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Vietnam has an excellent record in the coronavirus epidemic with zero deaths and 324 cases. No locally originated cases are seen. The country has an astounding 792 tests per confirmed case compared to 144 for Taiwan and 57 for South Korea. Vietnam acted quickly to close its borders, quarantine foreign travelers in camps, close schools, and imposed an early lockdown.  This gives Vietnam an opportunity to restart its economy and maintain its growth. With the reallocation of supply chains away from China underway, Vietnam sets an ambitious growth rate of 5% for 2020, down only slightly from 7% for 2019.  The coronavirus also had some positive effects including the digital transformation that is taking place-  the rate of online transactions in public services increased from 12% to 24% during the 2 month lockdown. The discipline showed in Vietnam for tackling the crisis contrasts with other countries in Europe and America. This report says some small businesses and export industries in clothing and shoes are affected, yet even a 3% growth rate in 2020 makes Vietnam a winner, as the future in 2021 looks good. ...

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Taiwan adds new spending of $8.7 billion over 5 years to its military spending to fund acquisition of home developed precision missiles, naval ships, and weapons systems for existing warships. The military budget will grow by 4% to $15.1 billion in 2022. China's PLA air force flew 19 warplanes into Taiwan's air defense zone on Sunday, September 14.

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The Biden administration and Taiwan are accelerating the development of supply chain in India to tackle a chip shortage worldwide. Taiwan seeks to come up with an early agreement with India on tariff reductions for semiconductor components. The $7.5 billion plant investment would provide 5G electronics chips as well as automobile chips. India is studying various plant locations and 50% financial support after 2023 is planned with tax breaks and financial incentives.

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China's economy expanded at 0.4% growth rate in the second quarter of 2020, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. It is not just the lockdowns that are dampening consumer sentiment.  US and EUropean demand for manufactured goods from Taiwan, South Korea and China is shrinking.

Youth unemployment is high with 20% of people 16 to 24 years without work. Some experts say the youth unemployment is increasing because companies are showing less interest in hiring and training new workers, or in investing in the future.

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The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are building closer relations with Taiwan. Central European and Eastern European countries trade less with China and see close relations with the US as essential for their security. This includes Poland, Slovakia, Lithuania, Czech Republic. Taiwan is increasing investments in Eastern Europe after investments by China failed to materialize in the last decade. Taiwan foreign minister is now on a visit to Slovakia and the Czech republic. For many Eastern Europeans the dominance of China brings back memories of the dominance of Soviet Union and the Cold War.  Taiwan says it is looking to deepen ties in the industrial, scientific and green energy fields with the region. Eastern Europe's perception of China has changed in the last three years as shared values of rule of law, democracy, and human rights with the rest of the world and the US are seen as important for the region.  Western Europe with France and Germany is also gradually moving away from its close dependence on trade with China. The French Senate is leading an effort to build closer ties with India by hosting Ambition India 2021 starting on October 29. Germany under Scholz of SPD and Baerbock of the Greens is moving away from the Merkel CDU era of close dependence on China in trade. ...

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China says its students are subject to harsh questioning when coming to the US, and these students face racial discrimination in the US. 105,000 student visas for Chinese students were issued by the US embassy in Beijing and consulates in China in 2023 as the pandemic recedes and normal exchange relations resume. About 50,000 exchange program participants in the US are expected to visit China over 5 years. Nicholas Burns, 68 years, is the new US ambassador to China in April 2022. As the mood changes in the US with both presidential candidates ramping up their stand on trade with China and tariffs, US China relations face headwinds after the normalization of US-China relations following the pandemic, when Xi and Biden met in San Francisco in 2023. Chinese student facing racial discrimination in the US and the difficulties with learning English pose serious problems for Chinese students which Nicholas Burns in a diplomat sheltered world may have no idea of. This applies to students from mainland China and Taiwan alike. Burns may have too hastily dismissed this side of the perspective from Xi Jinping. ...

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Demand for political risk insurance in China increased from 25% in 2019 to 68% in 2023, according to insurance broker WTW. Out of 50 insurers only 5 are offering political insurance for China and only for $50 million when most companies needing this insurance are large companies. The Ukraine war and China-US tensions over Taiwan are making it difficult for American or European companies to do business in China.

