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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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Retirement in America 2026- what to watch out for- $6500 per month full time home health aide. There is  $45.8 trillion in US IRA's 401 (K)  in 2026. It was half that in 2015. People are saving more 8-12% of income. A lot of it invested in arget dated mutual funds. Yet older Americans, seniors are facing poverty- 15% in 2025 compared to 10.7% of older Americans living in poverty in 2021. cost of living has hit this group the hardest. Removing the tax on Social Security could be prescient, popular and fair for these Americans, as suggested by DJT. If invested well this $45 trillion could give the US leadership in investment for decades to come as it grows with good management of investments raising living standards and financing the Nation's rebuilding of infrastructure in all areas.

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As corruption investigations proceed in Turkey and the split in the ruling AKP party becomes irreversible the effects are felt on the Turkish lira. Turkey's lira declined to 2.097 to the dollar on Dec. 20, 2013. Turkey's borrowing costs jumped with yields on 2 year government bonds at 9.61%.

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U.S. president Trump says former FBI director lied under oath in testimony before Congress, and disputes Comey's comments that he was fired because of the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump campaign and Russia.That investigation is now in the hands of Special Counsel Mueller. Trump called Comey "a leaker."

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A look at the economic collapse in Lebanon as reported in the NYT. Lebanon depended on foreign inflows of money for its economy and standard of living. The economy has collapsed in recent years because of mismanagement, corruption and sectarian conflict. A civil war in Syria. and wars in the Middle East hurt Lebanon's economy after 2011.  After Lebanon's civil war ended in 1990 the central bank decided to tie the currency lira to the US dollar at 1507 lira to the dollar. To be able to exchange lira for dollars the central bank had to attract dollars. To attract foreigners to deposit dollars the central bank head decided to pay 15% interest. With insufficient US dollars as dollars were also needed for imports, the central bank ended up paying depositors with dollars from new deposits, what is called a Ponzi scheme says the NYT. When these deposits stopped coming in 2019 people could not withdraw their money. Three developments after 2019 hurt the economy. The pandemic hurt tourism which makes up 18% of the Lebanese economy. The pandemic hit Lebanon hard. Then in 2020 a bomb blast hit Beirut port from an abandoned ship in the port destroying three large neighborhoods that could not be repaired. ...

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This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

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With interest rates at 22% and inflation of over 20% Turkey's foreign investment and consumer driven economy continues to struggle. In Istanbul's markets fruit vendors say buyers buy half the quantity they normally used to buy. Prices are high with the loss of value of the Turkish currency the lira, that lost about 40% of its value in the space of about 1 year. Turkish president Erdogan has in the past increased support with the economic boom in Turkey, which is now fading. High interest rates need to be brought down for the economy to recover. Erdogan fires the central bank chief for not cutting interest rates. In the past foreign investors continued investments in Turkey, yet today the confidence of foreign investors is declining, affecting the value of the Lira currency. High interest rates are a central bank policy response to keep the value of the Lira from declining further, but at a cost for ordinary Turkish people who pay high prices, reducing the standard of living. High interest rates to attract foreign capital to support the Lira also reduce investment and employment with the higher cost of borrowing.  The high prices because imports cost more with a weak Lira mean less can be purchased reducing what can be purchased with existing incomes. ...

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The U.S. imposes tariffs of 10% on aluminium and 25% on steel imported from Turkey, in an effort to offset the effects of a weakening Turkish currency. The lira has dropped by 36% in 2018 so far. 

The U.S. has placed sanctions on Turkey and demanded the release of a U.S. pastor detained in Turkey.

The sanctions have increased the drop in the Turkish Lira, with the Lira dropping 14% on August 8, 2018.

