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Elections in Nigeria on February 16 are seen as a referendum on president Buhari's first term. 84 million voters will chose who will lead Nigeria, Africa's largest democracy. The choice is between Mr. Buhari and Mr. Atiku Abubakar, Mr. Buhari won office in 2015 with his All Progressive's Party on three promises of ridding Nigeria of endemic corruption, fixing the economy, and tackling security issues. The economy entered a recession and then climbed out of recession under Buhari. Mr. Atiku plans to privatize parts of the state owned oil company, a plan which has been received with some skepticism considering problems with privatization around the world. A remarkable aspect of this election is that half of registered voters are aged 18-35, who see their leaders as out of touch. In fact many are supporting a "Not Too Young to Run" campaign to encourage younger people to run. 2015 was the only time Nigeria had a peaceful transfer of power since civilian government was installed in 1999. The candidate with the most votes is declared winner if they have at least one quarter of the votes in two thirds of Nigeria's 36 states and the capital Abuja. Nigerians look for someone who will unite the country as the  democratic process is only now being popularized and planted in Nigeria. This is not an overstatement as Nigeria has Muslim North and Christian South, and 200 ethnic groups.  ...

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Joe Parkinson of the WSJ gives a in-depth account of the emergence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey's politics, with contributions by Emre Peker, Ayla Albayrak, Yeliz Candemir. Erdogan grew up in a poor neighborhood of Istanbul, and became the head of a local youth branch of the Islamist National Salvation Party in 1976 after an adolescent period steeped in mosque culture and Islamic ideas. In 1994 he is elected Mayor of Istanbul amid voter discontent with corruption and problems with infrastructure and public services. He served for four years making improvements. After reciting a poem publicly that said "the mosques are our barracks, domes our helmets, minarets our bayonets and faithful our soldiers," he is jailed for 4 months by a military backed secular government in 1999. During this period Erdogan, described by friends from his youth as having a unique ability to adapt to difficult situations, makes a transformation. He moves to the centre, coming out in favor of stronger ties to the EU, and works hard to attract support from the secular and nationalist voters to add to his conservative religious base. In 2003 he is elected prime minister as head of the Justice and Development Party. This begins a period of ten years in which Turkey sees remarkable period of economic growth during which Turkey's GNP nearly quadruples from a little over $200 billion in 2002 to $794.5 billion in 2012, according to the IMF. It may be partly coincidence and partly good management of the economy under Erdogan. Turkey's previous banking and currency crises before 2003 created a better understanding and discipline for managing the economy. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, and other parts of Asia and Latin America were able to achieve high rates of growth during this 10 year period. Competitiveness in Brazil and Turkey has not improved significantly in this period according to experts, and large capital inflows into Turkey partly supported the credit boom in Turkey. And just as growth is slowing significantly in all emerging markets, Turkey under Erdogan faces a new test. Especially now that Erdogan is seen as autocratic in his effort to suppress protests to build an Ottoman era army barracks in Taksim Square, Istanbul. The fears of secularists in Turkey are that this is the Erdogan of the period in 1999, after serving as Mayor of Istanbul. Just as Turks turned away from the overreaching actions of the military, the public sentiment may be shifting beyond the overreaching actions of the religious parties in Turkish politics. The protests in Brazil against the Rouseff administration after the popularity of the Lula administration, show that slowing economic growth and missteps by the elected government can alienate younger voters. The parties still retain a majority but face an uncertain future in which lower economic growth and missteps lead to a search for alternatives. At the same time Turkey's efforts for accession to the EU are beng put on hold as Germany opposes the actions to suppress protests of the Justice Party in Turkey. ...

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Consideration is a term being used in Detroit auto company marketing efforts, if a customer gives little consideration to a company or brand or if its not on his list of brands or companies to consider, then snap you are not even in the running. The customer does not even visit your dealer showrooms, and no matter how well you make your cars its not going to make a difference. It has to take a lot of neglect of customers for this sort of situation to arise, but its exactly the situation Detroits auto companies face. They are trying marketing ploys such as this one by Ford's advertising agency, but its impact is uncertain. The efforts at GM also focus on marketing but again efforts to put Honda Accords and Toyota Camrys in Saturn dealerships next to the Saturn Aura, for side by side test drives have not had much impact on Aura sales. So a similiar effort for the Chevrolet Malibu in Chevy dealerships has been scrapped. There is even skepticism that a lifetime warranty on engines and transmissions by Chrysler on its vehicles will have much impact, so large is the customer resistance and ingrained perception of American car manufacturers. Over time perceptions may change but it will take a while to convince the American customer who feels he was once treated with disdain, and who will give a good hard look at things before he changes his mind. The figures bear this out. Years of neglect of car buying public and focus on SUV's and trucks is showing up in a 51.3 % share of the market for the American Three companies down from 60% 4 years ago. So half the market has pretty much been conceded to the likes of Honda and Toyota. Actually in the West and East coasts the numbers probably range to 60% and 70% depending on the local area in these 2 regions. So that means more established dealerships for cars, years of marketing effort focussed on cars, sales contacts and so that may take years to dislodge to any degree. The figures behind consideration by JD Powers show that 54% of car buyers are import loyalists, a slightly higher figure than the 51.3% showing that the trend is even more defection to imports in the 1-3 years ahead. And 22% consider both domestic and import cars. With this segment there is more selection in the imports beause only now are the American Three carmakers building up their car model lineups, especially Ford, so this will be ahard fought segment with no certainty that the Detroit Three carmakers will come out on top given the lead and established networks of the carmakers like Toyota and Honda. Only 25% are domestic or American carmaker loyal. A lot may depend on the way a customer is treated from reading letters to the editor in the media by buyers of US and import cars. A car buyer treated with no respect and sincere concern for his needs and preferneces is likely to remember the treatment for a long time. Not just products but attitudes and people in sincerity will have to change....

