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Chevron plans to cut its annual capital spending by 26% in 2021 and make sharp cuts till 2025. Exxon is also making these cuts as oil demand has dropped sharply during the pandemic. Other forces are all acting at once fracking has brought an oversupply of oil and gas, and solar and wind energy technology has advanced to where it is less costly than coal. These forces are acting to keep energy prices low.  India is highly dependent on energy for developing the largest region in the world with about 1.7 billion people in South Asia. India's strategy is to advance solar production beyond the current level of being 36% of its energy mix to a much higher proportion by doubling solar capacity by 2025. This new energy mix and low oil prices makes it possible for the region to develop quickly to meet rising aspirations in the region. This also reduces dependence on coal that was used by China as the main energy source leading to health problems, and gives India an opportunity never before possible in history of development with healthy sources of energy.   ...

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The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, one of two safety regulators in Japan, met in October 2010. At that meeting a presentation by Takanori Tanaka, head of the government supported Nuclear Power Engineering Center, advocated new technologies that would reduce risk in the event of earthquakes and tsunamis. The presentation focussed on new plants and did not go into retrofitting old plants with new backup solutions for cooling in the event of electrical failure. A recent article by Hitachi researchers brought up the idea of isolation condensers which could provide temporary power supplies in the event of electrical failure. One such device was on No. 1 reactor at Fukushima (built in 1971), and worked after the quake but later failed. The views of nuclear engineers at Hitachi discussed here show that cost remains a constraint in the design of nuclear reactor cooling systems, and redundancy with several layers of diverse backup systems for cooling are not being pushed by companies building the reactors. See the group articles for G.E.'s Mark 1 system which show cost and easier to build were factors behind the smaller containment systems favored for that design. Fukushima plant uses the Mark 1 reactors. Without independent safety regulation that does not rely on the companies for analysis and solutions, regulation risks becoming too dependent on companies for coming up with the strong safety precautions that are absolutely essential. These safety precautions can succumb to cost pressures....

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Amy Chua talks about elites, ethnic minorities, and native peoples and and the conflicts that democratization and free markets can create in these countries, in her book "World on Fire." Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia have ethnic Chinese minorities and large native populations, and in India there are the Marwaris of Rajasthan and the commerical class among Gujaratis, the Parsees, and similarly in China. And in Bolivia, a white minority that is 3% of the population, and other white minorities in countries with large native or tribal populations like Ecuador, Peru, Columbia, or Jewish people in Latin American countries. In Africa you have a white minority in South Africa. In all these developing countries democracy empowers the native peoples, and free markets empowers these commercial minded elites. There is conflict and tension between the two and the question is how is one to look at this. If one sees it the way one ethnic Chinese person, Prof. Amy Chua -who has written a book on this subject and whose parents lived in the Philippines under Japanese occupation- the promotion of free markets and democracy is an American export leading to a lot of conflict. From Amy's perspective, there is the difficult tension for the Chinese minorities in Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines. But are these countries better without democracy and free markets? And take Malaysia, did democracy and free markets come with an American export after the Reagan era promotion of free markets and democracy? In Malaysia native Malay peoples were empowered by democracy when the British left in the 1950's, long before the Reagan era. And somehow Malaysia has benefitted economically, even as there is tension between Malaysia's Malays, who run the democratic government, and the Chinese minority, which helps run the business sector with a rising Malay business community. With good sense prevailing all the people benefit even as the tension exists. The same is true in other countries mentioned here. Countries like Bolivia have to be seen as a legacy of long Spanish colonization and requires one to look at it differently, taking into account history, culture and place. empowers the ...

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The arithmetic doesn't seem right. I tried 2 gallons a day for a user who commutes to work, for 20 days a month. Thats 480 gallons tack on 1.5 times that for leisure driving and out of town trips and yoy have 720 gallons. If the mpg is up from 25 to 50 then you save the cost of 360 gallons. At $4.00 a gallon this is $1440 for savings per year. At this date June 2007 the price of gasoline at the pumps is $3.75, so $4 is not unreasonable. And improving mpg from 25 to 50 is not unrealistic if you include improvements that should occur if car companies continue to develop this technology. At $1440 you would recover the cost in over 2 years. And its a smart bet for car drivers and car companies, and a smart bet for the US and the global economy to keep gasoline prices in check as China, India, Brazi,l and Russia, and the rest of Asia and the world increase their oil consumption.

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.

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According to the chief economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, his models show that $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase growth in the U.S. by only 0.1% in 2011, and leave unemployment at 9% or higher for two years. Moody's Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisors also point to small impact of quantitative easing efforts of the Fed. One economist said that the Fed's taking interest rate to zero had not worked, QE1 has not worked either, and now its a serious question how much difference QE2 would make.

