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India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal sets out the new Foreign Trade Policy. It moves away from giving incentives to exporters to remission of taxes and lower costs for smaller medium sized enterprises. The new export target is for goods and services exports to reach 2 trillion dollars by 2030 from $760 billion in 2023. The new policy will go into effect in April 2023. India's exports have grown 75% from $435 billion in 2015 to $760  billion in 2023. Under the new policy Indian exporters can source goods in one country and send them to a third country without touching Indian shores. Wider engagement will take place with States and Districts to promote exports at grassroots level. DGFT, Director General of Foreign Trade offices of DGFT will interact with district collectors to push exports. India's Commerce Ministry will also conduct a massive global outreach sectorally and country wise in tandem with the External Affiars Ministry  over the next 4-5 months. E commerce hubs will be established to generate $200-$400 billion in e-commerce exports. India's share of world trade is very low and needs to be pushed up to 7-10% says Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal. ...

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Prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe has assumed the finance minister position as Sri Lanka completes one phase of negotiations with the IMF. The IMF says "Since Sri Lanka's public debt is assessed as unsustainable, approval by the Executive Board of an IMF supported programme would require adequate assurances that debt sustainability will be restored." Sri Lanka facing lack of capital to pay for essential energy and other food needs suspended payment on nearly $7 billion foreign debt repayment due this year with action taken under a new central bank governor. About $25 billion is due for repayment by 2026 and total debt stands at $51 billion. The IMF comments come after reports that Sri Lanka Monetary Board at the central bank and finance ministry in 2021 failed to address the debt sustainability issue even though the IMF in April 2020 had advised Sri Lanka to go for restructuring. Discussions IMF says "focused on restoring fiscal sustainability while protecting the vulnerable and the poor, ensuring the credibility of the monetary policy and exchange rate regimes, preserving financial sector stability, and structural reforms to enhance growth and strengthen governance." ...

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Closest to president Biden in 2024 is Ted Kaufman who sat next to Biden on these trips from the US Senate to his home in Delaware over three decades in Amtrak trains. Ted Kaufman 82, was Biden's Senate chief of staff from the early days when the youngest senator at 32 years started his 5 term Senate run in 1970. He is described by Biden's sister as Biden's alter ego. Kaufman was with the president during the 2020 run for president. In 2009 as Biden assumed the role of vice president Kaufman was made junior senator for Delaware in Biden's place. The other two who are in their late sixties are Ron Klain who was Biden's chief of staff at the White House till 2023. And Mike Donilon 69 years, who is the closest to the president today in his day to day work. He decamped from the White House in January 2024 to get a view from the outside so essential as the mood of the country changes and failures are not so clear from the inside, and  which must be addressed.  The younger group includes Jake Sullivan who the president has used with Tony Blinken to get his domestic policy reflected in foreign policy and economic policy. Of the older advisers Donilon must have addressed with Biden in turn migration and the border, the cost of living and the pandemic recovery residual effects that have affected the middle and lower class, the effects of world affairs in domestic politics. Dnilon says many presidents fail to answer the question "why are you running" with a direct answer. For Biden it is about the preservation of democracy and freedom. Donilon is a University of Virgina law graduate who worked in the Carter, Clinton and Obama White House. He even helped Carter phase into civilian life after his presidency. As chief of staff to Warren Christopher Clinton's Secretary of State. He was Obama's NSA adviser till 2013. He has a treasure trove of experience. Tony Blinken worked under him at the State Department showing the close connections Biden has with his extended group of advisers. This includes Anita Dunn communications, Steve Ricchetti Capitol Hill, Bruce Reed policy advice.   ...

