hormuz if the US, Europe,China and India, Japan, rest of the world are to gain from this experience. The only way to understand the change of mind of the DJT US government and the Saudis/UAE/Qatar for bringing an end to the war without immediately fulfilling required nuclear conditions is from the Saudi point of view it has sought to avoid damage to its oil facilities from Iranian drone and missile attacks. From the US point of view it may see that the US + ramped up Venezuelan production by 2027-2028 with increased push for supplies in other parts of the world with better security than Hormuz, could make up for most of the loss in supply from Hormuz. For the remainder acceleration of the renewal energy in Europe and in China, India could reduce dependence on oil from Saudis/Iran.  US Energy Information Administration forecast is for oil prices currently $103 for Brent crude oil to stabilize at $89 at the end of 2026 and $79 in 2027. The year started in 2026 at $60 per barrel. The UAE oil agency ADNOC says it would take 4 months to get 80% of production back on stream and full flows by 1st quarter 2027. Rystad Energy estimates repair and restoration at oil facilities to cost $58 billion. The MAGA base which opposed wars by Bush and Obama in the region would then look at it this way. The billions that Obama poured into Iran for Iran to rebuild its nuclear program would not happen again, as the US would continue its sanctions till all nuclear materials are removed from Iran. Iran would stall in negotiations that are now put off with only a Memorandum to show for commitment of Iran- though an agreement would only be a piece of paper that Iran may not implement as the failed Obama agreement showed- but yet not have the billions of dollars to support its nuclear program. It would give the US, Israel, and the world 10-15 years in which to respond to another nuclear program by Iran. Iran will need $270 billion to repair the damage to industrial facilities, which shows the cost of the war for the Iranian people just to get a nuclear weapon is prohibitive, considering that the Iranian economy was already in trouble before the war. Inflation and the overall economy will be in difficult shape for many years. Public sentiment in Iran may change the future course of Iran away from the course currently pursued. The entire Middle East  region has not benefitted from its dependence on oil. For the rest of the world finding alternative sources of supply is the best way and EU, China, India should accelerate renewable technologies and goals for energy independence shortening the transition from fossil fuels. ...

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DJT on Iran and the midterms-  "voters understand that" about Iran not having a nuclear weapon and calls for Saudis, Qatar, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, to sign the Abraham Accords. He says the electon results in some states May 26 showed Republicans and much of the Nation with large majorities for candidates endorsed by DJT- voters understand the president's policy to not let Iran go for a nuclear weapon. This WSJ report cites concerns of Republicans about the midterms yet as soon as it appeared that the president was about to reach a  deal that would be similar to Obama's- that failed and financed Iran's third effort for nuclear weapons- over the weekend, as soon as this appeared to be the course many Republicans and the WSJ Editorial Board, said this was a bad idea. The president paused that effort. At a Cabinet meeting DJT said  about the Arab states signing the Abraham Accords- the Saudis and Qatar, Oman, Turkey,Jordan, “I think they owe that to us to be honest.”  “I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t sign." On Iran getting funds from the US which could go right into making a nuclear weapons program again as it did after the Obama administration did this, DJT had this to say- “We’re not talking about any easing of sanctions, no giving money. When they behave properly…we’ll let them have their money.” Repeatedly at campaign events and rallies across the country for 10 years DJT has said Obama made a serious mistake in handing over funds that were put right into building a nuclear weapons program with a ballistic weapons program, for a third time. This has happened before in North Korea. Obama allowed 11 tons of uranium enriched at 20% to be shipped to Russia- that did not stop Iran from a new nuclear weapons program and a threat to Israel. There is also considerable Republican skepticism about any deal that does not remove nuclear weapons. About sending the Iranian uranium to Russia or China DJT said- “No. That would not make me comfortable.”  About Iran's economy DJT said inflation is "at 250% "and they are negotiating on fumes." DJT calls it a "conflict" (the blockade not committing US troops) and not an open ended war. ...

