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British prime minister David Cameron tells the House of Commons- after it is revealed that Barclays management set artificially low LIBOR rates- "We need to take action right across the board." CEO Diamond resigns. This was designed to avert regulator scrutiny of Barclays in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.

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Criticism of Bernanke's talk asking bank's to do something to help homeowners reduce the size of their loans even if it meant taking writedowns themselves as ways to help avoid the economic crisis of more foreclosures.

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Note the description of SIV's or structured investment vehicles, and SIV lites which have borrowings of 40-70 times collateral and less restrictions so very highly leveraged. About 23% of SIV assets are in residential morgage securities and half in American ones. These have very little bank credit line support in a liquidity crunch. Deutsche Bank RBS and HSBC were very active in this as well as the Landesbanken which had state guarantees. Compounding the entire problem is that no one trusts the ratings of the ratings agencies anymore. See related article on this.

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JP Morgan estimates that 150 million Chinese were in the stock market at the end of 2007. THese would be in the urban areas and in large cities where the brokerage houses are located. As a percentage of the new middle class this is is a significant part of the urban population. The drop in the Shanghai stock exchange of 46% from its high in October 2007 is going to significantly impact consumption in 2008 and 2009 as savings of the average person on the street have taken a big hit And 15-20 % of the earnings of pubicly listed companies on the Shanghai stock exchangenot involved in banking and finance came from stock trading gains according to experts. If you add the earnings of financial companies and banks then you have banks having large losses which happened in Japan from the drop in their stock assets holdings, and reluctant to lend to business leading to a tightening in credit and a contraction in the economy from another angle. Something similiar to what happened to banks in the USA but in that case originating from a housing bubble. The industrial companies that engaged in stock trading would also have a drop in assets and earnings and thus have less to invest. That this would lead to a small drop in growth rates is not plausible, growth rates dropping from 11 to 9% as some experts say. Because there are overextensions in other areas such as real estate and other negative factors such as rising inflation including rising food prices, rising oil prices, and rising labor costs, and a slowdown in the export sector as markets in the western countries especially in the US go through a protracted slowdown. All these factors take time to have an impact and one could see much lower growth rates taking the pressure off oil demand and oil prices. A similar situation may be seen in other countries like India where the Bombay stock exchange dropped 31% from its high late last year and 53% drop in Vietnam. Vietnam and India may benefit from a shift in production from China as companies try to look for alternatives to the higher cost environment in China but they would still see a significant drop in growth rates before resuming high growth rates. ...

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The effects of the eurozone crisis on the everyday lives of ordinary Hungarians in Budapest. The impact is particularly severe on retirees and other people with home loans that were taken out in swiss francs or euros because of the depreciation of the Hungarian currency, the forint. There is a loss of confidence in politicians, and the government of prime minister Orban is seen as having worsened the crisis by losing international credibility and confidence . Hungary's debt is denominated mostly in euros which make repayment difficult. Yields on its bonds are over 10%.

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New blood at Merrill from Goldman's ranks as Thain tries to recruit a fellow executive Montag from his time at Goldman Sachs. Montag would lead Merrill's global sales and trading division overseeing equity trading and fixed income divisions.

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The WSJ Dollar Index , which shows the strength of the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, jumped up by 22% from July 1, 2014 to March 17, 2015, according to FactSet. Since that time the dollar has risen slowly by 2.7%. Scott Mather, chief investment officer, U.S. core strategies, PIMCO, says the dollar normally rises faster in the period when there is an expectation of rising rates than when the actual increase of rates takes place. Analysts say if the Fed raises rates in 2016 this could strengthen the dollar further, complicating the Fed's rate increase plans with slower increase in inflation. U.S. S&P 500 companies have reported lower earnings by 10-12% in the third quarter of 2015- when actual earnings dropped by only 1.5%- because of the stronger dollar, according to Binky Chadha, chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank. He says core goods inflation would have risen by half a percentage point more without the stronger dollar, meeting the 2% Fed target, had the dollar not strengthened....

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The number of student loan borrowers in the U.S with loans over $100,000 has surged from about 1 million in 2010 to 1.82 million in 2014, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Th borrowers are graduate students who have piled up so much debt in the last decade that 40% of student debt of $1.19 trillion in 2015 is from graduate student debt. A major problem is that there are no limits to graduate student borrowing and the rates are higher because of bad loans in the system, increasing the size of the burden of student debt on individual borrowers rapidly, ironically at a time of low interest rates. This leaves borrowers worse off with unpayable student debt affecting them all their lives, taxpayers paying more, prudent student loan borrowers paying higher rates, and all the time reducing the pressure on universities and colleges to reduce costs for affordable graduate education. This is now a major problem in the U.S. and a major issue in the 2016 presidential election.

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Texas law written into the constitution of the state when it was founded in 1845 banned home equity loans. This was a result of a bank panic and foreclosures of that period when many homesteaders lost their land. The change banned lenders from selling mortgages to homesteaders. Till 1998 Texans could not take out home equity loans. New laws restricted the total debt on a home to 80% of its appraised value. This loan to appraised value limit plus the restriction that home equity loans could not be used to pay other debt kept homeowners in Texas from facing a high rate of foreclosures. Fed studies show that in 2005 U.S. homeowners took out $500 billon from their home's appraised value through home equity loans and cash out refinancing. Of this $263 billion went into consumer spending and paying off debts. This Fed study co-authored by Greenspan shows that 80% of the three fold increase in American mortgage debt between 1990 and 2006 came from home equity taken out on rising home values.