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The US under president DJT puts out a new National Security Strategy in a document which states it clearly. The days of the Middle East given importance are thankfully over it says. The focus is on the First Islands, from Taiwan, Philippines to Japan for strengthening defense in relation to China. The Monroe Doctrine is now part of US foreign policy with a DJT addition- "that the American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control our own destiny in our hemisphere."  It also means the US has a new policy towards Russia and for NATO.  The DJT administration priority, it states, is “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” The new strategy is that Europe needs to “take primary responsibility for its own defense.” The Monroe Doctrine and the disassociation with NATO expansion are linked. How so? Russia's foreign policy is for winning recognition as a Northern European Power with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, being able to control its destiny in its sphere of influence. The way the Monroe Doctrine was implemented in 1823 was by a tacit recognition gained from Britain that it would support the US in its idea of no European colonial powers (France, Spain other ) being allowed to interfere in Latin America, in the western hemisphere. In 2025 the way the Monroe Doctrine is implemented with the DJT Corollary is that the US is tacitly gaining support from Russia/China for implementing the Monroe Doctrine so that no foreign powers will interfere in US sphere influence in the western hemisphere.  Where does this leave Europe and Ukraine? European Union and NATO expansion has now gone too far and NATO which was primarily for Cold War struggle between Communism and US/UK style democracies is over, but NATO has not been disbanded, or a new alliance setup with new goals. Instead as it lingers on it has created new problems such as NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, creating security risks for Russia. This has led to the war in Ukraine and the Republican administration under DJT seeks to defuse tensions and the Ukraine war by excluding NATO expansion, removing the US from European security by delegating that back to Europe (Germany and France, Italy, UK) and by acting as a moderating influence between Russia and Germany, France, that see Russia as a threat after it's attack on Ukraine. US also upholds the policy and principle of no nation invading another country, as Russia did with Ukraine, and in anticipation of the China threat to Taiwan. This part gets nuanced but the overall policy is coherent and Russia accepts this, China is gradually coming to the idea that it has to accept this situation with Taiwan to preserve its economic advances and its exports to the US and EU.  In practice once the interference of China or Russia is removed and European powers in addition, the US has freedom of action in the Western hemisphere and Latin America to prevent crises such as with drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, and unstable regimes sending people north to the US across the Mexican border as from Central America and Venezuela.   ...

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China sees a principal peacemaker role for Ukraine peace settlement with its economic benefits in US/EU trade as foreign policy. NYT's David Sanger reports from the G-7 meetings in Italy in June 2024. He says the G7 sentiment is changing about China in the last few months of 2024 compared to 2023. In 2023 China was seen as a nation that had more in common with the US than Russia considering historical differences between the two nations. As the US veered round to the view China's indirect economic support and its technology was helping Russia in escalating attacks on Kharkiv and the border regions of Ukraine, Europeans were skeptical. No longer, the Europeans now see China's relationship with Russia in the same way. Another change observed is that China is not pursuing a peace settlement participation to end the war by not joining a Swiss effort. Instead says Sanger China is seen as wanting to wait so that at some future date it would be the principal actor in bringing all parties to a peace settlement for Ukraine. With Ukraine facing escalating attacks in the Kharkiv region the mood has changed and China is now seen differently from just a year back. This as shown in the adjoining article in NYT on student exchange for US and China and China's view that racism exists towards Chinese students in the US is affecting the effort for closer understanding between the people's of the two nations sought by the two nations since 1972, and in the interwar period with Gen. Joe Stilwell fighting the Imperial Japanese Army alongside the Chinese people. ...

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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...

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This editorial in the Journal provides reflections on U.S. foreign policy in the Obama years and advice for U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the third presidential debate on foreign policy on Oct. 22, 2012. It says the U.S. has always done better from a position of economic strength and defense preparedness in addressing foreign policy issues. It also points to the failure of president Obama to support the freedom struggle of the peoples of the Middle East, and a withdrawal from Iraq without securing an agreement that failed to consolidate the gains of the long conflict and resources spent in that region.

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Turkey faces a economic crisis driven by high inflation and sharp decline of over 40% in the lira. The ENAgrup research group estimates inflation at 58% in November over the prior year, higher than the 22% official figures. ENAGrup estimates 50% inflation in October and 45% inflation in September. The steep inflation say experts is a result of an unconventional policy of president Erdogan to lower interest rates by 2%. In contrast the Russian central bank increased interest rates by about 3%, Brazil's central bank by about 6%. This report looks at two weak links for the lira and inflation prospects with graphs.  One is that the debt of Turkish banks is heavily in foreign currency debt with $82 billion due in next 12 months. A weak lira makes it harder to pay off these debts. Turkey's central bank net foreign assets taking into account all foreign currency liabilities is a negative $48 billion in Oct 2021, according to graphs shown in WSJ. The second is that Turkey's people are fleeing the lira. Nearly 60% of banking deposits are now in foreign currencies, according to data from Capital Economics. A sudden surge in requests to withdraw dollars by Turkish residents could make banks to draw down their foreign currency reserves. The government hopes that increase in exports could help Turkey in the crisis yet the situation today as shown by WSJ suggests a continuation of the current crisis of spiraling inflation and large drops in the lira's value. ...

