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Russian proposals for settlement in Ukraine including giving up the whole eastern Donbass region, recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and limiting its army and long range weapons. These are the same conditions set in 2022. There is a new situation developing in Europe as Germany, France, Britain and most of Eastern Europe looks to be firm in support of Ukraine. Germany is stepping up its military preparedness under chancellor Merz of the CDU led coalition government. The US under DJT is working under two pathways seeking engagement with Russia and at the same time seeking a way to settle the Ukraine conflict. With German, British and EU support it appears unlikely that Ukraine would agree to all the Russian terms as Russia is using some gains on the war front to gain a clear win in 2025. By 2026 with European support Ukraine may look for a settlement that offers better terms than currently offered by Russia. For the US DJT faces pressures from within the Republican party that would oppose giving Russia a win after its role as the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, and after the bombing destruction of Ukraine's cities.   ...

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Violation of international law or tacit approval of drug states and suppression of the election results in Venezuela- position taken by Oxford's Dill and Germany's Steinmeier is itself controversial. Merz's is realistic. For those concerned about international law is it restricted to any particular period? Then the British policy in China supported by the other powers Japan, Russia, Germany and France to suppress the Boxer rebellion in 1901 and expand Treaty ports that forced opium on China in the period 1850 to the 1930's was not just a egregious violation, horrendous violation of basic human rights on a scale unimaginable in modern times. Much of the prosperity of the Netherlands and Britain, France was achieved through such policy in Asia. Yet Oxford's Dill and Steinmeier have chosen not to look at European history and the Empires of Europe in Asia and Africa for 300 years since 1700. By comparison Venezuelan action comes after the great patience of well meaning people, and the silence of elites in the US and Europe about massive migration encouraged by the regime in Venezuela of one third of its population about 9 million people to neighboring countries including the US, and suppression of free elections, complete mismanagement leading to 150% inflation destroying its economy.  It was not only these elites in the US and Europe that were responsible through their silence, but also the Bush and Obama wars in the Middle East which sapped the resources of the United States. Why is this happening when the Venezuelan people are the main benificiaries of the action taken by the US president to send in its military. All oil sales revenue will no longer go to a corrupt "drugs" state but be used to directly help the Venezuelan people achieve a better standard of living, bring down inflation  and invest in modernization, in these unusual circumstance a program run by Bessent at US Treasury. Those who dislike the unconventional but well meaning style of the US president and his occasional poor choice of words, find every opportunity for criticism even ignoring facts and common sense. Under Chavez and Maduro the Venezuelan economy was simply mismanaged to the point of being destroyed and an affluent country reduced to poverty and inflation so bad that one third or 9 milllion people left for neighboring countries. On this Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier have only this to say- it is somebody's else's problem. we will remain silent. Similarly on introducing nuclear weapons in the Middle East -where most nation states have intermittent wars and economic mismanagement for the last 50 years the artificial states from the Ottoman Empire of Syria and Iraq, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sudan every state impoverished by war and economic mismanagement - Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier in Germany also have only this to say- it is somebody else's problem not ours, we will remain silent. ...

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The controversy surounding Greece's purchase of submarines from Germany costing about 1 billion euros. This at a time when public pensions are being reduced by 5%. A vice admiral of the Greek navy resigned in protest citing this reason, and it is reported that the deals are politically motivated, with the Greek deputy prime minister saying that he feels "national shame" about the decision to buy the submarines. Reports question whether the German and French effort to rescue Greece involves efforts to continue military sales to Greece. Chancellor Merkel denies this. In a visit to Athens Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan said that both Greece and Turkey do not need fighter planes and submarines, and need to reduce military spending to help build their economic future.

