LyrArc Article Gist
US DJT Tariffs impact 1 year later- global trade has held up well with US unemployment at 4.4% and economic growth at 2.1%. China imports down from 20% in 2016 to 10% ten years later in 2026. For DJT that was a promise kept leading to a sharp decoupling of the US economy from the Chinese economy that was leading to huge trade deficits of 1 trillion dollars. Too much of the world's supply chain was tied up with manufacturing in China. It got so bad under Reagan, the two Bushes, Clinton/Obama that the US and EU were facing deindustrialization with huge risks to the future of the US and Europe as industrial powers. 150 years of industrialization and scientific advancement, the great achievements of Europe and the United States since 1860's was going up in smoke over reckless policies of Republican and Democratic elites who gave little thought and barely understood the long run effects of their policies and textbook theories of the economy. Most economists from ivy league universities got it completely wrong. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian Government Mr. Anantha Nageswaran, makes these comments on the economy of India before the presentation of the new Budget for April 2023 to March 2024. The Economic Survey of India states that "India is prepared to grow at its potential once the one-off shocks of the Covid pandemic and of the supply chain recede." He sees the sweeping effects of the reforms across multiple dimensions taken from 2016 to 2022 having a lag effect and now making their impact. This means that potential growth can go up to 7 or 8% with macroeconomic improvement, fiscal improvement, infrastructure efforts, women's employment, and getting rid of LIC (License, Inspect and Compliance) across local, state and central levels. He says the central bank estimate of 6.8% retail inflation for 2022-2023 is outside its target range but yet not high enough to deter private consumption, and no low enough to weaken the inducement to invest. He says slower growth in the world including the US will bring two advantages for India- low oil prices and a better current account deficit situation.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's growth will slow to about 3% in 2022 as the decisions made at the Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 10 were to emphasize economic stability as the overriding goal. The goal of discouraging speculation in housing with the slogan housing is for living will remain in place in 2022. The goal of controlling surging debt that poses a serious risk to the economic future of China will also remain in place. The external environment remains uncertain and getting complicated with a change in the US and German governments in 2021 and shifts in policies.

A party congress will take place in 2022 in addition to the Beijing Winter Olympics. 

LyrArc Article Gist
IMF chief economist, Gita Gopinath, says multispeed recoveries are in place in regions and across income groups, linked to the differences in vaccine rollout, and extent of economic policy support. 

All regions in the world are expected to grow faster than estimated in January 2021 by IMF. 

US - forecast raised to 6.4% from 5.1%, this follows contraction of 3.5% in 2020. Rapid vaccination drive and large economic support under president Biden accelerating growth. About $5 trillion in economic support in the US by April 2021.

Europe- forecasts raised for growth in UK and Italy.

Latin America- growth forecast raised to 4.6% from 4.1%.

Africa- growth forecast raised to 3.4% from 3.2%.

Emerging and developing economies including India as a whole- growth forecast raised to 6.7% from 6.3%.

 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 was 7.4%. This is a record and the closest to this was the economic growth in 1950 which was 3.9% a little over half of that. This is the equivalent of 33% on an annualized basis.

The economy is about 3.5% smaller than when the pandemic started. This record is better than the one in 2008 financial crisis when over a period of one and half years the economy declined by about 4%. By 2021 the U.S. economy will have recovered to where it was back to its original shape if recovery proceeds at this rate.

LyrArc Article Gist
Fed's Jay Powell says about his interest rate increases of five percentage points at consecutive meetings since March 2022- "We've seen the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market. That is really a good thing." Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the 9 year period of most growth cycles in the US economy since 1980 and says a soft landing could be followed by growth till about 2030. Business investment led to 2.4% growth in the second quarter 2023. More investment is in the pipeline under the Biden economic plan. As inflation is going down to about 3% from 9% at its peak in 2022 the US is set for economic growth that would help it grow in a way that would enable America to meet the challenges of today in climate change, worker incomes and the cost of living, and in need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure in the way it was done in the years after 1945 under Truman and Eisenhower.