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This report in DW.com shows that Germany is only now coming to grips with Merkel's policy to China. A policy that had no idea where the relationship was headed and no grasp of its implications for Germany in the way that Merkel's policy shaped economic relations with Russia with an overdependence on natural gas supplies. It is left to the newly elected Greens-SPD coalition to face the consequences of that policy as Germany faces rationing of gas for the winter between industry and households. Annalena Baerbock, Germany's Foreign Minister says clearly that it is unacceptable that force should be used in international relations. Baerbock told a UN conference - "We do not accept when international law is broken and a larger neighbor invades a smaller neighbor in violation of international law- an of course that also applies to China."  Clearly China and Russia are different in their economies and industry. China is the world's largest exporter and depends on international law and freedom of navigation on the oceans as a trading nation that it has become with over 1 trillion dollars in exports in 2022. It is through freedom of navigation on the oceans and respect for international law that an exporting and manufacturing nation that makes for export is able to conduct its affairs.    ...

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The Spanish election produced a better than expected result for the Sanchez government. This report in CSIS shows that after a brief period Spain is returning to dominance of the Party Popular or the Socialist Party, the two governing parties in Spain, with smaller parties doing poorly. Both the PP and the Socialist Party are vying for support of a majority of 176 seats with the help of smaller parties. The VOX did not do as well as expected and a PP VOX party government looks less likely says this report. Even if a government with Partido Popular is formed it will continue most of Spain's foreign policy of supporting NATO and the EU. Mr. Sanchez formed a new government in 2020.

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A recent study by the IMF shows that China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves that are twice what would be needed for traditional purposes such as supporting the economy in a financial crisis. China is still very much a developing country with per capita annual income of $3000, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. This makes the policy of accumulating reserves and preserving an undervalued exchange rate to support export companies counterproductive. There is growing debate about this as inflation is becoming difficult to control. Yu Yongding, an advisor to the PBOC monetary policy committee says China as a developing country should not be exporting capital, which should be used to raise living standards. A rising exchange rate would increase spending power of people throughout China. Fan Gang, head of China's National Economic Research Institute, was a member of the central bank monetary policy committee. He wrote in a recent essay arguing for a higher exchange rate, and societal, tax and other changes that help increase China's household spending. Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded reasonable levels that the country needs, adding to inflation risks and making it difficult to conduct monetary policy. The reserves are now over $3 trillion, pasing that mark in March 2011 after increasing 25% in the last year....

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As one group of B-2's headed west pver the Pacific, another group quietly headed east to bomb the Iranian nuclear weapons development sites. The intent was to carry out the decision made by the US and the EU and tacitly supported by Russia, China, India, and the world, to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. It is now evident that since the beginning of 2025 the number on priority of the DJT administration in foreign policy was to end Iran's effort to get a nuclear weapon. This is why the US DJT administration brought together Gulf regimes Qatar and UAE, Saudis for $2 trillion in business and economic deals in a DJT visit in May 2025. It is also evident that when India launched air strikes on Pakistan terrorist bases in June the US president DJT ended the war quickly in 72 hours. The Pakistan military head met with DJT in the White House a week back. This was preparation for the plan to take out the nuclear sites with minimal regional instability, a goal of the American people after Reagan/Bush miscalculations in supporting Hussein in Iraq and creating the Middle East wars Americans have had enough of. It may close a chapter of violent conflicts in the Middle East to be replaced with US support for India, UAE/Qatar/Saudi, Pakistan economic deals economic agreements. Much of the Indian media fails to understand this. The job of a US president if done right has responsibilities to the Nation and the World, after all the missteps of his predecessors DJT is stepping into this role. ...

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The riots in Dublin, Ireland, covered in depth in The Times, started with a stranger approaching an Irish language primary school in Parnell Square East, and attacking children there with a knife. A deliveroo driver on a motorcycle moves to the scene and using his helmet hits the attacker felling him to the ground where he is disarmed. Minutes later the scene is replayed over social media channels TwitterX, Whats App, and far right figure puts it in a Twitter account that a "foreign man entered the school and stabbed five people," setting off marauding youth to riot on the streets A tram and several police cars, shops in the centre of Dublin, a hostel for asylum seekers, are damaged or set on fire.  In September 2023 200 people protested high immigration outside the Irish parliament. As in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Utrecht area  housing in Dublin is unaffordable to the locals. Immigration has surged particularly from Ukraine all over Europe in 2022. It is an issue in UK, Netherlands and Ireland. With the cost of living crisis, the aftermath of the pandemic with people suspicious of the state, overcrowding in socially deprived inner city areas Parnell Square being one of them,  and record homelessness; immigration has become a scapegoat. The suspect in this situation was a naturalized Irish citizen who has lived in Ireland for 20 years and is of French-Algerian origin. The Deliveroo driver who came to the rescue is a 43 year old Brazilian Caio Benicio. It took three hours after nightfall 6.00 pm for police to restore order. ...