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National Security Adviser Bolton says U.S. withdrawal from Syria depends on a number of factors, after president Trump qualified his earlier statement on withdrawal. 

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Some of the statements on the IMF Blog on Inclusive Growth raises the question-Does the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, as an American institution funding developing countries, and economists, grasp what people find troubling in 2022? One of the lessons of the economic crises for families and workers in the US and other countries is that wisdom, a grasp of the soul of a country and its people through the thinking of its founders, and common sense, should drive managing of economies, with a knowledge of how economies work- not economists. Some of that is already happening. America's central bank is headed by Jerome Powell who has wide experience and has knowledge of how the economy runs, is not an economist. He was chosen by president Trump and continues to have the confidence of president Biden for this very reason. Some of the statements on the IMF economic blog are- "Why jobs are plentiful and workers are scarce" Jan 2022 "In the US and UK recent labor market the puzzle, can be partly explained by mismatch, the pandemic's effect on women and older workers leaving the work force." The Reality Wages for teachers are depressed compared to workers in the financial and economics industries, in a frighteningly disproportionate way. When it comes to logistics, hospitality, leisure and restaurants industries workers were paid poorly for what is hard work and long days. In case the IMF economists, and economists at companies, missed this it was called the Great Resignation, people simply choosing to reject the conditions that were handed down to them by the financial industry and economists who built the economic structures of recent decades. Women leaving the workforce are faced with issues of mental health coping with added responsibilities of children at home for the two years, loss of income and widespread mental health problems. The word mental health may be beyond the grasp of economists and the financial industry, yet it is the one of the biggest problems for people. Another pernicious effect noted on the pages of the WSJ is that young white men are dropping out after school because they cannot afford college in alarming numbers. Leading to the kind of discontent for workers and families that president Biden is struggling to address. On IMF Blog- "IMF Podcasts: The Year in Review" Dec. 2021 "The past year has brought us new challenges even as the old ones persist. If anything, the ongoing pandemic has taught us to think differently abut tackling the challenges and questions when it comes to thinking about big issues such as climate change, gender equality, inflation and economic measurement." The Reality Climate change lumped in with economic measurement and inflation. The floods, fires, river and reservoir water levels affecting access to basic life supporting water, drought, all over the world are of a magnitude that is missed entirely.The response to a challenge of this type requires the kind of leadership that president Biden has provided for the world with his $360 billion climate change bill as just the first step of many, and  comprehensive policies covering all aspects of the climate crisis. ON IMF bog- "How Domestic Violence is a Threat to Economic Development." "Stopping violence against women is not only a moral imperative, new evidence shows it can help the economy." The Reality Domestic violence hurts children growing up in such households. It is not so much a moral imperative as it is bad for men, women and children. So many things are wrong about it and it is made worse in conditions of low wages and poor working conditions in poor neighborhoods lacking education. These neighborhoods are also affected by lack of healthcare and the opioid crisis and mental health issues. Not investing in education and healthcare in these communities is what is simply wrong, and which the founders of America as a nation, particularly Lincoln, would find appalling.   Relationship between Capital (the Financial Industry) and Labor (Workers and Families) On the basic issue of the relationship between capital and labor, the IMF and the financial industry, economists, and the economic structure they built in recent decades, have simply got it wrong. It violates both common sense and wisdom, and violates the spirit of the founders particularly Abraham Lincoln. This is what Abraham Lincoln had to say on Upward Mobility, the ease with which each generation can do better than the one before it, as critical in the fight to save the Union. This is from the Annual Message to Congress Dec. 3, 1861, at the start of the Civil War. That upward mobility has been lost in the US with ideas that "place capital on an equal if not above labor, in the structure of government," for the last three decades in the US after the early post war period of Truman and Eisenhower, Kennedy-Johnson.  And Lincoln says this about a hired laborer being fixed in that condition for life, or of future generations of that hired laborer facing disabilities and burdens, similar to the loss of upward mobility for the people today. "Now there is no such relation between capital and labor as assumed, nor is there any such thing as a free man being fixed for life in the condition of a hired laborer. Both these assumptions are false, and all inferences based on them are groundless." "Labor is prior to, and independent of capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed, if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. Capital has its rights, which are worthy of protection as any other rights." "Again: there is not, of necessity, any such thing as the free hired laborer being fixed to that condition for life. Many independent men everywhere in these states, a few years back in their lives, were hired laborers. The prudent penniless beginner in the world, labors for wages awhile, saves a surplus with which to buy tools or land for himself, then labors on his own account another while, and at length hires another new beginner to help him. This is the just, and generous, and prosperous system, which opens the way to all- gives hope to all, and consequent energy, and progress, and improvement of condition to all." Lincoln even offers this warning- No men living are more worthy to be trusted than those who toil up from poverty- none less inclined to take, or touch, aught which they have not honestly earned. Let them beware of surrendering a political power which they already possess, and which if surrendered, will surely be used to close the door of advancement against such as they, and to fix new disabilities and burdens upon them, till all of liberty shall be lost." US president Biden has these ideas in mind as he struggles with one piece of legislation after another to restore what once was, to open the door of advancement, to remove these disabilities and burdens that Lincoln speaks of, and in so doing restoring liberty.   ...

