LyrArc Article Gist
The Commerce Department says U.S. GDP was up an estimated 3.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Government spending was up in the quarter, trade helped increase growth, consumer spending and business investment was steady, with housing still weak.

LyrArc Article Gist
The components in the 6.1% drop in GDP for 1st quarter 2009, from the prior quarter. See the all important graph that shows how things in the breakdown look, and how the economy is behaving, and how it might behave in the future. What is the impact of a10% drop in world trade? For the US which was abig importer, the last 2 quarters saw a shift in consumer buying habits, as economy became the norm, and frugality was in. Imports drop by 6.05%. But exports drop too, with fewer purchases of products the USA makes. THis drop was 4.06%. Consumer spending collapsed in the 4th quarter of 2008. A rebound ocurred in the 1st quarter 2009, as consumer confidence improved as aresult of strong government intervention through the $787 billion stimulus bill, and the new budget that funded priorities in health, education and energy, and supported local governments spending. Consumer spending went up by 1.5%. Residential investment went down by close to the same amount - 1.36%. What was happening in manufacturing capacity utilization. This dropped as inventories were run down, and the change in inventories was a drop of 2.79%. The feeling here is that as inventories were run down there is now the prospect of increasing production and capacity utilization. But unemployment and job losses are not figured into this, and the unknown impact of the new frugaility of the American consumer as it sets in in earnest. If consumer spending remains sluggish, then there is less prospect for increasing capacity utilization. Manufacturing capacity will either be reduced as plants close as in the auto industry, or it will remain unused. And the prospect of exports picking up the slack is remote. This gets one to the crux of the matter which is declining investment in buildings, and equipment. As businesses pull back and lay off employees, a process that will continue for many quarters into 2010 and beyond, with credit tight and demand sluggish at best, the prospect here is of large contribution to negative GDP numbers in the future. For 2009 1st quarter the decline in nonresidential investment was 4.68%, the largest component and the decisive part impacting jobs and production....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. quarterly seasonally adjusted annual growth rate for GDP for the second quarter 2015 is revised to 3.7% growth from the earlier forecast of 2.3%. The first half GDP growth is still low at 2.2% because of a weak first quarter in 2015. Consumer spending representing two thirds of economic output was up 1.8% in the 1st quarter, and 3.1% in the second quarter of 2015. Another factor relevant to economic growth is gross domestic income or GDI, GDP uses expenditures data and GDI uses income data. GDI was up 0.6% for the second quarter 2015, an average of the GDP and GDI numbers provided by the Commerce Department shows a 2.1% annual growth for the U.S. economy for the second quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. jobs added for Dec. 2011, are 325,000, according to ADP figures, but the reliability of these figures has been questioned because of the different methods used in calculating the number. For Nov. 2011, the ADP number for private sector jobs added was 206,000. The same number from the Labor Department was 140,000. For June 2011 there was wide divergence- the ADP showed private sector jobs added as 157,000, the same number from the Labor Department was 57,000 jobs. For December 2010, ADP reported private sector jobs increased by 297,000, and official numbers showed 113,000. For December there are seasonal issues as well that affect the figures. Other factors affecting the jobs picture is the loss of jobs inthe government sector, and the gains in jobs predominantly coming from poorly paid retail and restaurant industries and fewer job gains in the better paid construction and manufacturing industries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Cost of a bailout of Fannie and Freddie at 10% of GDP or 1.4 trillion dollars.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's GDP declined by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2012. GDP is expected to decline in the fourth quarter putting Japan in a recessionary phase. The rebound effects following the tsunami and earhtquake are receding and sales to China are sluggish. The strong yen and the eurozone crisis hurts exports. The proposed sales tax increase by the Noda government may be jeopardized by the recessionary phase.

