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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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This Editorial Board editorial in the WSJ should be titled Ukraine Corruption and Ukrainian people's interests in good governance. The reason is that beyond ensuring that the $187 billion sent by the US is used without corruption and this editorial cites evidence that this is the case through many oversight authorites US and EU has set up- there is the larger interest of the people of Ukraine battered and fatigued by 4 years of war. Corruption becomes an accepted practice in many democracies. Nations such as India that were mired in corrupt practices in state governments are seeing major changes in the last decade with public funds dedicated to infrastructure going to build the new infrastructure India needs to modernize its economy. It is proving that this is possible in Asia, as is shown in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China and now India. There is every reason to believe Ukraine can achieve this good governance with sufficient efforts and this is the goal set by the European Union, by Germany, Britain and France, for Ukraine. ...

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DJT wants to see good relations with Russia and Russia to join the G-7 to make it G-8 nations as it was before Obama-Merkel. He sees Zelensky as an obstacle to peace early in the second term, that has changed now that Russia and Putin continue the war. By July 8 after calls to Putin and Zelensky, he now sees Russia as an obstacle to a negotiated settlement and the need for defensive shipments to Ukraine.

As this happens in the US Congress Lindsey Graham, senior Senator from South Carolina leads an effort supported by 80 senators to place sanctions on countries that support Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

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The increasing price of wheat and the failure to modernize Pakistan's agriculture is the subject of this report in The Indian Express. The floods and the Ukraine war, lack of development in agriculture, have created a food crisis in Pakistan.

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S. Jaishankar, Indian Foreign Minister speaks at the University of Delhi on his chapter in the new book Modi@20 Dreams meet Delivery. He also discusses the war in Ukraine, the Indian view on people and shortages created by the war of energy and food, and India's approach to Pakistan and China.

 

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The US envoy to Belarus responds to overtures from Belarus's leader Lukashenko for improved relations, release of hundreds of political prisoners including the husband of a opposition leader who is thought to have won the last Belarus open elections in 2020. Today it is not realized that politicians with lack of vision or foresight - Bush, Obama, Merkel, failed to grasp that in 2020 two events happened that were linked- the Belarus electons bringing another pro-EU government on Russia's border which was squashed before it could take office and the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong also squashed in 2020 by China PRC. Crimea was made part of Russia in 2014 when Ukrainian protesters in Kviv and Lviv near Poland ousted the government of pro Russia leader Yanukovych in the Maidan revolution. Russia under Putin responded 2014-2020 with a simmering effort to take parts of eastern Ukraine that were close to and sympathetic to Russia. This was an effort to counter NATO or pro-EU countries coming to Russia's borders in the way JFK opposed pro-Russian regime in Cuba. Obama and Merkel never understood or grasped this or were too involved in the eurozone, migration crises (Merkel) or war in Afghanistan (Obama). The result was that in 2020 Russia helped squash the election results in Belarus with another pro-EU government impending. Within 2 years Russia under Putin with tacit Chinese support invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. Belarus shares a border with Russia and it is closely allied with Russia in the Eurasian Economic Zone that includes former Soviet Bloc countries such as Kazakhstan. Gradually following the recovery of the Russian economy by 2010 the emphasis shifted to create something similar to the Soviet Union, a bloc of countries in central Asia and in Eastern Europe that are part of a Russian sphere of influence. For much of the period of the Obama/ Merkel administrations in US and Germany this was ignored as most of the politicians never gave Russia the importance it sought, not accepting that the economic power was not measured only in GDP- also in science and technology, nuclear technologies, space, in energy resources, and Russia's position in Northern/Central Europe and Central Asia since 1700.  It is this situation that the DJT administration faced with US challenges of the Mexican and Venezuelan drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere has responded with the Monroe Doctrine to reassert American influence in Latin America by respecting Russia's effort to have some measure of influence on its borders, that the US seeks on it's borders. Without Russian or Chinese intervention in Latin America and with the the Monroe Doctrine in place America can protect the interests of the American people and the people of Latin America for free and good government. What Bush, Obama, Merkel lost sight of is that by each power having some strong measure of influence in their regions, and the tendencies for benevolent influence put in place, there is significantly more room for respecting the hopes and aspirations of people in their regions through democratic or other people oriented forms of government than by the situation in which economically the US was dominant after the fall of the Berlin Wall but other influences would lead to US decline- open but not free trade with China, and the recovery of the Russian economy, drug and people trafficking by gangs in Latin America where the Monroe Doctrine for US leadership had prevailed till the 1960's. ...

