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A threefold increase in immigration to meet staff and labour shortages makes using immigration as an issue in the next election risky for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives in Britain. In a strange twist it is the Conservatives under Boris Johnson who campaigned on immigration  to take Britain out of the EU now having a record on immigration of this kind. In 2019 Sunak battlecry " get Brexit done" was for lower immigration from a level of 245,000 that year. In 2022 it was a net migration of 720,000 for Britain. Most of this has come from student, work and family visa routes, and legal asylum channels from Ukraine Hong Kong and Afghanistan. Now economists believe it is a result of shortages of labour and staff, and high domestic wages.

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Increased maritime and defense cooperation as Dominic Raab, UK Foreign Secretary visits India and has talks with Jaishankar, India's External Affairs minister. For the UK there is no stronger partner than India looking east, says Raab. India, UK and Australia form a core of the British Commonwealth of nations, an idea that brings together the English speaking world in Asia and Africa. After Brexit Britain is free to form its own relationships based on its history, and links of culture and language. Boris Johnson will visit India in January 2021.

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Britain's parliament voted 358 in favor and 234 against to back prime minister Boris Johnson in his effort to get Britain to leave the European Union by January 31, 2020. Negotiation will not be extended beyond 2020. With a comfortable 80 seat majority and many lawmakers newly elected in parliament in favor of Brexit the process appeared easy compared to the problems faced by Theresa May who lacked a majority. In October Mr. Johnson negotiated a deal with the EU which stated how Britain plans to leave the EU. This covered citizens' rights, a financial settlement to leave, and an arrangement to avoid a physical border in Ireland. With another vote in parliament and passage in the House of Lords the process now appears certain to be completed before January end 2020. To get Brexit done Mr. Johnson sought blue collar support in the north of England and the Midlands, a region neglected by Labour and the old Conservatives. Too much of the focus had remained on London. This strategy worked after neglect of working class districts by Labour under Blair and Brown. Mr. Johnson's approach was to commit the Conservatives to new infrastructure spending, spending on schools and the NHS, just as Mr. Trump had done in the U.S. to permanently change the Republican party. This combined with an appeal to patriotism and the idea of Britain drew strong support across England in the election. ...

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The Tories are seen shifting their position from working with the unions during the pandemic and Boris Johnson's position that there would be no return to the period of "low wages, low skills, and low productivity," in this analysis in The Guardian. Faced with risks of higher inflation in Britain the conservatives have shifted to supporting no more than a 3% wage increase for rail workers in the face of 8% increase in inflation in Britain in 2022. Rail airline, other workers,, and the government now are on opposite sides on wages after joining together during the pandemic. Shortages of workers have pushed up wages in some sectors but others are lagging behind including transport workers, leading to the rail strike and other strikes of public sector workers.

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With the departure and replacement of Dan Cummings, the prime minister gets someone with extensive financial and other experience to replace his free wheeling adviser who lacked experience. Dan Rosenfield who worked at Treasury till 2016 under both Labor and Conservative party chancellors is the new choice for prime minister Boris Johnson's chief of staff at 10 Downing Street. Experts say less games, more interest in what matters in managing the costs of covid budgets. Here Mr. Rosenfield is described as the person at Treasury who put together the Olympics budget that came out at a little over 9 billion pounds after little preparation was done and Britain won the bid for the Olympics by bidding only 2.3 billion pounds. As Rosenfield puts it, there wasn't even a cats in hell chance of doing the Olympics at that cost, and the only option was to control costs as aggressively as we could. Britain now faces the task of keeping Covid budget costs manageable and getting a recovery in place in 2021-2022. ...

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The pound falls in value to $1.30 as Mr. Boris Johnson rejects the requirement stated by Mr. Macron of France that Britain must follow EU rules. Mr. Johnson says Britain  will choose sovereignty over anything else, creating the possibility of a hard Brexit. He says the UK should not be expected to follow EU rules, anymore than the EU should be expected to follow UK rules. Business leaders hope these are opening statements only. 

Mr. Johnson want a Canada style agreement or failing this an Australia style agreement, and failing this he would stay with the existing Withdrawal Agreement with the EU he negotiated earlier. The UK wants to complete negotiations for a deal by December 31, 2020.

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The Conservatives get a big boost from the 2021 budget. This budget increased the corporate tax to 25% by 2023 from 20% under previous Conservative governments of Cameron, and 19% under May. A survey by YouGov shows 55% of the British public thinks this budget is "fair," only 16% saying it is "unfair." This is the highest rating for any British budget since 2009. For Boris Johnson's Conservatives this means a 4% increase in popularity just in the last week up to 45% and Labour under Keith Starmer dropping 4% to 32%. This has opened a 13 point lead for the Conservatives likely to show up in the local elections coming up. This Conservative lead is higher than the 44% vote share for Boris Johnson's Conservatives in the general election.