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This picture essay in The Guardian shows the 700,000 additional people displaced inside Afghanistan in 2021 in addition to the 2.9 million displaced people by 2020. The British stayed out of Afghanistan except for brief forays from concern about Russia entering close to British India. Not much happened till Zahir Shah, the King of Afghanistan was seen as not doing much for a famine that struck the country in 1972. Drought struck much of the country in 1972 leading to the deaths of over 100,000 people from starvation. The King had ruled since 1933. And for a brief period his cousin and brother-in-law Daud Khan had actually run the administration between 1953 to 1963, before being dismissed with a new constitution adopted not allowing the royal family to rule the country without consulting parliament. The poor handling of famine relief led to the fall of the government appointed by King Zahir Shah in 1972. In 1973 Daud Khan violates this constitution and assumes control of the country. British India was in 1972 the India of the Nehru period, with his daughter Indira Gandhi the democratically elected prime minister. India fought a brief war with Pakistan in 1971 that set up the new nation of Bangladesh from territory of East Bengal. India preoccupied with Bangladesh refugees did not do what the British had done to keep outside powers out of Afghanistan and maintain a stable monarchy. Daoud Khan's repression of Communist party leaders led to Communist party military factions in the army taking over the country in 1978. The Afghan military led by officers in the army's Communist factions had little support in the traditional Islamic nature of the countryside for their land reforms. Leading to a rebellion and entry of Soviet troops under a friendship treaty signed in 1978 with Soviets under Leonid Brezhnev. It is this disrupting of the stability of the Afghan monarchy or the entry of Soviets or Americans or any other foreign influence that was carefully prevented in British India by Britain's India policy, which resulted in a period of peace and stability in that region. The events of 1974 with the fall of the monarchy, and the entry of Russia in 1978 broke two of the main rules the British had observed from 1750- a stable monarchy and no outside influence in Afghanistan. A policy the British also followed for Tibet. When China entered Tibet in 1950 Nehru was too preoccupied with the millions of refugees from Pakistan and failed to prepare in the years 1947-50 for following British policy on Tibet by preparing or anticipating the entry of foreign powers. The entry of China into Tibet in October 1950 led to the Sino India border war of 1962, and led to the current situation of India facing a Chinese army all along the border of Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Nepal and all the way in the Himalayas to Kashmir. The result has been billions of dollars spent by the US every week starving domestic priorities, as president Biden observed this week, and a burial place for empires. Ten years for Russia, and twenty for the US with the same result. It has left the whole region poorer and in humanitarian crisis for 50 years, and created crises for Russia, Pakistan, India, and the US. ...

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Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...

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Indian foreiign minister S Jaishankar meets with his counterpart Wang Yi in Dushnabe, Uzbekistan, to restore peace in border region of Ladakh after the violent clash in 2020. Jaishankar tells China not to view ties with India through "the lens of a third country." China agrees. Jaishankar was actively involved in setting up cultural and other Sino-Indian contacts in Chinese cities when he was Indian ambassador to China. Jaishankar also tells China that India China relations set the tone for peace in Asia. China says it agrees with this idea. India's strong response to China's border infrastructure building and its moving forces close to the border line of control, has led to China reconsidering its policy following deteriorating relations with Australia, US and UK. China now sees that it has little to gain with worsening India relations and border issues or clashes, when the US and UK, Australia, are moving forces into the Indo-Pacific region and in the seas around Taiwan. ...

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In Biden's address at the UN General Assembly he talks about climate change and Covid-19, and a foreign policy that brings together US and its allies in Europe and Asia. He said "the next decade will quite literally determine our futures."  He encouraged "competition" but he stressed he was "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocks." Biden also said the US would spend $10 billion to end hunger and invest in food systems around the world.

Biden also increased US commitment for developing countries to reduce emissions to total $11 billion by 2024- in a recent interview Indian finance minister Sitharaman says India has done its work for COP21 emissions entirely without US or other funds.