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Biden sends Yellen and Blinken to Beijing in April 2024 to meet with premier Li Qiang and foreign minister Wang Yi to improve relations with China. Xi says China and the US can work through their differences including on Taiwan. As tensions increase in Europe with Ukraine and with another election cycle in the US, it is essential that the US, China, India and the EU work though differences on Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific, and plan ahead for a future peace settlement in Ukraine with the support of all nations, especially ones with which the US and EU, have a strong trading and economic relationship. China needs export markets as its construction industry stalls and increases investment in manufacturing. The US continuing strong investment in manufacturing in the US, continuing to trade with China on a level playing field. Both sides have economic interests, and interests of the world to advance peaceful cooperation. 

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As tensions increase with Japan Xi turns to the US and has discussion on Ukraine and Taiwan with US president DJT. Xi looks for ways to build a better understanding with the US on a unification of China with Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi calls DJT November 23, 2025. In the background the US 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is being discussed with Ukraine and the EU.

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Venezuela investment of $100 billion by US for oil and dilapidated infrastructure- how it looks 5 months after Venezuela's new government in place. The US president called for $100 billion in investments. The Washington Post looks at the current talks by Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips with the Venezuelan government. It shows how far and how quickly things have changed with the US Treasury account that has KPMG Audit and is intended for the Venezuelan people funds for reconstruction of the economy. US media speculates on many topics - how the orderly transition can be made, how the oil industry can be revived and how the investments can be made for infrastructure that has been neglected and broken down. The main point to remember says Marco Rubio who with his long association with Latin America was instrumental in setting up the strategy to get Venezuelan recovery and public participation in phases by finding leaders who can do this within the existing setup left by Chavez and Chavismo. Delcy Rodriguez was chosen. The main point is that it is only 5 months of 2026 and a lot has been achieved to set the right direction. Not mentioned in the Washington Post is that Delcy Rodriguez is in India this week on a trip that brought her in contact with many Indian leaders to meet India's petroleum needs. What can India do in exchange? As part of a long term plan Venezuela shares the experience of India through colonial rule, and can emerge as a key partner for development of its infrastructure and economic revival along with the US. This will change the dynamic into something different- the US offers not merely the Monroe Doctrine principle in the Western Hemisphere but also can now show what was never possible since 1821 and president Monroe - the opportunity to tie up with the US expanded relationships in Asia, with India and Japan that are supporting a huge transformation for 1.4 billion people in India. It offers Venezuela a tie up of its energy resources with US oil companies technologies, and the infrastructure technologies and labor of Japan and India, digital transforming tech nologies of India and Japan/Taiwan. This offers the potential for real revival in Venezuela and in Latin America that never before existed and is now being put in place.  ...

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Guardian Bikes in Indiana factory was shifted in reshoring to the US in 2022. By 2026 it hopes to change the situation from 90% Chinese parts to 60% of the parts made in the US and prices still within reach for American buyers of $199-$399 for childrens bikes. Other bike makers are hesitating, and some have moved to Taiwan from China.

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NATO Air Drills with active participation of the US and Germany including Japan near Eastern European borders with Russia, are meant to show that the US and allies can move quickly in both the European region and in the area near Taiwan if needed. It follows a drill exercise by Russia with Chinese forces close to Japan in 2022.

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Make no mistake president Biden is saying it is America's, and India's turn to reinvent the semiconductor industry with government capital support, and with the zeal and inventive capabilities of the US and India. This interview by Ben Cohen gives a glimpse of how Morris Chang now 92 years sees the founding of Taiwan Semiconductor in 1985 in retrospect in 2024. He talks about his early life in the US as an immigrant from China after 1949 and his work at Texas Instruments learning about the semiconductor industry. In the 1980's Japan was the rising industrial nation in semiconductors. By 1985 Intel which dominated memory chips faced challenges in quality and cost and cheap capital from Japanese capital markets encouraging exports. By 1988 Japan took over the market. What Morris Chang is not telling is that Chang already had the Japanese example in 1985. If Japan could do it on all three fronts quality, cheap capital with government assistance, and ten year effort Chang and Taiwan could do this and accomplished this which it has done. ...

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Intel Board members disagreements on how to run the company 2025. Lip-Bu Tan replaced Pat Gelsinger as CEO only a few months back.  Pat Gelsinger had a close relationship with Biden and also had close relations with VP JD Vance. Lip Bu-Tan has no such relations and is seen by DJT and Senator Cotton as "conflicted" in his ties to China as an early investor in Chinese chipmakers. DJT calls for Tan's immediate resignation as CEO of Intel in 2025. Lip-Bu Tan left the Board a few months before the ouster of Gelsinger. It now appears that the ouster of Gelsinger as Intel's recovery proceeded but only gradually was a poor decision of the Board.  This report also shows an acting head of Intel Yeary recently considering selling of the manufacturing business to TSMC which is a staggering revelation considering that the US is trying to build its own dominant chip making business in the US, which it had ceded to TSMC in Taiwan after inventing the computer chip. ...

