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The U.S. trade agreement with Mexico is for 16 years, to provide business with a stable rules environment to operate in. It includes a clause for review after 6 years. The content made in the U.S. is increased to 70% from 62.5%. This has to be made by workers earning at least $16  an hour. Aluminium and steel going into the cars has to come from the U.S. helping push U.S. steel plant capacity utilization to 80%. Labor collective bargaining is strengthened in Mexico through new provisions, a provision supported by new Mexican socialist president Obrador. Free trade in agricultural products is maintained. $4.7 billion was added in help to U.S. farmers as aid for the effects of China's tariff retaliation. New rules are set for textiles, chemicals, and steel intensive products that set requirements to qualify for tariff free import into the U.S. This is intended to help bring more jobs and investment in these industries in the U.S.     ...

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Canadian steel and lumber industries get government aid, as talks to end US tariffs are halted over an ad on Reagan misrepresenting him on tariffs by Ontario state.  Canada's steel and lumber industries will get the aid in the form of railway costs cut in half with rail subsidies, and tariffs on US steel imports into Canada to reduce domestic steel costs for other industries. Stellantis shifts car production for a new Jeep from suburban Toronto to Illinois, GM cut a shift at a pickup plant and closed a electric van plant in Ontario. Not all imports to the US from Canada face tariffs. Other products enter the US from Canada under a free trade agreement USMCA that went into effect July 1 2020. Canada is also shifting policy under Carney's Liberals on climate change, as it seeks to reorient its economy to export oil to China and India- a new pipeline is now approved for oil and gas to be shipped across the country from Alberta. Since it's independence with Dominion status in 1867 Canada's economy has struggled with the idea of building a economy separate from the US so that trade between the northeastern Canada and Northeastern US which is next to each other is foregone for trade with distant provinces in the western states such as Alberta and British Columbia. In Brazil Lula's Worker's Party is also slowing efforts on climate change for the economy as it approves oil and gas projects in the Amazon, at the same time as it holds COP30 at Belem port in the Amazon. Even Biden had shown flexibility on the economy to support cost of living measures that are in conflict with climate change action. In DJT's second term climate change action has taken a back seat to cost of living concerns when a large majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. ...

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The rising production of natural gas in the U.S. from shale deposits has hurt the use of thermal coal. Appalachian coal costs $65 per ton to produce and prices have dropped to $52 a ton on the spot market, making it unprofitable to produce. Coal mining companies were relying on the demand for metallurgical coal from China's steel industry, which has boomed since 2004, to continue profitable mining operations. From $40 a ton in 2004 the price of metallurgical coal climbed to $330 in 2011. In 2009 U.S. met coal exports went up to six times the prior year's production and this continued in 2010, leading to rapid expansion. Now with a slowdown in China and the Chinese steel industry operating at a loss with huge overcapacity, the prices of met coal are down to $170 a ton. Patriot Coal of St. Louis filed for bankruptcy protection and many companies are shutting down mines and laying off workers.

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U.S. president Trump meets with president Moon of South Korea in June 2017 at the White House. South Korea's new leader president Moon tells congressional leaders that he will not reverse the deployment of the THADD missile defense system aimed at blocking a threat from North Korean missiles. President Trump says the renegotiation of the trade treaty with South Korea is taking place, with discussions on South Korean steel exports "dumped" in the U.S. and barriers in the auto exports from the U.S. The U.S. trade deficit with South Korea jumped from $13 billion in 2011 to $27 billion in 2016, leading to charges of unfair trade. 

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Severstal to buy the Sparrows steel plant in Maryland formerly of Bethlehem Steel for $810 million. Expect more Russian investment in the USA.

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After months of uncertainty and waiting for concessions, offering temporary exemptions, the Trump administration announced tariffs will go into effect on steel and aluminium imported from the European Union, Canada and Mexico. A tariff of 10% on aluminium and 25% on steel goes into effect on May 31st, 2018. The tariffs affect about half of the imports of steel and aluminium into the U.S. and are intended to keep promises to protect American industry made by president Trump during his election campaign.