In a few days Biden will hold a Covid summit where he will call for vaccinating 70% of the world's population. 

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With the change in U.S. position on climate change, carbon emissions, and the move to raise tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. China faces a new dimension in its global relationships. Against this background China is shifting to a long term view of its relationship with India. China's new foreign policy leaders after the recent party Congress, vice president Wang Qishan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, now see the need for new partners in a multipolar global world for the long term as China and India countries with large populations and a need for stable world trade share common interests. Wang steers the Central Foreign Affairs Commission with Yang Jiechi as director. China now sees " a lot of shared interests, concerns and positions," in the words of China's Representative Lu, in the long term issues of globalisation, urbanization, pollution, and concern for achieving stable development with high growth rates.  China now takes the long view looking back at the unprecedented change of the last 100 years, as it maps out its plans for the future. The U.S. has challenged the ideas in the blueprint for development of "Made in China 2025," particularly as it relates to western transfer of technology to China. This has created a new situation for which China is still looking for answers, and ways to come up with new strategies for development without the nearly unrestricted access to western technology of the last 2 decades.  Shared positions on world trade with India and India's close relations with the U.S. add credibility in China's  negotiating positions with the U.S.                  ...

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"To Invest (at home), To Align (with allies), To Compete (with the world)" sums up the approach of president Biden with China. It also sums up the approach at home and overseas. Biden senior adviser, Jake Sullivan at Council of Foreign Relations sets out the framework and path for managing US-China relations into the future for many decades. Here at the Council of Foreign Relations he shows how- through careful study of the relationship's history, the changes in the relationship, and where it is today in 2024. Having participated in previous administrations Jake understood how it has evolved, where mistakes were made by both China and the US, where misperceptions took hold and need for clarification, for action. The old Strategic Dialogue followed by Paulsen under Bush 2000-2008 allowed the relationship to be guided by business interests, -without any clear strategy or idea where it was going except maximizing interests of business on both sides- was continued by Kerry under Obama 2008-2016. Sullivan, Blinken and Biden have built a Strategic Economic Cooperation Framework that has clear goals on the American side and goals on the Chinese side, and work between the two presidents and their cabinet ministers. Trump 2016-2020 rejected the earlier Strategic Dialogue but was not able to set up a sound framework that would guide future relations for decades. Sullivan helped set up a new framework around three principles- To Invest, To Align, and To Compete.   Here he describes how the plan to invest trillions in infrastructure in the US was part of this plan's principle To Invest. On Align it was to derisk not decouple by reducing the excessive concentration of supply chains in China, that was revealed as a problem in the pandemic years. Building up manufacturing at home and in India, Vietnam and Japan. Align also was to have allies Japan, South Korea and India to be aligned with the US policy. It also meant that all three countries would follow the same framework for their economies To Invest, To Align, To Compete.  By combining the strengths of the 2 largest economic centers Seoul/Tokyo with New Delhi/Sydney in Indo-Pacific the leveraging effect of US strength could be felt to support its position. And third to compete on level field so that America retained control of its technologies and implementing exports controls. And sharing this in  open communication with China that the US was protecting its technology and interests the way China has done in the past for its interests. The benefit of open communication even where there are differences had the advantage of not turning this into open rhetoric that damaged relations as had happened under previous administrations. Wang Yi on China's side having seen and approached it with careful study and reflection had similar goals to stabilize and put the relationship on a sound footing. Sullivan met extensively with Wang Yi in meetings in several locations around the world. Ministers Yellen, Raimondo, Blinken, Kerry, were sent to China for extensive discussions as part of this strategy in 2023 leading to remarkable change in the mood and confidence in US- China relations after tumult in 2016-2020 and uncertainty in previous administrations. Much credit goes to president Biden and Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and also to Wang Yi and Jinping in no way diminishing their own initiative, so that for the first time in decades the US China relationship is now on a stable footing. Both countries faced common challenges around counter narcotics, around climate change, and other issues. These are being addressed. Competition is managed carefully and no rhetoric is taking place so that the largest two economies and about 1.7 billion in US and China and 2 billion people who are allies in India/Indonesia/Vietnam/ Korea/Japan living on the same planet earth can have economic and other cooperation  with different cultures, economic structures and systems of government. The result of such a framework also gives the basis for cooperation with America's allies to invest in Africa and Latin America and in the people of these two continents as another level of alignment and investment for a safer better world. ...

