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Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....

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With the strong jobs growth report in September the US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is expected to increase interest rates by 0.75% at its meeting on Nov. 1-2. That will be the fourth interest rate increase in 4 consecutive meetings of the Fed. It is designed to tackle inflation yet it also reverses the period of low interest rates for savers that extended from 2000 to 2020. This period covered two crises one created by irresponsible behaviour of banks in the financial crisis of 2000 and the second a natural health disaster from the pandemic when interest rates were brought down to zero as a policy response. During that period savers who suffered decline in savings with little interest income and lower income groups were hit by both the financial crises, employment gaps that hurt income and savings, and the shift of jobs overseas as jobs were shifted to China and American manufacturing declined. Economic policy was determined in that period by economists who failed to grasp the dangers to American manufacturing, to American communities with loss of jobs from offshoring, rising inequality that fragmented society.   This has changed under the Fed run by Mr. Powell first appointed by Mr. Trump and now renominated by Mr. Trump, who is not an economist and brings a very different mindset to central banking, going with common sense about what works for average Americans. a sense of humility, and down to earth about American workers and American manufacturing and its place in America. ...

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The European Central Bank headed by Christine Lagarde is ending its 8 year experiment with negative interest rates. It will increase rates from negative to zero as a first step. The US Fed and central banks around the world are increasing rates with inflation and supply chain disruptions leading to higher prices.

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Mortgage and other loans taken out at lower interest rates, before the US central bank the Fed started raising rates  in March 2022, is a big part of US household debt. This fact is helping to soften the impact of the Fed's increase of rates by 5% over 16 months. The increase in rates helps savers and retirees earn more on savings kept in CD's. The cut in inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3% in July 2022 helps increase the purchasing power of money. It also helps keep the US economy stronger than other world economies, with the Biden economic plan of increased business investment underpinning strong economic growth of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Wars are not a distraction or cost burden for the economy, with Biden shutting down 2 wars in the Middle East and South Asia. Lessons were learned and Biden has been resolute about this, also giving a singular focus to his plan for rebuilding and renewing America on multiple fronts, infrastructure, fighting climate change, inflation, business investment, and fair taxation so that the fruits of labor are shared equally by all of America's people. Doing this required a clear vision, resolute purpose, and a path to action for each step. Biden has done that in ways that only a few presidents have done in the past. In doing this he has shown that America stands for hope and a better future, a land as he never fails to repeat, a land of possibilities. ...

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John Taylor on the dual mandate for inflation and unemployment and discretionary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve that ended up creating booms and busts in the U.S. economy. He advocates replacing the dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "stable prices," which was inserted into the Federal Reserve Act in the 1970's, with a single mandate for "long-run price stability." Taylor points out that this will still give the Fed flexibility, as it is focussed on long run price stability. The Fed does not have to overreact to short run increases in inflation. And he points out that this actually will work well for unemployment as the booms caused by an overextended period of low interest rates such as that in 2003-2005, have led to booms followed by busts with high unemployment.

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The US Fed under Jerome Powell is going to raise interest rates one more time in 2023 following rate increases in 2022- by a quarter percentage point this week. This is not only a fight against inflation but a way to reverse a situation that has affected the wealth and standard of living of ordinary Americans by reducing interest on savings to a paltry less than one percent. Only stock market investors benefitted under the previous regime widening income and wealth disparities in America. Just as today's story in the WSJ showing Bath and Body Works returning to basics such as producing soap in America, something that would not even have been given a second of thought in the 1900's, the Fed is doing its job under Jay Powell of going back to the basics. Where interest on savings provided retirees a comfortable stress free retirement and the inducement to save help build a savings pool in America to invest in what really improves the standard of living for all Americans across this country, from rural to urban, from all parts of the land. ...

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The dollar remains the dominant force in capital markets. It is strengthening after US central bank raised interest rates 8 times in 2021-2022 to about 5.25%. China is cutting interest rates as its economy with debt at about 290% of GDP is slowing, the EU increasing rates as it faces inflation fueled by price increases and some price gouging. In the US inflation is cut in half by Fed policy to 4% in May 2023, Biden's policies to help with the cost of living and restrain price gouging, and by supply chains working better than in 2021. The US looks the strongest of the lot.

