LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico replaces China as the U.S. top trading partner in the first half of 2019. U.S. imports from China fell by 12% and exports fell by 19% in first half 2019, according to Commerce Department. The total value of trade with China of $271 billion was less than the trade with either Canada or Mexico.

Mr. Trump said yesterday to China- "If they don't want to trade with us anymore, that would be fine with me. Until such time as there is a deal we will be taxing them." He went on to say he would place 25% tariff on additional $300 billion of Chinese goods on Sept. 1, 2019.

Meanwhile in first half 2019 the U.S. imports increased to 34% from Vietnam. Some of this could be Chinese goods transhipment through Vietnam. Japan, South Korea, India, Europe, all increased exports to the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Yucatan Rail Project being moved forward by Lopez Obrador in Mexico is shown here in the WSJ. It moved forward during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and connects the Yucatan cities by rail. Yucatan cities  including Campeche and Merida bring about 8% of the country's exports and 10% of the country's GDP. Modern rail at 99 mph would connect the cities in the Yucatan to increase industry and tourism to develop the south east of the country. This is similar to the projects on the Brahmaputra river in the northeastern parts of India that are being opened up by new infrastructure rail and bridges for industry and tourism. Both the Yucatan and India's northeast are parts of the country that have much potential and have investment needs that were not realized in the past by previous administrations. The environmental impact in the northeast part of India and for the bullet train in the western region from Mumbai to Ahmedabad were held up by environmental concerns. A similar situation has happened for the Yucatan Rail Project. Even when enough trees were to be planted to help Mumbai residents for its Metro construction also shown in WSJ, he project was held up for political reasons. The bullet train project after its delay for political reasons will now cost nearly double that it would have cost before. It is supported by Japanese aid at very favourable financial terms that pay for the project, including direct government aid and Japan's rail technology. It is now moving ahead in 2022.  Infrastructure plays a key role in developing economies such as India and Mexico, yet it requires resolute conviction and perseverance as much of the political setup as shown in Mexico leads to leakage of funds meant for infrastructure and very little being done at great cost to the ease of living of ordinary people. In Mumbai and other cities in India. The same is true for Mexico which at this time of the pandemic needs to bolster its spirits and move ahead with much needed development work to help people in all parts of the country. With the Yucatan Rail Project Mexico can move to the next phase with wind farms on the Yucatan out to sea, and solar energy projects that could with new technology be transmitted to other parts of Mexico and to the US. It is important to keep trying and persevere on these new projects and look to a brighter future. For Mexico US relations better living conditions in Mexico also relieves the burden of illegal immigration and problems related to it in neighborly relations. Mexican officials should increase contacts with Indian officials working on the projects in the Assam region and  along the Brahmaputra river, in Indian states in the northeast, to exchange ideas and notes to gain from each other's experiences in integrating regions that were previously not integrated into the Indian and Mexican economies. This is a topic to be added to the G-20 topics to be discussed at the next meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on November 15-16, 2022. For Mexico it is an opportunity to also widen its infrastructure work to learn from what India is doing in solar and wind energy and build collaborative efforts. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
American singer Linda Ronstadt looks back to her roots in the Rio Sonora region of Mexico in this AARP excerpt about her years growing up in that region before her father moved to Tucson, Arizona. Her album Canciones de mi Padre, is the best selling non English music album in the US of all time. Her book is called- Feels Like Home- Song for the Sonoran Borderlands. It looks at the emotional and physical links between the US southwest and Mexico and the hold that this region has on the popular imagination. She says that wherever she has lived, wherever she has travelled, her soul is always winging it down the road, to the land south of the border. A stretch of desert she calls her foothold to the world. Today millions of Mexican Americans share this heritage and this kind of genetic memory. When the Spanish landed in the 1500's there was no border. The land and its physical aspects have not changed through waves of immigration- this story in the AARP magazine shows the agaves in the backdrop of the Huachuca mountains. Apple Music has Ronstadt's album and The Arbolitas, a song of the trees, etched in the Sonoran sunlight.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The increasing number of dengue fever cases in South America with 2.6 million cases in 2024 three times that in 2023.

Costa Rica, Caribbean, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina, Colombia top foreign destinations for US travelers have high rate of dengue fever caused by mosquitoes. Cases in South America spike during the summer which is from December to February.