 

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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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It is not uncommon for older officers to make way for younger officers with the change in administration. Admiral Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations, a native of Rochester NY, started her career with the US Navy in 1985 through the ROTC at Northwestern University. Her career moved with the new timeline for women serving in the Navy. Nothing in her career should be seen as being detracted from her retirement by DJT. 1978- US Navy removes rule preventing women from serving on ships at sea. 1993 - US Navy removes rule preventing women from serving on warships at sea. 2010 - US Navy removes rule preventing women from serving on submarines at sea. Lisa Franchetti spent 20 of 40 year service on ships at sea- USS Ross destroyer, a destroyer squadrons, 2 aircraft carrier strike groups, all naval forces in Korea, Sixth Fleet in Mediterranean. She was promoted to Vice Chief of Naval Operations and Admiral in 2022, and as Chief in 2023. ...

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Tim Lee has predicted the collapse of the Turkish currency Lira for 7 years in his investment newsletter. Like other economists who saw warning signs in Turkey's overdependence on foreign capital to finance credit and growth, Lee found himself ignored and lost clients as the Turkey boom that benefited Mr. Erdogan party continued.  The doubling of tariffs on Turkey's steel has finally focused investors minds on the situation in Turkey. These figures are sobering- about 70% of Turkey's economy is dependent on foreign loans denominated in U.S. dollars, according to the IIF, the Institute of International Finance. The loss of the currency Lira's value by 70% in 2018 means that the dollar denominated loans made by Turkish banks to businesses in Turkey will be harder to pay with revenue made in Lira. Another startling statistic is that American investors own 25% of outstanding Turkey's bonds, and about 50% of publicly traded Turkey stocks. The deterioration of relations with the U.S. is more likely to lead to investors focusing on this aspect of the Turkish situation and pulling back.     ...

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The Turkish lira gained 11 percent against the dollar in the 6 months between early May 2010 and October 2010. Turkey's current account deficit has widened from a small surplus to a gap of 5% of GNP. But political leaders take pride in the lira's rise and are doing nothing to curb the rise. Large capital inflows into Turkey are chasing higher rates, and helping finance the current account deficit.

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US Senator Lisa Murkowski gets $25 billion for rural hospitals and assistance for Alaska in One Big Beautiful Act 2025. She was the 50th vote for the Tax Cuts Bill in the US Senate, without her vote the bill would not pass. Senator John Thune worked hard to get her on board. At about 1.30 am in the wee hours she agreed to support it only after getting $25 billion for rural hospitals and special allocations for Alaska healthcare needs, and other benefits for Alaskans including $25 billion for the Coast Guard. Places are spread far out in Alaska and patients have to be flown in to Anchorage for care. Alaska is a different place for health care including needs of native tribes. Lisa Murkowski is a rare senator with a passion to serve Alaska, and her concerns for disadvantaged people.

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The US Labor Department will now require not just 401(k) administrators but also advisers for retirement plans called IRA's to follow the higher fiduciary standards of the 1974 ERISA law that aims to protect American retirees. When workers leave a company or retire they rollover their money into IRA's. This retiree money will now be protected with a high fiduciary standard as it should have been all along. In 2020 alone the IRS estimate is that $620 billion was rolled over to to such IRA's.

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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Morgan McSweeney acquired power as an organizer removing Corbynite left politicians from the Labour party. He is from County Cork, Ireland, his father an IRA courier, who left Ireland to get a politics and marketing degree from Middlesex University. He helped Labour politicians in London during the Corbyn years and settled on Keir Starmer as the candidate for a shift to the center in politics. There was something strange about Labour's win in 2024 as it got only 34% of the vote and still a large majority. It now appears that this was a highly flawed win, as Starmer was never able to take positions on major issues without depending on McSweeney for advice and backtracking. Worse 50% of Labour's vote disappeared in 2026 polls by February hardly 2 years after the win in 2024, as the support McSweeney helped organize had no depth of conviction- most of it to Liberals and Greens under Polanski. The result is that even the Guardian is disappointed and says McSweeney installed Starmer as PM, and then made him "the most unpopular PM in history." Net favorability in Feb 2026 is -57 similar to Sunak of Conservatives in June 2024. A 75% unfavorable rating in Jan 2026. And 14 points below the Labour party in "like" ratings. Only 18% are favorable for Starmer. ...