Mexico and the European Union are imposing retaliatory tariffs. The European Union will impose tariffs on $3 billion of American goods in retaliation. 

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Japan and South Korea which rely on the U.S. for defense offered only a mild response to president Trump's announcement of  25% tariff on steel imports. Australia also defended free trade but offered no response to the U.S. duties on Australian steel and aluminium exports to the U.S. of $388 million.  There was no criticism of Mr. Trump. 

Japan's prime minister Abe talked to Trudeau of Canada as a 11 nation group pushes ahead with the TPP or Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, and are set to sign the agreement in Chile this week, on  March 8, 2018.

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At 79 years, Wilbur Ross will be one of the oldest people serving in any administration, as he serves as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration. Wilbur Ross is best known for the turnaround efforts in the steel industry. In 2002 he acquired LTV Corp, a third largest steel producer in the U.S. facing tough times and legacy costs, for $125 million in cash and $200 million in environmental liabilities. In 2005 he sold his International Steel Group to Arcelor Mittal for $4.5 billion, and is still an independent director on the Arcelor board. Ross's earlier experience was as a bankruptcy specialist at Rothschild Inc. in the 1970's working on restructurings at Texaco, TWA and Continental Airlines. Analyst Charles Bradford is cited in this report by WSJ's John Miller, who competed with Ross in restructuring proposals for failing assets, and describes Ross as working harder and being tougher to make the deals. Some of these restructurings involved cutting pensions and large layoffs. The entire U.S. steel industry faced problems from foreign competition and legacy costs at the time. This included representing bondholders for Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City. At the time Ross told creditors considering seizing the asset for a possible missed payment that it would be better to keep Trump in charge for Trump properties as they would be worth more with Trump inside. This led to Ross later providing critical backing for the Trump campaign and raising money from the business community. Mitt Romney had similiar work at Bain Capital in turnaround of failing companies, later turning to politics as Governor of Massachusetts, and 2012 Republican nominee for president. Both Romney and Ross have come under criticism for their role in cost cuts at companies involving layoffs and cutting worker benefits. ...

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Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute points to trade barriers reducing competition and free trade that should raise an outcry when free trade and competition advocates focus alone on the Trump steel tariffs. He points to estimates that show $90 billion in additional costs to Americans from the barriers that prevent Americans from paying world market prices for surgeries and medical treatment, prices similar to what is paid in advanced countries like Germany, Britain and France. A bigger barrier in pharmaceuticals prices being sheltered from market competition worldwide costs a huge $370 billion in additional costs to Americans. These two costs in healthcare would help Americans by a magnitude compared to tax cuts that do not work for average Americans with the business tax cut going more into share buybacks than into increasing wages or capital investment in 2018.  Bernstein points to Neil Irwin's column in the NYT that flags statements such as Senator Mike Lee, Republican, that the steel tariffs are a huge job killing tax hike, as being misleading. Bernstein says two actions were never taken that would have used benefits of free trade to help affected communities that lost jobs in industries such as steel and textiles, other industries affected by foreign competition.  He lists these steps as sectoral employment training, apprenticeships ,and job creation efforts in the worst affected areas. Basically no one really knows what is good trade policy, the textbook concepts and theories are out of date when countries can subsidize particular industries such as steel and dump products into the American market. At a press conference on CSPAN with the Swedish prime minister Mr. Trump stated that China was exporting more than what is officially shown as there are transshipments from other countries, some of them with no steel mills.  As Mr. Trump stated at that press conference he was elected partly because of the worst affected communities- in places such as Michigan and other states in the midwestern U.S.- that suffered from unfair trade. Bernstein admonishes the economists and politicians, media, for the headlines that are misleading in showing that bad trade policy is being pursued and trade wars are being started. This deserves attention because the Trump administration and advisors such as Lighthizer who served in the Reagan administration seek fair trade, and the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross successfully pushed for NAFTA trade deal renegotiation not the outright rejection of NAFTA that was mentioned in the election campaign. Ironically no one is helped by this trade rhetoric and misleading headlines. In fact the strengthening of the U.S. currency as the huge trade surplus of China goes into U.S. assets, and with the election of Mr. Trump, gives foreign competitors a continued advantage. And in fact Japan, South Korea, China, had a mild response to the tariffs as reported, because these countries are aware of global overcapacity created especially by China which produces 50% of the world's steel, and as China shifts to higher technologically value added products closing many older steel mills. ...

