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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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The U.S. Deputy Attorney General, Rod Rosenstein, defends the Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in elections in a Congressional hearing. He says most of the employees at the agency with very few exceptions are honest and trustworthy. He is working with Mueller to ensure that the investigation is not affected by the political affiliations of any of its prosecutors. Rosenstein told Congress that Mueller had acted appropriately to keep politics out of the investigation. Prosecutors found to have political leanings have been removed from the investigation.

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President Macron of France says with the president of Sweden Ulf Kristersson at the Swedish Defense Academy- "The EU has to make bold decisions to defend Ukraine, to preempt any US decision to withhold of reduce its support." Europe should have its own security architecture independent of the US and Russia. it says Europe's effort was inadequate when Russia had completely revamped its war effort, that Europe should not shirk its responsibilities for its own defense. That no matter what happens with Ukraine aid in US Congress, or no matter what happens in the US presidential election in November, Europe will have done what it needs to do for its own defense. In doing this he said Europe needs to stand by Ukraine. 

Sweden is about to join NATO. A recent report in WSJ is shown on this page about the advanced defense manufacturing capabilities of Sweden for fighter jets, artillery and other systems.

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China is slowing infrastructure projects after loaning $30 billion to Venezuela. As Venezuela's economy declined under Maduro Venezuela is paying this off with oil exports in what is called a creditor trap. Both Russia and China are intent on trade with the US, Russia to open up business and trade and China to preserve it's trading and business relationship for its exports at a difficult time for it's economy. This tacitly preserves the idea of US direction in a beneficial way for the western hemisphere that was part of the message in 1823 by president Monroe to Congress. In the Mexican War, through Manifest Destiny during the administration of James Polk in 1843 this was still the accepted idea when Ulysses Grant a future president and civil war general on the side of Lincoln fought in that war. This brought slavery free, Spanish feudalism free, democratic processes and modernized economies to California, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, much of the West and the Pacific shoreline. Russia hopes to get the US to accept it's aspirations to be a modern Northern power in Europe. The US DJT Republican administration has shown it's respect for Russia in its zone of influence, with it's main objection to Russia in Ukraine being the massive invasion of a neighboring country. When compared to Mexico it was the US replacing the Spanish who had invaded the Aztec tribes in Mexico setting up feudal regimes, not the US invading a neighboring country. The European Union and Germany now bear the burden of defending Western Europe as a European power. The situation is similar in Asia where China has it's area of influence and India, Japan, Australia as Asian powers sharing zones of influence in Asia with China, so that the US can maintain good relations with China including fair trade that brings back it's manufacturing. The US would continue to support Taiwan as an independent country. This balance can ensure peace in the Americas, Europe and Asia as nations modernize and choose better governance under governments that relate to their history and geography, as opposed to Communist and anti-communist or democratic or anti-democratic, when they meet the aspirations of their people.   ...

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COP30 becomes a disappointment in Brazil with no mention of fossil fuels. With even Brazil divided with Lula and Brazil's Congress supporting agribusiness and the oil industry. There is a clear perception that cost of living and development concerns have to be given recognition and balanced with climate change goals. This is true also for the US, EU, India and China. These countries are still moving ahead with climate change goals but realize that they have to strike a balance. On the other side are Saudi Arabia and Russia, other oil producing countries that want to delay climate change for as long as possible. These fossil fuel producers opposed mention of fossil fuels and making a transition out of fossil fuels a major priority at COP30.  

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DW.com looks at what it means for first Finland, and then Sweden joining NATO. For Finland the invasion of Ukraine where people speak Russian and have close cultural ties comes as a reminder of past history. Under the treaties that ended the war with Napoleon in 1815 after the Congress of Vienna, Finland was given to Russia and Norway wrested from Denmark was given to Sweden. Jens Stoltenberg now head of NATO is a former prime minister of Norway. Russia invaded Finland in 1940, and Germany invaded Norway during that war. As a result there are historical reasons why 62% of Finns support joining NATO.  What this means for NATO- This means NATO's border with Russia will double from 1300 to 2600 kilometres. Finland would be different alone compared to being part of the NATO alliance. For NATO this means 280,000 Finns in its army if mobilized under Finland's compulsory military service would be added to defending the border. Finland already is training with US equipment and training since 2015 and is in a joint defense plan with NATO. Sweden's situation is quite different. It has benefitted from neutrality and never been occupied by any power in the 500 years of European wars for balance of power in the region. In the last 200 years Sweden has acted as a neutral state and stayed out of 2 world wars and other conflicts. For Sweden to join NATO it has to change this historical neutrality and has to be convinced that the invasion of Ukraine and the immense destruction in Ukraine with over 4 million refugees mostly women and children is an event that has changed everything. If Sweden were to join NATO not much could be expected for ground forces as Sweden has a small army. Sweden also has no land border with Russia. Sweden is on the Baltic Sea which is also a border for Russia. Sweden does bring 100 modern fighter aircraft and 8 modern submarines that would secure the Baltic Sea.  If one or both countries were to join NATO this would happen by June and both countries would join NATO immediately after 30 NATO member countries approve this.  ...

