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The US Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates in 2021-2022 to 5-5.25%. The Fed under Jerome Powell has taken a pause on interest rate increases this month but expects to make two interest rate increases of quarter percentage point to take interest rates up to 5.6% by the end of 2023. Jerome Powell has shown determination at the US central bank to control inflation that went up quickly in 2021 with supply chain disruptions and oil flow disruptions. This has led to slower US inflation with inflation down to 4% in May 2023, half of what it was at its peak in 2022. The higher interest rates help savers including retired people deprived of interest income over the last decade, and hurt borrowers making higher payments on mortgage and car loans.

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Bill Gates of Microsoft calls the Biden climate change bill the single most important legislation in US history. He says only America can offer the vision for climate change action, and make it happen. Gates says he has talked to corporate leaders in America and most of them say they are ready to act once the climate change bill is passed. Many of the industries that need to be created are in the early stages and the climate change bill will create the right atmosphere for sustained innovation.

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A small rise in interest rates of 1% can add about $7 billion to revenues for Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and JP Morgan Chase banks, according to estimates cited in WSJ. This is because short term loans which predominate today can reprice quickly for banks and rates for depositors at banks do not change much. This is a more reliable source of revenue and one on which the banks have depended for much of the past 100 years. The use of complex instruments and shady instruments such as the mortgages devised in the 2009 mortgage financial crisis did little for banks and instead caused a major financial crisis in the shape of economic depression with income and job losses for families and workers in the US and in the rest of the world. Complexity meant less transparency in this context, more chances of messing up finances, and bad news for America and the world.

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See pictures and video of the 150h anniversary celebrations in the US for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. The Declaration has the immortal words of Jefferson- "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,—That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security." Not just Washington DC and many places in the US, but also the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin and across Europe and Asia, Latin America the Declaration has created the Modern World and the Democracies that we know today. The list is long from Germany and Japan that adopted these ideas to India and many nations of Asia, many nations in Africa and Latin America, all inspired by Thomas Jefferson's words. As Jefferson himself borrowed from the European writers of the Enlightenment this means it is a European experiment also, and in Asia an Indian, Japanese experiment also- futuristic in every way, daring and bold, and with the People in mind all the way. Every generation bearing a special responsibility to its children the next generation so that these values can continue to serve as a blessing to mankind. People tend to criticize the founders for aspirational views yet it should be remembered that in all of Asia, billions of people saw a lot to learn and a lot to gain from these aspirational views as they built the Modern World in the 1950's across Asia on these principles and ideas. This is also true of Latin America and Africa. The men on Mount Rushmore were truly unique, Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and Roosevelt, and it is our task to continue the work they gave most of their life for. ...

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DJT calls for 10% cap on credit card interest for affordability crisis for US families. Most of the credit card companies in the US base these operations in places without usury laws such as Nevada, and charge exorbitant rates on credit cards, a practice that is going on for 6 decades since the 1960's. It makes it harder for families to get out of poverty and living from paycheck to paycheck. It is another aspect of the affordability crisis. Democrats have never raised this up for action. “Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more,” the president says he wants the cap to start Jan. 20, 2026 If this happens it will be a big win for the American people and end a decades long usury type business in credit cards that violates the idea on which the US was founded of opportunity for all and access to credit as critical in making this happen. Interest rates of 30% are a way to reduce social mobility in the way a feudal order once did in the years before the Modern World and the Scientific Revolution. A society without social mobility is one in decline can be seen in the way Spain went into decline after 1700 and Britain emerged to lead the Modern World and the Industrial Revolution. This is the crisis America faces today- change or cede leadership to China or some other nation. It is about this not the capitalist system or other system as many like to portray it, and Adam Smith was all about growth and social mobility that were part of his system which today is sadly forgotten, yet needs to be bravely put forward. ...

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The Fed votes 9-3 to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by quarter percentage point to between 3.5 and 3.75% in December 2025. US president DJT is pushing the Fed to cut rates as tariff policies are being implemented to cushion the economy as it adjusts to tariffs.

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"Turnoff your phone for a bit. I take time early in the day for reflection, for when hard things come."

Melinda Gates likes the following poets, who are also Colbert's favorites. Mary Oliver, John O'Donohue who brings ancient wisdom to modern day lives, imagination as the path of the Spirit.

She reads David White, Pablo Neruda, Mia

One verse of poetry she likes says- when you come back to yourself, something Melinda Gates has done, when you do this see the flowers that were in your earlier years. This is all about having self care, self compassion and self acceptance, that are key to healthy living. As the Buddha says- only by taking care of yourself can you take care of others.

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Interview with Bill Gates on the Gates foundation's educational activities and his thoughts on the budget cuts in education. The Gates Foundation launches an effort to improve education in selected school districts- Memphis, Tennessee, Hillsborough, Florida, Pittsburgh, and a charter consortium in California. The foundation has awarded $290 million for this effort to improve teacher effectiveness and set up new personnel systems. The idea is to raise the average level of quality in these schools through teacher effectiveness using a system designed by the foundation. Gates sees the need for more targeted investment in schools and close cooperation with teachers, principals, superintendents and administrative people. For this reason he sees the current budget atmosphere as counterproductive, as it will cut spending on education and act as a distraction from the hard work that needs to get done. On education spending Gates points out that one has to be careful as a society not to neglect the young as one uses resources to support the elderly. He points out that the only way to get this whole thing to work is for some increases in taxes and putting a lid on increases in medical costs, so that education in America does not get shortchanged. Recent polls show preference for some increase in taxes when it comes to supporting education spending....