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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Drier weather is affecting wheat production in Europe, India, Brazil and other countries. This is happening as the war in Ukraine and blockade of Black sea ports such as Odessa is affecting supplies from Ukraine. A more than 5% fall in French wheat production is expected. France is the fifth largest producer of wheat after China, India, Russia, and the US. It is the 4th biggest wheat exporter. EU forecasts for wheat are for about 279 million metric tons in 2022-2023 growing season, down 4% because of dry weather. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization FAO says in its twice a year Global Food Report that global grain production including corn, wheat and other grains is expected at 2.78 billion metric tons in 2022 down almost 16 million metric tons from 2021. It is the first decline in 4 years and much of this is from the problems in Ukraine. India has banned wheat exports for food security reasons after the drier weather.  And Russian production of grains faces problems because paying for Russian grains is more complicated. ...

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The Ukraine war has serious side effects with food prices going up as much as 50% in parts of the world that include Asian and African nations and nations in the Middle East. Countries with debt or facing the aftermath of wars and conflicts fare much worse.  Coming after the problems created by the pandemic in the economy and health of many countries these nations are ill prepared for what is happening. 

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Paul Krugman points out in the NYT that September 2022 high inflation numbers for core inflation excluding energy and food of 6.6% on annualized basis, is still not a good way to measure actual inflation. This is because housing costs as measured by the core inflation index used by the Labor Department are represented by housing rental costs. The rental costs have a time lag in this index and after a sharp spike are now cooling off. Add to this slowing economies and recessions in European economies and the situation suggests that the economy and inflation may be moderating more than expected. Additional factors are that the effects of sharp prior 2 increases in interest rates by the Fed of 0.75% and a third of 0.75% expected soon, are still not fully realized in the economy. This view was also expressed by experts in the WSJ. It was widely perceived that the high inflation that we are seeing is a result of temporary factors such as the war in Ukraine, food and oil supply constraints, supply chain bottlenecks, new adjustments to manufacturing at home after covid. As these factors ease and after the Fed's action to raise interest rates, slowing economies in Europe adjusting to climate change actions,  the moderating effects on the economy of the costs in switching to renewable energy also a factor, this high inflation has prospects of moderating. The successful switch to renewables particularly solar, and better agricultural practices, could set along term trajectory of moderate inflation in costs of energy and food supplies.  ...

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The task of getting 20 million tons of foodgrains in Ukrainian silos out of Ukraine is being taken up by the European Union. Ms. Leyen of the EU has emphasized the importance of this mission for poor countries. About 50 countries depend on Ukraine and Russia for over 30% of imports of foodgrains says the WSJ. One way supported in this WSJ Editorial Board opinion is to use naval ships to escort ships carrying grain out of Black Sea ports. This requires Turkey's support and has to be done as a humanitarian move with ships from many countries. Rail would be an option yet Ukraine and the rest of Europe use different railway infrastructure. Steps need to be taken to do this quickly to overcome the rail issues and also use motor transport. The port of Odessa has been mined by Ukraine to prevent a Russian naval assault showing that there are obstacles along the way to be met by land or by sea. Starting now would be the best way to approach this. Both the Eu and the US should work together on this. The baby food crisis in the US was tackled by special flights from Germany. This shows that many options can be combined and problems tackled to get food grains out. What seems insurmountable can be tackled with action taken early, learning along the way. The Berlin Airlift did this in 1947 with another Soviet blockade. This would also lift spirits throughout the world. ...