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Mexico's GDP decreased slightly in each of the 4 quarters in 2019. GDP growth was 2.1% in 2018. Cancellation of some infrastructure projects and policy changes lead to lower private and public investment and decline in industrial production of 1.8% for 2019.  Foreign investment held steady at $33 billion and the passage of the new North American trade agreement signed by president Trump is expected to lead to better growth in 2020.

Under Mr. Obrador revision of energy contracts, and cancellation of some projects due to budget constraints, led to decline in public and private investment of 5.1% through November 2019. 

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This Explainer by Lisa Thomas-Darbois shows how the National Assembly is elected and how it works with the president and their respective powers under the Fifth Republic set up in 1958 during the Algiers Crisis and decolonization by Charles De Gaulle. In 1962 a constitutional amendment led to direct popular election of the president. De Gaulle was elected in 1965. Though De Gaulle resigned in 1968 much of the work of modernizing French agriculture from a backward local regional basis to a national technological basis was done by De Gaulle, and French infrastructure postwar rebuilding started. This was continued through the 5 year presidency of DeGaulle's assistants Pompidou and seven year presidency of Giscard Destaing till 1981, modernizing France over 2 decades. To get elected to the National Assembly one has to get 50% of the vote in the first round and 25% of eligible voters. In the second round only the top two parties and parties with more than 12.5% of vote participate. A change was made to make the president's term 5 years and have the election of the National Assembly after the presidential election. Under this change Macron was able to get a majority in the Assembly after his election as president in 2017. In the event the opposition parties get a majority in the National Assembly cohabitation happens and the prime minister is from the opposition ranks as is likely in 2024. This transfer authority on domestic policy to the majority in the Assembly with foreign policy run by the president. It happened twice under presidetn Mitterand and once under president Chirac. ...

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Under Mette Frederiksen immigration which reached 21,000 in 2015 was down to a little over 1000 a year. She is a strong fighter for workers and families and labor rights and yet tough on illegal immigration. She has been proven right about this as Britain and the US under Biden are seeing illegal immigration as a threat to workers and labour, are seeing the risks of distraction from illegal immigration doing a serious disservice to workers and families by making it hard to fight for workers and families on wages, cost of living and other issues.  Even with a strong record of fighting for workers and families, Frederiksen was one of the first European leaders to see the dangers of illegal immigration to society. It gave parts of the political spectrum that had no interest all along in workers and families doing well, an issue to run on that would come to cause grave harm to workers and families. This turned out to be the error of Angela Merkel a CDU leader brought up in Communist East Germany, who had no idea of the risks of her approach for open immigration. As Merkel let this chapter unfold it created fissures in Europe, with Tories and Nigel Farage taking Britain out of the EU and laying waste to its economy for 5 years till Labour's Starmer adopted a tough immigration policy and became prime minister in 2024. That danger then spread to the US in 2016 which also suffered as Republicans and Trump did the same in the US around rhetoric but without serious action on immigration till the Lankford- Biden legislation.  That bill would have closed the border with Mexico and ended immigration as an issue forever if passed into law in December 2023, as Senator Lankford says would have happened. Ending immigration as an issue forever alongside foreign wars as an issue, so that a concentrated effort could be made on improving badly damaged lives of workers and families. And on rebuilding badly damaged manufacturing in the US, rebuilding collapsing infrastructure, and competing with better education and healthcare with the large Asian countries China, Japan/ South Korea, India. ...

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Starmer and Home Office say 16,400 deportations have been made in 6 months to home countries in Jan 2025, this is inthe first 6 months of the Labour government. This includes asylum seekers, illegal migrants, and foreign criminals. Starmer is shown at the City of London police headquarters on Jan 30, 2025. 

This says the Home Office is the highest since 2017 when 17,328 were returned.