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Greece spends 2.2% of GDP on the defense budget compared to 1.2% for Germany for 2014, according to the World Bank. Greece's Syriza government almost took Greece out of the eurozone over spending cuts for the poorest pensioners, submitted the proposed creditor terms for the cuts to a referendum in a manner reminiscent of the rejection of an ultimatum rejected by Greece from Mussolini for occupation of the country, using the term "Oxi" in Greek for "No." Greeks remember this with a postage stamp showing "Oxi," so embedded it is in the Greek memory. And about 85% of young people in Greece vote for "Oxi" in the July 5, 2015 referendum. Why is a NATO member spending so much on defense during a severe crisis, and is the EU right to insist on cuts in defense spending and some of the other reforms. Between 2000 and 2008 Greece's spending on military was about twice the euro area average- close to 3% for Greece compared to about 1.4% for Germany, and much lower in other countries in the euro area. The total Greece debt is not an issue the way it was earlier in 2010-2012, according to experts including Krugman and the former Greece finance minister in separate opeds in the NYT, as its now financed at very low rates, and the next step inevitably under any administration in Berlin and Athens would have been longer maturities and even lower rates- under any administration in Greece, including under Samaras- as the Germans, the Dutch and the French, know deep down it can never be fully repaid. The main issue of money transfer to creditors was tackled by changing the dateline for the surplus the largest issue according to experts, a similiar flexibility shown to Italy, Spain and France for their deficits as their economies suffered from spending cuts, high unemployment. This returns the focus for how Greece can manage its budget prudently including military, welfare, and other areas. The referendum did not change the way Greece will tackle spending under EU guidelines after the Syriza left government accepts the new 3 year package negotiated with the EU in Brussels July 12, 2015. The new plan will include $300 million in cuts for military spending by 2016, and shipowners will now pay taxes....

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Guido Westerwelle, foreign minister of Germany, and former head of the Free Democratic party, made another misstep by describing Germany's support for economic sanctions as a key factor in the fall of the Gaddafi regime. He did not credit NATO's military intervention as the main reason. Westerwelle opposed German support for NATO's military intervention and Germay abstained in a UN security council meeting vote to authorize military force in protecting Libyans from Gaddafi's regime. The results of this policy are seen as diminishing Germany's international image, and seen as isolating it from its allies in Europe and NATO. The new head of the FDP, Phillip Rosler came out strongly to credit NATO for the military intervention, saying: "our deep respect and thanks goes to our allies, who decisively thwarted Gaddafi's murderous units." German chancellor Merkel sidestepped the issue by crediting NATO for its leadership. FDP's rank and file supporters believe that voters will hold the party to account for this and other missteps by Westerwelle. Former German foreign minister, and former Green's party leader Joschka Fischer told Der Spiegel magazine: this was "perhaps the biggest foreign policy debacle in Germany's post-war history." ...

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How European countries Germany, Poland, Britain, France, and Italy are increasing their defense forces and defense budgets to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its military preparations is shown here in DW.com. Under chancellor Merz Germany plans to invest 5% of its GDP in defense for the first time and build Bundeswehr defense forces as the best in Europe. A key factor says DW.com was the speech of chancellor Scholz three days after the invasion of Ukraine, a speech that changed minds in Germany about the needs for defense in the 21st century. It is called the Zeitenwende or turning point speech on Feb 27, 2022.

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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The entire area from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of the US in Pacific is now being covered as the Indo-Pacific region with the US, India, Australia and other nations committed to keeping the international rule of law and freedom of navigation.German Air Force takes part in a joint military exercize of 17 countries for Indo-Pacific in Darwin, Australia. The focus was on rapid deployment. The German Bundeswehr transfer of fighter jets and supply planes in mid-August Rapid Pacific 2022 was done within 24 hours for 6 Eurojets fighter jets, four transport aircraft, and 3 air to air fueling tankers, with 100 tons of material. The exercize from Aug 19 to September 8 was for 2500 personnel and 100 aircraft from all over the world called Pitch Black in Australia's Northern Territory. Next year Gemany plans to have its army participate in Australian exercize. An entire fleet unit is being set for German navy to return to the Pacific waters.  ...