LyrArc Article Gist
One foreign policy expert says president Trump tried to reverse everything in Obama's foreign policy almost to the point of an obsession. He visits Saudi Arabia before visiting Mexico and Canada, close neighbors, as other presidents have done. The relationships with Mexico and Canada deteriorated. Yet Mr. Trump has a good personal connection with Trudeau of Canada and Macron of France.  Taking the advice of advisers including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, president Trump despite tough talk on the North American Free Trade Agreement, takes a moderate approach on NAFTA renegotiation. Trump also softens some of the rhetoric on China as he seeks Chinese help to restrain North Korea. An international coalition of states supported by the U.S. reverses gains by Islamic State, with Iraq and Iran gaining over Islamic State. President Obama's policy of not taking decisive action, reversed towards the end of the second term, had led to the rise of Islamic State and the refugee crisis in Europe as refugees left Syria and Iraq. NATO or the South Korean defense was not significantly weakened as feared at the beginning of the first year. Missile defense proceeded in South Korea with U.S. missile systems. The appointment of a senior senator from Texas, Kay Hutchinson, signaled that the NATO policy had not changed significantly. As a result it could be said that the year 2018 began with a bang about the risks internationally with president Trump's unconventional approach, and ended without some of the worst fears being realized. Relations between North and South Korea improved as Koreans decided to work together for peace in the peninsula- with North Korea agreeing to participate in the Winter Olympics in South Korea.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It took action by DJT for what Canada and Mexico could have done from common sense. This is an unconventional use of tariffs by the US. Yet this was an unconventional situation in which the US under several administrations Republican and Democrat Clinton-Bush-Obama, allowed the situation at the Border leave the US in a deteriorating situation with its neighbors to the north and south. Canada and Mexico could have acted before the 25% yet they did not act till the tariff was imposed. A situation such as this cannot be found in the history of the United States of America from its founding in 1776, not in 225 years has the US seen such loss of life from fentanyl and drugs crossing its borders, or the constant flow of illegal migration, neglect of its auto industry and jobs in the US. DJT stated on Truth Social media site-"Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border. I am very pleased with this initial outcome, and the Tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final Economic deal with Canada can be structured." "Fairness for all!"   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The efforts by the Republican Senator Lankford of Oklahoma with the help of Senator Graham of South Carolina, Senator Tillis of North Carolina, and other Republican senior senators, to get a immigration bill through the US Congress that president Biden supports to close the border with Mexico immediately after its passing, is the subject of this video in the WSJ. It says this is the only solution for the immigration crisis not waiting another 12 months to take action. The problem is the parole and asylum policies of the US which need fixing, says Senator Lindsay Graham, the senior Republican in the Senate. The bill would do just that, yet faces opposition from Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana in the House of Representatives who says the bill would be dead on arrival in the House, making it inexplicable.

LyrArc Article Gist
Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Ram Manohar Lohia, George Fernandes and Mulayam Singh Yadav are socialist leaders in the early years following independence who followed some of the same sentiments for renewal of India that are carrying India forward and have helped it cope with the pandemic and other problems. Yadav was chosen for Padma Vibhushan award this year. About Lohia it can be said that he provided a vigorous voice for democratic alternatives during the Nehru period, as did Acharya Kripalani. Both of whom have received less attention in independent India on the verge of its 75th anniversary in 2024 than they deserved.  They and in some ways Mulayam as a student of Lohia provided the voices needed for the vibrant Democracy that is India today, that is a partner for the democracies of the world from the US to Europe to Brazil and Mexico, to South Africa.

LyrArc Article Gist
A country smaller than the US state of Connecticut will host the first World Cup Soccer games in the Arab world from November 21 to December 18. England will play US , the day after Thanksgiving.

Group A  Netherlands with Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal

Group B   England with Iran, US, Wales or Scotland/Ukraine

Group C.  Argentina with Saudi, Mexico, Poland

Group D   France with Peru, Australia/United Arab Emirates, Denmark, Tunisia

Group E  Spain, Germany, Japan with Costa Rica or New Zealand

Group F  Belgium with Canada, Morocco, Croatia

Group G.  Brazil with Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon

Group H   Portugal with Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea 

Defending champion France has it better in its group. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Efforts to close the route used by migrants on Panama's border with Columbia which is now the real US Border in the South. At this border migrants make their way through jungle called the 70 mile Darien Gap to reach buses taking them to Mexico.