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Guardian's Essay on the War and how it has undone Iran pushed it back by decades with internal suppression of dissent, the diversion of vital resources that could be used for building the economy and standards of living, failing to build a sovereign investment fund like Norway and other countries setting aside money for a rainy day. Much of the young educated voters and business in markets is in the cities in Asia and this class has to be integrated into development to create advanced developed nations instead of a small class of people controlling the nation's resources under an ideological or religious sectarian leadership. It failed in Spain in the Franco years, and now in Venezuela and Iran, Pakistan, because it does not grasp what happened in Asia- in China, in India, in South Korea where even under communist (China), military (South Korea), the integration of the students, middle class business, all sectors of society, leads to all sections of society building advanced societies improving education, healthcare, and modernization infrastructure, joining Europe and the US to build the future of science and technology. ...

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JD Vance and the effort to reach the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran using its neighbors Egypt, Pakistan, and Qatar, Turkey in negotiations. Seen from the perspective of Asia- of all the Middle East countries, of Asian countries India, China and Japan, all these countries were involved in different ways to get that memorandum and 90 days of talks on the nuclear and other issues for Iran to access funds to stabilize its economy now in free fall. Each of these countries have prevailed in discussions that were conducted privately but whose result are amply evident, persuading DJT and Vance, Rubio, to take a different approach. And each of these countries have a major stake in ending the state of war that led to the events including the missile attacks and the bombing that also raised the price of oil and gas, fertilizer and restricted supply to the point that each country would suffer. There is now a collective will of all these countries and of countries like Brazil and Africa/Latin America to push for a new path. This is not understood in the media, because this was never before tried by previous administrations, and comes when the world as a whole is seeking a new approach.  ...

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...

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By April 22 2026 a measured and careful response from the US president as the US Naval blockade stays on and US exercises patient waiting. Iran fails to save its economy from disruptions, massive loss of jobs as supply chains fail, and inflation exceeds 50%, two million in job losses. The longer the war carries on and the naval blockade remains in place purely to hold on to enriched uranium for weapon systems and ballistic missiles, the larger the economic losses.

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Impact of $100-$138 a barrel oil prices from Iran War on US economy is modest - stable unemployment inflation at 2.9% instead of 2.7% and decline by 4 tenths of a percentage point in GDP growth. This is the view of 50 economists at banks, companies and research consulting gorups surveyed by WSJ March 16-18 cited in both the WSJ and her inthe NYT. NYT says unless the prices reach $200 which is unlikely, there won't be a recession. The reason is that the US is self sufficient in oil needs and exports oil and gas to Europe, and now to India and Japan. In fact in the domestic economy oil producing states in the Permian Basin including Texas, Wyoming, New Mexico and state of Alaska will actually see more growth. US will also generate more revenue from oil exports. US will also be able to leverage the situation to bring Venezuelan production with additional investments in upgrading the Venezuelan oil fields from American oil companies. This will be more attractive at higher oil prices and revenue generated will be sent to benefit the Venezuelan people. What it does affect lis ow income people with long commutes to work in the US. ...

