LyrArc Article Gist
US Defense Spending charts as percentage of GDP since 1929 startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940 in World War II. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point), as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40%. Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by ignoring costs of military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to do this.

LyrArc Article Gist
A report from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the impact of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 on the wealth of American households. Between 2007 and 2010 says the report the median net worth of American families went down by 39%, from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010. This had the result of putting Americans back to the level of net worth in 1992. Much of the loss in net worth was from asset value reductions. The median value of stock market based retirement accounts decreased by 7% to $44,000. The biggest drop was in housing values- falling by 42% to $55,000 in the three years. Americans are working down their debt- a quarter of families are debt free, credit card balances declined 16% to $2600 from $3100 from the period 2007 to 2010 of the report. Yet the median level of family debt remains the same as more families support their kids education by taking out college loans. Median income fell about 8% to $45,800 in 2010, with income losses especially large in the manufacturing industries as the U.S. manufacturing sector worked to improve competitiveness. Other factors supplement this picture. The burden of college loans increased to over $1 trillion for middle and working class families. With the burden of college debt young people were more likely to delay buying first homes, indefinitely dealying recovery in the housing market. Seniors on retirement see interest income from savings negligible with low interest rates and higher risk in a volatile stock market. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Pulte at FHA - $200 billion mortgage bonds purchases to reduce interest rates below 6%. 2 DJT executive orders to cut red tape in housing construction and asking Federal Reserve to be strong in housing markets. The goal is to ease supply in housing markets and reduce mortgage rates to reduce costs of getting a new home.

LyrArc Article Gist
A March 4, 2014 conference call by Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen preceded the March 18-19, 2014 Fed meeting minutes show. The conference call and minutes show Yellen and Fed governors concerned that the Fed's plans about interest rates had been misunderstood by financial markets at Yellen's first talk with media and from the minutes of the previous meeting. The miscommunication relates to how impatient the governors are about raising rates. The conference call by Yellen shows her working style of lots of preparation before meetings. The Fed's position remains to be supportive of financial markets and careful to support the economic recovery.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted 7 to 3 to continue a policy of keeping the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels "at least through mid-2013." Presidents of the Federal Reserve regional banks- Fisher of Dallas, Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, and Plosser of Philadelphia preferred different language that would only say exceptionally low rates for "for an extended period."

LyrArc Article Gist
With inflation low at about 1.5% for an inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve, this article by Neil Irwin points to the low unemployment rate of 4.3% as the determining factor for raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter percentage point in June 2017.The Federal Reserve under Janet Yellen raised interest rates for the second time in 2017 and the fourth time in 18 months, as it sees a tightening in the jobs market.

LyrArc Article Gist
Startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis in the adjoining article next to this one- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point) as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40% in World War II.  Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by not doing military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to be enough to do this.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Eavis describes the results of the new Federal Reserve LISCC's determination under Tarullo, Gibson and Taylor, to bring discipline to financial markets and reduce systemic risk. Over the last 3 years Goldman Sachs has spent $16.3 billion in buybacks, about 70% of profits, to return money to shareholders and improve metrics such as earnings per share. This strategy will now have to be reversed. With the Fed stress tests in Feb. 2015 the focus is on banks with large trading desks. Goldman unlike other banks has counted on a strategy of preserving a large trading operation in the hope that this will earn the bank larger profits when the market recovers. This does not sit well with the Fed in the 2015 stress tests- showing a $23.8 billion loss if the stock market fell by 60% in a crisis, leaving Goldman with a bare minimum in reserves. Goldman will now have to reduce the buybacks to add to reserves after the current stress tests, and pare down its trading desk operation.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jerome Powell, the new head of the U.S. Federal Reserve values continuity in policy, suggesting that the U.S. central bank will gradually raise interest rates in 2018. A raise is expected at the March 2018 Fed meeting. Powell said at his swearing in ceremony- "While the challenges we face are always evolving, the Fed's approach will remain the same. We are in the process of gradually normalizing both interest rate policy and our balance sheet with a view to extending the recovery."  Five interest rate increases since December 2015 have taken the short term benchmark rate to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%. During 2018 3-4 rate increases are expected.

Powell is seen as a consensus oriented leader with a focus on careful evaluation and rigorous study. Powell is pushing for a continuation of the Fed's policy to improve transparency, and responsiveness. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Federal Reserve dropped the rate of growth of the U.S. economy from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2019. With slowing growth the Federal Reserve plans no interest rate increases in 2019. Sentiment on the Federal Open Market Committee is for one rate increase in 2020 and none in 2021. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates five times in five consecutive quarters to the current range of 2.25% -2.5%.

LyrArc Article Gist
In an Op-ed in the Washington Post Mehmet Oz, Head of Medicaid and Medicare says while banning use of Medicaid and Medicare funds for transgender medical procedures- "America’s children aren’t lab mice. They deserve quality care backed by sound evidence and should not be conscripted as test subjects in risky experiments that cause irreversible harm. Federal government is banning the use of Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program funds to subsidize sex-rejecting medical interventions for minors and prohibiting hospitals participating in Medicare and Medicaid from performing them. Dr Oz says "extraordinary interventions such as cross-sex hormones and double mastectomies require extraordinary evidence, especially when children are involved." He says the evidence is lacking and cites information from many countries. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Calomiris of Columbia University, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should increase the cash reserve requirement for U.S. banks to prevent a surge in inflation. He points out that excesss reserves at banks stand at about $1.5 trillion. He suggests the Fed should take early action to prevent a jump in lending and credit creation- a pattern seen in the past after several years of dampened credit and lending.

LyrArc Article Gist
Federal Reserve proposals in Dec 2011 for large U.S. banks leave capital cushions at 5% of assets. This phases in the higher 7% of assets rule for capital reserves and a surcharge of upto 2.5% based on bank risk levels under new Basel III regulations for implementation in 2016.