LyrArc Article Gist
S&P forecast is for India's economy to be the third largest by 2030 at 6.3% annual growth. Positive consumer sentiment, domestic demand and increasing state investment are increasing growth to 7.8% and 7.6% in the second and third quarter 2023. A stable government that is focused on economic growth and capital investment projects increases the economic prospects of the Indian economy into 2024. Most of the northern and northwestern, and middle Indian states have investment coming from a coordinated push by state and federal government run economic sectors. Underlying this effort is building of infrastructure, shipping, transport and logistics, that will support growth of key industries to 2030, when the Indian economy is expected to be the third largest in the world. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Exports growth in aerospace and agriculture, housing, and rebuilding inventories is helping France achieve 0.7% economic growth in 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia is expected to earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports in 2022, up more than a third from 2021. This more than anything else is supporting the currency. It also means Europe will continue to buy Russian oil and gas through 2022. The rest of the reason experts say for the resilience of the rouble is  that Russia has put in place capital controls and raised interest rates to 20%. This they say is an artificial boost and the rouble is likely to weaken in the long term. 

The steps take to keep the value of the rouble and also the damage to the trading and economic relationship Russia had with the world after invasion will reduce growth in Russia. Growth of 2.8% in 2022 will turn into 10-15% contraction in the economy in 2022. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian economy showed strong growth in the second quarter of 2021 and economic growth for the whole year 2021 is expected to exceed 10%.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Dell donation of $6.25 billion for Trump $1000 child investment accounts. The Trump accounts were passed by Congress for giving tax deferred investment accounts to children born from Jan.1 2025 to Dec 31 2028, as a way to give 25 million lower income children a good start in education and opportunities in life. The Dell money $250 per account will go to 25 million children, go to 10 years old born before Jan. 1 2025 as away to address the gap for children not in the age group Congress targeted. Dell's money goes to US zip codes with average incomes below $150,000. This is a recognition by the Republican DJT administration that many lower income children are being left out in the economic growth US has experienced in the last decade, approaching the problem from a different angle than the Democrats.

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden will visit France for D-day and Italy for G-7 meetings in June, followed by a television debate in Atlanta. The concern about families struggling to make a living with high housing costs and grocery bills continues at the White House and president Biden says he is concerned telling one Congressman- "I care. I know people are hurting."  The Biden policies have worked for unemployment and for economic growth as the US is the only advanced economy in the world to return to pre-pandemic growth. Economic growth is now forecast at 1.7% for 2024 says WSJ, higher than the 1% forecast in January. Younger people in particular and newer voters who did not vote in 2020 are not informed about the economy and only see the difficulty making ends meet in living costs. These are the young people president Biden is making an effort to reach.

LyrArc Article Gist
Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Households and businesses have built up trillions of dollars in extra savings and the economic recovery looks strong says this report in the WSJ. Experts expect the economy to pass pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021. From this point the economy can recover the pre-pandemic trajectory of growth for 2022. There is a bit of caution about another wave of the coronavirus with new more contagious variants considering that about half the population still remains unvaccinated. The US has enough vaccine supplies, it is the anti-vax sentiment that could be the problem. Even with this bit of caution the economy appears resilient.

LyrArc Article Gist
Financial markets are pricing in 2 quarter point percentage interest rate cuts from Bank of England. But the weaker economic outlook could lead to 4 such cuts creating more room for Labour's Budget as it struggles to fight austerity spending, meet aspirations for better public services and infrastructure and still be seen as responsible in spending goals.  In September 2023 analysts referred to the mini-Truss British budget and the speed with which borrowing costs increased for England as the "moron premium." As debt servicing costs increase in 2025 and less optimism about growth, there is concern that the 9.9 billion reserve that Rachel Reeves had planned after balancing day to day spending with tax receipts to 2029-30 would disappear. The Labour Budget had planned on about 105 billion pounds as debt servicing cost for 2.6 trillion pounds in UK debt as indicated by Office of Budget Responsibility. The 30 year yield is up to 5.3% in Jan 2025 and this could erase the 9.9 billion reserve with higher interest costs. The situation is different from Truss but will need to be watched carefully. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US looks at outpacing Europe with faster economic growth because of a rapidly progressing vaccination drive. The slow pace of Europe's vaccination drive will affect tourism in Europe in the summer of 2021.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Mint suggests that there is strong economic growth in India today yet more needs to be done to broaden the economic recovery to reach all segments of the population. Pent-up demand is leading to economic spending for higher income segments of the population, yet sales of two wheelers for the moderate and lower income segments as shown in graphs here have fallen badly.