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This in depth report in The Times reveals that after Brexit talks between Lord Frost and Michael Barnier were getting nowhere on December 3 and the EU had increased its demands, Boris Johnson came up with the idea of a direct call between Johnson and Macron of France and Merkel of Germany, with the EU Commission president Leyen present. This was rejected after Macron spoke to Merkel and both decided they should stay united in their demands that Britain agree not to relax environmental or other rules to gain unfair competitive advantage after leaving the EU. The decision by France and Germany not to talk directly with Britain had been made. Leyen at the EU headquarters in Brussels was to convey the decision. Leyen offered to meet Johnson for a dinner discussion in Brussels. Johnson hesitated. He finally accepted knowing that this would show he had done everything possible and would have the support of all his ministers including ones that supported Remaining in the EU. The whole world thought that the EU was making a genuine last effort to get agreement, but this was not the case. During the dinner meeting Leyen just listened and listened, not saying much, as the EU strategy was to convey to the British that it was serious and not going to budge. This is where the situation is today on December 12, 2020. Cabinet ministers say the chances of any agreement before December 31, 2020, the date Britain leaves are just 30%, some even say 20%. Both sides are ratcheting up the pressure. The British have taken steps to increase patrol ships to 4 and the total fleet to 8 ships to patrol its Economic Zone in British waters looking for EU, mostly French fishermen. Britain would keep the French from fishing in its waters.   ...

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India UK trade has been neglected over the years. In 2021 India accounts for less than 2% of total UK trade. During the period before the pandemic 2010 to 2019 UK exports declined by 3%. During that time the US increased exports to India by 79%, Canada by 62%, and France by 58%, says this report in The Guardian. This happened even though India is the leading country in the British Commonwealth and one would expect much stronger trade ties. This is one reason UK prime minister Boris Johnson is putting a high priority on building up trade with India during his visit to India. UK Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan seeks to double the current 22 billion pounds trade between India and the UK by 2030.

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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Britain turns to Labour as the lead for Labour party increases to 27 points after Sunak announces the general election will be held on July 4, 2024. What would a Starmer administration look like and how will it meet the expectations of Britain for generational change after the failure of Brexit, and 14 years of austerity policies that failed to invest in Britain and failed to deliver on infrastructure and housing? These are questions not easily answered as Britain's finances are left in a bad state by the Tories for Labour. Starmer is taking the right approach to first get a grasp of the tremendous challenges facing Labour in this situation. It was easy for Boris Johnson and the Tories to make the promises that were never kept and left the British people in the lurch.

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This In Depth view in The Times of the 2021 Conservative party conference in Manchester, says Boris Johnson was his old ebullient self in his conference speech rallying Tories. He is seen as not having a full grasp of the situation as schools reopen without covid precautions in place, overconfident about controlling the pandemic. He is also viewed as ignoring the impact this winter of higher gas prices, lack of enough labor for essential services, inflation and shortages of essential goods, on the British public. The general mood of the Tory conference appeared to be celebrating the Tory performance without preparing for unanticipated obstacles ahead for the British economy and for all sections of British society hit hard by the pandemic.

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About a third of recent coronavirus infections in the UK are from schoolchildren ages 10-19. The UK after a headstart in its vaccination drive has fallen behind other European countries and the US in the vaccination of children and teenagers. UK began vaccinating children in August far behind the US and Europe. On top of this UK under Boris Johnson decided to drop almost all public health restrictions during the summer. The change in Health Secretary happened on June 26, 2021 with Matt Hancock's resignation. The new Health Secretary Javid was to review the health restrictions in place till July 19. The sense of caution and preparedness that prevailed earlier as fallen short since July 2021 with the lack of coronavirus prevention measures such as masks, social distancing and vaccine mandates that were taken in Italy, France, Germany and other European countries, as well as in the US.