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China chooses periodic blockades or air-sea coordinated exercizes around Taiwan's 12 mile waters as a strategy to respond to US Indo-Pacific strategy of keeping lanes of sea traffic and navigation on oceans open to all nations. This is seen as less risky than an outright invasion. Military exercises in August 2022 are seen as preparing for such a strategy.  The US is the destination for $541 billion and Europe $521 billion in products Made in China in 2021, which make China the manufacturing powerhouse in the world. Without the export of $1 trillion in Chinese products thousands of factories and millions of Chinese workers would remain idle. It is unbelievable that China is risking so much with its Taiwan policy with no idea of what the consequences would be years from now. It took China three decades after the gradual opening by 1990 and a willingness on the part of American and European governments and business to give up much of their own manufacturing leading to loss of jobs in communities across both America and Europe and much pain from this loss, for China to get to $1 trillion in exports. This situation may never come back as the supply chains shift and jobs return home and to countries that are becoming competitive in infrastructure and capabilities in Asia. Such competition between nations is not unknown as it was with Imperial Japan in the Pacific just 100 years back. The US maintains its position as keeping navigation on the oceans of the world open and rule of law, and it is on these foundations that China was able to get the strong manufacturing and exporting position it has now that no nation has enjoyed in history to this extent. Only the British come close in the nineteenth century. So much of China's progress in the twentieth century was a result of cooperation and support from America, from the first university Tsinghua in Beiijing, to the war against imperialist forces of Japan, to the rebuilding of China's manufacturing and technological competitiveness with American business cooperation. ...

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US foreign direct investment to China goes down 40% in 2020 to 2022 compared to the period 2015 to 2020, for India this was up by 20%, according to IMF. India was the only G-20 country that received this level of foreign direct investment. Prashant Jha of the Hindustan Times correctly points out that the IMF paper and the model on which this paper is based are flawed. The paper sees countries based on alignment and India as a so called non aligned country not part of friendshoring, even though Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has openly called for friendshoring in India alongside finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. IMF experts have not caught up to Mr. Biden's remarks about the US- India relationship that it would be "the closest on earth." Closer even than America's relationship with Britain or Europe. On oil imports Biden and Jake Sullivan believe that after the pandemic India should import oil at the lowest possible cost to meet the long time denied aspirations of 1.2 billion people, and build the infrastructure that will make it a critical part of America's new supply chain. Every time there are military drills and blockade of Taiwan by China the people of America are moving a step further away from American companies that have overconcentration of manufacturing in China and closer to calling for a new supply chain that reduces concentration in China and builds new manufacturing in India.  ...

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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board looks at the reserves being set aside by banks and oil companies against losses in Russia as the situation in Ukraine worsens in April 2022, and has questions for CEO's that have not made preparations for a similar situation arising in China. Too much is being done on Russia "on the fly." For China 83% of American company CEO's have made no plans for supply chain action for China even after the pandemic hit and after the supply chain chaos from zero covid policies. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have set aside $3.36 billion for Russia, according to Reuters. Shell says it may take charges of $5 billion to write down Russian assets. Exxon will take a similar charge. WSJ Editorial Board says the situation in China with respect to territorial claims on Taiwan are similar, and asks what preparation is being done for China risks. WSJ's Editorial Board says American CEO's should be calculating their supply chain and investment risk now in the event that there is a conflict in Asia. Some of this foreign investment has shifted it says as foreign direct investment as a share of China's GDP is down to 1.2% in 2020 from as high as 4.6% in 2005, according to the World Bank. Much remains to be done. Yet in 2021 despite the supply chain chaos from China's zero covid policies and rising geopolitical plus trade tensions, 83% of American companies operating in China were not considering or were not in the process of relocating their manufacturing or sourcing out of China, according to a recent American Chamber of Commerce in China business-climate survey. A figure that is the same as in 2019, a sign of complacency says the WSJ, one that could be costly, and with Russian write downs today a warning to executives that they should start preparing now for the danger that lies ahead. ...

