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Summer tourism is helping support a second wave of the pandemic. This report says Croatia is a case study on how the opening of tourism can trigger a second wave. Because Croatia depends on tourism and Croatia had controlled coronavirus cases in May, the government decided to open its coastline areas to tourists from Europe. These tourists returned home with the infection and spread the virus. Clubs and bars were allowed to reopen for the summer season after the lockdown in April along the Adriatic coast attracting visitors. With 500 miles of coastline and Mediterranean climate, ancient towns and affordable stay, Croatia is crowded with tourists. In 2019 21 million visitors came here according to the Croatia Tourist Board. On Italian visitor from Parma cited here says she found crowded parties and bustling bars and restaurants where hardly anybody kept social distancing and wore masks. People in shops and bars she says told people they did not need to wear masks. The governments in Europe were keen on making up for the economic costs of the pandemic and opened the internal borders of the European Union in June. The opening of resorts in the sunbelt of Europe in Spain and Portugal has led to the spike in cases in Madrid and other cities in Spain. The same is happening in France. But vigilance dropped especially in Croatia where little or no restrictions were visible. Not only were bars allowed to open but the social distancing rules and mask rules were never practiced. Some Croatians call it incomprehensible. It has led to the spike in Germany, Czech Republic and Austria. The Koch Institute says 12% of all new German cases are traceable to Croatia. It is now a fact that international travel is a way the coronavirus accelerates. Governments in France, Germany, and the UK which are not especially dependent on tourism have the option to encourage people to stay in their home countries and remove this cause of acceleration while keeping shops and offices open so that business and jobs are preserved. For people hurt by lack of employment in the hospitality industry and others with lost wages from being in an occupation that acts to accelerate the virus it is a better option to offer financial assistance than to end up closing offices and shops in another partial lockdown. Opening bars helped accelerate the pandemic in California after the lockdown with steeply rising numbers of new cases. Educating the public to the extent that it should be about the dangers is also missing.    ...

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Health authorites in Italy, France, Britain India and the U.S, have hesitated in reopening schools. Germany and Denmark have reopened schools with no increase in infections with schools following specific policy including mandatory masks, air circulation rules, and careful preparation of schools to ensure social distancing rules are respected. Other countries reopening schools are Austria, Norway, Finland, Australia, New Zealand.

Schools in German states are reopen for about 1 month now, with a positive experience after careful preparation. Italy faces difficulty reopening its economy as people going back to work find it difficult, particularly women,with childcare provided by grandparents no longer an option, and lack of daycare. Opening of schools in Italy would help in reopening the economy, as well as provide relief to parents and children, when done carefully.

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Jens Spahn, CDU leader and minister in Merkel's government says it is OK for Germany to leave the European Commission for Human Rights if it is slow to grasp that refugee status is about protection and also about how many asylum claims the people of a country are comfortable with. Denmark, Poland, Hungary and Austria, the UK and the US, and many Germans now feel this way and feel unease at the high levels of migration asylum, illegal and other that they face. Migration to Germany slowed but has picked up again. Failed states, economic distress, civil wars,  in Africa and Latin America have led to illegal immigration from Syria, Libya, North Africa, Arab world, Afghanistan, Central American countries and Venezuela. Is Asylum automatic? Are there decisions that have to be made in Europe and America if whole states are mismanaged or face climate distress or gang conflict leading to mass migration? These questions have to be debated and not decided by a Merkel at whim or some other leader. ...

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VW sales including Audi were up 34% in 2012. BMW sales were up 14%, and Daimler sales were up 15%. The growth rates for the German automakers surpassed growth in China. By manufacturing in the U.S. German automakers are better able to compete with the Detroit and Japanese carmakers in pricing. A third of BMW vehicles and a fourth of VW and Mercedes vehicles are now made in the U.S., according to LMC Automotive. VW has invested about $4 billion in the U.S. since 2008, including investment at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The German carmakers are now going for mass appeal with the VW Passat. Lower priced Mercedes models now sell for under $30,000. German exports to the U.S. increased by 24% in October 2012, compared to 18% for the eurozone overall. About 40% of German exports to the U.S are autos. Eurozone exports to the U.S. were up 18% in Oct 2012, and Britain's exports increased by 11%. British exports in Oct 2012 of 4 billion euros were second only to Germany at 8 billion euros....

