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Mexico, Chile, Columbia and Peru will sign an agreement in Cali, Columbia, eliminating tariffs on 90% of merchandise trade between their countries and set a 7 year timetable for the remaining 10%. Visa requirements for citizens of these countries have been removed and plans are being developed for a common market. These countries have a private sector that plays a major role in their economies compared to Brazil and Argentina where the state plays an important role. The combined GDP is as large as Brazil's in the Latin American region- about 35%. The regional stock exchanges of these countries have created a single bourse. Their is potential for more regional trade- the Economist estimates intra-regional trade in South and Central America at a low of 27%, compared with 63% in the European Union and 52% in Asia.

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"Escalation" is the word used which ignores that more American lives have been lost to fentanyl and drug trafficking in the US over the last 15 years than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World War combined. How could this have been allowed to happen is a question for all Americans.

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The protests in Chile that started with a subway fare increase and then into protest against inadequate pensions, poor health care and schools, have turned into violent protests with extensive damage. Damage to supermarkets, stores and other businesses is estimated at billions of dollars. Damage to the modern Metro is about $370 million dollars. The economy will grow at 1% this year after growth of 4% in 2018.  The government plans a $5.5 billion stimulus, and the central bank could sell $20 billion including a quarter of its reserves to support the peso currency.  The government of president Pinera has only a 13% approval rating. A December poll by COES Santiago think tank shows 65% of Chileans support continuation of protests, and found that 89% of Chileans planned to back a new constitution. The old constitution was designed in a way that led to poor support for retirement and inadequate pensions. It also led to increased inequality in this country of 18 million. This constitution was drafted during the Pinochet dictatorship  and has now lost its legitimacy along with the rest of the political leaders. A referendum will be held in April 2020 for a new constitution.  The copper mines that support Chilean copper exports are intact and the country has low debt, which should help Chile invest in a recovery with the stimulus. ...

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A waning boom and lower growth rates in Brazil, and improving economic prospects for Mexico- diverging emerging markets and policy mix in 2013.

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The China port at Chancay, Peru, gives China access to Latin America for trade and infrastructure cooperation.

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Hit hard by the pandemic the people of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico are showing less vaccine hesitancy. This is enabling this region to catch up with the US in vaccinations. The difference is that people trust vaccinations. About two thirds of people in Chile and Uruguay are vaccinated. Supplies of vaccine are coming in from US, UK, Russia and China. Brazil is now doing 1.5 million vaccinations a day, compared to 750,000 in US daily. This report says that on a per capita basis taking into account the populations US is currently vaccinating at half the rate of Mexico and a third of the rate in Peru and Colombia, Argentina. With 8% of the population Latin America had one third the deaths making vaccination urgent and essential for this region. People are taking the threat of Delta variant seriously in the region. Astonishing as it may sound after all the publicity of deaths in Brazil this report in WSJ says 88% of people in Brazil want to get vaccinated, while 67% say this in the US, poll from Ipsos. Peru, Argentina, Mexico, Chile all top the US, says WSJ. ...

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This opinion by Andres Oppenheimer in Miami Herald Jan 30, 2025, welcomes Rubio's visit to Latin America starting with central American countries in the coming weeks, but says it should have a message to help these countries cope with economic crises. This would be also a way to discourage migration by reducing both the mismanagement of the economy, and gang crime with economic assistance and help in managing the economy.  The Miami Herald says the last time the US paid attention to the southern part of the American continent was in 1912. Yet it was in 1960 during the debates with Nixon that JFK asserted the importance of Latin American relations. In 1961 JFK launched the Allianza de Progreso.  Sixty four years later the page on the, Alliance for Progress in the JFK Library site says it was a failure. LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Obama Biden lost interest in Latin America. It blames the elites in Latin America and American business that showed little interest. Yet compared to 1960 a lot of progress has been made. Brazil the largest is now a more stable and growing economy, Mexico has grown and struggles with the drug trade, Argentina is still struggling with inflation. Only in Central America and Venezuela is the situation dire. Much of it from gangs and drug trade that has destabilized small countries. Venezuela was torn up because of a lack of national consciousness to bring all parties together for the common good using tested approaches to development- instead embarking on a novel socialist experiment with disastrous results for both Venezuela and the entire American continent.  ...

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Indian trade with Latin America 2025 of $40 billion sees a catchup effort to China's $480 billion trade. Efforts by Brazil's Petrobras and Argentina's YPF to increase exports of oil and LNG to India and increase imports of pharmaceuticals, automobiles and textiles.

Sabrina Olivera from the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI) says-

"The fact that India is the only democracy in Asia gives it an advantage in Latin America, where most countries in the region are democracies, trust in India is stronger than in China."