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The opening of new factories in America, the revival of manufacturing, gives a boost to companies producing steel and excavators. Nicor and Caterpillar benefit from the investments in manufacturing in the US under Biden's Make in America plan. 

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Natural gas prices have declined to $3.34 per million BTU's in Jan 2013. This is about a fourth of the prices in 2006 and 2008, when prices were above $12 per millon BTU's. The result is a rebirth of industry in the midwest and other regions in the U.S. Here the WSJ's John Miller covers a Nucor $750 million investment in Louisiana for a new steel plant. Oddly Nucor did just the opposite in 2004, taking apart a steel plant and shipping it on ocean barges to Trinidad, where natural gas is abundant.

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Full transcript of Kamala Harris Interview on MSNBC with Stephanie Ruhle on September 25, 2024, the same day when she outlined her Economic Plan for the next 4 years at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh is where the US steel industry was built in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century. Harris outlined a plan that would help rebuild American industry including the steel industry and other key industries of the future, in Chips and Science, in a partnership of the government with the private sector to compete with China and the European Union. 

She looked back to the ambition and vision of another era and to bring it back today-the Transcontinental Railroad under Lincoln, the Interstate Highway System under Eisenhower, the Space Endeavor under John F. Kennedy.

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As drops in price of steel could lead to imports into the US with paying lower tariff Trump increases tariffs on steel to 50% on May 30, 2025. Nippon Steel says it will increase its investments in US steel mills at US Steel including older mills, $7.7 billion in modernization of plants, and $2.2 billion at Mon Valley plant. Ownership of US Steel based in Pittsburgh with 14,000 workers will stay in American hands. DJT intervened to make these investments possible. Investments will keep furnaces open 10 years and give every worker a $5000 bonus. It is this type of action that has helped DJT win in Pennsylvania and win worker support.

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Pennsylvania is one of the critical states in the 2020 U.S. election. It is also one of the states hit hard by the coronavirus. Pennsylvania has also seen the impact of layoffs in the vital steel industry during two decades of neglect by previous administrations till the tariffs on steel from China by president Trump began a reversal of this trend. Unemployment is high in Pennsylvania as a result of the pandemic. 51 of 67 counties in the state recorded unemployment rate increases for 2020 that are in the top 20% for the U.S. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two critical states for the 2020 election. Pennsylvania has done much worse than other states including Michigan when it comes to the impact of the pandemic on unemployment rates in all counties. Voters could decide to blame the Democratic governor for lockdown restrictions  that worsened unemployment or president Trump for his approach to the coronavirus. There is also concern among conservative voters about the kind of change they seek between steady improvement in unemployment and a shift to radical changes in the economy. ...

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Each party, is trying to put pressure on the other with dueling bills in Congress, as the federal government shutdown continues in the U.S.  Mr. Trump's proposal includes the $5.7 billion to construct a steel barrier along the border with Mexico.    

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Jobs in the fracking industry replaced the old steel industry that went into decline in Pennsylvania. The county in the area around Pittsburgh depends on jobs in fracking in the oil and gas industry, and in Pittsburgh itself by contrast jobs have shifted to high tech. The fracking industry has emerged as an alternative for jobs after its rapid growth and the U.S. emergence as an exporter of oil and gas for many who do not have the backgrounds suited for high tech jobs.

