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Chavez and the changes underway in Latin America that required economies to be part of the global economy to grow and prosper. In addition Brazil, Mexico and other countries in Latin America have added social programs and benefitted from a global economy and exports to enlarge the middle class and improve conditions of the working class and poor. This has made a social program type economy financed almost entirely through oil exports less relevant and likely to fall behind in today's world. Venezuelans now want to connect back with the global economy and things to return to normal as in the neighboring countries. A lot is changing in Latin America including the demographics with fewer children, access to education and social benefits and the benefits of technology, and no country can remain isolated for long.

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Venezuelan president Chavez says his cancer has returned and he will need more surgery in Cuba. This comes shortly after winning the presidential election. He asks Venzuelans to support vice president Nicholas Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, for president if new elections are held. Venezuela's constitution requires new elections in 1 month if Chavez dies or resigns. Higher spending in the election year has widened the gap between revenues and spending from 5% to 20%, with expectations Venezuela's currency, the Bolivar, will be devalued.

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Both the Tories in Britain and the Democrats in the US were caught by surprise by the sudden surge after the pandemic of illegal migrations flows in 2023-2024 which dropped to all time lows in 2019-2021 with the covid lockdowns. Tories with factional infighting and Democrats falsely believing they were virtuous humane could not take effective decisive immediate action costing them the defeats in 2024. The size of the illegal migration problem to the UK was underestimated in 2023. Tory rhetoric alone failed to convince the British public. In the US Biden not confronting it head on also failed to reassure the American people as the US Border also meant destructive Mexico/China fentanyl flows. Even today the action proposed falls short and new US bipartisan legislation is needed to make it the law of the land, closing three decades of stealth in immigration policies. ONS now estimates that it missed 166,000 people. The real figure for the year ending June 2023 for net migration was 906,000 not 748,000 as previously estimated. In the year ending June 2024 this figure for net migration was 728,000. Labour party under Keir Starmer made setting up the new structures for tackling alarming rise in migration the top priority in 2024. That lesson was not learned in the US and the issue not confronted head on to win public confidence- the Biden support for Republican Senator Lankford's legislation on illegal migrants and the border came late in 2023 and the issue was left to fester for 2 years eroding public confidence. In the US the issue of illegal fentanyl flows at the US Border and from China makes the Border and China relations issues that required effective and immediate action overriding everything else. In the end Tories confusion and internal factions, other controversies, led to lack of vigilance and lack of effective action as net migration deceptively hit lows of 254,000, 111,000, and 254,000 in the pandemic years 2019, 2020, and 2021, only to surge tremendously to 634,000 and 906,00 in the years 2022 and 2023.  Labour's Starmer took action to make it No. 1 priority in the platform going into the 2024 election winning public confidence. A similar surge in migration happened in the US after a deceptive slowdown in the pandemic, compunded by Venezuela and central American states collapsing. ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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As the popularity of left party Podemos increases before the upcoming elections in Spain, it comes under increasing attack from the governing party and the Ciudadanos party for advisors from Podemos giving economic advice to the failing Maduro government. Venezuela's economy is in dire straits with high inflation and shortages. Podemos appears to have overtaken the Socialist party in Spain to become the second largest political party. The leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, and other Podemos leaders are cited as having done advisory work for the government in Venezuela.

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Chavez wins 61% of the vote to Rosales' 38% and wins reelection for a six year term. Social goals will continue to dominate in Venezula's oil based economy. Importance of cooperatives for poorer classes. Development of a Bolivarist class of businessmen who support social goals with freedom to operate and benefit from oil resources fueled economy. Are their similiarities in a sense to pursuing welfare and equity goals to the elected government in Iran? Both are oil based economies and large producers with exploration and production issues, how do these similiarities and policy differences with the US affect oil access and prices?