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Italy's prime minister Berlusconi is changing the terms of the 45.15 billion euro austerity package after political protests. He has to weigh what is doable in the political context with demands from the European Central Bank, which is buying Italian bonds to prevent a surge in borrowing rates for Italy. The new measures as the old package unraveled are: an increase in the value added tax to 21% from 20%, increasing the retirement age for women in the private sector to 65 from 60 in 2014, two years earlier than expected, and a 3% tax on Italians earning above 300,000 euros annually. The street protesters in Bolgna, Milan Rome and other cities, protested that the earlier package unfairly put the burden on the working class. The cuts in local government spending in the earlier package would have impacted spending on items such as nurseries for children, drawing protests from teachers. The debate on an equitable sharing of the burden of reducing deficits is ocurring both in the U.S. and Europe, especially with high unemployment and lack of economic growth....

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The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.

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China's efforts to promote trade with India. Visit by Premier Wen to New Delhi. Deals made include a loan from China Development Bank to help Reliance ADA group purchase power-producing equipment from Shanghai Electric Group Company. The two companies signed a $10 billion agreement in October 2010 for Reliance to buy power equipment. India sells mostly commodities such as iron ore and imports Chinese power and telecom equipment and manufactured goods at this stage. Trade estimated at $60 billion is tilted in China's favor because of cheaper manufactured goods imported from China. Premier Wen calls for expanding trade emphasizing the advantages of combining China's strengths in engineering and infrastructure with India's strengths in information technology and pharmaceuticals. His point: the 21st century is the Asian century, and both India and China can make great achievements. India sees the advantages of using China's strengths and cost competitiveness in telecom, power and other areas as it seeks to boost its development of infrastructure. Wen's visit follows visits by the UK's Cameron, US's Obama, France's Sarkozy, all pursuing trade and investment with India....

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S. Korea and the U.S. propose limiting trade imbalances to 4% of each country's GDP by 2015. S. Korea is the host of the current G-20 meeting. Germany and Japan oppose this move, arguing that their governments cannot engineer such outcomes, as it was determined by economic activity in the private sector. Japan's representative, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, said that while he was dubious about the idea of setting strict numerical goals, it would be acceptable to use them as reference numbers. Germany has traditionally opposed the idea. Germany wants to be counted as part of the European Union, rather than as a single nation, in any such reference goal. China has not commented on the target. S. Korea has presented the idea as a way to use more than currency exchange rates to achieve a global rebalancing. And People's Bank of China Deputy Gov. Yi Gang said Oct 10, that China is planning policies that could result in its surplus falling below 4% of GDP in 3 to 5 years, from about 5.8% in 2009....

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The drop in oil prices in 2014-2015 leads to a decline in the value of Nigeria's currency, the Naira, by over 10% in 2014. The Naira dropped to 186.9 to the dollar by Dec. 2, 2014. The foreign exchange reserves drop to $2 billion in Dec. 2014 from $20 billion in 2008. Investment in infrastructure and the electricity grid is badly needed. Imports of arms for the military add to budgetary strain as the government tackles the Boko Haram terrorist threat in the Kano region. The central bank puts out a revised budget based on an oil price of $73, as Brent crude dropped to $68. Like Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone dependent on iron ore exports, Angola and Mozambique on oil revenues, Zambia on copper, and South Africa on mining exports, much of Africa's economy is dependent on commodity exports. About 80% of Nigeria's government revenue is from oil exports, according to the IMF. And the entire budget for the nation with the largest population in Africa is only $30 billion.

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India's central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, announces a interest rate reduction of the benchmark rate by one quarter percentage point to 7.75 percent on Jan. 14, 2014. He had come under criticism from business for not lowering rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting, after the decline in oil prices. Rajan notes in his news release that when he left rates at the same level on Dec. 2, the policy statement said clearly- "once the monetary policy stance shifts, subsequent policy actions will be consistent with this stance." In the NYT interview with Keith Bradsher, Rajan pointed out that more information was needed to confirm that low crude oil price environment was going to last. India imports about $100 billion in crude oil and is a key beneficiary of lower oil prices, at a time when the energy infrastructure and supplies are lagging behind causing a severe bottleneck for growth. The current situation points to inflationary pressures easing. Dec. 2014 inflation was 5%. Prices have fallen for fruits and vegetables since Sept.2014, and cereal price pressures are also easing. ...

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King points out that trade agreements are not what they used to be as most tariff barriers are whittled down. He says more than 70% of imports come into the U.S. duty free, and the average tariff is about 1.5% declining significantly in the last 2 decades. If all import restraints are lifted it would increase U.S. economic output by less than 0.05% by 2017, according to the International Trade Commission. This figure is also cited by Krugman in the NYT with a column saying the Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP) trade agreement pushed by the Obama administration is no big deal. King also points out that the U.S. already has free trade agreements with Australia, Peru, Chile, Singapore and other TPP countries. Some experts see China's success with setting up the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) attracting India, UK, Germany, France and other countries, is creating pressure on the U.S. to come up with its own response in the form of TPP with Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Peru, Chile and other countries....