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As Neil Irwin points out in the NYT the effects of the steel tariffs announced by president Trump are negligible on the U.S. economy- the impact of $30 billion in steel imports and $17 billion imports of aluminium on a $20 trillion economy. As Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross pointed out in a television interview it is the impact of a fraction of a penny on a food can, and tenths of one percent in the price of a new car.  What markets when settling down look at is the facts from how situations were handled from tariffs on solar panels to action on NAFTA. Twitter comments of Trump have not reflected actual policy as it was carried out as Neil Irwin points out. On tariffs for solar panels this has fitted in with action from preceding administrations says Irwin and also fits in with Trump administration policy to send a message when lower prices subsidized by foreign governments hurt U.S. producers. On NAFTA Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and other key economic advisers around Trump have acted along with the calls from prime minister Trudeau and contacts with Economics minister Videgaray of Mexico, to a policy of making some changes to NAFTA, very different from the calls for rejecting NAFTA made earlier by president Trump.   ...

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 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, views China's response in trade negotiations as one of conducting extended negotiations that lead to little change. This has continued says Lighthizer for over a decade putting the U.S. at a serious disadvantage in trade. At a White House meeting in August 2017 Lighthizer convinced president Trump that China was in his words "tap, tap, tapping us along."  This confirmed president Trump's own instincts about the U.S. trading relationship with China. Lighthizer is a veteran of trade negotiations, having experience in the Reagan administration as the Deputy Trade Representative in 1983 in negotiations with Japan, when Japan was in a similar situation that China is today. At the time trade negotiations with Japan were getting nowhere. Lighthizer is said to have turned one Japanese response in negotiations into a paper plane and sent it flying right back. Lighthizer does not seek the limelight but is serious about his role having published op-eds in the NYT and WSJ since 2000 about how U.S. trading relationships were putting the U.S. and U.S. workers at an unfair advantage. Many of these op-eds are in the Lyrarc archive and a Search with the term "Lighthizer" would bring up these articles. This report in NYT shows how the role of Lighthizer was not anticipated by China when it sent Liu He to Washington in November 2017 to negotiate with the U.S. President Trump made certain Liu He and other Chinese leaders would have to talk to Lighthizer first. In a session with president Jinping laid out U.S. views that the past negotiations had accomplished little and new negotiations had to be undertaken very differently from negotiations in the past. Earlier in July trade negotiations conducted by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross were "shut down" by president Trump because China continued to repackage earleir offers which meant little to the U.S. As a lawyer at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher LLP Lighhizer represented steel industry clients hurt by subsidized Chinese steel industry imports. Mr. Trump and Lighhizer have bonded well because their instincts have been the same- that the U.S. had not been well represented in earlier negotiations by lawyers who saw themselves as speaking for American exporters.  Lighthizer is also a seasoned trade negotiator and has waited for the right time and situation to tackle the unbalanced trading relationship with China. For 30 years Lighhizer represented American manufacturers as he practiced trade law at the Skadden law firm. His strategy has been to get the administration to unite behind a clear trade strategy. He says "I try to be friendly in trade negotiations. I am not the theatrical type. The art of persuasion is about knowing where the leverage is." At this time the leverage lies in the huge trade surplus of about $300 billion China has with the U.S. The U.S. goal is to bring this down by $100 billion through this new negotiating strategy as earlier negotiations have failed. ...

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It is important to understand the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because of the many misleading headlines. The new tariffs placed by the Trump administration on a list of 1300 imported products from China are for about $50 billion and targeted at high tech products in flat screen televisions, medical devices, aircraft parts and batteries, other high tech products that China hopes to get an edge over the U.S. under its "Made in China 2025" plan. China still enjoys a huge surplus with the U.S. This plan is intended to better manage the next phase of the competition with China as China seeks to get an edge in high tech products. The steel tariffs were targeted at China's buildup of surplus steel capacity in the last 2 decades, with little to do with the next phase of the competition globally between the U.S., the E.U. and China. This is a carefully planned move showing American resolve to be competitive in the high tech industries of the future. It will be followed by a comment period during which the administration will get feedback on product choices. A public hearing is set for May 15 in Washington, and companies can file objections till May 22. ...