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Russian President Putin made few changes in the new cabinet retaining most of the previous ministers, and retaining as advisors ministers who had proven unpopular. Igor Sechin, a former deputy prime minister was made head of Rosneft. Former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, says the adminsitration will be more centralized this time with Mr Putin keeping key decisions to himself.

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Alan Mulally focussed attention on Ford brands such as the Taurus, and the Fusion, to improve quality and fuel efficiency. To do this he sold brands acquired earlier- Land Rover to Tata Motors and Volvo to Geely. Under his management Ford pushed ahead with globalized product development and building a presence in the small car market. Ford still has weakness in the European and Asian markets. In Europe a large number of manufacturers are competing for a slow growing market and price competition has cut into profits. In Asia, Ford was slow to enter the Chinese market. As a result its sales in China lag far behind VW and GM, with only 2.7% market share. Mullaly is investing $1.5 billion on new factories in China, including two assembly plants and an engine plant. One of the plants in the southern city of Chongquing will produce an SUV and a luxury car. Mulally wants to see 70% of Ford's growth in this decade from Asia. The other problem facing Mulally is reviving the Lincoln brand which has seen a sales decline of 63% since 1990. Ford has hired a designer who worked on the Cadillac to redo the Lincoln's design. Mulally plans to cut the 900 Lincoln dealers to 600, to reduce the price competition for smaller sales volume. He is asking the remaining dealers to invest $2 million for new showrooms that will compete with Lexus in their look and feel. Asessing what has been achieved at Ford so far one sees the progress in pushing up quality. Ford now ranks above Toyota in J.D. Power quality surveys with its cars getting higher resale prices than some Toyota models. Ford cars are also being well received by new car buyers with market share up for the second consecutive year. This would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Also significant is how Ford under Mulally's direction managed to make good use of the $23 billion loan secured in 2006, avoiding bankruptcy and turning the corner to profitable operations. Ford earned $6.6 billion in 2010, after losing $30 billion from 2006 to 2008. Ford's challenges going forward are how to sustain profitable growth, manage $19.1 billion in debt and a junk-bond credit rating, and maintain the momentum without reverting to a dependence solely on SUV's and larger vehicles for profits. Chairman Bill Ford is forthright about Ford's history of wasting opportunities during the good times- of "losing the plot in the good times." Mulally makes the same assessment at a November town hall meeting of 200 employees - Ford is good at crisis managment he says but then "forgets why we're here." For Mulally a bit of inspiration from Heny Ford himself counts, this being a poster from 1925 that hangs on the office walls, a Saturday Evening Post cover with the slogan: "Opening the highways to all mankind." Mullaly says looking at this makes him cry....

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Calin Georgescu of Romania who won the first round of the Romania election is interviewed by The Times of London.  An advocate of life lived close to Nature and religion,  who agrees with RFK Jr., and a skeptic of UN and NATO wins the first round of the Romanian election in 2024 with 23% of the vote. Social media Tik Tok videos helped Georgescu come out of obscurity into a lead in the election. This interview was conducted in darkness after a blackout at a friend's home outside Bucharest.  He says of the war in Ukraine that it is not our business, we are interested only in Romanians. His main concern agricultural independence for Romania as sovereignty, which means food water and energy. He wants respect, health and sovereignty for Romanians.  Georgescu is not sold on the British/French/German/Japanese narrative of the Ukraine war, as he sees Putin (and DJT) as patriotic in sentiment. He says Romania is fine in the EU and NATO but will negotiate what is in the interest of Romanians. ...

