LyrArc Article Gist
Britain staged a rehearsal for a pandemic called Cygnus in 2016. Till that time the preparations for a pandemic that started years earlier during the SARS crisis were conducted vigorously. Yet the by this time Britain was becoming immersed in the Brexit struggles in the ruling Conservative Party. Prime minister Cameron resigned on July 13, 2016  and was replaced by Theresa May. From that time on the struggles with pro Brexit factions led by Boris Johnson consumed the COnservative Party and sucked the life out of the pandemic planning that Britain had conducted for years before. The recommendations to correct deficiencies from the pandemic rehearsal exercize were ignored. The second failure happened as the crisis approached. Again the Brexit date of January 31 intervened and the months long struggle to get Brexit had taken so much energy and tired out most of the British public including new prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party Boris Johnson. Johnson did not attend the first Cobra meeting of the highest level ministers and military, convened on January 25, 2020, as reported in the Times. Such meeting are convened only for a national threat. Only 5 weeks later on March 2 did the prime minister attend a Cobra meeting. During this time the situation was grave in Italy with rising cases and infections. The entire process was conducted during this time by the Health minister Mr. Hancock who had assured the public that the situation was under control. Britain now has the highest number of infections in Europe exceeding that in Italy- at 240,000 on May 15, 2020. The prime minister and his adviser Mr. Cummings, were also infected by the virus, and Mr. Johnson spent time in ICU before recovering. Queen Elizabeth addressed the nation on Easter day, the first such address since 1940, to boost Briain's spirits. Never had Britain been less prepared as in 2020 when earlier preparations were ditched for austerity plans and events such as Brexit fatigue conspired to strip the nation of the crucial 5-6 weeks of preparation since the first January 25 Cobra meeting of the highest people in government.  Never had such preparation even for 6 weeks been more crucial than in February and March as the infectivity ratio was determined by infectious disease specialists at the best British universities and scientific institutions to be between 2.6 and 3.4 compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which was somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. This means every one person infects another 3 persons, compared to about 1 person in a regular flu season. This reproduction ratio and the nature of coronavirus remain a threat today as Britain, Europe, the U.S. and the world reopens.  As reported in the Times the infectivity ratio was also the reason for the mindset that refused to believe that the virus was real because at 3.0 infectivity the only way to tackle it was a "lockdown," and this was itself an "apocalypse" scenario for many in the pro-Brexit Conservative party that won the election, which badly wanted to get back to economic activity after Brexit. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Macron's unpopularity extends to a plan for new stained glass windows at Notre Dame. Strangely enough the unpopularity of Macron comes from an imperious perceived as arrogant attitude that was also the reason of the undoing of his predecessor Nicholas Sarkozy. Is there something about the concentration of power in the French presidential palace Elysee that leads to such behaviors.

This doesn't help France or Europe in 2025-2026 with France changing prime ministers every few months, just as Britain did in 2023-2034 this time with the Brexit ideas and attitudes of indifference even snubbing behaviors towards the European Union. 

LyrArc Article Gist
It is the Tories (Conservatives) party that made immigration an issue for the last decade. It was immigration that was one of the main issues keeping the Tories in power for the last decade. It is a surprise then that the Tories have a dismal failure in restricting immigration by 2024, going into the 2024 general election and expecting large losses of seats in parliament. It also means Tories have taken Britain out of the European Union on an issue such as immigration, heedless of the negative effects on the British economy and growth after misrepresenting it. Boris Johnson made the remark on July 2, 2019 that after Brexit "we will still have whey for our Mar's bars," as if Britain could go on as before. Worse the Tories under Johnson/Sunak misrepresented issues such as immigration in their advertising for Brexit. It is the story of how a small minority were able to misrepresent issues for staying in power regardless of the consequences. Today most Britons support rejoining the European Union. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The British pound was trading at $1.50 just before voting to leave the EU in June 2016. Since then years of wrangling on Brexit led to uncertainty and the pound dropping to $1.22. The decisive win of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in 2019 led to removing much of the uncertainty, and the British pound recovered to $1.34 on prediction of Johnson's win. The big win makes it certain that Britain can leave the EU by Jan 31st 2020.

LyrArc Article Gist
The worst fears of Brexit of young people, three quarters of whom in 18-24 year age group voted against Brexit, are being realized. There is less travel to Europe and it is harder to have cross border interaction between Britain and the European Union with additional documentation required. A cross party report by the House of Lords shows the impact on mobility for young people. The restrictions are seen in the report as "an unmitigated disaster" citing experts. The pathway to temporary professional employment was once a way to broaden experience and contacts in the early years of working life. This is now far more difficult to access says this report in The Guardian. The same is true for school trips- in 2022 the number of pupils on such trips from EU to UK dropped 83%. Conservatives have shown a complete indifference to this. 