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Public health experts warn that it is essential that countries reopening their economy have a reproduction ratio of much less than 1.0 so that the rate of increase is under control. Germany's Robert Koch Institute which advises the German government says the reproduction ratio which was 0.70 in mid April is now up to 0.96 after creeping back up. This is based on a mathematical model and extrapolated from infection numbers several weeks back.  It doesn't reflect the change by recent easing of lockdown measures starting with reopening smaller stores. This validates the careful approach adopted by France which was put forward by prime minister Edouard Philippe in his address to the National Assembly. The Assembly approved the plan 368 to 100. More legislation will back up the French government's authority to ban non essential travel between French departments and the creation of a large brigade to perform contract tracing. That involves finding testing and isolating everyone potentially infected, using dedicated locations. Detailed restrictions on travel, work and gatherings will take effect when France reopens partially on May 11.  France is also putting resources behind its testing program to test every person having coronavirus symptoms, and all they are in contact with. That means about 700,000 tests a week. Officials will generate a color coded map from this with red areas facing more restrictions than green areas. Student size is capped at 115 per class. Cafes, restaurants, movie theatres and large museums will remain closed. Gatherings of more than 10 banned. Those who can work from home asked to do so. Public transit users will be required to use masks, and marks on platforms will indicate the social distance required. Only essential travel is allowed more than 62 miles from home. These rules remain till June 2, when new ones will be set. Large music festivals and sporting events are canceled till the fall. Mr. Philippe says "these efforts will not be in vain and should allow us to arrange for a better summer season." ...

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What is the best way to reopen schools. This is being discussed in many European countries including Denmark and Germany. Cut class sizes by half. Have teachers take self adminstered tests. Hallways are one way. Stagger the breaks. Open up doors and windows for circulation- have students wear layers if needed. Students and teachers wear masks. Nothing is left purely to chance. Even with this the reproduction ratio is up to 1.13 in Germany - it must be kept close to 1.

Yet one nation of 85 million and others in Europe and Asia can show the way through a well planned and executed effort with lessons for all.

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Parents and teachers in Germany are skeptical of school reopening because of the lax rules for mostly unvaccinated children. Teachers are not required to be vaccinated and show digital certificate of vaccination as is the case in Italy. Teachers and parents see the return to normalcy not lasting long  with the relaxed rules. Britain is also following school reopening with relaxed rules going so far as to not require social distancing or masks. Health experts question this policy.

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Behaviours of young people going to beaches and bars, ignoring social distancing guidelines and not wearing masks is leading to a rise in the number of daily cases in Europe. This includes an illegal rave in a Berlin park. The incidence of coronavirus is now 19.6 per 100,000 people for persons ages 20 to 29 compared to 9.7 per 100,000 for the French population as a whole. Germany has recorded 900 new cases daily, France 1000, and Spain 2000 as a result of these youth behaviours during the last week.

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Lessons can be learned about careful reopening in fighting the coronavirus from other countries. Here the Netherlands experienced a rise of cases by 500% within two weeks of reopening after some poor decisions. The Mark Rutte government decided to open all bars and nightclubs resulting in a twelve fold surge in these locations in one week. Most of the new coronavirus cases were in people 18-29. Data from Dutch public health institute shows 4 out of 10 new cases linked to bars and nightclubs with 262% surge in cases for young people 18-24 years. This goes to show that with the vaccination drive what we see is the cases shifting to younger people, the unvaccinated, and to activities like nightlife. People going to work, or doing hybrid remote work with trips to the office, workers in factories, people doing essential shopping, are not causing the rise in cases. Much can be learned from these examples in working out reopening that does not lead to new crises with surging cases in new waves of coronavirus. Earlier in 2020 summer tourists who ignored mask and social distancing restrictions in Croatia brought on a post summer coronavirus wave to Germany and Austria. This time Greece and Portugal are introducing restrictions. Greece plans to make vaccine health pass required effective July 21 to go into restaurants. Another lesson from Netherlands this week is that a 20,000 person music event of 2 days in Utrecht where QR codes were required showing vaccination or PCR tests failed. About 1000 cases were attributed to the Utrecht event alone. Reasons given are that people faked the QR codes, or that the covid testing system produced too many false results as much as 20%. The same QR code system was followed at nightclubs resulting in big problems. One can never be sure that things work as expected and the risks are great as this adds up. Even vaccines offer limited protection and only if fully vaccinated depending on the type of vaccine. One dose of the vaccine is simply inadequate, and obesity, other morbidities can lead to problems. Withdrawing the mandatory use of face masks in most situations is also a risky decision of the Dutch government. Face masks offer the added protection at a time of variants that spread quckly, and when large parts of the population have only one dose of the vaccine, some elderly are still not vaccinated, and young people have not been vaccinated in large numbers. ...