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More than a retreat it gives the US, EU, India, China and the nations in Asia and Africa, Latin America most affected by higher oil prices and lower economic growth a time to pause and rethink dependence on the Gulf region for oil supplies. It is not mentioned in the media yet there has to be a link between the US president's visit to Beijing and Beijing's support for a normalized US China relationship, and offering its support for a settlement. This gives EU, China, India, Japan, and poorer nations in Africa, Asia, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, some relief from reduced access to oil supplies. US is also planning a supply from Venezuela to India to take pressure off oil supplies in Asia by offering Venezuela as an alternative source. China is in many ways joining the US to bring about a denuclearized Middle East, doing it in a quieter way with Iranian public opinion making a shift to put its economic development ahead of missile development. As the two sides have different interpretations and it is still only a Memorandum of Understanding it is not a situation where the US is sending billions of dollars to support the military in Iran as Obama had done. Attention will shift to the Iranian economy over the next 12 months.  US conveys that it has nothing to gain from wrecking the Iranian economy or nation as the Iranian people if avote were held today would clearly choose putting the economy first by huge margins considering the widespread protests in Iran in 2025 that started this crisis. The US naval blockade was effective and is always an option, with US and partners having greater experience in the situation presented by the narrow straits in Hormuz. Arab partners also acted with restraint and is itself an opportunity for Iran to change direction. China's making cuts of 3 million barrels a day in oil supplies from Hormuz is itself along with acceleration of renewable energy in both China and India is one of the dividends of this crisi. Another is the gradual shift to alternative supplies from other regions of the world so that Hromuz region can no longer dictate oil prices in the world. Accelerating Venezuelan and UAE, US, other oil and gas  supply growth will also put increase supply and renewables reduce  demand growth as a result of the crisis to break the hold on oil prices of the oil cartels of Qatar, and Saudis. As a transition fuel oil can be be kept below $50 a barrel, not at prices at the whims of the princes in the Middle East at the expense of the people of the Arab world from Egypt the most populous and Tunisia, Morocco, to the Muslim nations such as Turkey and Pakistan,Iran itself which bore the brunt of this Hormuz crisis. The US has several priorities including in its relations with oil cartels dominated Mexico that  brings drugs and people across US borders, with other nations in EU and Asia that have benefitted through deindustrialization in the US leaving it poorer across a vast part of America. Advancing objectives in one area such as denuclearization does not mean not addressing priorities at home and in relations with other regions. China shares American interest in denuclearization of the Middle East this should now be put to the test. It is an entirely different situation in 2026 than what weak leaders from Bush to Obama allowed to happen by  wars in the Middle East - the US naval blockades of 2025/2026 are entirely different in cost in terms of men and dollar investment and used to convey America's determination not to waste vital resources of the Nation. The best policy is not to pursue policy for absolute wins but make intelligent choices and in some situations pause to reflect on the best course of action and other ways to reach goals. By getting China and the US as world powers for denuclearization even though this is not vocally said, both gain and both will come up with solutions. ...

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The Iranian response to the tighter sanctions of the Trump administration are seen in this report from Tehran in the WSJ. The economic arm of the Revolutionary Corps that helps run the Iranian economy managing civil construction projects, oil projects, and commercial real estate, is now led not by a general from the Iraq-Iran war. The new head is Saeed Mohammed who has a PhD. in civil engineering and has managed civil construction projects. He hopes to use his company's resources to fill the void left by foreign investors complying with sanctions and withdrawing. The companies run by the new leader are run on management efficiency principles leaving behind the revolutionary fervour of the previous period. As CEO of Khatam Construction Base, 50 year old Saeed Mohammed plans to stabilize the economy and soften the harsh effects of the sanctions of the Trump administration on Iran. He plans to work with other private companies inside Iran to shore up the Iranian economy till the sanctions regime and the differences with the U.S. are settled. ...

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 JD Vance as key negotiator of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran announced June 17 2026 in France at the G-7 Summit in Les Bains, France. Vice President Vance says-about why everything not being put in writing. “There’s a lot of discussion, the MOU, the gentlemen’s agreements, the final deal—words don’t matter, ladies and gentlemen, we’re about verification.” As with the detailed previous agreements the words have little meaning if the intention is to build a nuclear weapon while all the time saying it was for peaceful purposes.  Vance does not mention that in the next 10 years the worst hit from Hormuz are the poor countries Pakistan, India, Arab World in North Africa including Egypt, and even a developing country when it comes to per capita incomes way lower than Europe like China. There will be all these countries backing the US as high oil prices mean economic catastrophe for these countries. This is really what the president DJT means by he did this to prevent economic catastrophe. China has sustained the Iranian economy through this period and China has clearly stated that it expects denuclearization, expects Iran to reverse policy to make a nuclear weapon- as it is the crux of the memorandum's intent. Without it the US would not enter any agreement and there would be no war. Opening up Hormuz is critical for these countries including China to continue their industrial modernization. Vance says- “We have all of the cards." “If the Iranians want the benefit of the bargain they have to give us the things that are necessary to get those benefits.”  There is in Iran itself three groups, one the people, second the elected government of Pezeshkian elected in 2014 to reduce the cost of living and improve living standards, and third the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The entire Arab World, the entire Asiatic Muslim world represented by Pakistan and neighbors find this Memorandum as a lifeline, a step away from the brink of economic catastrophe, which is not shown in the media, all these countries pushing for their very life to get the US to give a chance to two of the three parts of the Iranian people and government (who will ultimately decide Iran's long term course as a part of West Asia as a regional economic development and modernization zone). There are huge stakes here for West Asia and East Asia in this Memorandum of basically intent on the part of the US (consistent with its history and purpose as Nation), and this remains the key guarantor for this opportunity for Iranian people and people of West and East Asia in their progress to modernization and economic progress similar to the path taken by Europe and the US after many struggles of their own (not to mention the Civil War that made the US and two World Wars that made the European Union).    ...