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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Food inflation is affecting a wide range of countries not just poor countries. Even in the US where on average only 7% of the income of households goes to food, for poor and lower income households this can go up to over 30%. In Turkey with a high inflation rate of 80% in June over prior year, the problems of food inflation are severe. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries get most of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Across Asia the situation varies with less food inflation in countries that are self sufficient in food production such as China, India and Vietnam, to countries such as Sri Lanka where inflation is severe and takes up most of the budget for ordinary families. Lebanon is an extreme example with the collapse of its economy and 332% inflation with food inflation severe. Ethiopians spend about 45% of income on food. Somalia faces drought conditions and severe food shortages. This part of Africa is the most fragile and most prone to breakdown. Being self sufficient in food was an important goal for countries that faced famine in the past such as China and India- this has produced good results. Even in Europe small countries that make their own food with agriculture getting importance such as France and Switzerland the benefits are immense. Switzerland food inflation is as low as 1.5% lowest in the world. Where as in Africa this importance of agriculture has been neglected the consequences are seen today. In Latin America Argentina and Brazil are exporters of soyabeans and other food. This helps insulate them from the worst effects of the food crisis.     ...

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French and German support for Ukraine alongside the US is critical for the ongoing effort to restore security on the Black Sea ports for Ukraine and on either side of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine front. This is also critical for world food supplies particularly for Egypt and North African countries. A UN sponsored agreement with Turkish help is what makes it possible to ship Ukrainian grain to these countries from Black Sea port of Odessa. Even more critical after the drought has impacted grain harvests worldwide.

At one point Odessa was the target of Russian forces. Ukraine seeks to regain the Black Sea region in 2022 as its outlet to the world and to support its economic independence as a food exporting nation.

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What was established in Alaska meeting in Anchorage was the necessary rapport between two world powers. During the Bush, Obama, Biden administrations Russia was treated as a secondary economic power on Wall Street, with the focus shifted to China, which damaged relations with Russia which has always seen itself as a Northern European economic power. Some of the roots of the conflict go back to this period. In a nuclear world the size and historical relation in Northern Europe of Russia cannot be ignored purely on economic grounds about the size of it's economy in the way China could not be ignored in the 60's and 70's when it's economy was not what it is today. History and culture are not in Wall Street or Silicon Valley's understanding or grasp of international relations which go beyond economic and business considerations. On DJT and the first term, the survival of the US president- “When I came out of the plane and I said, ‘Good afternoon, dear neighbor. Good to see you in good health and to see you alive. I think that’s very neighborly and I think that’s some kind words that say to each other.” On Ukraine- “We have always considered and continue to consider the Ukrainian people our brothers and sisters. We share the same roots, and everything that is happening is a tragedy and a source of pain for us. Our country is interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that for the settlement to be long-term, all the causes of the crisis must be eliminated." On DJT's assertion that if he was president there would have been no Ukraine war- Putin says "I can confirm that." “Today, we hear President Trump say that if he had been president, there would have been no war. I think that would have been the case. I can confirm that. Because, overall, President Trump and I had established a very good working relationship based on trust.”     ...

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US farm incomes will increase in 2023 with higher demand and higher food prices, the rebound of China after Covid. The Ukraine war created shortages leading to higher prices. After several years of lower farm income before the Covid period farm incomes remain strong and farmers are better able to pay the higher price of inputs including seed and fertilizer.

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The European Union is drafting a ban on oil imports from Russia, says this report in the NYT. The European Union now pays Russia about $1 billion every day for oil imports from Russia. Under chancellor Merkel Germany actually increased its dependence on Russian natural gas from 36% during Russian annexation of the Crimea to 55% today. In this way creating some of the conditions that emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine, creating over 4 million refugees and immense destruction. Oil revenues of this magnitude of about $1 billion a day from the European Union help finance and prolong the invasion with enormous cost of human life. The longer the war lasts it affects a grain producing region in Ukraine that would lead to world food scarcity and famine.

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The head of the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, says Russia is trying to provoke a world food crisis by attacks on Ukraine ports and infrastructure, and preventing the export of 20 million tons of foodgrains. She said the EU was working to get these foodgrains out of the country. Mr. Scholz, the German chancellor on a visit to Africa, also pointed out that the Russian attacks were having serious effects with food shortages in many African countries.