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US president DJT outspoken in "The Conversation," with Dasha Burns in The Politico magazine about dangers of "civilizational erasure" for the Europe that people knew in the past as its population changes with uncontrolled migration of the past two decades. DJT comments on a wide range of topics centering on the migration that has changed the life and politics of Europe by 2025 and what the future holds for Europe if it does not preserve it's own identity handed down for generations. Dasha Burns starts with Ukraine- the reports say DJT said this or that about Ukraine but look at the question she put to DJT- Which country is in the stronger negotiating position? Most people know the answer in the winter of 2025 is that Russia is in a much much stronger position in 2025 and a big part of this is it's size 40 million people in Ukraine to 120 million in Russia and oil revenues. Then Burns asks if it is Zelensky who is responsible for the stalled progress what's going on here, all the time giving DJT something that he might take up that would make a headline grabbing interview. She prompts DJT with the starter phrases and pausing for DJT to pick up on it- If Zelensky rejects this deal, do you think Ukraine has lost this war, and the consensus in Europe is to keep supporting Ukraine until they can win this war. And DJT does no more than what he has said many many times about the difficult situation Ukraine is in. Asked if the US may walk away from supporting Ukraine as Trump Jr. has said, and DJT says- "No it isn't correct. But it's not exactly wrong" because they have to play ball. And that is exactly what the European states UK, France, Germany, Italy, have done as they keep talking and modify the original plan devised by Russia and the US. What this says is that the European states are not trying to win this war and at the same time not willing to let this war be lost and the principle of invading another country be seen as acceptable. This is where there are limits to DJT's diplomacy as he attributes the problem to the hatred between the leaders of the two countries. DJT does not say Zelensky would lose the election if one were held in 2026 as he calls for elections.   ...

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This report in the NYT looks at the support for the AfD stalled at about 11% nationwide but closer to twice that in East Germany where years of neglect have led to voters shifting to far right parties. The view is presented that there is a core hard right of 10%. Yet it ignores or prefers to overlook what happened in the east which provides the real clues to what happened, so that future policy could be designed to address social goals in a way that never happened in Germany. This is in line with developments in China where president Xi is addressing social goals after years of tech and infrastructure expansion that neglected rural areas and urban poor. It is in line also with the same action taken to address social goals in US president Biden's $3.5 trillion workers and families plan. Social Democrats under Mr. Scholz and a younger generation represented by the Greens have the same challenges facing them to come up with the plans to correct these problems in Germany and with a plan designed for the neglected eastern part of the country. Helmut Kohl pushed for reunification of Germany. With the collapse of the Berlin Wall the momentum was set for this to happen. Yet looking back over that period since 1990, German chancellors and administrations for three decades from both CDU and SPD have failed to invest and create opportunities in eastern part of Germany. It makes German reunification an empty concept looked at from outside. The previous administrations including Kohl and Merkel relied too much on market capitalism to do what it has been shown not capable of doing- tackling social goals and economic crises, much less  political storms such as creation of GDR following Soviet army entering Berlinin 1945. Much commentary on the issues in east Germany show people there left to themselves after mass migration out of the east to the west leaving older people and pensioners in the east, and a sense of being ignored or forgotten. US president Biden said today in ther UN General Assembly- "Our shared grief is a poignant reminder that our collective future will hinge on our ability to recognize our common humanity and to act together." And he went on to say the next ten years to 2030 "will quite literally determine our futures."  The Social Democrats under Scholz and the Greens under Baerbock and Habeck have to come up with plans and programs that will increase ease of living and opportunities for a thriving eastern part of Germany, after the failures of market capitalism in its unregulated form during the Merkel years and predecessor administrations. ...