LyrArc Article Gist
A government motion to delay Brexit for at least 3 months passed the House of Commons by 412 votes to 202. The large majority voting for an extension shows overwhelming support across all parties for more time to resolve the issue of European Union membership. Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a second Brexit referendum, saying the call was for "a public vote, not as political point scoring but as a realistic option to break the deadlock." If there is no agreement by June 30, a longer extension of 12 months could follow. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Half of the 17 percentage points of lower investment in Britain between 2016 and 2023 came from administrative barriers with EU and of Brexit. Britain had deindustrialized and hoped to get growth from so called "clever industries" such as finance, media, and higher education. The Tories party led by Johnson and then Sunak painted a rosy picture for Britain leaving the European Union and doing better without it by working with China and the US and connecting to global supply chains. They ignored the actual facts of the globalization cycle reversing itself leaving Britain exposed in the storm.The slump in investment from Brexit hit Britain hard, the Ukraine war meant higher prices for energy imports from Norway and the US. The result is that only about half percentage point of 2 percent cumulative GDP growth in Britain between 4th qtr 2019 and 4th qtr 2023 came from jobs growth compared to about 3.75% in the EU economies. Eurozone growth at 4% was twice that in UK, and the US with higher productivity and job growth was growing at four times that in UK and twice that in EU at 8% over this period. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
UK prime minister Sunak makes changes to policies of the UK post-Brexit that bring the UK closer to France and the European Union. This follows a deterioration of Britain's relations with the EU and France under Boris Johnson during the years Brexit happened. Sunak also comes up with a different policy for Northern Ireland closer to the EU's position. Mark Landler has covered Britain and the EU for NYT over three decades. He calls Boris Johnson's approach bombastic and one that made loud claims for "Global Britain" with little to show in results.

Sunak's challenges are in Britain with strikes across transportation, health sector and NHS, and the cost of living crisis. Labour party is seen as having better solutions and as more caring in its policies for both the environment, workers and families in 2023.

LyrArc Article Gist
The main sticking point  in Brexit talks in December 2020 is the demand led by France to impose "lightning" unilateral tariffs on UK exports if the U.S. is seen as violating existing European Union social, environmental or state subsidy rules. UK is seeking a dispute resolution procedure and redress measures based on the actual damage or extent of the violation.

The other issue is fishing with the EU asking for a 10 year period of transition for fishing in British waters followed by only 18% of the gains to EU being paid back to Britain.

LyrArc Article Gist
The EU has agreed to allow a new Brexit extension, this time till January 31, 2020. According to the paper agreed on by member states the UK can leave on the first day of the month that a deal is ratified if a deal is ratified in parliament before the new extension date. The EU has also put in a declaration attached to the agreement that it will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. EU leaders did not have to meet to do this as it was done by a written procedure used by EU council president Donald Tusk.

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Gove heads the XO (exit operations) group for no deal planning on Brexit. This group met twice in one week and the planning is being done by ministers for no deal.  There is growing sentiment in the government that with the EU not budging, trading on World Trade Organization terms after January 1, 2021 is the only or best option for Britain. Britain would simply walk away from the unproductive talks.