The next step is for a broad based recovery as India expands its vaccination drive. There is no room for relaxation of the vaccination drive as prime minister Modi pointed out to lagging district heads in a national virtual meeting on the same day that he returned from COP26 Glasgow. So much has happened in 2021 with the surge in coronavirus in India in the middle of the year, and the economic rebound is in its early stages requiring vigilant and careful attention from industry and government in the months ahead through 2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
German economy contracts in second quarter 2024 by 0.1%. Growth is forecast at 0.3% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025, according to country statistics office Destatis. The contrast could not be greater in Biden's management of the economy as US economic growth was much higher at about 2.8% in 2024. It shows the positive effects of Biden's effort to revive American manufacturing, and to support chips and science and American industry, and the investment of a trillion dollars from the Inflation Reduction Act in American infrastructure. Without these investments American recovery strong at this time would have hobbled along with much worse effects on jobs and inflation, and looming recession, under a Trump administration. Unusual factors such as the concentration of the supply chain in China have influenced US inflation, which Biden is correcting, and also bringing jobs at home. The economic management is excellent it  is the effects of the pandemic and broken supply chains, high mortgage rates and 20% price increases in apartment rentals that are making cost of living a problem for average Americans. Biden has taken cost of living action including canceling student debt and calling for limiting rent increases for apartment rentals to 5%. Harris has a program to support renters when housing takes up more than 30% of their income. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
One estimate fof US economic growth is for 4.6% growth in the third quarter for the US. The US economy is doing much better than expected, much better than either Germany or China in 2023, with the investment in infrastructure and renewable energy of the Biden administration.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian budget for 2024 calls for an investment in infrastructure of $134 billion, an 11% increase from prior year. The economic growth in the last quarter was 8.4%. For fiscal 2024 the growth estimate of government of India is 7.6%, the IMF forecast is 6.7%.

LyrArc Article Gist
A year after taking office Argentine president Milei cuts spending by 30% bringing inflation down from 25% to 2.4% in November 2024. All sorts of programs are cut that had proliferated over the years. The resut is that the economy shrinks by 3.5% in 2024, only to grow rapidly by 5% in 2025 restoring a more stable pattern of growth and moderate inflation. Throughout it's history Argentina has faced high inflation and economic crises.A similar pattern in Brazil was broken in 1998 after two decades of inflation. It reached 56% in January 1990 dropping to about 2% in 1998.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Center for Economics and Business Research in London estimates GDP growth for the UK of 0.4% in 2012. According to Britain's Office of National Statistics the UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the third quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
As shown in this Guardian report about clean tap drinking water in China in 2017 pollution of rivers and lakes was so severe that anywhere between half to 80 of water in rivers was not drinkable. This was just before the pandemic. Efforts since 2015 to tackle the problem are still in progress. This is happening as India works on getting 100% of 190 million homes covered for drinking tap water in India by 2024. Out of this 116 million homes or 60% have clean drinking tap water in 2023 under prime minister Modi's  Jal Jeevan Mission (Water for Life) led by IAS's Mr Parmeswaran. India and China started out in 1990 with about the same GDP. China attracted foreign investment to accelerate its economic growth to where its GDP is much higher today than India. Yet in 2023 India starting from behind has some advantages. In the case of clean drinking water, limiting contamination of the rivers with effective regulation of industries which was missing in China, and providing clean drinking water with newer technological means is one of these advantages. Indian investment comes with the technology of the 2020's compared to China's investment using technology from the 2000 period. This will create additional gains in GDP and quality of GDP in its challenge of matching and exceeding growth in China. ...