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Japan has accomplished a remarkable transformation of its workforce and its economy even as the working age population is declining. For years Japan was seen as a stagnant economy with a rapidly aging population. In recent years Japan has shown how a change in policy can work. Since 2012 working age population declined by 4.7 million, yet the number of people working increased by 4.4 million. The proportion of the population in the workforce rose sharply since 2012. To do this Japan turned to three underutilized parts of its workforce and population- the elderly, women and new immigrants. Japan has pursued an active policy of reviving the economy by bringing women into the workforce and breaking taboos on new immigrants. In 2004 Japan raised retirement age from 60 to 65, and then made it mandatory for companies to raise or abolish the retirement age, or introduce a system for re-employing workers who retire. This has changed Japan a lot with Japanese men working well into their 60's and 70's. In the west coast city of Kanagawa which now has a bullet train to Tokyo, out migration was a big problem that added to a declining workforce. The head of Ohara, a family owned company that makes desserts tried a novel method of advertising to seniors in apartment blocks and starting attracting seniors to fill worker shortages. It found that seniors came to work on time, performed even tedious tasks, and brought a great deal of experience. Since then the regional government has started programs to get more retirees and women into the workforce. The special programs teach small companies to adapt to the needs of retiree workers who can work in shorter shifts of few hours and do less physical jobs. Women need predictable hours to pickup children from school and shorter work weeks, for which the regional government program helps companies adapt by sending in specialists to guide the companies. As a result female participation in the workforce, for very long a big handicap is no longer so. Female participation has jumped to 63%, higher even than that in the OECD where the average is 62 years.  Japanese women had a M curve that meant they worked most in their 20's. less in the 30's with children, and more in the 50's. First the government tried to correct this with extended parental leave, increased childcare, and rewarding companies with good work-life balance. Then in 2009 the effort accelerated with employers required to offer 6 hour days if a worker asked for this. Under prime minister Abe's "womenomics" effort child care was significantly expanded- by 2015 Tokyo went from 28 to 38 spots open for every 100 two year olds. Alongside these efforts the Abe government tried to get companies to rethink their assumptions about quantity of work and overtime as productive effort. One could work shorter hours and be productive, and the old notions were seen as resulting in lower productivity. As fathers with parental leave took on more responsibility the changes transformed the attitudes for women at work. Most remarkable is the quiet change in immigration policy. The government allowed foreign construction workers to address shortages for work on the 2020 Olympics. It introduced a 3-5 year visas program for nursing care workers. Two new categories of visas will add 340,000 additional blue collar workers over next 5 years. The total foreign born workers in Japan doubled from 2012 to 2017 to 1.3 million. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Fomer Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says America needs to take up a vigorous foreign policy in his book "Worthy Fights." Both Panetta and Hillary Clinton, and Gen. Dempsey of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Petraeus of the CIA, supported U.S. taking a strong stand in Syria by supporting Syrian opposition forces in the summer of 2011 and were overruled by president Obama and his election advisers because of the approaching 2012 election. Here Mark Landler provides more insights into Hillary Clinton's deeply held belief shared with Panetta that the U.S. had to take strong action where necessary to deter foes, to get into the ring to use Panetta's expression. The U.S. support for action in Libya to support Britain and France comes from the efforts of Clinton, and any lack of followup one of president Obama's errors in foreign policy. In April 2016 president Obama said that he considered his failure to followup in Libya to help the new Libyan government his biggest mistake in his presidency. Here Mark Landler looks at Hillary Clinton's entire career as showing a conviction and belief on the need for action where necessary in the U.S. global engagement. Compared to the bluster of the candidates Trump, Cruz and Sanders, with little experience to back this up in their careers in real estate, law or the Senate , Landler says Clinton is the last remaining hawk. Here he describes Hillary Clinton's contact and empathy for the troops from her trip to the American base in Tuzla, Bosnia, in March 1996. In fact many have forgotten that Yugoslavia is what it is today after the Milosevic years and the ethnic wars with Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, members of the EU and Serbia negotiating to enter EU, because of the bombing campaign taken by Bill Clinton through NATO in 1999 to prevent ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, and peacemaking following the Bosnian War using diplomat Holbrooke to negotiate the 1995 Dayton Accords. Here Landler describes the meetings with Gen. Keane who pushed for the troop surge that worked in Iraq under president George W. Bush. Clinton supported Keane's proposal made in April 2015, for a no-fly-zone in Syria that would help opposition forces till a settlement could be negotiated. Keane pointed out to Clinton that there was a flaw in Obama's policies- that negotiation would work only if the no-fly-zone was used to support opposition forces. By the end of 2015 Hillary Clinton publicly adopted this position. During a period when Americans are weary of foreign entanglements but understand the need to provide leadership where needed, Hillary Clinton, provides a balance between the pendulum swinging too sharply in one direction in the Bush years and in another direction in the Obama years, says Landler. A view also articulated by Leon Panetta, who was chief of staff for President Clinton during the Bosnian conflict and the Dayton Accords, where the U.S. showed strength of purpose in war and also in negotiating the peace without major entanglements....