LyrArc Article Gist
EU foreign policy is process driven and requires the agreement of 27 countries in the EU, which is called the coalition of the unwilling. British foreign policy is ideologically driven. After the Brexit deal was reached in the last week of December 2020, no mention was made of coordination in foreign policy. The Boris Johnson government has quietly dropped the whole idea of cooperation with the EU in foreign affairs that the government of Theresa May supported. May supported deep cooperation between Britain and the Eu at the Munich security conference in 2018.  Today most cooperation is absent and Britain sees itself freed from the constraint of coordinating its foreign policy. Britain is now free to act independently in foreign policy they very reason for Brexit. It means Britain will negotiate its own relationships with other countries based on what is good for  Britain. British euroskeptics were always critical of the French way of saying France would act independently in making foreign policy and at the same time saying it was working within the EU. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Prime minister Theresa May of Britain announces her plan to spend an additional 20 billion pounds a year on the National Health Service. Over five years the commitment is for an additional 70 billion pounds. By 2023 this will bring the UK to the point where it is spending the same proportion on health care as France. This also fulfills a promise made by the pro Brexit campaign. May says some of this would come from higher taxes, and 9 billion pounds that the UK contributes to the European Union each year would go to pay for the additional funds to the NHS. The 2017 British election with Labor winning 40% of the vote has affirmed the shift in public sentiment to greater commitment of funds for health and education. Poorer communities in Britain that were left behind tended to vote for Brexit, with a large gap widening between London and the rest of the country. Higher commitment to NHS is part of the shift in perception that the needs of health, education and underserved communities are the new priorities. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
One of the goals of the Northern Ireland deal is closer relations between the EU and Britain putting to rest the tensions from Brexit. The EU sees Sunak as a good faith negotiator and made concessions on the application of EU laws for Northern Ireland. In Britain 60% of people now say in opinion surveys that they see the 2016 vote to leave the European Union as a mistake. A genuine relationship with the EU will happen only after a change in power from the Conservatives to the Labour party in the January 2025 election, says Mark Landler in the NYT.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Conservative MP crosses over to the Opposition in parliament causing Mr. Johnson's government to lose its one vote majority in Britain's parliament. As a minority government its future is uncertain. Johnson called for a snap election which will require a two thirds majority in parliament and is unlikely if called by the minority  government. With 31 Conservative rebel MP's led by Mr. Hammond former finance minister, and Labour MP's, Scottish National Party MP's, the Opposition is planning legislation to delay Brexit till January 2020. This is likely to happen now that it has a majority. The next step- the Opposition unites behind Mr. Corbyn to form a government or in the event of that not happening a general election is called.  Even though there is support for Brexit in the country it is not known whether the mood of the country has changed in the years since the referendum with the debacle in the Conservative Party. The Conservatives are badly divided, and the entry of  Mr. Cummings running Mr. Boris Johnson's government  election campaign has distanced the party from Mr. Farage's UK Independence Party, Conservative moderates. All these factors could lead to a change in government. The general election is also likely to be fought on terms other than just Brexit- with the future of the country, and a change of direction, becoming the challenge facing Britain, as the damage done by divisive politics and the precarious economy, living standards, begins to be better understood. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Trans Pacific Trade Agreement TPP adds so liitle, only 0.04% to Britain's GDP in 15 year from 2023, says the Office of Budget responsibility in Britain. It is this trade agreement ignoring American workers that Mr. Obama and Hillary Clinton pushed for leading to the Democrats defeat in the 2016 election. Most of the trade deals including ones with Canada and Australia add up to no more than 1% to Britain's GDP when the loss of the EU through Brexit means a loss of 4% of GDP for Britain. This is how much the trade deals were over hyped by the Brexiters Johnson and Sunak.

LyrArc Article Gist
Increased maritime and defense cooperation as Dominic Raab, UK Foreign Secretary visits India and has talks with Jaishankar, India's External Affairs minister. For the UK there is no stronger partner than India looking east, says Raab. India, UK and Australia form a core of the British Commonwealth of nations, an idea that brings together the English speaking world in Asia and Africa. After Brexit Britain is free to form its own relationships based on its history, and links of culture and language. Boris Johnson will visit India in January 2021.

LyrArc Article Gist
A threefold increase in immigration to meet staff and labour shortages makes using immigration as an issue in the next election risky for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives in Britain. In a strange twist it is the Conservatives under Boris Johnson who campaigned on immigration  to take Britain out of the EU now having a record on immigration of this kind. In 2019 Sunak battlecry " get Brexit done" was for lower immigration from a level of 245,000 that year. In 2022 it was a net migration of 720,000 for Britain. Most of this has come from student, work and family visa routes, and legal asylum channels from Ukraine Hong Kong and Afghanistan. Now economists believe it is a result of shortages of labour and staff, and high domestic wages.

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's economy minister, Mr. Seko, says that with no-deal Brexit Britain will lose access to Japan's new economic partnership agreement with the European Union which last month created the world's largest free trade zone. Seko said 1000 Japanese companies have invested in the UK creating 150,000 jobs, because it served as "a gateway to the European market."

Nissan is scaling back its Sunderland factory. Sony and Panasonic are relocating their EU headquarters to Amsterdam. Honda will close its Swindon plant in 2021. Seko said "uncertainty for the consequences of Brexit is spreading in Japanese industry."

LyrArc Article Gist
Who should lead the Conservative Party in 2016 till the next elections in 2020? The Economist magazine says strong negotiating skills and stamina are needed, and on this point it says Theresa May, Home Secretary, does better than former Energy minister, Andrea Leadsom, who has not done such tough negotiating and is not so well known as May. May had the support of 199 members of parliament to 84 for Leadsom, whose experience is less and was junior Treasury minister in prior position compared to May's 6 years in the position of Home Secretary handling immigration issues. Being an ardent Brexiter Leadsom has an advantage with Brexit supporters, though May handled her Brexit Remain position in a low key way and can appeal to both sides of the Conservative party. The result will come from a postal ballot to 150,000 members of the Conservative Party.