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The number of workers out of work in the US for 3 to 6 months increases sharply from Spring 2022, as the labor market cools. Fed's Jay Powell's effort to cool the labor market with higher interest rates appears to be working.

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The Japanese stock market index Topix dropped 6.1 percent on August 2, 2024. What caused this is the Japanese yen going from 161 to the US dollar to 150. The strengthening of the yen comes as the markets sensed two things- one the US Fed considering a rate cut based on employment and inflation reports, and the Bank of Japan raising rates. The rate increase of the Bank of Japan leads to a shrinking of the wide interest rate gap between Japan and the US. That gap had shifted money in Japan in the direction of US holdings. On Aug 5 the Nikkei 22 Index dropped 12.2 percent. It rebounded on August 6 by 11%. By August 7 the Nikkei 225 index was up another 1.2 percent. The situation can be summed up by saying that the Nikkei settled into a situation which recognized some strengthening of the yen to 151 to the US dollar. The fundamentals for the US and for Japan have not changed.

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House prices that went up by 532% in Australia, 602% in Canada since 1990 now face the prospect of decline by 20 or 30% after sharp increase in interest rates by central banks in the US and other countries. US prices were up 289% since 1990 by comparison. The Fed's moves could also lead to a decline in US home prices as mortgages become costlier. As many mortgages are not fixed in Australia and Canada the costs can increase sharply with rising rates.

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It is a serious problem when big banks such as JP Morgan Chase offer 1-2% in interest on deposits when the Fed has increased market rates to above 5%. The average for all banks is only 0.73%. Consider that JP Morgan Chase made $14 billion in profit in 2022. This reduces the interest earned by the vast majority of average Americans who have savings at American banks and reduces their wealth further increasing inequality in the US.

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This WSJ podcast looks at the Fedspeak, the language, the use of specific words that telegraph the US central bank's carefully thought out message to markets. Th topic is inflation. Is it persistent or transitory? Fed chairman Powell's word for it was "transitory." Then transitory" but longer than we thought, because our Fed models did not include supplychain bottlenecks.  In reality every new variant brings new lockdowns and slows the rise or reverses the increase in gas and fuel prices that are a main driver of inflation. Wage increases are a good thing after decades of lack of leverage of workers and economic distortions from this, this may be termed constructive inflation.  Supplychain bottlenecks are likely to ease and not be permanent so that the Fed could be right on that point. A less noticed aspect of the Fed's decision to raise interests without careful thought is that this will impact the ability of poor and moderate income countries to afford medicine and food as exchange rates make their currencies worth less. At the time of variants this is both a practical and a human consideration. What are called emerging markets in finspeak (financial language) are really countries that Stephanie Nolan is writing about on the frontlines of the pandemic in the NYT- South Africa, Zambia. Then there are other poor or moderate income countries- Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia. Today the Fed needs to think about them also. How much vaccine, medicines, or food imports can they afford with weakening currencies as the Fed raises interest rates? At the same time some accomodations for inflation are necessary, but carefully thought, with a lot of thought given to the current state of the world with new variants and weakened economies and no stimulus payments in large parts of the world to offset weakness. ...

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The Labor Department reports 295,000 seasonally adjusted jobs created in Feb. 2015, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.5%. This opens the path for the U.S. Fed to increase interest rates as early as June 2015.

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Financial firms in the U.S. S&P 500 are expected to increase 4th quarter 2013 profits over prior year by 24%, according to FactSet. Increase in long term interest rates increases the spread between short term rates that banks borrow at and the long term rates at which banks lend, easing the pressures on bank's net interest margin that were present as the Fed lowered rates. Prospects of recovery and increased lending improves the prospects for banks in 2014.