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US Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed by DJT and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, May 17 2026, with Pakistan as mediator. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar tried to bring the two sides together within Iran the RGC Revolutionary Guard Corps military and the president elected in 2024 (to tackle cost of living and other economic issues). and narrow their differences with the US. A key factor was China and the US president called China's actions "fantastic" in achieving the signed agreement to work out the details within 60-90 days of talks. Without China's help in imports and other assistance Iran's economy would be hard to sustain. China's own interests are best served by maintaining peace in the region as it continues to develop and modernize its economy. Russia also supported the agreement. Another contributor was India by setting an example for modernization and economic development as the true pathway for the people of West Asia, by bringing UAE, Egypt and other Arab nations in North Africa such as Morocco together in the direction of economic development and showing that cooperation in the region including with Israel is the best way forward. From the perspective of long term future of the region the presence of Modi and India at the G-7 meeting next to Macron and DJT shows there is now a G-8, with India joining Japan as two key Asian nations in the G-8. In this way the administration has achieved something that was never possible in either the old G-8 (that included Russia) under previous administrations after 2000. DJT's meeting with Putin in Alaska, and his visit to Beijing for discussions with Xi Jinping in 2025 and 2026, achieved the G-8 setting with India plus keeping China and Russia fully engaged in separate one on one arranged talks. This is a rare feat achieved in 2026 for the US, China, India and Russia, EU, Germany, that has never been done before to the lasting credit of the leaders DJT, president Xi, prime minister Modi, president Putin, and chancellor Merz- to their patience even in times of disagreement, their efforts to persevere when times were rough, and their foresight and wisdom in seeking agreement around what they shared in common.  ...

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This article in the Atlantic Council September 17, 2024, shows that the world may be fixating on the Straits of Hormuz when it should really be focusing on the Red Sea shipping for the Suez Canal. The Iranians ship 1.5 million barrels a day of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, and closing it off would close off the oil revenues that sustain its economy. Wald writes that even if the Iranians in a crisis would clsoe off its waters to shipping another route exists in the Straits of Hormuz through UAE waters when needed by oil shipping and it has been used by British ships. The Red Sea and Suez presents risks coming from Houthi rebels supported by Iran, who have attacked the US Navy ships in the region.

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At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

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Bill Spindle of the WSJ describes the Iranian Quds military organization led by Suleimani that operates alongside the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon as Iran intervenes in regional conflicts across borders. Using the militia and Quds Iran is supporting the Assad regime in Syria, and fighting Islamic State in Iraq. Quds has also supported Shiites in Yemen. The problem with the interventions may be that they may have created new problems from which Iran has gained little. The intervention on the side of the Assad regime created an opening for Sunnis supporting Islami State insurgency in both Syria and Iraq, creating another problem for Iran, and weakening the Shiite led government in Baghdad with the loss of Mosul Iraq's second largest city. The cost is in tens of billions of dollars for the intervention at a time when the Iranian economy is suffering from tighter sanctions because of an expanding nuclear development effort. Suleimani is head of the Quds military force, and Alaeddin Bouroujerdi is head of the foreign policy and national security committee in Iran's parliament, who says Iran is now a powerful force in the region. But at a heavy price and complicating the effort of Sunnis and Shiites to live side by side for centuries in the Middle East. There are no serious benefits for the Iranian people suffering from severe shortages at home, a devaluing currency, cost to subsidize other countries, getting into and exacerbating military conflicts. Prime minister Rouhani says- "Until when should our economy subsidize our policies? Lets have our foreign policy subsidize our economy, and see what happens." ...