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The Quad meeting of the US, Australia, Japan and India took place in Hiroshima, as shown here. The leaders expressed their deep concern over the economic effects of the Ukraine war, including "food, fuel and energy security, critical supply chains. The meeting was to take place in Sydney, Australia, but was cancelled due to debt talks taking place between Biden and Republicans in the US Congress. The next Quad meeting is in India in 2024. Biden will meet pm Modi in the US June 22. PM Modi also meets Macron on Bastille Day in Paris on 14 July as a special guest of France.

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Narendra Modi of India visits Poland and Ukraine after visiting Moscow, the only leader to do so and who can talk to both sides, and who believes resolution of the Ukraine can only come outside of the battlefield. After a once in a century pandemic, and with the poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America needing trillions of dollars to rebuild their economies, the idea of war in Ukraine adding additional stress to billions of people all over the world, stressing food supplies, supply chains and cost of living, is unacceptable for Modi. He has made this clear to Putin in Moscow during his visit and is likely to do the same in Kviv, to create the conditions for bringing peace to this region and relieve world tensions, help rebuild after the pandemic.

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President Biden has praise for William Burns for good intelligence delivered with honesty and integrity on China, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and emerging technologies. For three decades Burns has served in the US Foreign Service and performed work that is similar to that of another veteran diplomat Mr. Jaishankar of India. America turned to Burns to end the war in Afghanistan under president Biden, and now faces the Ukraine conflict with "clear straightforward analysis" given to the president, in the words Biden used for Bill Burns.

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India's foreign minister S. Jaishankar says a lot has been done at the G-20 meetings in India. He says 95% of the countries agree on the communique put out by the G-20. The idea that peace in Europe can be achieved at G-20 meetings in India is not realistic he says as the G-20 was not designed for this purpose of tackling troublespots like Ukraine. What the G-20 has done is bring countries in Europe and North America together with India to understand the problems stemming from the conflict in Ukraine on food security and from the debt crises in some parts of Asia. 

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Germany's SPD Deputy Chancellor says in Kiev on August 25, 2025 after the abortive effort by DJT in Alaska for peace talks that improved Russia -US relations as two leading world nuclear powers but did not have the basics in place for Ukraine- Russia direct talks, with Putin asking for territory in the east. "In the three and a half years that this war has been going on, we have always shown that we are not ducking away, but stand by the side of the Ukrainians. And that will also apply to security guarantees."  The big change is that the SPD under Klingbeil in Germany is now working with CDU's Merz to build up Germany's defense forces to act as a deterrent for Europe. There is a change in the mood in Germany and in Europe, from Sweden and UK , France, Italy, for concerted action in Europe that was not seen before. By taking on responsibilities for Europe with 2-5% defense expenditures this has removed the differences between the US and Europe. It means a prolongation of the war but also means this may lead to a stronger Europe, better Russia- US relations, and a Russian and Ukraine more willing to come to a peace agreement based on terms where no side appears to be the loser. Klingbeil added- It is important to have a "really strong Ukrainian army that is also capable of defense. And the second thing is that armaments production is also being ramped up here in Ukraine as well, thereby putting Ukraine in a position to defend itself and deter attacks." If European history since 1400 is any guide when the powers on either side were eventually counterbalanced the power that took a an aggressive position early had to settle for a peace settlement with both sides not appearing the loser. ...

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LNG prices have declined in 2024 to a fraction of what they were from $70 per mmBTU in 2022 with the Ukraine war to about $10 in Jan 2024. India's state owned Petronet signed a 7.5 million ton LNG deal for 20 years with Qatar at the reduced prices. For the world it is a good thing as India moves to natural gas from coal when about 60% of the increased pollution in 2013-2021 is coming from India by some estimates. This translates into climate change. The goal is to go from 6% for natural gas in energy mix in 2013 to 15% by 2030. Few people realize what this means outside India- that every additional dollar that was added to the nation's energy bill was a dollar not going to essential building of modern rail and transport infrastructure, into new colleges, into new health infrastructure hospitals, into logistics for manufacturing hubs, into digital and modernizing the economy. This during the pandemic has meant free rations of food for hundreds of millions in the rural areas which have been continued into 2024. It meant accessing at the lowest possible price, buying at the right time, and buying oil and gas from a wide range of suppliers. WSJ's Megha Mandavia looks at this effort.  ...

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...