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Brazil's large oil find in the Tupi field in the deep waters of the Atlantic ocean. It will take several years to develop and could produce half a million barrels a day. Brazil has shown exceptional ability in deepwater exploration and drilling and has expertise in this area.

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Tiny sheikdoms such as Kuwait were set up in the heydays of the British Empire- in 2026 Kuwait's 1.5 million residents and 3 million expatriates face a completely stalled economy following the blocking of the Hormuz Straits. The kingdom is dependent now on $1 trillion reserve fund as it seeks to resume oil exports.

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The largest ever drawdown of oil reserves is shown in this video report in WSJ- Biden has released 180 million barrels of the oil reserves from 400 million barrels in reserves. This has reduced the sharp surge in oil prices as Russia restricts supplies of oil and western sanctions are tightened on Russian oil.

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The US will draw down oil reserves by 180 million barrels in 6 months to bring down oil prices. Oil prices dropped by 4%.

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Filling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil prices.

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The U.S. and the EU join together for stronger economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions affecting large Russian banks ability to raise capital in financial markets are likely to affect the Russian economy. Russia was suspended for export credit and development finance. VTB Bank was one of three more Russian banks added to the list of banks with economic sanctions. The EU took similiar action against Russian state owned banks and imposed an arms embargo in July end 2014.

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Analysts say the second phase of building China's strategic petroleum reserve will begin in the first half of 2011. This addition is expected to be for 168 million barrels, adding to the 100 million barrels in the reserve. China International Capital Corporation, a Beijing investment bank, says this stocking up and the rising inventories at Chinese oil companies could increase oil prices by $6.50 a barrel in 2011 and 2012. Existing Chinese reserves cover only 12 days of demand, compared to the 103 million barrels or 40 days for the US strategic petroleum reserve. This increases the uncertainty in world oil markets. A daily addition of 150,000 barrels a day would meet one third of the expected second phase in 2011, and this amounts to about 10% of the International Energy Agency's forecast increase in global demand for 2011. At the same time if oil gets too expensive, China could decide to wait for a more opportune time to build stocks.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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A coordinated release of petroleum reserves from the International Energy Agency and 30 participating countries is planned in the event something like the attack on Saudi oil facilities happens. About 5% of the worlds oil supplies were put out in the attack. If 7% are lost then the IEA would step in to call for release of petroleum reserves of individual countries. As of July 2019 1.5 billion barrels of oil are in storage in emergency reserves. U.S. SPR reserves are estimated at 644 million barrels and the figures are 100 million barrels for each of Germany, Japan and France, and China at 344 million barrels. These man made caverns are as long as 2000 feet.

The last time this release happened was in 2011 after the Libyan war disruptions. 

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As Australia lacks its own strategic petroleum reserves and with shipping security in the Persian Gulf threatened, Australia has to find a way to meet a oil supply shock. Australia is the only country in the 30 member International Energy Agency that does not have enough storage for 3 months of oil imports. The U.S. is considering opening its emergency oil reserves to Australia as the country plays a larger role in security in the region.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar visits the local subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation in Colombo to get some idea of the fuel supply situation in Sri Lanka. Facing a shortage of foreign exchange reserves and payment due for its debt in 2022 Sri Lanka has cut imports, including oil imports. India has offered a $1 billion line of credit and other assistance to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka is also getting financial help from the IMF.

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Russia's takes on a tough negotiating position in the winter of 2025-26, just when the Russian economy suffers decline in oil revenues. Opaque loans in the defense sector that make up 25% of loans or $202 billion could be a problem. Cost of the war in 2025 are over $200 billion. Other problems are the finances of Lukoil and Rosneft, the increasing amount of sanctioned oil that is sitting on tankers in the sea with no buyers. Gazprom has a loss of $12.9 billion in 2025, with cash reserves depleted from $22 billion in 2022 to $6-8 billion in Jan 2026, with $20 billion of additional debt taken on. Rosneft profit dropped 70% in 2025 to $3.6 billion. Consumer spending is down by about 9% in December 2025 compared to 2024. Yet this is unlikely to lead to social or political problems in Russia. It will make it more difficult to finance the war compared to previous years. The Ukraine economy needs $135 billion for the next 2 years for funding the budget which now depoends on laons from the EU. Both Russia and Ukraine are fighting an exhausting war as it enters the fifth year of the war, exhausting their economies and their population, as the leaders of Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement. ...

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A plan appears to have been put in place by the U.S. and the European Union countries to strengthen the American position in negotiations with Iran underway in Istanbul. The impact on oil prices and on U.S. and E.U. growth as a consequence of higher oil prices, especially when the eurozone countries faced lowed growth, was one of the ways Iran hope to blunt the tightening of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. It now appears from information released by the International Energy Agency that a plan was implemented by the Saudis in recent months to build up reserve supplies. At the same time a similiar effort was being implemented to increase production in Iraq and Libya so that it would add to reserves added by the Saudis. Daily output from OPEC countries increased by about 1.4 millon barrels in the Sept 2011- March 2012 period, as the confrontation with Iran took shape with increasing pressure using sanctions on Iranian oil, according to the IEA. Of this 1.4 million barrels a day increase, one third is from the Saudis and the rest from Iraq and Libya, according to IEA. In March 2012, OPEC oil production increased by 135,000 barrels a day to 31.4 million barrels, mostly from higher output in Iraq. The Saudis have filled up domestic oil inventories and placed an additional 10 million barrels of oil in storage close to markets in Europe and Japan. This suggests that this was part of a quietly implemented plan in cooperation with the U.S. and the EU countries to increase the effectiveness of sanctions and protect global oil supplies from disruptions; even as the U.S. pressured Japan, S. Korea, India and other countries to reduce purchases of Iranian oil. The economies of India, the EU and other countries were already beginning to feel the impact of higher oil prices in the 1st quarter of 2012....

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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...

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US diesel supplies are tight in the northeast with prices up 37% in recent months. The Biden administration is preparing for the release of 1 million barrels of diesel in the northeast using the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve.

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Saudi Arabia's efforts to push oil prices higher have fallen flat with deep discounted oil sales by Russia to China. Russia has overtaken the Saudis as the largest supplier of oil to China. Saudi supplies to China have fallen to 14% of imports, while Russia's supplies to China have increased to 14%. China is building up inventory as a reserve capacity. Saudis cut production last month to push prices higher but prices haven't budged and stayed at about $75 a barrel. Russia is discounting by $26 a barrel and offsets the extra $6 it costs to ship Russian oil. 

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Efforts by the Mexican government to sell the constitutional changes for reviving the oil industry. TV ads show children with hands wet from crude oil running through fields, then the slogan appears: "No to privatization, Yes to the energy reform." The purpose is to convince a skeptical public that oil resources will be safe and not given away to foreigners. Also an issue is whether the secondary laws will allow foreign oil companies to show Mexican oil reserves in their reserve figures, and whether the changes will attract interest from foreign oil companies to bring new technology and investment.