LyrArc Article Gist
The latest Commerzbank estimates show Germany and Japan, both with large capital goods industry, showing declining GDP of about 7% in 2009. That is a steep decline stemming from the lower demand in industrializing countries like China, India and other countries. The German government has only committed so far 88 billion euros ($120 billion) or 3.5% of GDP. To get some idea what the German government is thinking look at the GDP numbers from the government, which show only a 2.25% decline. Compare this with other estimates closer to Commerzbank's estimate- BNP Paribas shows 5.4% contraction, Deutsche Bank 5%, German think tank DIW 4-5% drop. And the government estimate scheduled date for revision is April 29. This may explain the gap between what the Obama administration is saying to the Europeans: you need further stimulus, and what the Chancellor Merkel is saying: we will be just fine. The French government is saying saying the same thing the German government is saying. But France with a smaller export industry is expected to see a drop of less than 4%, the USA 4%, by Commerzbank estimates. Experts say as German elections approach in September, Merkel is going to have to respond with larger stimulus amid large job losses. And sentiment may be shifting in France as job losses mount, as evidenced by large turnout across France calling on the government to help in recent demonstrations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's showed GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter of 2012, as it rebounded strongly from the 2011 earthquake and tsunami with higher public investment.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter was at annual pace of 1.3% for the second quarter, down from the previous estimate of 1.7%, according to the Commerce Department. About half of this or 0.2% comes from the severe drought and drop in farm inventories, with crop production declining by $12 billion. Macroeconomic Advisors now estimates GDP growth of 1.5% for the third quarter of 2012, down from 2%. The drought continues in 65.5% of the U.S., according to U.S. Drought Monitor. Consumer spending and business investment is sluggish. The drought impact is likely to take out one tenth of GDP growth for the fourth quarter 2012 and 1st quarter 2013, through the impact of higher food prices and lower real incomes and wealth.

LyrArc Article Gist
NATO members except Spain agree to spend 5% on defense, 3.5% on military and 1.5% on defense industry. Germany makes purchase of 35 F-35 fighter aircraft from the US for $8.2 billion in 2025 to be fitted with cruise missiles from Norway. Defense minister Pistorius says Germany has moved with "supersonic speed" on defense capabilities. This a big change from Scholz. New CDU chancellor in coalition with the SPD is Friedrich Merz who with a popular former defense minister Pistorius from the Scholz coalition and the new SPD finance minister in the Merz coalition Lars Kingbeil, is changing the way Germany looks at investing for the future. It has embraced defense of Europe and modernization of German infrastructure. German federal elections gives the coalition of Merz the 28.6 votes percentage of CDU/CSU in addition the SPD's 16.4% for governing with 45% of the vote, and additional 11.6% of SPD's ally the Green Party which supports it outside the coalition for total 57%. For this reason it is a coalition government with real clout to get things done for Germany's modernization. Much of the media focus is on AfD's far right 20.8% but this has been offset by the Left Parties gaining 14% of the vote in the formerly communist East (GDR) where the AfD is based. Thus about 60% of German voters support Merz/Lingbeil/Pistorius for some far reaching action by Merz well into 2030, for the first time since reunification in 1990. To add to this most of Europe including Germany under Merz has embraced a tough line on illegal migration similar to DJT in US so that far right AfD gains from discontent have reached their high point at 20.8%.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Indian economy is expected to grow at 8.9% instead of the 9.2% estimated earlier for 2021-2022.

LyrArc Article Gist
US economic growth for the fourth quarter 2021 was at the annual rate of 6.9%. Economic growth rate for full year 2021 was 5.5%. This is the fastest growth since 1984 when  growth followed a double dip recession and high inflation. Most of the surge in growth in 4th quarter 2021 was from companies restocking merchandise and shelves and not from people buying more stuff. Without these inventory effects growth in fourth quarter 2021 would be 1.9%, according to the Commerce Department. Sales of durable goods, of cars refrigerators, actually fell in December.

For the current quarter, the first quarter of 2022, forecasts show growth will slow to 2%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The UK government figures show GDP growth for the 3rd quarter 2012 of 1%. In the 1st quarter the economy contracted 0.3% and in the 2nd quarter 2012 it contracted 0.4%. This news is tempered by the fact that one time factors such as the Olympics accounted for the increase. For the year the results for GDP growth are likely to be flat and only modest growth is expected in 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
US Defense Spending charts as percentage of GDP since 1929 startling fact seen in this chart of Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis- that in 2026 we are seeing 1929-1937 levels of military spending to GDP ratio of 2-3% just before it jumped to 45% in 1940 in World War II. It is a cautionary tale not to spend too little (2-4% is a danger point), as lack of military modernization means a lot more spending soon after, almost 10 times that- 10 times 4% or 40%. Message to the US is not what Starmer and company are saying in Europe- it is that don't invite the existential crisis of 1940 again for western (US, EU, Canada, UK) and eastern democracies (India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia) by ignoring costs of military modernization. And 2-4% of GDP for military spending is not going to do this.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's LDP PM Sanae Takaichi wins 300 of 465 seats in 2026 snap election up from 198 seats for the LDP party, a super majority without its ally Japan Innovation Party.