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UK's Keir Starmer makes 6 pledges to the British people- "Living standards should rise so that growth was felt by everyone, everywhere." Real household disposable income per person, GDP per capita by 2029. Build 1.5 million new homes in 5 years and fast track 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects. 92% of patients have to wait no more than 18 weeks for routine operations and appointments by March 2029. 29,000 officers for neighborhood policing and stopping anti-social behavior-1 for every 8000 people. 95% of low carbon electricity generation by 2030. 5% gas generation kept in reserve for unanticipated situations. It is Boris Johnson's target from 2022 in contrast to DJT's reverting to oil and gas to 2027 with industry following its continued but slower shift to gas and wind/solar. A pledge on living standards as the goal not growth is what Starmer sees as the dire need today. Growth that would put the UK ahead of all countries in the G7 is put aside for raising living standards for ALL the British people. A recognition that the two can mean very different things. Under the current plan fufilfillment of pledges is seen in the growth rate of 0.5% a year that is set in 2024. ...

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Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, visits Mohandas Gandhi's Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad on his visit to India in April 2022. After returning from South Africa and following writing Hind Swaraj in 1910, Mohandas Gandhi set up the Ashram during the period after 1915 as the place where he lived and worked in organizing the struggle for Indian independence. This is where he started a campaign of spinning and weaving homespun cloth so that Indians would not buy British textiles in a form of non-cooperation with British rule. By 1930 this evolved into the Salt Satyagraha and noncooperation with British laws in making of salt. The British approved provincial assemblies as a limited self rule concept in 1936-37. In 1942 Mohandas Gandhi launched the Quit India movement leading to arrest and jail for Gandhi and his followers. After the war ended in 1945 Labour party's Clement Attlee was elected British prime minister. In 1946 Mountbatten began the final negotiations that led to independence and Hind Swaraj in 1947, 37 years after Gandhi first wrote Hind Swaraj. ...

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Britain staged a rehearsal for a pandemic called Cygnus in 2016. Till that time the preparations for a pandemic that started years earlier during the SARS crisis were conducted vigorously. Yet the by this time Britain was becoming immersed in the Brexit struggles in the ruling Conservative Party. Prime minister Cameron resigned on July 13, 2016  and was replaced by Theresa May. From that time on the struggles with pro Brexit factions led by Boris Johnson consumed the COnservative Party and sucked the life out of the pandemic planning that Britain had conducted for years before. The recommendations to correct deficiencies from the pandemic rehearsal exercize were ignored. The second failure happened as the crisis approached. Again the Brexit date of January 31 intervened and the months long struggle to get Brexit had taken so much energy and tired out most of the British public including new prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party Boris Johnson. Johnson did not attend the first Cobra meeting of the highest level ministers and military, convened on January 25, 2020, as reported in the Times. Such meeting are convened only for a national threat. Only 5 weeks later on March 2 did the prime minister attend a Cobra meeting. During this time the situation was grave in Italy with rising cases and infections. The entire process was conducted during this time by the Health minister Mr. Hancock who had assured the public that the situation was under control. Britain now has the highest number of infections in Europe exceeding that in Italy- at 240,000 on May 15, 2020. The prime minister and his adviser Mr. Cummings, were also infected by the virus, and Mr. Johnson spent time in ICU before recovering. Queen Elizabeth addressed the nation on Easter day, the first such address since 1940, to boost Briain's spirits. Never had Britain been less prepared as in 2020 when earlier preparations were ditched for austerity plans and events such as Brexit fatigue conspired to strip the nation of the crucial 5-6 weeks of preparation since the first January 25 Cobra meeting of the highest people in government.  Never had such preparation even for 6 weeks been more crucial than in February and March as the infectivity ratio was determined by infectious disease specialists at the best British universities and scientific institutions to be between 2.6 and 3.4 compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 which was somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0. This means every one person infects another 3 persons, compared to about 1 person in a regular flu season. This reproduction ratio and the nature of coronavirus remain a threat today as Britain, Europe, the U.S. and the world reopens.  As reported in the Times the infectivity ratio was also the reason for the mindset that refused to believe that the virus was real because at 3.0 infectivity the only way to tackle it was a "lockdown," and this was itself an "apocalypse" scenario for many in the pro-Brexit Conservative party that won the election, which badly wanted to get back to economic activity after Brexit. ...

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Boris Johnson wins the race to lead the Conservative Party and become the next prime minister of Britain. Several ministers resigned underlining the problem he faces lacking support from the Conservative party members who do not support exit from the European Union without some deal or arrangement with the EU. He will lead a minority government that could fall with the loss of support from within the Conservative Party itself. Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt by 92,153 votes to 46,656. He now has a margin of only three votes with the help of the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and faltering support from members of the Conservative Party who see Boris Johnson's idea of simply leaving the EU on October 31st deal or no deal as problematic. 