LyrArc Article Gist
South Korea with 2069 hours year has the longest working hours of any developed country, according to the OECD,  and only Mexico exceeds this of all countries. In an effort to increase productivity and boost a dropping birthrate the National Assembly in South Korea reduced the maximum number of working hours from 68 hours a week to 52 hours- starting July 2018 and  initially for large companies. In Japan there is actually a word for working to death called "karoshi." The period of rapid industrialization in the fifties and sixties was a period of long working hours for most Japanese men. Today the working hours have dropped to average of 1713 a year. Africa shows the greatest number of countries in which one third of the labor force works more than 48 hours per week. Asia is the region with the longest working hours with 30% of the countries with thresholds of 60 hours or more.The U.S. is one of the countries where there is no limit- most other developed countries in Europe consider work-life balance important and have maximum limits without sacrificing productivity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Global supply chains in industries such as clothing and other consumer items, in autos, and in tech products are changing as the shift away from China continues with the Trump administration's tariffs war. The clothing and other consumer products manufacturing is shifting away from China. Auto production is centred on regional hubs for manufacturing under renegotiated trade agreements such as the one that replaced NAFTA in North America, correcting imbalances in wages and U.S. content. Mexico gets to stay as a auto hub with exports of $50 billion in 2018 but under new rules that the Trump administration sees as fair. India is being considered as an auto production hub in Asia. In tech products China continues to have an edge but this is changing gradually. Samsung has built a huge smartphone manufacturing complex in Vietnam. South east Asia is a beneficiary, so is Mexico. In the future India stands to gain as its manufacturing base expands and infrastructure develops. In this changed scenario China will be moving to produce more advanced technological products, as it shifts away from lower end products. This will also correct some of the grossly unfavorable trade imbalances that have developed with the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Even though U.S. president Trump has singled out countries such as Mexico, South Korea and China for trade practices, the U.S. today faces stronger competition in trade from Germany. The trade surplus with Germany for 2016 was $297 billion for Germany compared to $245 billion for China, according to Ifo economic institute. China's trade surplus according to the World Bank was down from 10% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2016, while Germany's has gone up to 8.5%. The Chinese currency is seen as not being undervalued by some experts, while the euro has lost a quarter of its value in the last 3 years, giving Geman exporters an edge. The U.S. also competes with Germany in nine of the 10 export categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, according to the Peterson Institute. Then why is the focus under U.S. president Trump not including Germany? One reason is that China's products have put a downward pressure on U.S. manufacturing wages, and the the speed with the Chinese manufacturing has grown in certain industries. Germany has very few of the manufacturing subsidies that China provides to its industries. And the depreciation in the euro is not favored by the German government as it opposes the policies of the European Central Bank. Germany also has a higher propensity to save about 10% of GDP compared to about 3% for the U.S., according to OECD. As a result Germany is accumulating foreign assets at a faster rate than any other nation, while the U.S. is borrowing capital from overseas. Ways to change this are minimum wage regulations introduced by the government, but larger measures such as increasing government investment in the economy are not supported as the country prepares for the future with an aging population.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
More evidence in Commerce Department trade figures that president Trump's strategy of imposing tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and renegotiating trade pacts with Canada, Mexico and South Korea was not sufficient to reverse the huge U.S. trade deficit. The international trade deficit in goods and service increased 19% in December from prior month to $59.8 billion. Excluding services that U.S. sells to foreigners such as tourism, intellectual property and banking, the deficit grew to $891 billion the largest on record.

Mr. Trump's tax policy of increasing the fiscal deficit increased growth in the U.S. at a time when the rest of the world economy was slowing leading to higher demand for imports, and the 4 increases in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve helped strengthen the U.S. dollar that pushed up imports.