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Vance calls for hearing different voices in Europe to be heard. The anti-migration parties and voices were excluded by the conference chair Christoph Heusgen, who advised Merkel on foreign policy, and did little to prevent the mass migration into Germany and other countries. Vance called for the all voices to be heard even those which one disagreed. He said European countries are not as brittle as they think they are that all voices could not be heard and all views debated. Vance expressed his own view that people in Europe and the US were feeling endangered  after a decade of mass migration supported by politicians and parties in Europe. These politicians had not received support for their action at the ballot box said Vance, including with Brexit and in US with the election of DJT.

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What is Antifa. during the protests this term keeps coming up, yet no one is really sure what it is.  It started in Germany in the 1920's and basically means anti-fascist or in German antifaschistisch. Most Germany parties from the SPD, CDU and the Greens to other parties accept this as a point of view considering Germany's Nazi past.  Yet DW.com asks is it only referring to all those opposed to fascism in Germany or to black clad anarchists and leftists facing police on German streets. The last such confrontation with police happened in Germany in Hamburg during the 2017 G20 summit. A famous scene from that time is pictured in DW.com. There the meaning becomes complex as the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) adopted the phrase and the disinctinve two flag logo for the 1932 election campaign, in Weimar Germany's last free election, which the Nazis could not win fully but with the left parties split emerged as winner. After the formation of the GDR, the German Democratic Republic in East Germany, the interwar KPD party veterans like Walter Ulbricht came to power in GDR. GDR became part of the Soviet bloc countries during the Cold War and used antifascist in a way that was synonymous with anticapitalism. This same movement then langusihed in the Germany of the early post war years under Cologne's former mayor, Korad Adenauer. In the 1970's and 1980's the left movement revived in Hamburg and Berlin, coalescing with a antinuclear movement and widespread protests against president Reagan's stationing of nuclear missiles on German soil aimed at the Soviet Union bloc. After the reunification the protests against coal, for climate change action, and for anti-globalization. There is even an overlap with anti-Zionism. Germany's internal intelligence agency says the antifa movement is the "main field of agitation" for autonomous leftist groups, with some groups supporting "militant actions." Yet when there are broad uncontroversial protests there can be people from all walks of life, not just the anarchist or far left groups.  So that the protests in the U.S. were met with comments of antifa - Saskia Esken of the SPD saying "58 and atifa. Obviously." To which the General Secretary of the CDU said "Against fascism, and for democracy and human rights. Without violence. Obviously, for me. It's sad that the chairwoman of the SPD lacks the strength to differentiate."  To which Esken says it is only a point of view that antifa refers to, not some action. To which the the youth organization of the Angela Merkel CDU/CSU alliance the Junge Union (founded 1947) replied: " 73 and appalled" getting the final word.  Search for a dictionary and you are left with no clear meaning either. DW.com says Germany's duden dictionary only says antifa refers to the " entirety of the movements and ideologies, which oppose fascism and national socialism."    ...

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Japan's Sanseito anti-immigration party gets 7 seats, enough to deprive the ruling LDP-Komeito alliance of its parliamentary majority. Prime Minister Ishida of the LDP party may not last more than a few months. The LDP seems to have lost its way like the Democrats in the US. A recent article in NYT says LDP wanted to bring in 60 million tourists to Japan each year to boost the economy. Yet Japanese people in cities have a hard time handling 40 million tourists in 2024, with reports of disturbance of the once quiet life in city neigborhoods and failure to adopt the culture and language of Japan. Reports of migrant/tourist or immigrant crime get much press coverage. Japan has 124 million people and birthrate of 1.26 below the birthrate of 2.1 needed to stabilize population. Business asks for new immigrants to fill unfilled positions. The public has different ideas and the migration is causing disturbance in traditional way of life in Japan. Similar to what is seen in the US and Germany in more striking ways. The nationalist parties including Sanseito say even if the population falls to 100 million this is more than the population of 90 million in Germany, and is enough to sustain its economy. Use of robotics and AI is not talked about as much but offers Japan, US and Germany, a way to make up for the loss of foreign labor. In essence both American, British, Spanish, German, French, Italian, Austrian, Dutch, Danish and Japanese society share a yearning for traditional ways of life that are being ruffled and disturbed by the migration, immigration, or over tourism affecting their countries. Politicians need to pay attention to people affected and not live isolated in their own neighborhoods from the people in other less sheltered communities and neighborhoods across their countries. ...