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Just days after the collapse of Francis Scott Key Bridge on the outer harbor of Baltimore, a key part of Maryland's infrastructure and its industrial and shipping jobs, this report in the WSJ shows candidates will not be discussing how they will fix the many problems from infrastructure, to rebuilding manufacturing, and investing in education, healthcare. On the same day March 30, 2024 the WSJ headline was that many other large bridges of this size all over America could collapse including Chesapeake Bay, Verrazano Narrows and George Washington in NY-NJ, and Golden Gate, San Francisco-Oakland in California. On the same day an interview with Morris Chang of Taiwan Semiconductor showed 92% of advanced semiconductor manufacturing was controlled  by TSMC with much of it located in Taiwan and China, under a business model that means advanced technology manufacturing in the US that would take the place of the lower tech textile and other mills sent to China, would also be shipped out. Manufacturers in the US including Apple HP and others agreed, leaving American workers in the lurch, hitting communities all across America without manufacturing jobs and without hope. That model has been around since the 1990's. It is as if the American people, workers and families in the US were never consulted. That story is told alongside this article in Lyrarc.com ...

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In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China. US cannot have it both ways. It cannot compete with China in chips and allow temporary market forces do the job of decimating its chip industry.    Market forces are rags to riches and mostly short term ignoring long term. Nvidia now valued at $1 trillion under market forces would not exist today. WSJ showed recently that only with the help of a loan from a Japanese Sega videogame executive Iramijiri to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang was Nvidia able to survive market forces in 1998. Qualcomm a maker of phone chips has made a takeover offer of Intel in 2024. Intel shares dropped 60% this year and is valued on share basis at $90 billion- yet was recently at $290 billion closer to its true value as America's chip pioneer and leader. Qualcomm is at $185 billion. Yet share values can be rags to riches as Nvidia story of going up to $1 trillion in 2021 and $3 trillion in 2024 shows. Such a deal draws anti trust concerns with too much control under one company. A deal for takeover of British owned ARM by Nvidia was stopped by regulatory authorites in UK and the EU in 2022. The US government is giving $8.5 billion to Intel to build up its chip making technology in competition with China. The Gelsinger plan is for manufacturing to be boosted up, so is the effort of the Biden administration. It may take time yet it is the right approach for the US. Pat Gelsinger is leading this effort at Intel. In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China.    ...

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The US should push forward with its plans to compete with China and Taiwan in the chip business. That was the intent of the Chips and Science Act that both parties supported in Congress. The naysayers simply don't want to take up the difficult challenges and are wilting even before the struggle to regain advantage in chip US manufacturing technologies has begun. Gelsinger at Intel says the scale is necessary for gaining technologies, and making chips for other companies is key to doing this. The products business and business manufacturing for other companies complement each other and enables Intel to co-develop technologies and introduce them faster. Amazon cloud computing has given Intel its business order for AI fabric chips, other companies will also decide to go with a US supplier. Gelsinger's goal at Intel is to make it the second largest manufacturer of chips by 2030. This is not just the goal of Intel, it is the goal of the US to recover its chipmaking capacity and technologies as a major priority for the Nation. It takes ten years to make such a change, after the neglect of the US to add funding for US manufacturers as China and Taiwan have done. Intel is doing this faster  and losses will peak in 2024. Leadership at Intel must persevere with "bold, persistent innovation."   ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...

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Republican Speaker Johnson is setting Saturday April 20, 2024 votes in the US Congress for Ukraine-Israel aid in a weekend vote, as Israel and Ukraine face growing threats. Basically the bill Democrats passed in the Senate gets split up into 3 parts for that $95 billion in aid bill to be voted on individually for each part separately for Ukraine, for Israel, for Taiwan. A fourth bill would be for Ukraine aid as a loan, and a measure leading to national ban on TikTok.

"We're not the world's policeman, but we are going to do the right thing. And I think Congress is going to take an important stand."

"We have improved the process and policy. Every member of Congress gets to vote his conscience."

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At a critical juncture in the global fight against the pandemic eight in ten U.S. counties are in lockdown. About 29% of the U.S. economy is offline on April 5, 2020, according to Moody's Analytics. U.S. daily output has fallen by 29% compared to March 2019. Moody's Analytics predicts a 30% annualized decline in the second quarter GDP as businesses gradually reopen in the summer. Higher unemployment and loss of household wealth are likely to cause demand side drops making the recovery very gradual in this scenario. It all depends on how long this lasts and how effective the fight against the pandemic is including the steps taken to cut the spread of the virus, the action taken for rapid testing and isolating of clusters as happened in South Korea and Taiwan, which remain models for effective action.