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 Lincoln's words in 1858 "political matters now bear a very mixed and incongruous aspect" as Douglas tried to be on the side of the free states in the North when he was actually with the South, can be used for what is happening now with DJT and Ukraine, as seen from Europe by European leaders.  Alain Frachon gives the French view in Le Monde. He cites the founder of the French Institute for International Relations Montbrial in his recent book that the problems started with the false hopes and chimeras about the fall of the Berlin Wall. It marked not just the fall of the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe but also of the Russian Empire. And the fall of an Empire has repercussions that are being felt today. Franchon says the liberal order neglected to see in its naivette that peoples are driven not just by strategic and economic interests alone but by passions, that includes their sense of what they had lost in the Russian role in that past of Europe in history. ...

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Republican Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell no's and 50-50 US Senate vote, a tie on Hegseth nomination. Only a last minute change of heart by Senator Tillis gets the 50-50 tie that was broken by VP Vance's vote to get the Hegseth nomination through. Armed Services chairman Wicker in questioning in the Senate supported Hegseth as he faced tough questioning from Democrats Duckworth, Slotkin and Peters.  Wicker cited Hegseth's service in two wars in combat as a Major in Iraq and Afghanistan and the way many who had fought in these wars had struggled and overcome difficulties, the need for second chances in some situations. Other Republican senators said the position was held by others who did not have experience running large organizations. Panetta was a lawyer and Gates an academic who had CIA positions before appointment to Secretary of Defense. Perry had experience running defense supplier companies. Chuck Hagel served in combat in the Vietnam war and started his own company Vanguard Cellular and was a talk show host.   ...

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In his commencement address to to 1000 cadets graduating from the US Military Academy at West Point, NY, DJT tells graduates to think big, take risks and hold on to the culture. He says president Dwight D. Eisenhower who graduated from West Point believed that it was important to think big the harder the challenge, as problems sometimes difficult to solve become easier to tackle when one thinks big at the larger problem. Other advice was to hold on to the momentum achieved in any task to move on to the next step which may lead to big results. And always living with thrifty habits and hard work that pays of with perseverance. A certain CEO of a large bank who has been around almost forever says most important in life is to go out and listen to people, talk to people, the only way to find out what is happening. He also says courtesy and humility are very important. These are not habits DJT mentioned at West Point but are very important in real life along with hard work and perseverance to achieve lasting results. ...

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Who knew that Prince William had actually slept on the streets of London in 2009 to understand homelessness and his passion to end homelessness through affordable housing. There is also the passion of the King Charles to do this another way by building aesthetic, friendly housing at lower cost so that it serves the needs of ordinary people. Around this one idea the deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and  William, Charles have found a new relationship. Charles chats freely with Angela, says the Times in this report and the two have developed shared concerns, as it is Rayner who as housing minister that has to come up with the 1.5 million new houses to be built under Labour's and PM Starmer's promise to Britain. It is agood sign for the new Britain that the royal family can come together with someone who has had her own struggles as Angela Rayner has had in her earlier years with an early pregnancy, as the three people come together to fight homelessness in our communities. ...

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Following the events in Charlottesville where a car drove into protesters, president Trump's remarks seemed to equate the actions of white supremacists to protesters. This has led to strong criticism from the business community with most business leaders withdrawing from the president's advisory councils from the business community- the Strategy and Policy Forum,  and Manufacturing Council. This includes the CEO's of Johnson and Johnson, Merck, JP Morgan Chase, GM, GE, 3M, and other companies. In his response president Trump disbanded both councils. JP Morgan Chase CEO Dimon said of the president's remarks- 'Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country." Members of these councils had hoped to use their presence to have a voice. Yet by August 2017, 6 months into the Trump administration this appears to be changing, with CEO's of many companies expressing the view that the Republican policies favoring business would not matter if the basic consensus on tolerance and openness and what the U.S. stands for is allowed to deteriorate. ...

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This report cites experts in California that mask use was less than 50% in the state beaches and parks after it reopened. The medical officer of Orange County an affluent community near Los Angeles even resigned after mandating the use of masks in public after protests. On one day June 20, the day after bars reopened in Los Angeles County a WSJ report shows 500,000 people went to bars in the county. As of July 17 the state has 365,000 cases and about 10,000 a day. At one time it was much lower than Michigan at less than 50,000, adding to the complacency in California and a false sense that California had somehow come up with a new way around the virus. Michigan today is at about 70,000 cases, showing that careful attention to the process is important more than anything else, not some new strategy or approach that someone comes up with to beat the virus that does not meet the essentials and common sense. Even adversity can be overcome with sound attention to the basics, where complacency and a lack of fellow feeling can lead to disaster. ...