LyrArc Article Gist
France and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights in UK waters. UK will now have 4 Navy patrol ships protect its fishing waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. French and other EU fishermen get 60% of the fish taken from UK waters. UK exclusive economic zone extends 200 miles from the shore. Conservative ministers have doubled the total fleet of patrol ships from four to eight. During patrol in extreme cases a EU boat can be impounded and taken to the nearest EU port, otherwise it could be boarded and inspected.

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain turns to Labour as the lead for Labour party increases to 27 points after Sunak announces the general election will be held on July 4, 2024. What would a Starmer administration look like and how will it meet the expectations of Britain for generational change after the failure of Brexit, and 14 years of austerity policies that failed to invest in Britain and failed to deliver on infrastructure and housing? These are questions not easily answered as Britain's finances are left in a bad state by the Tories for Labour. Starmer is taking the right approach to first get a grasp of the tremendous challenges facing Labour in this situation. It was easy for Boris Johnson and the Tories to make the promises that were never kept and left the British people in the lurch.

LyrArc Article Gist
The pound falls in value to $1.30 as Mr. Boris Johnson rejects the requirement stated by Mr. Macron of France that Britain must follow EU rules. Mr. Johnson says Britain  will choose sovereignty over anything else, creating the possibility of a hard Brexit. He says the UK should not be expected to follow EU rules, anymore than the EU should be expected to follow UK rules. Business leaders hope these are opening statements only. 

Mr. Johnson want a Canada style agreement or failing this an Australia style agreement, and failing this he would stay with the existing Withdrawal Agreement with the EU he negotiated earlier. The UK wants to complete negotiations for a deal by December 31, 2020.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Trump told Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the White House he is disappointed with the way Brexit has evolved in the three years since he supported Brexit during the election campaign. Trump said "it is tearing the country apart. Its actually tearing a lot of countries apart."  After a series of votes in the British parliament Trump told reporters he gave May some negotiating advice. "I gave the prime minister my ideas on how to negotiate. I think she would have been successful., she did'nt listen to that." So what happened? What advice did Trump give on negotiating? There are only some hints on this. Theresa May told the BBC in an interview after Trump's visit to London in July 2018- "He told me I should sue the E.U. -not go into negotiations., Sue them."  Trump made a prediction a day after the referendum to Leave saying "the E.U. is going to break up." This was at the time of the financial crisis in the European Union with problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Since then the economies of these countries revived. Spain has 3% growth for three years even though it faces fresh elections. In his 2000 book "The America we Deserve" Trump pointed out his sense threat the U.S. should pull back from the E.U and save millions of dollars annually. In recent years he has suggested that the E.U was "a foe"  and "it was formed as a consortium so that it could compete with the United States." The problems in Europe happened in the period 2016-2018 with divisions emerging on the issue of immigration. This wave of immigration was a result of Arab and African conflicts and lag in Africa between development and the rapidly rising population. Chancellor Merkel was ill prepared to handle this wave of immigration and in retrospect her policy did little to address the roots of the problems of immigration from North Africa, a policy later adopted when popular support for immigration of this kind and scale declined. It affected the vote for Brexit playing into deep seated doubts about the benefits of EU membership in parts of Britain.  Mr. Trump supports no-deal Brexit which was defeated by large margins in the British parliament and lacks support across all parts of society, business and political parties in Britain. Trump own sense that Brexit has divided many countries and his dialogue with the Irish prime minister must show an awareness of the views of Ireland about the hard won peace and E.U. borders in Ireland.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This in depth report in The Times reveals that after Brexit talks between Lord Frost and Michael Barnier were getting nowhere on December 3 and the EU had increased its demands, Boris Johnson came up with the idea of a direct call between Johnson and Macron of France and Merkel of Germany, with the EU Commission president Leyen present. This was rejected after Macron spoke to Merkel and both decided they should stay united in their demands that Britain agree not to relax environmental or other rules to gain unfair competitive advantage after leaving the EU. The decision by France and Germany not to talk directly with Britain had been made. Leyen at the EU headquarters in Brussels was to convey the decision. Leyen offered to meet Johnson for a dinner discussion in Brussels. Johnson hesitated. He finally accepted knowing that this would show he had done everything possible and would have the support of all his ministers including ones that supported Remaining in the EU. The whole world thought that the EU was making a genuine last effort to get agreement, but this was not the case. During the dinner meeting Leyen just listened and listened, not saying much, as the EU strategy was to convey to the British that it was serious and not going to budge. This is where the situation is today on December 12, 2020. Cabinet ministers say the chances of any agreement before December 31, 2020, the date Britain leaves are just 30%, some even say 20%. Both sides are ratcheting up the pressure. The British have taken steps to increase patrol ships to 4 and the total fleet to 8 ships to patrol its Economic Zone in British waters looking for EU, mostly French fishermen. Britain would keep the French from fishing in its waters.   ...