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Three members of Angela Merkel's political bloc, the CDU and CSU, were made to step down after taking hundreds of thousands of euros from mask manufacturing companies with business before the government. New rules for CDU and CSU for ethics are drafted in a paper, "Strengthen Trust, Follow Rules, Sanction Infractions." Members of parliament are expected to act as role models in society. The mask scandal has angered Germans frustrated with poor performance in the vaccination drive. It hurt the CDU in 2 state elections with its vote dropping to 24-28%. Now the CDU will ask all candidates to swear to uphold the ethics rules before running for office.

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Opening windows and doors to let in fresh air is as important as wearing masks and social distancing to prevent coronavirus. In places where people gather and in homes it is important to let in fresh air so that there is new fresh air circulating in rooms 3-4 times for every hour. It is being used as a strategy in schools in Germany to bring in fresh air. Putting MERV 13 type air filters in central air conditioning and heating systems is important in offices, shops and other spaces. A complete redesign of the systems that are old is needed. There are 36,000 schools in the U.S. that have old failing systems of heating and cooling. It would cost $360 billion to change these systems if each system cost $10,000 which is on the low side. This shows that good intentions are not enough, new priorities need to be set and the old priorities which misallocated funds through existing capital allocation structures in the West coasts and East coast cities no longer serve the purpose of the Renewal of America.  ...

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WSJ was first to point out the dangers of holiday hotspots in Spain, Greece and Croatia in spreading the coronavirus in Europe. One story in the WSJ showed how 21 million tourists visiting Croatia in the summer were not following the basic social distancing and mask guidelines. These tourists returning to Germany, Austria and other countries were spreading the virus after becoming infected in bars and restaurants, shops in Croatia which had not followed the basic guidelines that had been followed earlier in Croatia in April. Over the summer after months of lockdown people simply used fatigue with restrictions as a reason for going the other way and ignoring them.

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Mask use is one of the best ways along with social distancing as it reduces the load factor of the virus, reduces the deadly power of the virus. So that the illness even if it happens would not end up being severe, giving patients a chance to recover quickly. Study after study in Germany, in the U.S., in Britain is confirming this. It is also common sense considering that there is a load factor in the virus infection. The bigger the load of virus intake through the nose while breathing in other people's droplets that are then entering our body through receptors in the nose, the bigger the intake, the more severe the infection.

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Trade shows and exhibitions for different industries are limping back to life in Europe. One show for camper vans in Dusseldorf, Germany, uses a limited physical event with online and virtual contact as a way to stage a successful event. The new world is one of hybrid shows in 2021 and beyond with digital media and physical activity in the real world mixed in. Europe's cities depend on a large share of their business on fairs. Everything in trade fairs is being scaled down and new ways are being tested.

The CIbus agricultural products fair in Parma, Italy too place is a slimmed down version focussed on a conference on how to relaunch Italy's agricultural and food industries. Masks mandatory and social distancing strictly done. Two auto camper fairs are planned one in Dusseldorf this weekend and one in Parma.

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This marks the D Day celebrations for the US in World War II to be held on June 14, Saturday. The president DJT referred to this in his remarks in the White House with German chancellor Merz. It is not just Army Day but the entire war effort under FDR that won World War II under Generals Eisenhower, Marshall and Patton on the European Front against the Nazis occupation of Europe that is being celebrated. DJT again referred to it in an Oval Office meeting on June 10 on the situation in Los Angeles.  Even German chancellor Merz called it Liberation Day for Germany from the Nazis. The Weimar democracy did not survive the years of French imposed high war reparations and hyperinflation leading to the Nazis taking over. US Gen. Pershing was clear that no Armistice should be signed that the war should end with the complete defeat of the Kaiser in Germany and this would have given the US a role it lacked in a final peace settlement that allowed Germany to build a democratic process to replace Prussian militarism. ...