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, says Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization in the summer of 2012 will be good for the global economy and for the U.S. It will increase U.S. exports to Russia from the low level of 1% of U.S. global exports. It will also set the right tone for improving U.S.-Russia relations and improving cooperation on global issues. She calls for Congress to change the Jackson-Vanik amendment and setting up normal trading relations between the U.S. and Russia. It is a smart investment in trade with Russia,and also a way to help Russia diversify its economy, setup an open political system and put its world trading relationships on a more transparent basis with clear tariff rates.

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China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

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On April 21, 2022, US president Biden talks to Americans in a live television address and says US will send an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine. And an additional $500 million in economic assistance that takes the total economic assistance to $1 billion. He asks Congress to approve additional requests so that an uninterrupted flow of aid to Ukraine can be maintained to deter Russian aggression. He also opens up a path for direct entry into the US for some of the 5 million Ukrainian refugees. He calls attention to the 5 million refugees and to the millions of displaced children. He says about two thirds of the children in Ukraine are displaced by the war which he found to be shocking.

Biden said "you've got to admit- be amazed at the courage of the country, and of the young men and the young women." 

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President Trump's lawyer Cohen provides testimony to the U.S. Congress on activities on behalf of Mr. Trump. Cohen provided more details on the Russian involvement in the presidential election and Wikileaks leaks on the Democratic Party. He also described his role as a fixer for Mr. Trump, always defending, and arranging for Mr. Trump, something that he said "monopolized my life." Mr. Cohen and Mr. Stone were close to Mr. Trump during and before the campaign. Both are under investigation by Special Counsel Mueller.

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On Facebook "Back the Badge" targeted at wives of police officers remembering killed police officers was seen 1.3 million times. Another ad "Woke Blacks" for Afro-American culture targeted at the civil rights movement was seen 750,000 times.These and other ads on Twitter were cited in Congressional investigations in the U.S., as ads paid for in rubles and conducted by Russian internet agencies. Facebook, Google, Instagram and Twitter managers answered questions in Congress about the ads during the U.S. presidential election of 2016.

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Milei wins 41% of the vote in Argentina midterm Congressional elections in October 2025, with one third of Congress to support his economic programs to fight runaway inflation. About one third of the people live in poverty, as Milei resorted to tough action to fight over 100% inflation. It is  now down to 30%. Argentines are determined to find a way out of this inflationary crisis that happens once every decade for the last 70 years. The US plans to provide $20 billion in loan assistance, and another $20 billion from private funds. The IMF has a $55 billion program to support the economic programs that cut the number of people in the state sector companies and government, cut economic subsidies and social assistance, in a desperate effort to rein in inflation. Only when all members of society pull together, particularly young people, can a nation get its economic act right. Argentina must find a way. A rainy day fund has to be set up as happened in Brazil and Russia, financial prudence exercised by leaders, and the young people stepping up to change the country's future, change the trajectory forever. ...

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The propaganda war taking place in Russia and China, and anti-western sentiment promoted on Chinese social media Weibo with the linking of Ukraine with the issues China faces in Taiwan. A kind of Monroe doctrine thinking that prevails about legitimate spheres of influence of Russia and China. Under the Monroe doctrine the US considered South America its sphere of influence during the administration of US president Monroe in the 19th century when such thinking about spheres of influence prevailed. A closer look shows that this was a policy against restoring Spanish or French colonization of newly independent nations in South America such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile and Mexico. It was put forth in an annual message to Congress in 1823 by president Monroe.  It had the support of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, founding fathers of America. Originally it was intended to be a joint British-American declaration by Canning and Monroe. In this sense even the superficial notion of America supporting such spheres of influence is based on protecting liberty of nations that suffered colonization such as Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, Argentina and gained independence from Spain. Around 1823 when it was stated it was the British Navy that prevented any recolonization by Spain or France. Under president Theodore Roosevelt it was used to keep European powers from invading Venezuela in 1903 to enforce the payment of debts Venezuela had with European countries. ...

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Senators Grassley, Graham, Risch, Blount, are some of the senators on the Judiciary and Intelligence Committees of the U.S. Senate who believe that Special Counsel Mueller's investigation should stay on track and complete its job, even though texts showing bias between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page led to their removal from the investigation. The senators say Mueller is a very capable guy and he has fired the officials expressing the bias against president Trump. The mood in the House is different where Republican Congressmen have called for Mueller to be removed.

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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Attorney General nominee William Barr sayshe will not interfere with the Mueller Russia investigation, calling it "vitally important" that this investigation be completed. This happens as there is increased scrutiny of President Trump's interactions with Russia. This follows a report that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had opened a counter intelligence probe into Mr. Trump in 2017, as questions were raised about the abruptness of the firing of FBI Director Comey.  Mr. Barr defended a memo he had written critical of Mr. Mueller for his theory of obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump. He said he considers that a minor aspect of Special Counsel Mueller's probe. Barr says the memo did not question the special counsel's core investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr. Barr was Attorney General under George H.W. Bush and would follow his earlier prioritizing of crime fighting and immigration policies. He needs some support from Democrats to be nominated, and to win this support he reiterated that "where judgements are to be made by me, I will make those judgements solely on the law."  ...