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NYT's Jeanna Smialek says there are lower inflation expectations with the Fed in the fight. This will help the economy in 2024, and help president Biden in managing the economy. Slower rent increases, and declining demand for housing, cars, with higher interest rates sharply increasing mortgage payments and car leases, is helping to slow inflation. Lower inflation expectations help because buyers are less willing to pay higher prices and falling demand acts to slow price increases by retailers and manufacturers. The Fed's fight against inflation without letting up, and China's slowing economy have reduced demand to where inflation expectations are set to be much lower by 2024.

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Americans in retirement are able to rebuild their savings with interest on money market funds of over 5%. This is the result of 5% percentage points of consecutive rate increases by Jay Powell's Fed. In addition about $121 billion went to savers as they faced $151 billion in higher interest rate costs on mortgages and loans. The result with a strong labor market and lower inflation of about 3% is an economy that is resilient and can provide the 5 or 7 plus  years of growth needed for America to meet the challenges it faces with its allies in the EU, Asia and Latin America, Africa- to tackle climate change, to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, to invest in education and healthcare, to improve worker incomes, and build its manufacturing at home into a strong thriving sector for good paying worker incomes.

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The cushion of pandemic savings of US households is thinning About 35% of it is spent already and by the end of the year 65% of it will be spent, says this report in WSJ. American households accumulated $2.7 trillion by the end of 2021 in extra savings during lockdowns that restricted spending and with stimulus government aid. At the exact time when transfer payments by the US government to households stopped there was inflation lowering the purchasing power and this has resulted in some households increasing credit card balances, dipping into savings and cutting spending. This is what economists are seeing at the Fed as resistance to price increases. Estimates show the percentage of disposable income saved in the US doubling to 16% in 2020 from 8% in 2019 with lockdowns, then dropping to 3% in 2022 with extra spending, and up to 4.5% by the end of 2023. This will have the effect of putting up resistance to inflation and lowering the Fed's interest rate increases to cut inflation. ...

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During 2022 the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank issued 6 warning citations to Silicon Valley Bank, saying that its bank practices did not allow for enough cash in the event of crisis. By July 2022 in a full supervisory review it was rated deficient for governance and controls. At a meeting with senior leaders of the bank the possible exposure to interest rate losses related to Fed increasing rates was also discussed says this report in NYT. The Fed regulators stated that the bank was using wrong models showing that SVB bank would do better as interest rates increased. Questions are being asked about why things that were in plain sight were overlooked by the regulators- 97% of deposits were uninsured by the federal government. In the event of a crisis depositors might try to get their deposits out causing a run on the bank which is what actually happened with $42 billion attempted withdrawals in one day. Michael Barr is the vice chair for Fed supervision. A investigation report is expected by May 1. March 29 the House Financial Services Committee will hold ahearing in Congress. Peter Conti-Brown, an expert on financial regulation at the University of Pennsylvania calls it failure of banking supervision, and says it will become clear from the investigation whether the supervisors failed in their work. One of the problems is that the CEO of SVB bank, Gregory Becker, was on the Board of the San Francisco Fed. NYT says the optics of this is bad. Bernie Sanders, Senator from Vermont, calls it absurd that he was appointed to the Fed board of the institution that was regulating SVB bank. Another problem is that Randall Quarles, vice chair of Fed supervision 2017-2021 carried out a 2018 regulatory roll back law of president Trump in an expansive way says NYT. This law exempted banks with less than $250 billion in assets from strict banking supervision that larger banks were expected to go through. Fed chairman Powell is criticized for not  flagging these steps as potentially dangerous for the banking system in the way this was done by vice chair Lael Brainard. Brainard is now head of Biden's National Economic Council. She never favored the Trump law and had grasped early the risks of such deregulation. Sanders will bring a new law to prevent bank CEO's from sitting on Fed boards, and Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for an independent review that does not include Powell.     ...