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About a third of recent coronavirus infections in the UK are from schoolchildren ages 10-19. The UK after a headstart in its vaccination drive has fallen behind other European countries and the US in the vaccination of children and teenagers. UK began vaccinating children in August far behind the US and Europe. On top of this UK under Boris Johnson decided to drop almost all public health restrictions during the summer. The change in Health Secretary happened on June 26, 2021 with Matt Hancock's resignation. The new Health Secretary Javid was to review the health restrictions in place till July 19. The sense of caution and preparedness that prevailed earlier as fallen short since July 2021 with the lack of coronavirus prevention measures such as masks, social distancing and vaccine mandates that were taken in Italy, France, Germany and other European countries, as well as in the US.

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This article gives some simple answers to questions about how the NHS test and Trace system setup by Baroness Harding could go so wrong. It was setup as a separate agency and ignored some of the vital information of how contact tracing should be done close to local area coming out of Germany. This information was available early and was also on the Lyrarc site, as Germany had effective contact tracing as early as March-April. First Britain wasted time waiting for some brilliant App to do the work. The when this was going nowhere the NHS Test and Trace was setup but ignored the need for this to be done locally and followed up with personal visits to the homes of those needing to be visited to isolate. Most important- the local knowledge and the persons doing the calling having human skills to get people to cooperate and feel reassured. Less important or not at all- sophisticated equipment, a simple desktop, national database to which data is connected and sourced and a desk, a skilled motivated local person the key. Germany resorted to using the underutilized state or local employees who were diverted to these tasks but extraordinarily effective.  ...

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Jens Thurau talks about the chaos in Germany during this wave of the coronavirus in DW.com, and asks who is to blame- Merkel? The deniers? German behaviour sticking to rules? Lack of digitization technology culture? 

A German man 3 days short of his 60th birthday is turned away from a vaccination center because Astra Zeneca vaccine can only be given to persons above 60 years. The man is sent away starting a heated discussion at the vaccination center whether this was the right thing to do. He is ironically sent way because he is too young. Common sense has not prevailed.

Elsewhere local rules that are set down to the streets and house numbers where masks must be worn have been written down and followed. And deniers seem to think they have gone through enough hardships, when Italy and other countries have gone through much worse. German angst, he asks?

 

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India crosses the 10 million mark in coronavirus cases for the first time on December 18, 2020. The number of deaths is at 146,000. The U.S. is the only other country with over 10 million cases. U.S. has 17 million cases and 318,000 deaths on December 18. The daily cases in India peaked in September at about 94,000 and have declined to 27,000 in December. The U.S. meanwhile is hit by a second wave that is much worse than the first. Daily cases now are close to 250,000 on December 18, 2020. The daily cases in the second wave are much more severe than the first. They have increased by a factor of 5 to 10 times. Places which got through the first wave without severe damage are hit hard in December. This includes Germany, and California. In California daily cases exceed 50,000 and in Germany 30,000. In California, France, Germany, and UK, Spain, the daily cases far exceed earlier cases in the first wave by a factor of 5 to 10 times. For this reason India needs to be wary of a resurgence in the pandemic in a second wave. With its large population, need for economic recovery, and opportunity to benefit from the vaccine developments and its strict protocols for testing, isolation and social distancing, mask wearing, India can carefully and vigilantly prepare for the second wave. ...

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German chancellor Merkel and France's president Hollande meet in Notre-Dame de Reims cathderal for a service that commemorates the 50th anniversary of a mass held at Reims cathedral. That Mass was held at Reims in May 1962 with the hope for a lasting reconciliation between Germany and France in a region affected by recurring wars, and was attended by Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle. The service in July 2012 brings together two leaders after tense discussions at eurozone summit meetings on the future of the eurozone and austerity measures. It is also a reminder of the deeper ties that bring the two countries together after a century of conflict, and the resilience in the face of difficulties shown by a previous generation of leaders in building these ties. It needs to be remembered that it was German chancellor Kohl, Angela Merkel's mentor, one of the postwar leaders who promoted European unity during the period of German reunificaton, who speeded up the agenda for the creating the eurozone and euro currency without the necessary underpinnings of deposit insurance and a eurozone financial regulator with powers to examine the books of European banks and exercize financial supervision. ...