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With heightened scrutiny of president Trump's interactions with Russia, and lack of detailed documentation of what was said at meetings, Mr. Trump told reporters - "I never worked for Russia." House Democrats are looking at whether there was an effort to limit documentation of meetings. 

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Immigration and drug flows became an explosive issue in the US by 2016, yet between 2016-2024 Venezuelan people outflows added up to 7.1 million migrants including about 1 million to the US, as Venezuela collapsed and Russia intervened to keep the regime.   None of this could have happened with major powers US Russian cooperation. The Monroe Doctrine of president Monroe, 1824, warned European powers to not restore colonial influence in the Americas. By 2024 Syria sent 14 million of its population to Europe, and Venezuela sent 7.7 million migrants to Colombia, Brazil, and the US, as their economies and democratic institutions collapsed. Missing was working cooperation with another military power Russia. Clinton, Bush, Obama, Western financial interests, failed to grasp the importance of US Russia cooperation and mutual respect. Obama denigrated Russia as insignificant because of its GDP.   Russia intervened in failing states but gained little, straining the good relations mutual respect from earlier periods of its history and interactions with the US.  DJT tariff on all importers of Venezuelan oil affect China to which Venezuela sent 55% of its oil exports over half a million barrels a day. It also affects India and other importers. These importers say experts, will shift to Russian crude preferring it to heavy oil from Venezuela. This is a sore point for Americans affected by violent crime from Venezuelan gang members reflected in recent election results. This also affects the sense of safety in American neighborhoods and in towns across America. The Linken Riley Act was passed in the US Congress as action on this issue. People in China, India, and in Europe, and some even in Silicon Valley in the US fail to grasp the way this has affected communities across the US when after decades of deindustrialization and shipping jobs overseas by American business, these communities are affected by a sense of lack of safety in their neighborhoods. There is also a failure to grasp the harm done by migration of 7.7 million people from Venezuela, almost a fourth of the country's population, because of mismanagement of the economy and crippling inflation, and the failure of democratic institutions to function effectively. A failure to grasp the extent of the economic and human disaster in Venezuela. DJT says- "Venezuela has been very hostile to the US and the Freedoms which we espouse...Venezuela has "purposefully and deceitfully sent to the United States, undercover, tens of thousands of high level, and other, criminals".    ...

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The US Senate voted 71-26 to ratify the new START treaty with Russia limiting nuclear weapons on both sides. It is a key part of rebuilding relations with Russia. In one of the last acts of the lame duck Congress, 13 Republicans including Senator Dick Lugar, a senior Republican who has been an influential voice for arms reduction, voted in favor of the treaty.

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Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

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XI Jinping tells China's National People's Congress that "western nations- including the US- have implemented all round containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedentedly severe challenges to development." Addressing the private sector Chamber of Commerce representatives which create significant number of jobs in China he said the Communist Party "has always regarded private enterprises and private entrepreneurs as our own people, and will always support them whenever they run into difficulties." Job creation in China is a challenge with high youth unemployment estimated at about 20%. The pandemic worsened the situation for state finances and for unemployment for migrants, the construction slowdown has added to this. The burden of trillions of dollars of local government debt increased during the pandemic with the central government lacking the resources to help, creating problems in the local economies.  This WSJ report says Xi's speech seeks to present his government's performance in the light of these challenges and future challenges as growth slows in China. The trading relationship with US-EU added to employment and income problems for China's economy and people, yet it had one weakness an over concentration in manufacturing in one country that European and US business placed in one country. The building of a  new supply chain that creates manufacturing in other countries to reduce this concentration, and the limits placed on access to western technologies by China to protect US-EU in competition, places new development challenges for China, which Xi alludes to. In the past China was able to use huge stimulus to tackle its debt by creating more growth that supported this debt creation. The pandemic may finally have reversed this as trillions of dollars of debt have built up, and construction of homes and infrastructure has reached a saturation point. This is the kind of situation that Japan entered in the 1990's after three decades of torrid growth and development rates. History is being repeated as China like Japan is entering a new phase of an aging society. In this sense the challenges China is facing are very different from that of Russia. Creating jobs is a perennial problem in India and China with their large populations and rising aspirations of people after centuries of underdevelopment, something that Europe including Russia does not face in anywhere to a similar degree. in this sense there is more in common between the EU and Russia even when they are in a war, than Russia and China, and China has more in common with India. The struggle in Europe as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has pointed out in his History of Europe, is more about the balance of power which is the story of European history since the 1450's where no one country has been allowed to act with impunity in invading its neighbors and other countries formed a concerted group to prevent this. Be it France, Austria, Britain or Russia that acted seemingly with impunity. China has little to do with it or Europe's history. President Biden is right to say that the US only competes with China in the economic and business fields, and seeks to find common ground on climate change and food insecurity. The US has supported China throughout the twentieth century since the time of Woodrow Wilson in 1913, around the period when Tsinghua University was established with US help. The US helped China during the Japanese invasion and the Cold War period ended with renewed relations.  ...

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The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...