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Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

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International issues took on larger significance for the U.S. Federal Reserve in September 2015 as it looked at a small increase in interest rates. Schwartz points to the memories of the 1997 emerging market crisis and how fragile economies like Mexico were adversely impacted by rising rates in the U.S.. Mexico needed a large bank bailout and contagion spread to other countries. Kenneth Rogoff says the risks are real with declining commodity prices and falling currencies of emerging markets such as Brazil, Indonesia and Russia. Ripple effects would carry over to India and other countries. The sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy in the second half of 2015 was too recent for the Fed to take any sort of risk in September 2015.

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The US central bank's, the Fed's head Jerome Powell, says about the US economy in the beginning of October 2024- "Overall, the economy is in solid shape; we intend to use our tools to keep it there.”  Overall the Fed's governors on its board have a relatively favorable economic outlook- “this is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” says Powell. The Fed has the same idea of common sense for the economy, common sense for what works to reduce cost of living and increase investments in the US manufacturing and industry, that the Biden administration and Harris have adopted. The thrust of the Fed's policy says Powell is focused on bringing interest rates down to a level that neither spurs nor slows economic activity. Each action is based on observation of data and taken with the goal of the wellbeing of the People of the US, and Nation as a whole.   ...

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Former U.S. Federal Reserve chairpersons Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen, are together at the International House, on the campus of Columbia University, in April 2016, in a forum hosted by journalist Fareed Zakaria. The discussion covers topics related to the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath, with quantitative easing, Fed communication as policy tool, and the gradual increase in interest rates.

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Fed's Jay Powell says about his interest rate increases of five percentage points at consecutive meetings since March 2022- "We've seen the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market. That is really a good thing." Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the 9 year period of most growth cycles in the US economy since 1980 and says a soft landing could be followed by growth till about 2030. Business investment led to 2.4% growth in the second quarter 2023. More investment is in the pipeline under the Biden economic plan. As inflation is going down to about 3% from 9% at its peak in 2022 the US is set for economic growth that would help it grow in a way that would enable America to meet the challenges of today in climate change, worker incomes and the cost of living, and in need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure in the way it was done in the years after 1945 under Truman and Eisenhower.

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U.S. job growth slowed in February to just 20,000 jobs in nonfarm sector following strong gains in December and January. The 3 month average is 186,000 jobs created. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The figures are watched closely as Europe and China are showing slow growth. The European Central Bank said it will not increase interest rates till 2020 and announced fresh stimulus loans. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates in the next few months. Economic output growth was 0.5% in the first quarter after 3% growth in 2018. Other reports show labor scarcity with wage growth outpacing inflation. 

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From north east Indiana and Indiana University SVB CEO Becker works his way up to a bank in Detroit with offices in California, and joins SVB in his twenties. He opened SVB's office in Boulder in 1996 and became president in 2008. Two things made SVB different. It seemed like the 2008 crisis had never happened. The management at the company Becker, Beck, and another executive Descheneaux hired from Bancwest, acted more like tech entrepreneurs and much less like bankers. They seemed to have mastered the way of optimistic talk to tech entrepreneurs, the language the culture, and did not share the same grasp of the economic environment of others who had weathered the 2008 crisis. For most of 2021 the company did not have a risk officer, according to the WSJ. And did not see the aspects of duration risk in having assets invested in long term Treasury's when interest rates were increased by the Fed rapidly to fight inflation decreasing the value of bonds. Startups and SVB management in their optimism both ignored the risk of not having the backing of FDIC insurance as insurance is limited to $250,000 in deposits, and most of the SVB's deposits were much larger. The US government wary of criticism of a bailout insists the FDIC backing provided to prevent systemic risk will not cost the taxpayers as it will come from a special assessment on banks. Nothing better explains the collapse than a look at the graphs of SVB's deposits in this WSJ report, in 2019 deposits and financial assets increase at about 50%, at about 100% doubling in 2020. Stock performance mirrored this.  By 2020 the supply chain disruptions were real and inflation was taking off, the Fed under Jay Powell was taking up the fight against inflation with sharp rise in interest rates. SVB did not grasp the seriousness of the situation. Venture capital gleaned the risks as they mounted and a bank run with withdrawals of as much of $42 billion led to the collapse.   ...