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Luis Almagro, president of the Organization of American States, from the small South American nation of Uruguay, says he has decided to speak up on Latin American issues, for respecting the sentiments of the people and democratic process. This is a welcome trend and more Latin American voices need to be heard, for Latin Americans to make their own assessment of the needs of the people, the problems and how to tackle them. More dialogue is needed between the government and the opposition parties to come up with better approaches and throw light on problems. The effort of Mr. Chavez however well intentioned, following neglect of social spending and needs of neglected groups under previous administrations, has gone to the other extreme leading to isolation from the rest of the industrialized world's economies- something no country can afford to do today because of the pace of technological change, much less smaller oil or commodity dependent economies. Large petroleum subsidies need to be addressed in Venezuela, as Mr. Maduro now says, and opening of a dialogue with the opposition parties is one result of Mr. Almagro's efforts. At some point a transition is needed with support of all political parties to bring Venezuela back into the global economy. Inflation of 141%, and contraction of the economy by 10% hurts all Venezuelans. Not even faint traces of the Monroe doctrine that asserted U.S. dominance in South America exists today, and it is upto Latin Americans to tackle problems of corruption, misguided policies, lack of emphasis on innovation and education. The Washington Post's deputy editorial page editor Jackson Diehl, does a service to Latin America by calling attention to such voices for dialogue and problem solving....

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As the old rules are being rewritten or changed there is considerable ambiguity about the new nuclear rules for India and Pakistan, says The Times. This happens as Mr. Trump is distracted by the international problems such as North Korea and Venezuela and the Mueller probe into Trump and the election of 2016, and as UK prime minister May is distracted by Brexit. 

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Though it would appear that Poilievre is a new face in Canadian politics suddenly leading Justin Trudeau by 29% in some polls for prime minister, he is a young highly experienced Alberta politician since age 25. And is married to Anaida Galindo who immigrated at age 8 in 1995 from Caracas, Venezuela to Montreal. Pierre Poilievre is the adopted son of schoolteachers from Alberta. He was active in politics at the University of Calgary, Alberta, obtaining a BA in international relations and being part of  Reform party that considered the progressive Conservative Party unprincipled. He was elected to the Canadian parliament from Carleton-Nepean in 2004 for Conservative party and in subsequent elections won this seat by over 50% of the vote, becoming the youngest member of the Canadian parliament  at age 25. He was appointed Parliamentary Secretary to a ministry, to the prime minister, and Minister of state for Democratic Reform of the Canadian Senate, during the years  Stephen Harper of the Progressive Conservative Party was prime minister 2005-2015. Shadow Minister of Finance 2017-2022. Polievre has not hesitated to make his opinion felt and in 2022 he supported the truckers Freedom Convoy. Following that he was elected leader of the Opposition with Justin Trudeau as Liberal party prime minister.  He is married to Anaida Galindo in 2017 who worked for Canada's Senate in Ottawa. She had immigrated at age 8 years in 1995 with her parents from Caracas, Venezuela, where her father was a bank manager. ...

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GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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IBM's sales increased in the 4th quarter 2007 by 10% to $28.9 billion and profits by 24%. What is behind this surprisng result when the US economy is seeing recession conditions and tech spending is affected? IBM's globalization strategy is paying off, it is no longer dependent on the US economy. Even to a much larger degree than companies like HP and Intel which get more than half their sales abroad, IBM has recently pursued an aggressive internationalization strategy. Even more than most companies seeing globalization affect the way they operate and expanding aggressively overseas- including companies like GE which see great scope in infrastructure spending in Asia- IBM has pursued internationalization with a vengeance. It has focussed on India, and there its growth has been breathtaking, taking talent away from Indian software companies that only recently were eating IBM's lunch. See the recent link on this. Today IBM has 73,000 employees in India. As the Indian ruppee has strengthened and other currencies aborad strengthen vs the US dollar IBM benefits from currency gains. Note that half of the revenue gain came from currency gains. This exaggerates even more the gains in getting sales and talent overseas. Whats next in IBM's plans? IBM will invest $1.6 billion in the next stage of emerging market expansion in Ukraine, Vietnam, Ecuador, Venezuela, Poland and the Czech Republic. The selection of countries is significant. Ukraine, Poland, And Czech Republic are attractive places for foreign investment and so is Vietnam. Analysts see this level of globalization of sales leading to a different response to recession type conditions in the home market. Instead of across the board cutbacks tech companies will be selective in their cutbacks. In many ways IBM leads the way and a pattern is being set for the whole of US business.The auto industry that emerges in the next few years will tend to look more and more like these tech companies with half or more sales generated abroad, and similiarly for other industries. ...