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U.S. exports reached $2.34 trillion in 2014, increasing by $760 billion over the figure in 2009, according to the Commerce Department. Exports accounted for one third of the U.S. economic growth since 2009, say Pritzker and McNerney. Goods and services for exports supported 11.7 million U.S. jobs in 2014, and a Commerce Department 2010 paper shows these jobs pay 18% higher than jobs unrelated to exports. Commerce Department Secretary Pritzker, and McNerney, chairman of the President's Export Council, say free trade agreements and investment by private business is critical to supporting export promotion, but make no mention of the effect of the stronger dollar on future exports. In a period of a few months in 2015 the euro is approaching parity with the dollar and the yen is now 120 to the dollar, giving European and Japanese business a significant advantage, and raising questions about the strength of the U.S. recovery going forward.

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Judith Warner coins the phrase "dysregulation," for the cultural phenomena that may be behind the lack of restraint exercized in everthing that relates to personal lives like obesity, to the lack of regulation in the gulf and financial crisis. Citing Whybrow's book, "American Mania: When More Is Not Enough," she points to a disturbance in the national psyche, something that disturbs some inner clock or mechanism, that disturbs some inner balance that is built into us from the beginnings of man in the universe.

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Russell Gold's interview with Shell CEO, Jack Voser. Voser describes his perspective on the global oil situation in the next three decades with a doubling of demand in 40 years, a third of which would come from renewables and 10% from nuclear, the rest from fossil fuels. Natural gas plays a large role in Shell's future strategies. Voser sees the potential of China's shale gas supplies being larger than the U.S., with clearer energy policies than the U.S. The cost of producing China's shale gas will be higher because of complex geology. He sees the potential for the reindustrializing of the U.S. midwest with the abundant shale gas supplies, bringing back jobs that were exported to other countries. Clear standards and regulations are needed to make investments. He thinks it will be very unusual if the U.S. did not grasp this opportunity. Shell's operations generate $470 billion in revenues and its capital budget for 2012 was $32 billion, providing enormous scale and requiring careful planning for long term projects in Australia, Africa, Canada and the Middle East....

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Investors compare Goldman Sachs which has retained its trading commodities business with Morgan Stanley which has shifted focus to wealth management and other less risky business. Morgan Stanley's share price has increased more than Goldman Sachs since the 2008 financial crisis, showing the different approaches taken by financial institutions that were battered during the financial crisis of 2008. Morgan Stanley had a change in management after the crisis, Goldman is still being run by CEO Blankfein, showing a key difference between the two banks. Morgan Stanley was battered during the crisis as its share price plunged on rumors in a way and extent that Goldman was not. Goldman was relatively better managed and avoided the frequent egregious errors made by other banks such as Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citigroup, taking fewer risks, leading upto the financial crisis of 2008, though it faced increased public scrutiny in the Abacus case for mortgage securities. It also helped with regulators that Goldman has a tradition of public service with executives working in government- Treasury Secretary Rubin worked in fixed income trading at Goldman, Treasury Secretary Paulson was former CEO at Goldman with strong China connections, and Gary Gensler at the CFTC. Now Goldman gets a larger share of its revenue from trading than competitors and was affected by the sharp commodities price swings in the 4th quarter of 2014. Revenue from fixed income, currencies and commodities trading declined by 29% in 2014 to $1.22 billion. Since the low reached in share price during the 2008 financial crisis, Goldman is up 267%, Morgan Stanley is up 291%. Even as tighter regulation is squeezing returns and banks are required to set aside more capital as buffer for riskier assets, Goldman continues to maintain its focus on commmodities business and trading. Mr. Blankfein and another senior executive Cohen, both got their start in commodities trading which generated about 8.2% of revenues in 2006 when Blankfein became the new CEO. Blankfein and president Gary Cohn worked at J.Aron & Co., a coffee importer, when it was acquired in 1981 and the location moved to Goldman's former headquarters in New York. The commodities business took off with China's surge in demand for metals and other commodities. Goldman's traders buy and sell aluminium, crude oil, natural gas, soyabeans, sugar, and derivatives. Goldman's revenue of $34.53 billion in 2014 has declined from $45.17 billion in 2009, and Goldman has reduced its balance sheet by a quarter. Net income increased in 2014 by 5% to $8.1 billion. But other than these changes Goldman unlike Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Barclays, has not let its commodities trading business shrink. Goldman's commodities division is headed by Gregory Agran and co-chief Guy Saidenberg in London. Goldman says CEO Blankfein, "remains unabashedly an investment bank," and is waiting for economic conditions to improve....

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A car the early postwar Fiat model 500 which sold 4 million cars for this one mode alone, sold 57000 cars in its new version 50 years later motly on national sentiment in Italy. This is happening in the backdrop of new small cars that are coming up at really low prices in countries like India where the Tata model is expected soon. However this Fiat is being marketed in mature markets like Europe and soon in North America. Is Fiat overlooking the huge Asian market? Interestingly costs are lowered by sharing a Polish factory that makes this car and the Fiat Panda to also make Ford's Ka model.