LyrArc Article Gist
 Nikki Haley was born in Bamberg, South Carolina in 1972, her father became US citizen 1978, her mother 2003, according to her autobiography. She was governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 and served as the US ambassador at the United Nations under president Trump. Article 2 of the US Constitution sets out that only natural born citizens can be president of the US. Commentators have opined that the natural born citizen requirement was put in to mean that the citizen was not naturalized at some later date. During the 1730's under British Common Law and under the Naturalization Act of 1790 of the First US Congress children of Ameircan citizens born overseas were considered to be American citizens. This was true of Barry Goldwater born in Arizona before it became a US state, and Romney born in Mexico, Senator McCain born in the Panama Canal Zone. This is why when one parent is an American citizen as for Obama and Cruz this law prevails. When a child is born in the US he is considered to be a citizen at birth under the laws of the US and natural born under Article 2 of the US Constitution. Supporting US literacy about civics  knowledge for children is the best way to get the best outcomes for the civic life of the United States as promoted by Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor through iCivics site, and by Lyrarc under the Movement for Global Literacy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
States with zero tolerance laws for marijuana use are Arizona, Utah, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Washington, Montana, Nevada,  Illinois and Ohio also restrict driving using marijuana. About 15 million people reported using marijuana in 2019 in the US, according to AAA.  And 15% of the US population uses marijuana up from 7% 10 years earlier, according to Gallup. Highway Safety officials at the state level say as lot of attention was paid into revenue coming to the state and not enough to highway safety for the legalization of marijuana use. 24 states legalized recreational use of marijuana, 39 states allowed medical use. States that legalized recreational use in the western US - Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, Alaska, Hawaii. In the Midwestern US- Illinois, Michigan. In the Southern US  Missouri and Florida, Maryland. In the northeast, Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland Washington DC,     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Baker talks to experts on American presidents about Trump's 100 days in office. One expert says the presidency has changed Trump more than Trump has changed the presidency. Trump has told reporters recently that the job was harder than he thought, the decisions requiring much more thought and much harder. Described during the campaign as following instincts, impetuous and brushing off briefings, the Trump that has emerged in the early period is a president who surprisingly has been willing to listen to advice from Republican leaders in business and government. He has also changed course where appropriate on trade with Mexico, China, Germany and other countries, and shown decision making ability where appropriate such as over use of chemical weapons in Syria. He has listened to Muilenburg of Boeing on the Export-Import Bank, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on NAFTA and Mexico, to Gary Cohn his economic adviser for a careful studied approach on taxes and the economy, as covered here in Lyrarc.  And Trump has built a relationship based on discussions with president Jinping of China, which has helped create a stable climate for world trade and the economy after the ruffled period of the campaign. On NATO and South Korea he has given the lead to his advisers, Gen. Mattis, Tillerson and his vice president Pence. For this to happen president Trump with his exuberant and sometimes volatile personality has shown a capacity for learning and growth over this short period, surprising many. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Otis Elevator is moving a plant based in Nogales, Mexico, back to the U.S. This plant was moved to Mexico in 1998 for cost reasons. Now Otis CEO, Didier Michaud-Daniel, says producing at a new South Carolina plant will cost less than Mexico. Logistics and freight costs are 17.3% less in the U.S. than Mexico, and an additional 20% in savings come from "efficiencies" gained by having all its white collar workers associated with elevator design and production. Most companies that manufacture in China and Mexico keep their design and engineering jobs in the the U.S. It is not clear to what extent American companies have considered all the costs of separating design and engineering from manufacturing, including the opportunities for close cooperation possible in one location that are lost when everything is so spread out. At Otis toolmakers in Dallas and engineers and designers located in Indiana and Arizona traveled to the Nogales, Mexico plant. This can be especially important when as in Otis's case the new plant in Florence, South Carolina, plans the launch of a new generation of elevator designs. In this case there is an added benefit by making it easier for customers to visit the plant and look at the product. The new plant will have more automation and use fewer workers on the factory floor. The new factory will employ 360 workers including white collar workers, the same as the Nogales, Mexico, plant with a lower number of factory floor workers. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China, India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, countries that are part of the G-20 are not part of the G-8. Without the developing countries no real progress can be made on climate change or on emissions control. Climate change was a key focus of this summit in Itlay for the G-8 but with India and China only on the sidelines and acting more as an opposition excluded from the main deliberations the whole climate change agenda had to be shelved. The European countries lose influence in an enlarged summit so the G-8 keeps going along. Sweden holds the rotating Presidency of the EU, so the Swedes are there also. And so is Portugal in away with Manuel Barroso representing the European Commisssion. Except Japan, Asia is not represented, and no country from Africa or Latin America is represented. The European club looks like an anachronism and it is. Merkel and Sarkozy say they know this, but there is too much resistance in Europe to giving up this privilege. When the Guardian reported that Italy may be left out in future meetings of an expanded summit. the Italian press and the Italian prime minister Berlusconi denounced the report. Other countries that lose influence in an expanded arrangement are Canada and Japan. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Trump administration is looking at ways to protect U.S. automobile manufacturing by enforcing stricter environmental rules for automobile imports. The EPA is looking at whether VW which has 3.5% of the American market can be asked to meet stricter standards because the diesel emissions scandal gives the U.S. legal justification to set stricter emissions rules. VW has accepted that it used illegal software to evade government emissions tests. Such non tariff barriers are faced by the U.S. companies in Japanese, South Korean, Chinese markets. It is not clear how this would affect the 17.1 million cars made in NAFTA factories with parts made in one country and shipped for assembly in another country, between Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The situation in Tampico, Mexico, with corruption, crime and dangers to public safety, show the problems Mexico is still grappling with to ensure a rule-of-law state right next to the U.S. The paradox is that of a breakdown in public safety with Calderon's war against drug gangs undermined by corrupt police and local government, and the continued foreign investment in the country. DuPont is investing $500 million in a new plant near the port of Tampico and South Korea's steel manufacturer POSCO is planning a $300 million investment to double production in this area.