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This WSJ report traces the development of rail, trucking, container shipping and forklift use in Germany, Russia and the US. The World Bank Logistics Index shows Germany ranking first, the US 14th, China 26th, Russia 75th out of 160 countries.  Russia's military relies on a supply system that uses crates instead of container shipping, not much use of forklifts, and relies on rail and conscript labor. During the invasion of Ukraine in April Russian supply lines that did not control rail failed to supply forces leading to slow progress. Because of dense rail lines in the eastern Donbas region Russian supply lines have worked to sustain advances. About 750 miles of rail lines have also been repaired by a special force set up for this purpose.  In a larger sense the problem of logistics and supplying front lines remains. This report shows the contrast between the development of Russian logistics and American logistics described by military experts in the US. The Russian system evolved in the early years of the 20th century based on conscript or free and abundant labor compared to the US where labor was scarce and costly. Automation progressed rapidly with American business taking up use of forklifts and containers during the 1940's extending to its use in the military. During the Vietnam war Cam Ranh Bay US bases were converted to modern container and forklift use. Russia continued through the sixties till today with a different and less automated system of logistics and movement of goods.    The use of modern logistics in Russia is limited to the amount of freight that gets moved in Colombia and much less than France says this report in WSJ. Much of the industrial base in Russia is built around oil and gas exports and manufacturing with movement of supply chain parts has never taken the importance that it has in Germany or the US. This limits the capacity of the Russian military outside the rail lines located towns and cities in Donbas where it has recently made gains. ...

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Lengthy conversations between Scholz, Macron and Putin for over 80 minutes on Saturday last week in which German and French leaders tell Russia that it is getting deeper and deeper into a situation that is bad for Russia. At the same time Scholz and his chief of staff Schmidt emphasize that Russia should not be winning the war. With Russian gains using artillery in the east the situation is again moving in a direction where additional US military assistance would be needed for Ukraine to defend itself. The WSJ Editorial Board says today that such additional assistance should be given to Ukraine.

Germany and France see a shortening of the war as a way to reduce the impact of a sharp recession. Macron and Scholz are making an effort to get Russia to talk directly with Ukraine to reach a settlement to end the war. 

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China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

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US - EU Trade Agreement with 15% tariff on EU imports to the US and $750 billion in US exports over 3 years of LNG, oil and gas, semiconductors etc. Including military purchases. EU would invest $650 billion in the US.  Aircraft and their components, particular chemicals, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products looked set to be exempted from the new tariffs placed by the US on EU imports into US. To even the playing field where German and Japanese cars had a free ride into the American market since 1980, 15% tariffs lower than the 24-25% proposed tariff will be place on German cars. Business in the US sees this as a least bad outcome says WSJ. Yet this ignores that the US gave special privileges to Japanese and American car makers to export into the US since 1980 with no corresponding benefit to the US in other industries or to the US auto industry. This gives the US industries and the US science and technologies opportunities to get back into the game of exporting, opportunities that the US gave to Europe and Japan since 1960. It also strengthens the US economy by helping restore the US as the industrial power it was from 1920-1980.  ...

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The decisive German response to the Ukraine invasion comes within 72 hours of the invasion. "It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin's invading army," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. "That is why we are delivering 1000 antitank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles to our friends in Ukraine." Similar shipments are being made by Netherlands and Britain. The US has committed $350 million additional military aid to Ukraine including "lethal defensive assistance" against invading armored and airborne forces, in the first 48 hours of the invasion.

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Shabana Mahmoud as the new Home Secretary would move migrants to barracks from hotels in UK after illegal boat crossings pose a threat and a distraction from issues of housing, economic growth, cost of living important to 70 million British people. Recently The Times of London described the proposals of Farage at Reform UK as worthy of being listened to and the need for action to stop illegal boat crossings through a policy of deterrence that provides no benefits and doesn't invest billions of dollars in housing illegal boat crossing migrants that only keeps the flow going. The US simply through deterrence and action of the military and National Guard supporting Border Police has shown this works cutting the flow to mere hundreds, a policy that has worked also in Germany under chancellor Merz.

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German arms exports went up by 65% in 2019 over the prior year, reaching $8.8 billion, according to the Economics Ministry. The previous record was set in 2015, followed by 3 years of declining sales. Exports to crisis region can destabilize, as in Yemen. In some situations such as Sahel Africa Chancellor Merkel sees a constructive role for German arms exports to allies.

The largest buyer is Hungary at 1.77 billion euros as Hungary is upgrading its military. Next is Egypt at 802 million euros, and the USA at 483 million euros.