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Powell needs agreement of others on Fed Board to set US interest rates August 2025. There is now a divergence of opinion with some Fed members looking to lower interest rates in coming months to aid the US economy as it resets the terms of world trade for a level playing field for all, something that had not happened by the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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The Bank of England increases interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.25%. Inflation increased to 10.4% up from 10.1% the month before.

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Auto loan interest rates hit a high of 8.5% by Jan 2023. Credit Unions that offer lower rates have increased their share of auto loans to 28%.

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The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted 7 to 3 to continue a policy of keeping the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels "at least through mid-2013." Presidents of the Federal Reserve regional banks- Fisher of Dallas, Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, and Plosser of Philadelphia preferred different language that would only say exceptionally low rates for "for an extended period."

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The European Central Bank follows the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates. The ECB raised rates by half a percentage point. The Fed earlier raised rates by three quarters of a percentage point. The effort is to tackle inflation before it takes root in US and Europe.

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The role of perfluorocarbons in making aluminium in China. Most of these potent gases come from aluminium production in western china, in the less populated industrial zones of western China. China produces the most aluminium in the world. Over a decade these gases have nearly doubled.

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The Fed's Jerome Powell makes a half percentage point rate cut that takes the federal funds rate to between 4.75% and 5.00%.  11 of 12 Fed governors supported the decision for a half percentage point rate cut.

Powell said:

"We are committed to maintaining our economy’s strength. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained.”

This is the US central bank's, the Fed's response to high cost of living concerns in the US. It provides relief to households with credit card balances, and business with variable rate debt. Rates for corporate debt and mortgages had started declining in anticipation of rate cuts.

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This graphic shows the increase of interest rates by central banks around the world to cope with inflation and risks to the economy. Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Russia, Egypt, Argentina have large increase in rates. The US increased rates by 0.75% this week.

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The US Federal's half percentage point interest rate cut bodes well for stocks and bonds in the US, says this report in WSJ, as it reduces the burden of interest rates on small business that has a part of its debt in floating rates. The default risk component of rates also shrinks for large and small companies. A lot depends on how much the US is investing in manufacturing, in chips and science, in education, in infrastructure that reduces the costs to business and in its industries, which is the ultimate driver of growth. In this sense the Biden administration and Jerome Powell's Fed have accomplished a remarkable deal in the difficult period of the pandemic's four years 2020-2024. Much remains to be done yet this is a big deal, and the next president can leverage these strengths to set the US on the right path, the Way Forward for America.

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A new central bank governor Hafize Erkan, increases interest rates from 8.5% to 16% in June 2023 to tackle inflation of about 40%.

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The US death rates were 15% above normal compared to other European countries at 9-12% above normal for the pandemic. The US deaths exceed 1 million in 2020 and 2021. India's death rate was about 26% above normal, Brazil's 24% above normal compared to 41% for Mexico, even though Brazil made the most headlines. Uneven vaccination in states in the northern and southern US led to the high US death rate and 1 million deaths.

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The European central bank increases interest rates by quarter percentage point taking the deposit rate to 3.5%. The US Fed held off on increases. The US Fed started early with its increase in interest rates and maintained a steady posture with 8 interest rate increases over 2022-2023 in a period of just over 12 months. It has strengthened the dollar against the euro. The slow response of the ECB and price gouging in Europe has worsened the inflation picture there. The US Fed's policy combined with consumers resisting price gouging by halting purchases from stores, untangling of supply chains, the Biden administration's series of actions to tackle the cost of living increases, and overall investment in the economy that keeps employment resilient including government investment for the first time, is creating a better economy for America than most of the last two decades. 

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As the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, pushes up interest rates in a period of high inflation its goal is to raise rates to "neutral" a rate which neither spurs growth or slows it, says this report in the WSJ. Only problem is that no one really knows what that interest rate is. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point at its meeting in May. And raise interest rates by another half point in June. Fed chairman Jerome Powell says of the policy "we are going to be raising rates and getting expeditiously to levels that are more neutral."

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WSJ offers ideas on retirement investing when faced with very low interest rates as in U.S. and Europe.

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According to a senior defense industry official Defense Secretary Robert Gates worries that counterinsurgency may not work in Afghanistan. According to the official even 40,000 troops would not give enough troop on the ground to protect the Afghns if the north and west continue to deteriorate. Gates is concerned about sending large amounts of additional US troops to Afghnistan. This is acountry with people very sensitive to occupying powers. A veteran of the soviet intervention there says they have an allergy to foreigners and attributes the soviet defeat to this. See the links in Intelilinks He is aware of the the dangers of this, if the expanded military footprint is seen as that of an occupying power especially when the government in Kabul is hugely unpopular, then this would galvanize new armed opposition to the US and draw US forces and NATO forces into aguerilla war of the type the soviet union faced there. It may do much worse if it galvanizes opposition in side Pakistan. The question Obama is focussing on is whether there is athreat to the US homeland security if other options than expanding troop strength are explored....