LyrArc Article Gist
Who is this boy born in 1971 growing up in Dutch Apartheid South Africa who studied at Pretoria Boys School in 1988? The head teacher at Pretoria Boys was Armstrong who reflected the English values that came from the British settlement of South Africa in the 19th century till the Boer War period- the English fighting what they see as the less cultured Dutch settlers in Natal state around 1900.  The answer -Elon Musk, who went back to Canada, his mother's country. His father Errol Musk still lives in Cape Town, South Africa. Till 2016 Elon and his brother were alienated from their father over Apartheid and the relations between blacks and whites of that period.  The illegal immigration since 2016, fentanyl crisis causing hundreds of thousands of deaths in the US from illegal flows of drugs from Mexico and Canada with sourcing from China, the collapse of Venezuela and gang crime in central American states has changed the thinking of the Musk family since 2020, says this story in The Guardian. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerlad Seib points out that one should look less at what president Trump accomplished in the first 100 days and more at how he operated and learned during this initial period. This is certainly true because much of what happened in the first 100 days contradicts some of the tone that Trump setup during the campaign. When it comes to governing Trump has made an effort to learn and adapt and show resilience in the face of early setbacks on the travel ban and the health care bill, the Flynn episode. After this early period Trump took on a more disciplined approach, gave more room to and listened to more respected advisors- Tillerson on foreign affairs in shaping policy with Russia leading to Tillerson's presence at Lucca massacre memorial in Italy sending a clear signal about U.S. policies in line with its role in the past century in world affairs, Gary Cohn and Ross on economic policy and seeking Cohn's advice on tax plan, Ross's on NAFTA negotiations with Mexico. As a result the NAFTA fears were calmed down with statements by Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, that the goal was a win-win relationship with Mexico. Trump worked with his party in Congress to have the Supreme Court nomination of Gorsuch approved. Meetings with Merkel of Germany and Jinping of China were carefully planned and new relationships established as Seib points out, without ruffling trade relations. The appointment of Robert Lighthizer, as Trade Representative, also shows that efforts to give the U.S. a more level playing field in trade will be resolutely pursued in the win-win context. Lyrarc has profiled Lighthizer earlier in this decade after his op-eds in the media as he correctly anticipated the changing public mood on the need for fairness in trade relations. On relations with China and South Korea, Jim Mattis has taken the lead, and Pence's visit to South Korea also show deftness in handling what is one of the most difficult issues in foreign affairs. Mattis and Tillerson also have helped reinforce the Republican party policies on NATO and Europe, with the visit of NATO secretary general Stoltenberg to the White House. In the end it is how much you can learn in the first year, how much you listen, and the courage to act in difficult situations, the willingness to act contrary to one's instincts and self interest where necessary, that matters. This is especially true in an environment where as Seib points out the Democratic Party stands opposed to the Trump administration following a bitter election campaign.   ...