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Heavy foreign borrowings from Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, help sustain the Turkish economy in 2022. Private companies reduce their non lira borrowings after dollar borrowings became unsustainable. Inflation reaching a high of 80% is likely to ease in 2023 to 20% in line with global inflation in other countries. Turkey's current account deficit is about 0.3 billion in November, down from 2.9 billion the prior month as global energy prices decline. The dollar is coming down from its peak and central banks are expected to bring rates down with slowing inflation. The net international reserves have reached $23 billion. A 60% drop in the currency has increased tourism revenues. Mr. Erdogan is likely to run again for president in 2023, which will be his last run for the presidency. 

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What harm will one ton of carbon dioxide pollution cause to the planet? Under Obama administration $50, under Trump administration $5, under Biden administration $200.  Mr. Revesz asks the obvious question others forgot to ask- how does this regulation or change affect future generations, what problems children and grand children won't face because of this action? The man who heads OIRA is given the task of doing the cost benefit analysis for billions of dollars of US government projects designed to fight climate change. Because of its looming importance Mr. Revesz of NY University School of Law was brought right into OIRA in the White House instead of the EPA. The Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) is located right in the White House. It is the gatekeeper and final word on new federal regulations on climate change. Astounding as it may sound, during the Obama and Trump administrations no effort was made to track the cost of climate change for future generations. Mr. Revesz is changing that. As a result of his efforts at NYU School of Law and in assisting attorneys general in the Trump administration, and now at the Whit House he is changing the way the world looks at climate change action. He shows how the EPA new rules on tailpipe emissions will promote electric cars. The benefits exceed $1 trillion from the shift and this will show that it exceeds the cost of the fossil fuel companies and the US economy making the changes required. ...

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Lael Brainard, formerly Fed Governor and president Biden's key economic policy adviser, takes leadership in protecting the $779 billion of 401K's that in 2023 were rolled over for retirement savings into IRA's. Brainard says- "When a retirement saver pays for trusted economic advice that is not actually in their best interest and comes at a hidden cost in their lifetime savings, that's a junk fee." When the courts failed to introduce regulatory oversight of IRA's the Biden administration has introduced the protection under junk fee protection. 

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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In this video from Sky Sports News Carlos Ancelotti passionately calls out the racism in La Liga evident in a recent game in Valencia. He says he does not see it in the Premier League. He also says responding in the right way can make things better, not by remaining silent or making excuses. 

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Zenedin Zidane leads Real Madrid to the 2020 title in the La Liga. Sergio Ramos, Benzema, Asensio and Bale showed Real Madrid could still win without Renaldo as it widened its lead over Barcelona. Zidane joins Klopp and Guardiola as one of the best coaches in soccer for motivating players to reach for their best.

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Seen as IRA's these accounts in DJT's One Big Beautiful Act with the government investing $1000 of its money for every newborn's savings account is a powerful way to create wealth for the next generation. It is designed to be invested in funds that grow with the S&P 500, will be available in 2026. Lets look at the power of accumulation in a fund that has $3000 invested in it $1000 by the government, $1000 by a grandparent and $1000 by a parent. Over 10, 20 and 30 years. If the child has $3000 invested in it till he is 18 years this would have $54000 of payments made into the fund.   The actual S&P return has averaged 12-13% over the last 10 years 2023-2024. Including dividends it has grown to 249%. Assuming it grows at 10 percent a year ,the power of compound interest is huge- it will grow to $47,000 in 10 years, 147,000 in 20 years, and 349,000 in 30 years. This is 3 times the average IRA of 127,000 in 2025. Fidelity Investments shows average IRA in 2025 as as $127,000, for 30 year olds 104,000. In a good set of years this account alone would triple the retirement savings of ordinary Americans.   ...