Brazil's president Lula and Indian PM Modi worked closely for G20 Summits in New Delhi and Rio de Janeiro. This cooperation and a need for Latin America to diversify from concentration of trade with China, increasing potential with India, can lead to a doubling or tripling of trade with India in a few years.

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Marco Rubio has shown an exceptional grasp of Latin America from his days representing Florida in the Senate, about a decade in the Senate when he has closely followed events and acquired a deep knowledge of Latin America. His answers at Congressional hearing were exceptionally good, and showed an ability and earnest desire to get good results for the Venezuelan people, sharing aninterest in the good for Latin America being a person of latin American origin who speaks fluent Spanish as a native language. Points made by Venezuela in answering questions from senators in the US Senate hearings- All of Latin America welcomed the US action to remove Maduro from Venezuela.  It affects Colombia and neighboring countries. Colombian rebel groups control parts of Venezuelan territory and operate from there.  Multiple administrations had deals with Maduro. Maduro kept none of the deals including the one with Biden for free and fair elections.  To be realistic in situations such as Spain, Paraguay, there were transitions before safe and fair return to normalcy and democratic government returned after decades of dictatorship. RUbio showed an exceptional grasp of the Latin Ameican situation and reminded senator Murphy that he had been in the Senate for decade and worked with the senators now on the other side to remove Maduro amd nothing had worked. Venezuela is a rich country , the most affluent in Latin America. It does not need money from the US. Before the Chavez dictatorship it was a country with democratic forms of government, and a country friendly to the US.  The action taken was a quarantine not a blockade. By controlling oil going out of Venezuela the lifeline for the country the US has control over its finances and the economy, budgets, the government finances. The immediate task was getting the oil out of the country as there was no place to put it and US had it sold at market prices not sent to China at a 20% discount for which Venezuela got nothing except paying off debt to China. The current authorites are cooperating with the US on the budget, they have to submit budget requests and the US approves it item by item and an audit agency is being set up including Ex-Im. Bank an other options to make sure the money is being spent on salaries and for the Venezuelan people. The money goes to an account for Venezuela at the US Treasury Department. In 4 weeks a lot has been accomplished. What happens in 6 months - for that actions are more important than words, it should be a marked improvement over today. Including setting up the US diplomatic presence in Caracas which means talking to the government on the ground, talking to civil society, talking to the Opposition.  ...

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DJT MAGA factions in general support action in Venezuela and in Western Hemisphere for Monroe Doctrine, this includes J.D. Vance, Steve Bannon and Hispanic supporters from Cuba and Latin America in Florida. They support action to bring drug traffickers to justice in the Western Hemisphere. Essentially supporting the Monroe Doctrine that no colonial European or other foreign powers should interfere in the running of Latin America in the western democratic tradition set by Britain and the United States, and now popular throughout Asia and Latin America and Africa. The government in Venezuela say Canada and Britain is illegitimate and lost the 2024 election by a huge margin 30% or lower to 67% for the opposition under Machado and Gonzalez. And the drug trafficking by Maduro and his associates against the US is an offence that can be tried in US courts, is something Republicans support, and has general support in America. Worse drug trafficking to the European Union constitutes something the Europeans should be worried about because of its growing scale and damage to Europe. ...

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About Brazil's Bolsa Familia program to help the very poor by having requirements that they send their children to school and get them vaccinated. President Lula who comes from a poor background himself introduced this program to reduce poverty. This is done in a way that requires families to send their children to school and improve the chances of reducing both hunger and malnutrition as well as help bring improvements through education and health care, so that poverty is not passed on from generation to generation. It is unique in the developing world and making a real difference in Brazil. Brazilian advisors are helping India with its program, which merely provides food subsidies but does not have the requirements of Bolsa Familia, which help the next generation build better lives.

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Lula and Milei clash at Mercosur. Lula of Brazil talks about a humanitarian crisis in US policy to pressure Venezuela's military installed government but fails to say that a third of Venezuela's population, about 10 million people have left the country as refugees to neighboring countries including Colombia and the US. Inflation at over 100% and mismanagement of the economy have destroyed a once relatively affluent oil producing country in Latin America. Hyperinflation in 2018, and 270% inflation in 2025, and lack of open free elections, lack of food and medicine. A story of socialist ideas that have led to military involvement in politics followed by economic disaster in the western hemisphere, in a country that had a educated middle class and a thriving oil industry. Not since the Spanish opening up Latin America to immigration from Europe by 1600 has the continent of Latin America seen such a mass migration which is not reflected in many media outlets including the NYT, Washington Post and BBC, Guardian. The blockade by the US of oil into and out of Venezuela is affecting Cuba and other countries which depend on this oil. ...