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France plans to increase military spending from 295 billion euros to 400 billion euros for 2024 to 2030. Some of this will come from reform of the pension system that takes up 13.1% of economic output by raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 years. A million people protest in Paris on Jan 20. One of the problems in implementing this is that in France there is significant age discrimination for jobs compared to Germany and other countries. This means workers would have to wait longer for pensions even workers with good qualifications looking for work. Efforts to tackle this cultural issue with companies biased against older workers are lacking.

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The is WSJ report points out that there were differences between the president and his defense secretary Mr. Esper, over the issue whether active duty military should be sent in to control protests in Washington D.C., Minneapolis and other cities in America. On May 25 president Trump considered firing Mr. Esper who said at a Pentagon press conference that he opposed bringing in the military to cities to quell domestic protests. Mr. Esper stated "The option to use active duty forces in a law enforcement role should only be used as a matter of last resort. And only in the most urgent and dire of situations. We are not in one of those situations now."  Military and defense officials were very much opposed to this as fundamentally contrary to military values.  Mr. Trump consulted several advisers who told the president that this was not the right thing to do. Mr. Esper for his part also was making his own preparations to resign and here again his advisers persuaded him to not do this, says this report in WSJ.  The incidents happened as protesters crowded Lafayette Square, the park across from the White House, and the president believed that violent protesters were making it difficult for National Guard troops to maintain control. Mr. Esper is a West Point graduate and former Army officer. The president's advisers from the military included Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Mark Milley. Milley and Esper discouraged the president from invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 and calling in army troops to the cities. Mr.Trump later visited the area around the church near Lafayette Park. The advisers consulted by the president on May 25 were Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, David Urban, and two senators Tom Cotton of Arkansas and James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Mr. Cotton, a first term senator from Arkansas, later wrote a article in the NYT opinion pages on June 3 supporting use of the military. That article had the title "Send in the Troops- Tom Cotton" which NYT says was placed by editors, and appears baffling, considering the importance that this matter presents for the military and the nation. The NYT later stated with the article that it did not reflect "a thoughtful approach"  and lacked the "additional context" that would let readers be informed and think carefully. The essay also had a reference to the constitutional duty to the states from the federal government that could be misinterpreted, and without context. Mike Pompeo, one of the president's close advisers is Secretary of State. He is a West Point graduate, standing first in his class from the U.S. military academy in 1986, served 5 years in Germany in the 4th Infantry Division, before being elected to Congress from Kansas. The other key adviser in the decision Mr. David Urban headed the Trump campaign effort in a key state Pennsylvania. Both appear to be sensitive to public opinion and the thinking in the military.  By June 6 the White House press secretary said that Mr. Esper was instrumental in bringing calm to American cities after a week of protests following the death of Mr. Floyd in Minneapolis. For both Mr. Trump, Mr. Esper, senior White House officials, and the nation, moments for reflection and a sense of gratitude that calmer minds prevailed. ...

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Lord Mountbatten's elder sister Alice was the princess of Battenberg in Germany. Prince Philip's mother was Alice. In this way the last Viceroy of India, a naval officer in World War II, and Prince Philip, are intimately connected. It was Lord Mountbatten who formed a friendship with Jawaharlal Nehru as he negotiated with Gandhi, Sardar Patel and Nehru for the independence of India after the war.  This legacy continued for Prince Philip as he and Princess Elizabeth established a friendly relationship with post 1947 India. After the overthrow of the Greece monarchy following World War I, Prince Philip and the Greece royal family sought refuge in England. Both Mountbatten and Philip are great grandsons of Queen Victoria. Mountbatten is a name adopted by Lord Mountbatten's father to avoid anti-German sentiment in England, adding Mount to Batten from Battenberg. Mountbatten's father was German and became a naturalized British citizen, serving in the British military.  Prince Philip adopted it as his surname after he went to live with his maternal uncle as a young boy. Prince Philip joined the Britannia Naval War College. In 1934 he was introduced to Princess Elizabeth by Lord Mountbatten at a family wedding.  The relationship is significant because of the contribution the two Mountbattens made to the transition to self-rule or Swaraj in India and to the British Commonwealth with its role for India and Britain. ...