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Violation of international law or tacit approval of drug states and suppression of the election results in Venezuela- position taken by Oxford's Dill and Germany's Steinmeier is itself controversial. Merz's is realistic. For those concerned about international law is it restricted to any particular period? Then the British policy in China supported by the other powers Japan, Russia, Germany and France to suppress the Boxer rebellion in 1901 and expand Treaty ports that forced opium on China in the period 1850 to the 1930's was not just a egregious violation, horrendous violation of basic human rights on a scale unimaginable in modern times. Much of the prosperity of the Netherlands and Britain, France was achieved through such policy in Asia. Yet Oxford's Dill and Steinmeier have chosen not to look at European history and the Empires of Europe in Asia and Africa for 300 years since 1700. By comparison Venezuelan action comes after the great patience of well meaning people, and the silence of elites in the US and Europe about massive migration encouraged by the regime in Venezuela of one third of its population about 9 million people to neighboring countries including the US, and suppression of free elections, complete mismanagement leading to 150% inflation destroying its economy.  It was not only these elites in the US and Europe that were responsible through their silence, but also the Bush and Obama wars in the Middle East which sapped the resources of the United States. Why is this happening when the Venezuelan people are the main benificiaries of the action taken by the US president to send in its military. All oil sales revenue will no longer go to a corrupt "drugs" state but be used to directly help the Venezuelan people achieve a better standard of living, bring down inflation  and invest in modernization, in these unusual circumstance a program run by Bessent at US Treasury. Those who dislike the unconventional but well meaning style of the US president and his occasional poor choice of words, find every opportunity for criticism even ignoring facts and common sense. Under Chavez and Maduro the Venezuelan economy was simply mismanaged to the point of being destroyed and an affluent country reduced to poverty and inflation so bad that one third or 9 milllion people left for neighboring countries. On this Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier have only this to say- it is somebody's else's problem. we will remain silent. Similarly on introducing nuclear weapons in the Middle East -where most nation states have intermittent wars and economic mismanagement for the last 50 years the artificial states from the Ottoman Empire of Syria and Iraq, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sudan every state impoverished by war and economic mismanagement - Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier in Germany also have only this to say- it is somebody else's problem not ours, we will remain silent. ...

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Countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal are severely affected by the war in Persian Gulf region in other ways that access to oil and fertilizer supplies. They are affected when the Gulf economy collapses and expatriate workers are laid off or return. The situation is dire in these countties because as the DW.com says remittances exceed exports in the case of Pakistan. Is such a model viable asks DW.com. All these countries are also affected by internal strife, with new governments in place in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka after protests over economic conditions and jobs. The entire Middle East model for Gulf countries including Saudi, Iran are also facing a new situation as the Western countries, US and EU and Asia shift to nuclear energy, solar energy and find ways to conserve at an accelerated pace so that there will be less dependence on fossil fuels. Recently India announced on its national television channel that one third of peak demand is already being met by solar energy. India's PM Modi says in rallies across the country that he would make it possible for households to have zero electric bills because of solar panels on homes. Germany and Japan are further along on this path to create a renewable energy reliance and phasing out fossil fuels. ...

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Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

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Cordoba and Gurman cover the Justice Department case against Raul Castro, 94 years, of Cuba who runs the country. Jim Ratcliffe of the US government visited Cuba recently to let the Cuban government know that it had to make changes and there was a limited window. Raul Castro was defense minister, and is brother of Fidel Castro, the revolutionary who fought to overthrow the government of dictator Batista, made some short term improvements, but failed badly for the Cuban people with a policy that confronted the US and brought foreign powers to the western hemisphere. China could remain communist, keep Mao's memory, and adopt the market system, to develop the modern economy it has because of adopting western ideas, science and technology. And build what is otherwise a free market economy, and became a key trade partner, briefly an ally of the US as the Soviet Union collapsed- nothing like this happened in Cuba. Tourism was used simply as a way to protect the rest of the completely centralized economy and a state within a state built through an elite that ran a separate section of the armed forces under Raul Castro, kept a regimented society. Even that has failed. Nowhere in Latin America is there so many signs of failure, and it has also brought down societies that copied the rhetoric and nationalist slogans such as Venezuela and Colombia. In some parts of Mexico the Cuban rhetoric still sounds good but the reality is starkly different, Mexico itself is run on a model closer to that in the US, and Mexico has serious problems in civil society relating to immigration and drugs in its relationship with the US. ...