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With Labour leading in polls Mr. Johnson faces a no confidence motion in parliament after 53 Tory members called for the motion. No elections are planned before Jan 2025. There are no choices for the Tories other than Mr. Johnson who could hold his broad coalition of working class districts in the north of England and affluent districts in London. Mr. Johnson has also taken England through the pandemic, vaccination drive, and pandemic aid programs to help the UK recover, which he reminded Tory members of parliament.  The partygate scandal refers to parties that Mr. Johnson says never happened but took place during the worst part of the pandemic which have created an impression of callous behaviour and disregard of rules. The Conservatives face another problem in that the US and the EU including countries such as Denmark, Germany and France are moving in a direction that favors leaders who are promoting a revival of manufacturing locally, creating local jobs instead of job shifting overseas, increasing minimum wage, and promoting interests of workers and families. Labor had lost credibility during the Blair years similar to SPD losing credibility during the Schroder years, France's Socialists losing credibility under Hollande, and the Democrats under Clinton-Obama, and a general loss of credibility of socialist leaders who failed to work for the interests of workers and families. Biden, Scholz, the German Greens under Habeck, and French under Melenchon are changing this today wtih a new and genuine commitment of respect for the dignity of workers and families, and women. There may be a sense of unease among Tories about how long the working class districts in the north of England will vote Tory when no investments are being made to fulfill the promises Boris Johnson has made. Yet Tories have no alternate leader and may be stumbling their way into the remaining part of their period in office as Britons look for a new future where the massive investments needed in manufacturing locally and in infrastructure take place to benefit workers and families. ...

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This article in The Times says UK business has already moved to ESG, the idea that business is also about environment, social and governance, ahead of Thatcherite era cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel, Liz Truss and Dominic Raab. This was evident during the Tory conference in Manchester.  Boris Johnson is moving in line with voters and ahead of his ministers who are aware of the changes in the conservatives appeal to voters. Johnson is not attached to any preconceived idea of what the Tories are about. His only concern is to be where voters are and think like the voters, this is where he is happy being. Voters in Britain today think business is more than being about profits. New polling by the Social Market Foundation shows changing attitudes in the Conservative party and its supporters. In 2016 48% of Conservative voters thought it was important to remove regulations and rules for business. In 2021 this has fallen to 27%. Today economic fairness is a big concern. Inequality was a concern for 15% of Tory voters, today it is 28%, higher than Tories concern about removing regulations. Business leaders have also moved on after the Brexit referendum and see the need for meeting a social purpose. Some business leaders think the Thatcherite thinking of some cabinet ministers is "decades out of date." ...

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Britain leaves the European Union on January 31, 2020, almost half a century after it joined the EU. There is a transition period till December 31, 2020 to work out the trading arrangements with the EU. Britain is asking for a trade deal similar to that which Canada signed with the EU recently. Boris Johnson says he would accept a "off-the-shelf" model first proposed by the EU negotiator Michael Barnier. 

The Canada model would mean an almost tariffs free trading arrangement which would include border checks, and which would exclude Britain's large services sector. This would be the ideal arrangement in the British view. The impact as estimated by the British Treasury is for the negative impact on the British economy to be minimal, for the British economy to be about 4.9% smaller over 15 years compared to having not left the EU. This might be offset by trade gains with trade deals made with other countries such as the U.S. and Japan.

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Statements made by Boris Johnson, the new Foreign Secretary of Britain, and former Mayor of London, have gained wide attention in the media.  He has made controversial statements about Obama, Putin, Hillary Clinton, the European Union and written a poem on Turkey's president Erdogan for The Spectator. Theresa May, Britain's new prime minister, is described as making an astute move by making Boris Johnson the Foreign Secretary, as this keeps him  away from the Brexit negotiations, while at the same time including a leader of the Leave campaign in the cabinet.  Foreign ministers of Sweden and France expressed dismay after learning of his appointment. Johnson said of Obama that he was motivated by an anti-imperialist agenda because of "an ancestral dislike of the British Empire," following Obama's recent visit to Britain. Obama's grandfather was a Kenyan porter in British run Kenya. On Trump he says " he is clearly out of his mind," about some of Trump's comments on Muslims. He has apologized for comments on Hillary Clinton. He is in person quite different say people who know him. As Mayor of London he remained popular and helped host the Olympic games in 2012, and setup the city's bike sharing program. He is a prolific author, journalist, and a contributor to the The Telegraph newspaper, with fees of 275,000 pounds a year. ...