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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What a change DJT's first 100 Days and actions on immigration and tariffs , Ukraine and Russia, have made in China's and World relations in Asia, and in Europe - all for the better, significantly better relations worldwide.  China has worked out a peace settlement in Ladakh frontier with India. It has come together in Tokyo with Japanese prime minister Ishiba and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding hands, and South Korea joining, all three nations vowing to remember history and work together. In Europe Russia is being brought back into the community of nations for big power cooperation with the US after 3 years of war in Ukraine. And Germany has removed its constitutional brake on spending that frees up $1 trillion in funding for infrastructure to replace much of its rail and other infrastructure built in 1900. One would not know this reading the NYT on democracy or the WSJ on tariffs or the Washington Post on assault on federal workforce, or the Atlantic, Politico, DW.com or FR24, Der Spiegel, nor Le Monde, much of the world media slanted on way or another. One does not hear about military exercises so often as the world realizes that so called large economies China, Germany, Japan and India all depend on American goodwill and willingness to give rather than take for most of the post war period since 1950. For the last 6 years in the latter half of the Trump administration and the 4 years of the Biden administration during the pandemic relations between China and the US deteriorated and China first retreated into its own then opened up a bit. The initial idea that it could manage the DJT trade actions evaporated as Biden continued the DJT first round of tariffs. Now Navarro, Lighhizer, and his deputy Jamieson are all back advising DJT for anew round of reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for not stopping fentanyl flows.  In 2022 in eastern Ladakh China's PLA had a big standoff with Indian forces in eastern Ladakh at Galwan and Pangong Lake. The Quad was active with Australia India and the US in Indo Pacific and China conducted military exercises close to Taiwan.      ...

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A detailed story on Fethullah Gulen, once an ally of president Erdogan in his effort to reduce the influence of the nation's military but now seen by him as a rival. Gulen lives in Pennsylvania. The recent coup in Turkey, and the efforts by Erdogan to reduce the influence of Gulen supporters in Turkey, has increased tensions between Turkey and the U.S. This is happening just as Turkey's relations with Germany are worsening after the failed coup, the  Erdogan response, and what is seen as a drift to authoritarian rule. Earlier corruption inquiries in 2014 critical of the Erdogan government by judges in the Gulen faction of the AK Party led to the split between the two factions, followed by Erdogan controlling judicial appointments and controlling the media.

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Friedrich Drumpf left Germany at the age of 16, coming to the U.S. in 1885. He came back to Germany to find a wife after running restaurants in California during the time of the Gold Rush. When he tried to return to hsi home town because of his wife was homesick he was expelled a s a draft dodger for missing military service. Kallstadt is a wine producing region. Drumpf was tenacious and keen on getting ahead, a trait that marked his son Fred Trump who built state financed housing in the FDR period in New York, and his on Donald Trump who went into luxury housing. Biographer Gwenda Blair says all members of the family were good at finding loopholes, saving money, and shared the family culture of knowing who the audience is that they are targeting. This is why says Bair that Trump is at ease in being a onetime Democrat, now Republican, sometime liberal and sometimes conservative, and can appeal to people in different ways that would be impossible for most politicians, even people on opposite sides for different reasons. Gwenda Blair is author of two books on the Trump family. "Trumps- Three Generations That Built an Empire," and "Donald Trump: Master Apprentice."     ...

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The earlier interactions between US and Iran have turned into an Iranian effort to develop its nuclear capabilities bringing the situation faced today, and showing the failure to find solutions of everything tried before and not helping the people of the Arab World and the Gulf regions.During the Reagan period American involvement under Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to support the Iraqi invasion of Iran in a balancing act. And just a year earlier the Democrat Carter's efforts to look at the Islamic revolution as a response to the CIA's intervention in Iran's internal affairs under Eisenhower's Foreign minister Dulles to secure oil supplies, and efforts to find a way to good relations with Iran. This was followed by the Democrat Obama negotiating with Iran, normalizing relations and Democrat Biden handing over Iranian assets  of hundreds of billions of dollars that were used DJT says to build its military that had suffered badly under the earlier western sanctions under Republican Trump.  It has led to some of the migration from Syria after Russian involvement that flooded Germany with millions of migrants and destabilized European countries democratic processes.  ...

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Poland and the USA agree on the stationing of missile defenses in Poland by 2012. An American Patriot battery would be transferred from Germany to Poland and operated by a crew of about 100 military personnel.