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In his farewell speech Boris Johnson, with true British resilient spirit,  says "I will be giving fervent support to Liz Truss and her government every step of the way." Johnson likened his transfer of power to Ms Truss to a relay race. "The baton will be handed over," saying it "unexpectedly turned into a relay race, they changed the rules halfway through." But he expressed no feelings of regret, having come to terms with the arrangement in his own way. More likely Johnson is without saying it still determining the policies and direction of the government, perhaps more so now with Liz Truss and his loyalists the only persons in the cabinet and running the British government. Johnson addressed people's fears about the energy price increases- "the UK would continue to have the strength to give people cash they need to get through this energy crisis that is caused by Putin's vicious war."  He listed his government's achievements- the response to Covid. Some of this is forgotten as the UK not the EU leadership was first to move forward with vaccination plans. Johnson put his government's faith in the vaccine invented at Oxford University and committed early while the EU languished under Merkel and her protege Ursula Von der Leyen. The EU fell behind in providing vaccine leadership as Britain forged ahead early, giving hope to the rest of the world's population including India that adopted the Oxford vaccine. Johnson likened his role to the missions to the planets- "Let me say I am now like one of those booster rockets that has fulfilled its function and I will be re-entering the atmosphere and splashing down invisibly into some remote and obscure corner of the Pacific." Johnson has taken the situation in a truly British way without any rancor and gracefully. With Liz Truss in charge he even gets a break after the difficult period handling the once in a century pandemic, handing over to a younger member of his group, and yet deciding on many of the policies and guiding the government for the term it was elected for to 2024. History will look at him favorably for his handling of the pandemic and vaccination, and for his instincts about the Ukraine war and Britain's unwavering support, and now in guiding Truss to provide Britain with strong support for the cost of living crisis caused by the war. His failings stem partly from his exuberance and optimistic spirit, but nowhere near detract from these achievements. ...

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A Conservative MP crosses over to the Opposition in parliament causing Mr. Johnson's government to lose its one vote majority in Britain's parliament. As a minority government its future is uncertain. Johnson called for a snap election which will require a two thirds majority in parliament and is unlikely if called by the minority  government. With 31 Conservative rebel MP's led by Mr. Hammond former finance minister, and Labour MP's, Scottish National Party MP's, the Opposition is planning legislation to delay Brexit till January 2020. This is likely to happen now that it has a majority. The next step- the Opposition unites behind Mr. Corbyn to form a government or in the event of that not happening a general election is called.  Even though there is support for Brexit in the country it is not known whether the mood of the country has changed in the years since the referendum with the debacle in the Conservative Party. The Conservatives are badly divided, and the entry of  Mr. Cummings running Mr. Boris Johnson's government  election campaign has distanced the party from Mr. Farage's UK Independence Party, Conservative moderates. All these factors could lead to a change in government. The general election is also likely to be fought on terms other than just Brexit- with the future of the country, and a change of direction, becoming the challenge facing Britain, as the damage done by divisive politics and the precarious economy, living standards, begins to be better understood. ...

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Elections to France's 13 regional councils is showing weak support for president Macron's En Marche party that was newly created by Macron. Macron's party won less than 10% of the vote in the regional elections. The Republicans, former president Sarkozy's party were written off after Macron's win. Instead the Republicans who are conservatives and represent the Gaullist tradition have revived under Sarkozy's health minister Xavier Bertrand. Mr. Bertrand now remains the main candidate with Macron for the French presidential election in 2022. Terrorist attacks, the sense of a lack of law and order, and the pandemic, have revived the conservatives in France. Brexit nationalism, the failure of the socialist Labor party and a shift of laborites in the north of England to the conservatives under Boris Johnson led to a Johnson win in British elections. A similar situation is unfolding in France. Xavier has served under presidents Chirac and Sarkozy, both in the Gaullist tradition. He was Sarkozy's spokesperson in 2007 and helped run Sarkozy's election campaign. He was Health Minister from 2010 to 2012. ...

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EU foreign policy is process driven and requires the agreement of 27 countries in the EU, which is called the coalition of the unwilling. British foreign policy is ideologically driven. After the Brexit deal was reached in the last week of December 2020, no mention was made of coordination in foreign policy. The Boris Johnson government has quietly dropped the whole idea of cooperation with the EU in foreign affairs that the government of Theresa May supported. May supported deep cooperation between Britain and the Eu at the Munich security conference in 2018.  Today most cooperation is absent and Britain sees itself freed from the constraint of coordinating its foreign policy. Britain is now free to act independently in foreign policy they very reason for Brexit. It means Britain will negotiate its own relationships with other countries based on what is good for  Britain. British euroskeptics were always critical of the French way of saying France would act independently in making foreign policy and at the same time saying it was working within the EU. ...